• Gold price bounces but remains in a familiar range on NFP Friday.
• The US Dollar finds demand amid US-China optimism, Trump-Musk feud.    
• Gold price needs to scale key daily resistance at $3,377 to resume the uptrend.  
• A weak May US jobs report could revive the Gold price record rally.

Gold price is reversing a part of the previous sell-off and defends $3,350 early Friday as traders reposition ahead of the all-important US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data release.  

Gold price at the mercy of US NFP and trade headlines

Despite staging a minor rebound, Gold price remains in a familiar range seen so far this week as all eyes remain on the critical US labor market report on Friday for a fresh directional impetus.

Trade optimism continues to keep the US Dollar (USD) afloat even as the recent slew of US economic data disappointed and revived dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations. This resurgence in the USD demand limits any upside attempts in Gold price.  

Hopes of a sustained US-China trade deal rekindled after US President Donald Trump said on Truth Social on Thursday that he had a “very good phone call” with Chinese President Xi Jinping, during which they discussed the intricacies of the trade deal.

Additionally, the ongoing spat over the spending bill between Trump and Space X founder Elon Musk took an ugly turn on Thursday, fuelling a big sell-off in Tesla shares.

Musk said Trump was in the Epstein files and should be impeached. Trump responded by saying that he was taking away Elon’s subsidies, knocking off Tesla nearly 15% on the day.

This negatively impact risk sentiment and revived the USD’s appeal as a safe-haven currency.

At the moment, the US Dollar is drawing support from profit-taking as traders cash in on their USD shorts heading into the US NFP test.

The Greenback holds its recovery following a steep decline, triggered by the European Central Bank’s (ECB) hawkish policy signal, which sent the EUR/USD pair sharply higher, smashing the USD alongside.

Will a weak US NFP report boost Gold price?

The Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data is expected to show the US economy added 130K jobs in May. The April NFP data beat estimates with 177K job creation. 

A reading below 100K level could cast doubts on the health of the US labor market, which will likely bring forward bets for a July Fed rate cut, boosting the non-yielding Gold price at the expense of the US Dollar.

If the data surprises with a reading above 200K, Gold price could come under strong bearish pressures. Strong US employment data would justify the Fed’s prudence on interest rates, lending support to the Greenback.

At the moment, the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows a 54% chance of the Fed lowering rates by 25 basis points (bps) in September.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

Nothing changes for Gold price, technically, as the bullish outlook remains intact.

Buyers continue to hold above the confluence of the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement (Fibo) level of the April record rally at $3,297.

Meanwhile, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is holding well above the midline, adding credence to the bullish potential.

Gold buyers must yield a daily/ weekly closing above the 23.6% Fibo resistance at $3,377 to resume the recent uptrend toward the lifetime highs of $3,500.

Ahead of that, the May high of $3,439 must be taken out.

Alternatively, sellers could attempt control on a break below the falling trendline resistance-turned-support, now at $3,318.

The next powerful support is seen at the abovementioned confluence of $3,297.

Additional declines will challenge the 50-day SMA at $3,262, below which the last line of defense for buyers is aligned at $3,232, the 50% Fibo level of the same ascent.

Bearish Behavior

Today’s bearish behavior sets the stage for a potential test of support around the 50-Day MA, now at $3.52, and the 20-Day MA, currently at $3.51. Weekly support from this week is at $3.50. Despite the potential for eventual higher prices, as indicated by the larger price patterns, bearish price action today could postpone the potential advance. The 50-Day MA was reclaimed for a third time since the April breakdown on Monday. So, it represents a key price level to help determine the health of the trend.

Breakout Above $3.84 Targets $

Nonetheless, a decisive breakout above this week’s high, prior to a deeper pullback, will provide a new bullish signal. That would put natural gas in a position to likely break out above the $3.84 swing high. A rally above that high will trigger a continuation of the rising ABCD pattern that points to an initial minimum target of $4.08. Since the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement is near at $4.12. The two price levels can be seen as a potential resistance range.

