XAU/USD Current price: $3,374.30

• Fresh geopolitical and trade tensions undermined the market mood on Monday.
• Tepid United States data added to the broad weakness of the US Dollar.
• XAU/USD consolidates gains in the $3,370 region, aiming for higher highs.

Spot is on the run at the beginning of the new week, with the bright metal trading in the $3,370 region, its highest in four weeks. A worsened market mood alongside broad US Dollar (USD) weakness boosted demand for the yellow metal. Speculative interest turned risk-averse amid United States (US) President Donald Trump to increase tariffs on steel and aluminium imports into the US from 25% to 50%, starting on Wednesday.

The unexpected announcement generated tensions with Beijing, which accused the US of violating the truce set a couple of weeks ago. Adding to the dismal mood, Ukraine conducted a massive drone attack on Russian strategic bombers’ airfields during the weekend.

Meanwhile, “economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in May for the third consecutive month, following a two-month expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction,” according to the ISM report. The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index posted 48.5 in May, down from the 48.7 posted in April and missing expectations of 49.5. The imports sub-index plunged to 39.9, the weakest level since 2009.

The week will feature US employment-related data ahead of the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, scheduled for Friday. In the meantime, the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the European Central Bank (ECB) will announce their decisions on monetary policy.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, the daily chart for the XAU/USD pair shows that buyers defended the downside at around a directionless 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) currently at $3,296.00. The 100 and 200 SMAs maintain their strong upward momentum far below the shorter one, as technical indicators head firmly north within positive levels, all of which supports another leg north.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD is poised to extend its advance. The pair is well above all its moving averages, with the 20 SMA gaining upward traction above the longer ones. Technical indicators, however, have lost their upward strength, holding on to higher ground but hinting at some consolidation before the next directional movement.

Support levels: 3,380.10 3,397.90 3,414.65

Resistance levels: 3,363.40 3,344.60 3,325.70

• Silver shoots higher after US President Trump accuses China of violating its trade agreement.
• The US Dollar plunges as tariff fears weigh on sentiment, supporting the XAG/USD.
• Silver prices advance above the 10-day SMA, climbing over 3% at the time of writing.

Silver (XAG/USD) is shining brightly on Monday, with prices rallying in response to a weaker US Dollar (USD). With the white precious metal trading over 3% higher on the day, prices have moved above the 10-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), providing support at $33.28 at the time of writing.

Market sentiment and the general mood soured over the weekend, after the US President Donald Trump accused China of violating the temporary trade agreement reached in Geneva on May 12.

In a post released on Truth Social, Trump stated that “China, perhaps not surprisingly to some, HAS TOTALLY VIOLATED ITS AGREEMENT WITH US. So much for being Mr. NICE GUY!” 

Although little context was provided, a Reuters article suggested that the frustration appears to stem from China’s lack of progress in fast-tracking the development of its rare earth minerals.

According to a report by Reuters on Friday, top global automotive leaders are warning about a looming shortage of rare-earth magnets, which are sourced from China. These magnets are essential components in various automotive applications, including windshield-wiper motors and anti-lock braking systems. This shortage could lead to the shutdown of car manufacturing plants in the near future.

On Thursday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated during an appearance on Fox News Channel that US trade negotiations with China were “a bit stalled” and that completing a deal would likely require direct engagement from both President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.

The renewed tensions and market jitters tend to boost demand for safe havens, such as Gold and Silver, while reducing demand for risk-sensitive assets.

Silver daily chart

Copper price opened this morning with a positive price gap, announcing its affection by strong positive pressure to reach 61%Fibonacci correction level at $4.8100, which formed an important strong barrier against the bullish trading.

Note that the continuation of providing positive momentum by the main indicators might assist to breach the current barrier, to expect reaching the previously achieved top near $4.8900, and surpassing it will confirm moving to a new positive station, and $5.0350 level represents the next main target in the bullish trading.

The expected trading range for today is between $4.7600 and $4.8900

Trend forecast: Bullish

At 11:43 GMT, XAUUSD is trading $3357.45, up $67.75 or +2.06%.

