Friday’s advance further confirms a bullish reversal following a test of support near the lower uptrend line that marks the bottom of a developing bull pennant pattern. This puts gold on track to continue to strengthen towards a test of resistance near the top boundary line of the pennant, at a minimum. A breakout above that line provides an initial breakout signal, but a rise above the lower swing high at $3,451 should be more convincing. If a breakout of the pennant triggers, an initial new high target is around 3,578, derived from a rising ABCD pattern begun from the mid-May swing low. Then there is a 127.2% extended target measured from the April downswing at $3,603.
Within Two Weeks
Since the apex of the pennant triangle is getting closer, an upside breakout should occur within the next couple of weeks, or a pattern failure. A failure of the bull pennant would occur on a drop through the bottom boundary of the pattern rather than the top. The fact that silver broke out today to a new trend high with enthusiasm is supportive of an eventual upside pennant breakout in gold.
Behavior at Support to Provide Clues
Next, the behavior of gold around potential support around the 20-Day or 50-Day lines, should provide clues. If the bullish scenario is retained, support should be seen above today’s low of $3,322, which currently matches the 50-Day line. However, gold remains in a consolidation pattern and therefore choppy price action could continue until there is a decisive breakout.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
The above analysis includes the lower price zone that may show the maximum potential decline for the current bearish correction. What it illustrates is that a 31.5% drop in the price of natural gas is not unusual during a correction, as it was exceeded twice this year. However, be aware that the full downswing from the March trend high was greater than a 31.5% decline. Whether the potential target zone is reached or not, what it shows is that there is further downside potential for the current correction. This makes lower targets that are above the 78.6% Fibonacci level more likely to be reached before a new bottom is established.
Rejection at 200-Day Resistance
On Friday, natural gas rallied to a three-day high of $3.42 before encountering resistance around the 200-Day MA, now at $3.43. Subsequently, sellers took charge and drove the price down to a low for the day at $3.92. At the time of this writing, downward pressure remains as trading continues in the lower half of the day’s trading range. A rejection of price at the 200-Day MA resistance puts natural gas in a position to continue to fall towards the next lower target zone for the downtrend, at $2.97 to $2.95.
Strength Above $3.47
Nonetheless, a decisive rally above the week’s high of $3.47 could turn sentiment from bearish to bullish. It would signal a potential one-week bullish reversal. Following a daily close above that high to confirm the breakout, natural gas would be heading up into potential resistance at $3.53, followed by $3.57.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
Gold price rises to near $3,340 as Trump’s fresh tariff threats have increased demand for safe-haven assets.
US President Trump imposes 35% tariffs on Canada and prepares to announce additional duties on the EU.
Investors shift their focus to the US inflation data for June.
Gold price (XAU/USD) extends its winning streak for the third trading day on Friday. The yellow metal jumps to near $3,340 as demand for safe-haven assets has increased after United States (US) President Donald Trump threatens to increase the blanket levy to “15% or 20%” from 10% announced on so-called “Liberation Day” on April 2.
Fresh tariff threats from US President Trump have jolted demand for riskier assets across the globe. On Thursday, Trump said in a telephone interview with NBC News that he could announce 15% or 20% tariffs on nations that have failed to close a deal during the 90-day reciprocal tariff pause period.
“We’re just going to say all of the remaining countries are going to pay, whether it’s 20% or 15%. We’ll work that out now,” Trump said.
On Thursday, Trump also announced 35% tariffs on Canada and stated that he will reveal additional duties on imports from the European Union (EU) today or tomorrow.
Trade tensions between the US and the EU are expected to disrupt global trade, considering the size of business between both economies.
Going forward, the next major trigger for the Gold price will be the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June, which will be released on Tuesday. Theoretically, Gold outperforms in a high-inflation environment.
Gold technical analysis
Gold price recovers to near the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around $3,330. The precious metal stays below the Ascending Triangle formation on a daily timeframe.
Theoretically, a breakdown of the asset below the upward-sloping trendline of the above-mentioned chart pattern, which is placed from the April 7 low of $2,957, results in a sharp downfall. The horizontal resistance of the chart formation is plotted from the April 22 high around $3,500.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates inside the 40.00-60.00 range, indicating a sideways trend.