Key Support at $3.44

Since the higher swing low in May, natural gas has advanced with two upswings, each followed by a two-day pullback. The most recent pullback found support at the higher swing low of $3.44 and created a higher swing low. That marks a key potential support level as it is part of the near-term price structure. If it is broken to the downside, further bearish behavior might follow. Therefore, it is a maximum low for a deeper bearish pullback before the bullish outlook weakens.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

XAU/USD Current price: $3,348.48

• Trump announced another round of trade talks with China, sentiment improves.
• The European Central Bank delivered a hawkish cut, further lifting the mood.
• XAU/USD sheds over $50 from its early high, yet bulls still hold the grip.

Spot Gold eased from its recent high at $3,403.55 and trades near its daily lows in the $3,340 region at the time of writing. The XAU/USD pair eased in the mid-European session following the European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy decision. The central bank trimmed interest rates as widely anticipated, yet the odds for additional rate cuts dropped sharply after President Christine Lagarde said that policymakers had nearly concluded a monetary policy cycle and sounded pretty optimistic about the economic future.

Optimism further undermined demand for the bright metal after United States (US) President Donald Trump stated that he had a “very good phone call” with Chinese President Xi Jinping, while announcing another round of talks coming soon. At the same time, Trump said the US will have a great relationship with Germany while speaking with Chancellor Friedrich Merz.

Market players seem quite optimistic ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls report, scheduled for Friday. The country is expected to have added 130K new job positions in May, while the Unemployment Rate is foreseen steady at 4.2%.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, the daily chart for the XAU/USD pair shows it holds on to familiar levels, albeit pressuring the lower end of its latest range. Still, the technical picture has not changed from the previous updates, with the risk skewed to the upside. On the one hand, technical indicators remain well above their midlines, lacking directional strength. On the other hand, the pair keeps developing above all its moving averages, with a flat 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) providing support at around $3,295.40. while the longer ones keep grinding north, far below the shorter one.

The 4-hour chart shows XAU/USD develops below a now flat 20 SMA, while still far above directionless 100 and 200 SMAs. Technical indicators, in the meantime, turned south, yet remain within neutral levels, not enough to anticipate a steeper slide ahead.

Support levels: 3,339.50 3,325.60 3,316.90

Resistance levels: 3,367.10 3,382.60 3,394.05

• Gold price jumps to near $3,400 on US-China trade uncertainty, a slight increase in Fed dovish bets.
• Poor US ADP Employment and Services PMI data weighs on US Treasury yields.
• The probability for the Fed to cut interest rates in July has slightly increased.

Gold price (XAU/USD) posts a fresh four-week high, advances to near $3,400 during European trading hours on Thursday. The yellow metal strengthens as uncertainty over potential trade deal between the United States (US) and China has accelerated, technically increasing the demand for safe-haven assets.

On Wednesday, US President Donald Trump signaled in a post on Truth.Social that a trade deal with Beijing is very difficult. “I like President Xi of China, always have, and always will, but he is VERY TOUGH, AND EXTREMELY HARD TO MAKE A DEAL WITH!!!” Trump wrote.

Another reason behind strength in the Gold price is the significant decline in the US bond yields. Theoretically, lower yields on interest-bearing assets increase demand for non-yielding assets, such as Gold. 10-year US Treasury Yields have extended their downside to near 4.35%, the lowest level seen in four weeks.

US bond yields tumbled on Wednesday after an array of disappointing US economic data, notable a sharp slowdown in the private sector labor demand. The ADP reported that the private sector added 37K fresh workers, which were lowest since January 2021. Additionally, the ISM Services PMI report indicated an unexpected decline in the service sector activity and poor demand outlook.

Soft US data has led to a slight increase in dovish expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) July policy meeting. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability for the Fed to reduce interest rates in July has increased to 30% from 22.5% seen a week ago.

Lower interest rates by the Fed bode well for non-yielding assets, such as Gold.