Ongoing U.S.-China Trade Strain Fuels Gold Bid

Gold’s strength was underpinned by renewed trade hostilities between the U.S. and China. President Trump announced plans to double tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to 50%, reigniting fears of a trade war after Beijing hit back at allegations of violating mineral export agreements.

With both sides accusing each other of breaching the Geneva trade accord, market participants are bracing for prolonged trade disruptions. The uncertainty has put upward pressure on gold and downward pressure on the U.S. dollar, which dropped 0.6% against a basket of currencies.

Geopolitical Risks in Europe Add to Safe-Haven Flows

Tensions between Russia and Ukraine also contributed to gold’s appeal. Intensified military actions from both sides—just before scheduled peace talks in Istanbul—have amplified risk-off sentiment. The flight to safety has pushed gold above a one-week high, as investors look to hedge against broader geopolitical fallout.

Bond markets also reflected the unease, with the U.S. 10-year yield ticking up to 4.434%, while the 30-year yield rose more than 3 basis points to 4.967%, highlighting inflation and policy uncertainty.

Dollar Weakness and Policy Risk Support Bullion

Beyond trade and war concerns, the dollar’s recent softness has reinforced gold’s upside. The greenback has surrendered gains from the previous week, weighed down by tariff-related stagflation fears and concerns over the U.S. fiscal outlook.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller’s recent comments that cuts remain possible despite inflation risks reinforced this view, pushing gold higher as the dollar weakened.

Silver Follows Gold’s Lead, Approaches Key Resistance

Silver (XAG/USD) tracked gold’s gains, advancing to $33.22 per ounce as of late Asian trade. The metal’s rally mirrored gold’s, benefiting from a subdued dollar and safe-haven flows.

The metal’s strength is underpinned by industrial demand, particularly amid signs of stabilization in global manufacturing, as well as investor hedging against geopolitical uncertainty.

Investors Brace for Powell’s Speech and Key US Data

Traders remain cautious ahead of critical US economic indicators and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks. The ISM Manufacturing PMI, due later today, could provide fresh insight into the health of the economy, while Powell’s comments may clarify the Fed’s next moves.

Markets are pricing in nearly a 60% chance of a rate cut by September, with a second cut possible in December.

Overall, the upward momentum of gold and silver reflects a confluence of factors: a softer dollar, cooling inflation, and persistent geopolitical risks, including tensions in Eastern Europe and Asia. As global uncertainties mount, precious metals remain a popular choice for investors seeking safety and diversification.

Platinum price forced to delay the bullish rally, due to  the continuation of the main indicators contradiction, to reach below the initial support near $1056.00, but the main stability within the bullish channel’s levels that appear in the above image will decrease the negative effect in the current trading, depending on forming an extra support at 38.2%Fibonacci correction level by its stability near $1042.00.

Therefore, we expect to form weak sideways trading until we gather the positive momentum, which allows it to attack the$1068.00 level, then attempts to resume the bullish attack, by targeting the top at $1100.00 reaching the next main target near $1125.00.

The expected trading range for today is between $1042.00 and $1068.00

Trend forecast: Fluctuated within the bullish trend

• Gold price edges higher to near $3,310 in Monday’s early Asian session. 
• Economic uncertainty and geopolitical risks provide some support to the Gold price, a safe-haven asset. 
• US PCE inflation eased to 2.1% YoY in April, softer than expected. 

The Gold price (XAU/USD) rebounds to around $3,310 during the early Asian trading hours on Monday. Ongoing tariff uncertainty and persistent geopolitical tensions boost demand for safe-haven assets like gold. Investors will keep an eye on the US May ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) report, which is due later on Monday. 

The precious metal drifts higher amid renewed tensions between the United States (US) and China. US President Donald Trump claimed on Friday that China had violated their trade agreement. This, in turn, has fueled uncertainty in global markets and provided some support to the Gold price. 

However, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Sunday that Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are likely to speak soon to iron out trade issues, including a dispute over critical minerals. Any positive developments surrounding the US-China trade talks might cap the upside for the yellow metal. 