Looking down, the Gold price would fall towards the round-level support of $3,200 and the May 15 low at $3,121, if it breaks below the May 29 low of $3,245
Alternatively, the Gold price will enter an uncharted territory if it breaks above the psychological level of $3,500 decisively. Potential resistances would be $3,550 and $3,600.
Gold daily chart
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Since a dashed resistance trendline is close to crossing a lower solid rising trendline, volatility should expand soon as one of the lines will be broken by July 18. Those lines form a small symmetrical triangle. Their convergence shows volatility declining, which can also be seen in the 20-Day MA and 50-Day MA moving closer to one another.
Correction Reflecting Underlying Strength
Gold is trading within a pennant consolidation pattern around the highs of the long-term bull trend. It indicates the potential for an upside breakout, with a likely new record high to follow. Following the $3,500 record high in April, gold weakened with a bearish retracement. Support for the decline was seen at around both a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and the 50-Day MA. The bounce off the 50-Day line retained the integrity of the uptrend, and buyers taking back control near the Fibonacci level reflected strong demand.
Upside Breakout Anticipated
The pennant is a trend continuation pattern, so the expectation is for an eventual upside breakout. That would first be indicated on a rally above the top boundary line for the pattern, with higher conviction on a sustained rally above a lower swing high at $3,451. A daily close above that level will confirm that breakout.
However, given the relationship to resistance around the dashed downtrend line and the closeness to the small triangle apex, an upside breakout could be coming soon. When multiple indicators come together to identify a similar price level during at the time that a breakout could happen, there can be a more significant reaction in price.
Above $3,346 Points Higher
Nonetheless, a decisive bullish short-term reversal is not triggered until a minor swing high of $3,366 is exceeded. Earlier signs of strength will be on a rally above today’s high, followed by a breakout above a three-day range at $3,346. On the downside, a drop below $3,283 indicates a failure of the bull pattern.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
Copper price remains stable until this moment within the bullish track, taking advantage of the stability of the extra support at the $5.3200 level, attempting to gather the required extra positive momentum to resume the rise in the near period, reminding you that the initial main stations are stable near $5.7200 reaching the resistance of the bullish channel at $6.0400.
The decline below the support and providing a negative close, so that will force it to form bearish correctional trading, which forces it to suffer some losses by reaching $5.095 and $4.7600 to resume the bullish attack.
The expected trading range for today is between $5.3500 and $5.7200
Although natural gas is rebounding today, its reaction to upcoming resistance will be more telling about the potential future. Possible resistance around the 200-Day MA, now at $3.43, is the first price area to consider. But it can be combined with Monday’s high of $3.47 and the 50-Day MA, now at $3.53, to establish a price zone.
The moving average is being referred to recognizing that it is generally less useful in a consolidation environment since it is a trending indicator. That is because the AVWAP line measured from the April swing low is pointing to the same price level currently. And the 20-Day MA is heading towards a convergence with those lines as well.
Key Resistance at $3.57
Nevertheless, it looks like an interim lower swing high of $3.57 is the next higher potential resistance of level with the most significance. This is because the downtrend price structure of the second leg down from the June swing high will be violated. Further, a rally above that high will follow an advance above the lower potential resistance levels mentioned above.
Distribution Risk Rises
There were enough bearish signals recently to consider the potential for a lower target zone to be reached following a bounce. Several indicators point to a possible lower target of significance around an AVWAP level at $2.96. That price area is near a long-term uptrend (purple) started from the April 2024 low. It has potential significance given its long-term position and the fact that it is the lower line of a rising trend channel. Since resistance around the top channel line was confirmed by the decline that followed the March trend high, the lower channel line becomes a potential target.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
The (silver) price rose in its last intraday trading, due to its lean on the critical support level at $36.30, providing more of the positive momentum that assisted it to settle, especially with the beginning of positive overlapping signals appearance on the (RSI), after reaching exaggerated oversold levels compared by the price move, indicating the beginning of forming positive divergence, which will intensifies the positive pressures, amid the dominance of the main bullish trend on the short-term basis and its trading alongside a bias line.
One way to think about the current rally is in relationship to the sharp decline that followed the April lower swing high due to similar volatility. The total decline, from high to low, was $17.25, while the current advance when measured from the higher swing low (C) from May 1, was $17.03. Once there is similarity to a prior swing there is the potential for resistance, in this case. Moreover, notice how resistance was seen recently at a top rising parallel trend line. The line parallels the uptrend line that starts from the higher swing low in May and shows symmetry within a rising trend channel.
Resistance Persists
Today’s high provided a third daily test of the line and resistance was seen once again. Once symmetry in the rising channel is confirmed, there is the potential for a pullback or bearish reversal. A decline below Thursday’s low of $74.02 will trigger the bearish shooting star candle and a one-day bearish reversal off identified resistance.
Key support is the 200-Day MA, now at $69.02, while a minimum decline is anticipated to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $70.65. Watch the 200-Day line along with a 50% retracement level at $68.64. Another area to watch for early support is around an AVWAP level at $72.24. It is potentially significant since it is anchored long-term, starting at the April 2024 swing high day.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
Rallying US equities undermine demand for the bright metal.
Hawkish comments from Fed officials and risks of higher rates hit Gold.
XAU/USD retreated from around $3,300 and gains downward traction.
Gold price advanced throughout the first half of the day, but retreated in the American session, towards the current $3,310 a troy ounce area. The XAU/USD advanced on broad US Dollar (USD) weakness, a consequence of the latest United States (US) President Donald Trump round of letters.
Trump announced another series of levies through Truth Social on Wednesday, including a fresh 50% tariff on all copper imports starting August 1, while threatened Brazil with a 50% tax, accusing the country of unfair trade practices and of conducting a “which hunt” against former President Jair Bolsonaro.
The mood, however, changed after Wall Street’s opening, with US indexes rallying and weighing on the safe-haven metal. The USD in the meantime, trades mixed across the FX board, firmer against high-yielding rivals, yet falling vs commodity-linked ones.
Meanwhile, hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) headlines add to Gold weakness. Following the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting Minutes on Wednesday, showing policymakers are in no rush to cut rates, came comments from St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem. Musalem noted that the economy is in a good place, but highlighted the risks from tariffs. He noted he expect the effects of tariffs to show on upcoming June data, adding a clearer picture could be seen in the summer.
Finally, JP Morgan CEO, Jamie Dimon, said he would price in a 40%-50% chance of higher US interest rates, adding he believes markets are underestimating the risk of higher US rates.
XAU/USD short-term technical outlook
The daily chart shows that the XAU/USD pair struggles around its daily opening, while still trading between Fibonacci levels. The pair is currently below the 38.2% retracement of the June slide at around $3,325, failing on an early attempt to run beyond the level. The next Fibonacci support, comes at 3,295.50. Other than that, the pair keeps developing below a mildly bearish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently at around $3,350, while technical indicators remain lifeless just below their midlines.
The near-term picture hints at lower lows ahead. In the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD is piercing a directionless 20 SMA, while the upside remains contained by a bearish 100 SMA in the $3,330 region. Finally, technical indicators gain downward traction within negative levels, reflecting the ongoing slide rather than anticipating another leg lower.
Support levels: 3,295.50 3,287.40 3,274.50
Resistance levels: 3,325.00 3,350.00 3,373.40
US-China Trade War FAQs
Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living.
An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies.
The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.
European storage levels are also supportive for supply confidence, with stocks at 61% capacity compared to a five-year seasonal average of 70%.
How Do Production and Power Demand Factor Into the Outlook?
Lower-48 dry gas production remains strong at 105.3 Bcf/day (+3.6% y/y), while demand fell to 77.5 Bcf/day (-8.6% y/y), highlighting the near-term oversupply environment.
LNG net flows to U.S. export terminals stand at 15.0 Bcf/day (+0.9% w/w), maintaining steady export demand but insufficient to fully offset domestic oversupply.
Meanwhile, the Edison Electric Institute reported a +1% y/y increase in U.S. electricity output last week, reflecting a positive driver for baseline natural gas demand from utilities, although not enough to overshadow the cooler weather risk.
Market Forecast: Bearish Bias Holding
The near-term outlook remains bearish for natural gas, with the combination of cooler weather forecasts, strong production, and above-average storage builds outweighing steady export and power demand.
A move below $3.149 would reinforce downside momentum toward $2.885, while resistance near $3.574 and the $3.794–$3.800 zone will likely cap rallies unless weather models turn materially hotter.
Traders should remain cautious, with a bearish bias favored into the EIA data release and early next week’s trade.