Gold technical analysis

Gold price jumps to near $3,400 on Thursday. The yellow metal gains after stabilizing above the upward-sloping trendline on a daily timeframe around $3,335, which is plotted from December 12 high of $2,726. The near-term trend of the precious metal is bullish as the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is sloping higher around $3,317.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) rises to near 60.00. A fresh bullish momentum would emerge if the RSI breaks above that level.

Looking up, the Gold price could advance to near the May 7 high around $3,440 and the psychological level of $3,500 after stabilizing above $3,400.

Alternatively, a downside move by the Gold price below the May 29 low of $3,245 would drag it towards the round-level support of $3,200, followed by the May 15 low at $3,121.

Gold daily chart

The GBPJPY pair returned to fluctuated below 194.55 level, forming some of the intraday bearish waves, attempting to gather the required positive momentum to reach the main positive stations that are located near 195.70 reaching 196.45.

Depending on forming an important support by the moving average 55 reach to 192.40, to confirm the confinement of the trading within the bullish track, to increase the chances for reaching the suggested targets, while the decline below this support will cancel the bullish suggestion in the current trading, to expect suffering new losses by reaching 191.65 reaching 38.2%Fibonacci correction level at 190.90.

The expected trading range for today is between 193.00 and 195.70

Trend forecast: Bullish

Silver (XAG/USD) followed a similar trajectory, slipping to $34.47 after an early session low of $34.43. Despite the minor retreat, silver remains on a firm footing, buoyed by dovish expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve and a persistent global risk premium.

Weaker Economic Data Undermines Yields, Bolsters Bullion

Expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September have strengthened following disappointing macroeconomic readings. The latest ADP employment report showed just 37,000 private-sector jobs added in May, marking the lowest monthly gain since March 2023.

Meanwhile, the ISM Services PMI fell to 49.9, signaling a contraction in the sector for the first time in nearly a year. These figures triggered a notable decline in US bond yields, with both the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields sliding to their lowest levels in over a month.

“The soft data reinforces the market’s conviction that the Fed will pivot by Q3,” said Matthew Ryan, Head of Market Strategy at Ebury. This dovish backdrop has continued to support demand for non-yielding assets, such as gold.

Beyond macroeconomics, rising geopolitical tensions and renewed concerns over global trade are keeping risk sentiment fragile. The US has doubled tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to 50%, adding to fears of a re-escalation in trade tensions with major partners.

Investors are also eyeing an upcoming call between US President Donald Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping, seen as pivotal for future trade policy direction. Until clarity emerges, risk aversion is likely to linger, further reinforcing safe-haven flows into gold and silver.

Platinum price formed more bullish waves yesterday, to approach from the initial target at $1100.00 that represents a strong obstacle against the bullish attempts.

The unionism of the main indicators in providing positive momentum, besides the repeated stability above the support at $1055.00, we expect surpassing the current obstacle, to target more of the positive stations by its rally directly to $1125 reaching the next main target at $1060.00.

The expected trading range for today is between $1080.00 and $1125.00

Trend forecast: Bullish

• Gold price consolidates previous gains below $3,400 early Thursday.
• The US Dollar bounces after weak US data-led declines, will it last?   
• Gold price battle with key resistance zone at $3,377 on the daily chart extends.
• Focus remains on Russia-Ukraine geopolitical updates, trade headlines.  

Gold price is consolidating the previous recovery gains while remaining below $3,400 early Thursday. Traders refrain from placing fresh bets on Gold price amid a likely Russia-Ukraine geopolitical escalation and some optimism on the trade front.

Gold price appears torn between geopolitical risks, trade optimism

In Thursday’s trading so far, Gold price is struggling for a fresh upside boost amid renewed hopes of a likely trade deal between the US and Canada, EU-US and optimism over a potential call between US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping on Friday.

The fresh enthusiasm on the trade front seems to be helping the US Dollar (USD) attempt a tepid bounce following Wednesday’s steep decline.

However, the downside in the traditional safe-haven Gold price remains cushioned by simmering geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine.