Additionally, the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East underpin the yellow metal. The BBC reported early Monday that Ukraine said it completed its biggest long-range attack of the war with Russia on Sunday, following the use of smuggled drones to launch a series of major strikes on 40 Russian warplanes at four military bases.

A softer US inflation report keeps hopes for a rate cut alive. The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose 2.1% year on year in April, compared to 2.3% in March, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis showed on Friday. This figure came in below the 2.2% forecast.

No change on copper price’s current negativity by its repeated fluctuation below 50%Fibonacci correction level at $4.6600, besides the continuation of suffering negative pressure by stochastic approach from 20 level, therefore, we will keep preferring the negative trading in the near period, which might target $4.5500 reaching the support at $4.4900.

 Note that regaining the bullish bias is conditioned by forming a strong bullish rally, to succeed to breach 61.8%Fibonacci correction level at $4.8100.

The expected trading range for today is between $4.5000 and $4.6600

Trend forecast: Bearish

• Silver poised to end week down over 1.80% as strong Dollar pressures metals.
• Bearish harami pattern and soft RSI suggest downside bias could accelerate.
• Key support lies at $32.70 and 50-day SMA; upside capped by $33.69 and $34.00.

Silver price turned negative on Friday during the North American session, poised to end the week with losses of over 1.80% as the dollar staged a recovery during the day. XAG/USD trades at $32.87, down 1.29%.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

Silver price trade subdued but formed a ‘bearish harami’ candle chart pattern with bearish implications. Momentum appears to be shifting in favor of sellers, as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has reached a lower trough at RSI’s neutral line, which, if cleared, could signal that the grey metal is poised for a leg lower.

If XAG/USD remains below $33.00, the next support to breach would be a May 29 swing low of $32.70. In that outcome, the next test would be the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $32.68, followed by a test of the 100-day SMA at $32.11 and the 200-day SMA at $31.40.

However, buyers stepping in and cleared $33.00 look for a leg up towards $33.69, which could pave the way for a challenge of $34. On further strength, XAG/USD’s next resistance level would be the March 26 high at $34.58, followed by $35.00.

XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily

The 200-day MA at $3.537 has now shifted from support to resistance, reinforcing bearish sentiment in the short term. While recapturing this technical level would indicate that selling pressure is easing, there’s no clear sign that buyers are actively defending it. Thursday’s close at $3.52 and Friday’s failure to rebound confirm that the market remains technically fragile, with sellers willing to press on if near-term support fails.

Will Cooler Weather Crush Summer Demand Expectations?

Weather remains a headwind for bulls. Updated forecasts from NatGasWeather and Commodity Weather Group show cooling across the central and eastern U.S. through early June. Highs in the 60s to 70s and widespread thunderstorms will limit early summer cooling demand, especially in key markets like Texas. The West remains hot, but it’s not enough to lift national demand, which is expected to stay light for at least the next seven days.

Does EIA’s Storage Build Reinforce Oversupply Risks?

Thursday’s EIA report confirmed a +101 Bcf injection for the week ended May 23, matching consensus but exceeding the five-year average of +98 Bcf. Storage now sits at 2,476 Bcf—93 Bcf above the five-year average and 316 Bcf below last year’s level. Dry gas production hit 106.2 Bcf/day (+3.7% y/y), while demand reached 69.0 Bcf/day (+4.2% y/y). LNG exports rose slightly, but total electricity output declined 4.4% y/y, highlighting weak power burn demand for gas.

Can LNG and Export Demand Offset Domestic Headwinds?

LNG flows to U.S. export terminals reached 14.4 Bcf/day, up 2.4% week-over-week, providing modest support. But global signals aren’t encouraging either. European gas storage was just 47% full as of May 26, well below the 58% five-year seasonal average. This suggests limited short-term uplift from overseas demand, keeping the U.S. market heavily reliant on domestic consumption and weather shifts.

Market Forecast: Bearish Near-Term Outlook

With technical momentum pointing lower and bearish catalysts stacking up—from subdued weather-driven demand to healthy storage builds—natural gas prices are likely to face continued downside pressure. Unless bulls reclaim the 200-day MA and weather patterns shift hotter, traders should brace for a retest of $3.381 and potentially deeper lows.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.