Ukraine launched a surprise attack using smuggled drones to strike Russian airbases on 1 June, targeting what it said were nuclear-capable long-range bombers.

Responding to Ukraine’s aggression, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that he doubted over any possibility of a ceasefire after these latest attacks.

Speaking after a phone call with the Russian president, Trump said: “President Putin did say, and very strongly, that he will have to respond to the recent attack on the airfields.”

If Russia responds strongly, we could see a re-escalation of the Ukraine conflict, with intense flight to safety propelling Gold price.

Meanwhile, traders will keep a close eye on the speeches from several Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers and the US Jobless Claims data, especially after the latest weak economic data.

Data published by ADP showed on Wednesday that the US private sector payrolls increased just 37,000 for the month, below the downwardly revised 60,000 in April and the forecast for 115,000. 

The US May ISM Services PMI unexpectedly contracted to 49.9, following April’s 51.6 and 52 expected.

Disappointing US economic data revived dovish Fed expectations, boosting the non-yielding Gold price at the expense of the USD.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

The near-term technical outlook for Gold price remains more or less the same.

Gold buyers remain hopeful so long as the confluence of the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement (Fibo) level of the April record rally at $3,297 is held.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is sitting comfortably above the midline, adding credence to the bullish potential.

Gold buyers must find acceptance above the 23.6% Fibo resistance at $3,377 on a daily candlestick closing basis to resume the recent upswing toward the lifetime highs of $3,500.

Ahead of that, the May high of $3,439 must be taken out.

Alternatively, sellers could attempt control on a break below the falling trendline resistance-turned-support, now at $3,322.

The next support is seen at the abovementioned powerful confluence of $3,297.

Further south, sellers will target support near $3,240, where the 50% Fibo level and the 50-day SMA hang around.

Challenging Key Resistance

Notice that there has been only one day since the April bottom that natural gas closed above the neckline, indicating a potential bullish breakout. The current and second test of the neckline may have greater success. Nonetheless, the recent swing high at $3.84 (B) is a key pivot that needs to be reclaimed before higher targets are valid.

Signs of Strength

At the time of this writing, the high of the day was $3.73 and the low $3.66. Notice that support for today and yesterday was found around two lines. There is a dashed line that marks the halfway point of a rising trend channel (green) and an AVWAP support line (light blue) begun from the trend high in March.

A successful test of support around those lines the past two days is a sign of strength as the lines previously represented dynamic resistance. It is also interesting to note that the weekly 20-period moving average has been converging recently with the AVWAP. Currently, they each mark a similar support level.

ABCD Pattern Triggers Above $3.84

A rise above today’s high will trigger a breakout of an inside day, while an advance above yesterday’s high of $3.76 provides a stronger bullish signal. If momentum is retained that should lead to a breakout above the $3.84 swing high and trigger a continuation of a rising ABCD pattern. An initial target from that pattern is at $4.08. But it is joined by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $4.12. They should be looked at as a potential resistance area.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

• Silver trades flat but holds gains after strongest rally since October 2024, keeping bullish structure intact.
• Break above $35.00 may open path toward $37.49, last reached in February 2012.
• Close below $34.58 could trigger pullback to $34.00, with deeper support at $33.69.

Silver price consolidated during Wednesday’s session, trading almost flat near $34.50, as traders seem reluctant to push the metal’s prices outside of the $34.00-$34.50 range.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

Technically, Silver remains bullish-biased, though buyers are taking a breather after Monday’s over 5% gain, which pushed XAG/USD from around $33.00 to $34.50, the most significant gain since October 18, 2024, when Silver gained 6.40%.

As Silver makes higher highs and higher lows and has broken the previous two peaks seen near $34.51, the grey metal seems poised to challenge the $35.00 figure. A decisive break could send XAG/USD to challenge 13-year highs at $37.49, the February 29, 2012, daily high.

Conversely, a daily close of XAG/USD below the March 28 peak of $34.58 would likely result in a decline towards $34.00. In the event of further weakness, the next support level would be the May 22 peak, which has since turned into support at $33.69.

XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily