The market remains above the long-term pivot at $65.38, supported further by the 200-day moving average at $63.99 and the 50-day at $62.10. The crossover of the 200-day above the 50-day signals a bullish bias in the broader trend. Price action continues to consolidate within this structure, awaiting a breakout catalyst.

Ongoing pressure on Russian crude flows raises geopolitical risk premium

Traders are closely tracking U.S. President Donald Trump’s tightened ultimatum on Russia, demanding progress toward ending the war in Ukraine within 10 to 12 days. The administration is threatening 100% secondary tariffs on countries continuing to trade Russian oil, a move aimed squarely at China and India—Moscow’s largest customers.

Analysts at JP Morgan expect India to comply with U.S. demands, potentially displacing 2.3 million bpd of Russian barrels. China, on the other hand, is unlikely to bend, raising the risk of tariff escalation. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that China could face significant duties if it maintains its Russian crude intake.

PVM’s John Evans noted that any resulting gap in global supply would take time to fill, even if Saudi Arabia and OPEC step in. This lag adds further support to near-term prices. Vanda Insights estimates a $4–$5 per barrel risk premium is already baked in.

Mexican exports drop sharply as Pemex prioritizes domestic refining

Adding to supply-side pressure, Mexico’s Pemex slashed exports by 39% year-over-year in June, down to 458,103 bpd—the lowest monthly volume since records began in 1990. The drop aligns with Mexico’s ongoing push for energy “sovereignty,” prioritizing domestic refining. Output remains constrained at 1.6 million bpd, well below the company’s stated goal of 1.8 million.

Pemex also reduced refined product imports by 38% last month as its new Olmeca refinery absorbed more feedstock. While the company aims to boost production via private partnerships, execution remains limited.

Falling Wedge Breakout Signals Near-Term Upside

Price action confirmed a breakout of a small falling wedge pattern. The initial target from the wedge points to the start of the pattern at the recent swing high of $3,409. A move through that level may lead to testing resistance along the top boundary of a symmetrical triangle consolidation. Traders should watch how gold reacts near $3,409, as it may either encounter resistance or signal a further upside breakout.

Momentum and Swing High Levels

The current short-term upswing began at the recent swing low (C), suggesting momentum may not yet be strong enough to breach the triangle boundary decisively. A daily close above $3,439 would serve as a more definitive breakout trigger, confirming a sustained bullish move. Until that occurs, any advance should be viewed with caution, as breakouts are prone to failure without follow-through confirmation.

Weekly and Monthly Outlook

A breakout above this week’s high would trigger a weekly reversal and add to bullish momentum for gold. Conversely, a drop below $3,268 would undermine the short-term bullish case. On the monthly chart, gold is positioned to potentially end the period at its highest-ever monthly close. Even without a triangle breakout, such a close would be a strong bullish signal for the medium-term trend.

Key Levels for Traders

Traders should monitor $3,409 as the initial upside target and $3,439 as the confirmed breakout level. Support near $3,268 remains critical to watch for potential downside risk. Until either a clear breakout or a failure occurs, gold is in a decision zone that could define the next major directional move.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Consolidation Breakdown Drives Weakness

Recent price action shows that natural gas was never able to push through the short downtrend line created during the declining consolidation phase. That failure left the market exposed, and when long-term support finally gave way after multiple tests, it triggered a decisive shift lower. Momentum has since accelerated, reinforcing the dominance of sellers.

Downside Targets Come into View

The next measured move lower is defined by a falling ABCD pattern, which projects to $2.63. However, given the strength of the decline, that level may offer little more than a temporary pause. A more significant confluence of support lies below, between $2.54 and $2.51. This zone combines both Fibonacci projections and prior swing activity, making it an important area where traders may watch for stabilization or reversal signals.

Channel and Trendline Considerations

Natural gas continues to trade beneath the midline of a descending trend channel. This positioning keeps pressure directed toward the channel’s lower boundary, which aligns closely with the $2.54 area. Adding weight to this outlook is a declining trendline drawn from the 2023 peak, which could converge with price zone if weakness extends further. The overlap of channel and trendline support makes the lower zone technically significant.

Weekly Outlook Reinforces Bearish Bias

The weekly chart is turning decisively negative. A close near the lows of the week underscores sustained selling pressure and the lack of meaningful buying interest. Long candles at trend lows often indicate exhaustion, but so far, the bears are clearly in chart. This leaves natural gas vulnerable to additional declines in the near term.

What Bulls Need to See

For buyers to regain conviction, natural gas would need to reclaim $2.85, the interim swing high from Thursday. Only a decisive and sustained move above that level would begin to challenge the prevailing bearish structure. Until then, the path of least resistance remains lower, with traders watching for reactions at deeper support.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

The GBPJPY pair provided temporary positive trading, attempting to recover some of its losses by its rally to 199.35, to begin declining affected by stochastic negativity, approaching from 20 level as appears in the above image.

The attempts of forming an extra barrier at 199.60 level confirms the price confinement within the bearish track, to keep preferring the negative attempts, that might target 198.20 reaching 197.45, to face 61.8%Fibonacci correctional level.

The expected trading range for today is between 198.20 and 199.40

Trend forecast: Bearish

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Surges Above $3,370 as Fed Pivot Bets Rise

Spot and Futures Prices Fuel the Forecast

Gold (XAU/USD) extended its rally on Friday, climbing 1% to $3,372.60 per ounce in spot trading while U.S. futures reached $3,416.90, their strongest close in nearly two weeks. December futures (GC=F) opened at $3,383.30, up from Thursday’s $3,336.90, and have gained 35.1% year-on-year from $2,504.10. The latest rebound comes as Powell’s Jackson Hole speech strengthened bets for a 25 basis point Fed cut in September, with CME FedWatch placing odds at 90%, compared to 75% just a day earlier. The softer dollar, down 0.7% on the DXY, and cooling Treasury yields reinforced bullion’s safe-haven appeal.

Key Technical Levels for XAU/USD

Gold’s trajectory is defined by pivotal chart levels. Immediate resistance stands at $3,400, a threshold that, if broken, opens the door toward $3,452 and $3,500. Support rests at $3,353, with deeper cushions at $3,319 and $3,300. The 50-day EMA around $3,344–$3,348 is being closely tracked as a pivot zone. Bulls argue that a sustained move above this band would solidify momentum and confirm an extension toward new highs, while a break below $3,350 risks exposing July’s lows.

Powell’s Policy Shift Shapes Gold Outlook

At Jackson Hole, Powell acknowledged a “challenging situation” for the Fed, with inflation still sticky yet labor market momentum showing cracks. Jobless claims hit 235,000, their highest since 2021, and continuing claims reached 1.972 million. Powell admitted the balance of risks has shifted, giving the market confidence that the Fed is moving closer to an easing cycle. Still, dissent remains: Cleveland’s Beth Hammack and Kansas City’s Jeffrey Schmid cautioned that inflation risks persist, while Atlanta Fed’s Raphael Bostic forecast just one rate cut in 2025, highlighting internal divisions. Despite the hawkish pushback, traders focused on Powell’s softer tone.

Global Demand and Regional Market Dynamics

Regional markets highlight the sensitivity of physical gold to local currencies. In the Philippines, prices eased to ₱6,112.34 per gram from ₱6,132.23, with a troy ounce fetching ₱190,130.30. Thailand saw gold flows affecting the baht, with stronger exports lifting the currency. These trends underscore gold’s dual role as both an inflation hedge and a currency stabilizer, particularly in Asia, where households frequently turn to bullion as a store of value during volatility.

Geopolitics and Treasury Market Support

Geopolitical risk continues to underpin demand. Russia renewed its demands on Ukraine regarding Donbas and NATO restrictions, boosting safe-haven positioning. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury yields remain capped, with the 10-year at 4.328% and real yields near 1.978%, still favorable for gold. Dollar weakness against the euro and pound added to the bullish backdrop, while USD/JPY’s retreat reflected broader unwinding of long-dollar trades.

Institutional Forecasts Extend Bullish Case

Banks and funds remain firmly positive. Goldman Sachs projects $3,700 by end-2025, citing relentless central bank buying and tariff uncertainty. UBS and Citi echoed upside potential as Fed cuts draw closer. Central bank accumulation remains a key driver, with purchases at 50-year highs since January. On a structural level, Crescat Capital estimated that a revaluation of U.S. gold reserves relative to liabilities could justify astronomical prices between $25,000 and $55,000 per ounce — far from tactical reality but a reminder of bullion’s underlying leverage.

Silver, Platinum, and Cross-Metal Flows

Silver (SI=F) surged 2.2% to $39.01, nearing its July peak of $39.91. Platinum added 0.7% to $1,362.90, and palladium advanced 1.4% to $1,125.53. Silver’s outperformance in percentage terms suggests investors are broadening exposure to the precious metals complex, using gold’s breakout as a signal to diversify into correlated assets.

Retail Trends: From India Jewelry to Costco Gold Bars

Physical demand in India remains restrained due to high prices, though festival season may revive buying. In the U.S., gold’s mainstream reach expanded as Costco (COST) reported outsized demand for gold bars, silver coins, and platinum. With all three products up more than 22% YTD, retail penetration shows how bullion is becoming embedded in household wealth strategies beyond institutional and central bank demand.

Trading Strategy and Verdict for XAU/USD

The gold price forecast hinges on whether XAU/USD clears the $3,400 ceiling. A confirmed break higher signals a buy, targeting $3,452 and $3,500. If momentum stalls and $3,350 gives way, a tactical pullback toward $3,319 is likely. With Fed cuts looming, dollar softness, and robust central bank purchases, the structural case remains bullish, and the recommendation is Buy on dips toward $3,350 while maintaining upside exposure to $3,500.

That’s TradingNEWS

The (ETHUSD) price rose in its last intraday trading, attempting to offload some of its clear oversold on the (RSI), especially with the emergence of the positive signals from there, amid the dominance of the bearish correctional trend on the short-term basis, and its trading alongside a supportive bias line for this track, with the continuation of the negative pressure that comes from its trading below EMA50, intensifying the negative pressure around the price, and prevents the price recovery on the near-term basis.

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The U.S. dollar index edged up 0.1% to 98.71, near a two-week high, as markets reassessed the probability of a September rate cut. A firmer dollar makes gold more expensive for holders of other currencies, pressuring the metal lower. The euro and British pound both slipped to their weakest levels since early August, while the yen weakened to 148.56 per dollar.

UBS strategist Giovanni Staunovo attributed the dip in gold to the firmer dollar and increasing uncertainty around the Fed’s next move. Futures markets, using CME’s FedWatch tool, show a 71-73% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut in September—down from 85.4% just one week ago.

Mixed Fed Messaging Keeps Markets on Edge

Federal Reserve officials sent conflicting signals this week. Some expressed caution about easing policy too soon, while others left the door open for a rate cut. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee referred to the upcoming FOMC meeting as “live,” while emphasizing mixed data and inflation concerns.

Labor market data remains soft, with last week’s jobless claims rising the most in nearly three months. But inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target, adding to policy uncertainty. Powell’s speech at 10:00 a.m. EDT is expected to clarify how the Fed will balance inflation risks against a cooling labor market.

Treasury Yields Hold Steady as Market Awaits Fed Guidance

The (ETHUSD) price rose in its last intraday trading, attempting to offload some of its clear oversold on the (RSI), especially with the emergence of the positive signals from there, amid the dominance of the bearish correctional trend on the short-term basis, and its trading alongside a supportive bias line for this track, with the continuation of the negative pressure that comes from its trading below EMA50, intensifying the negative pressure around the price, and prevents the price recovery on the near-term basis.

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Breakout Validation Still Pending

The wedge pattern formed within a broader consolidation formation rather than a clear uptrend, which helps explain the muted response. For the breakout to be validated, gold must show improving momentum and consistent buying interest. Otherwise, a slow drift higher could indicate the move was a false signal. Key resistance remains nearby, and failure to build on Thursday’s advance would leave gold vulnerable to renewed selling pressure.

Symmetrical Triangle in Control

A larger symmetrical triangle continues to frame the technical outlook, reflecting narrowing volatility as prices compress toward the apex. A decisive breakout above $3,435 would confirm the next bullish phase, while an earlier indication of strength could be seen on a move through $3,409. Adding to this structure is a rising ABCD pattern, with its 100% projection targeting $3,452 — just above the triangle’s bullish trigger zone. A breakout above these levels would mark a significant continuation of the broader uptrend.

Monthly Chart Perspective

On the broader monthly timeframe, August marks the fourth consecutive month where gold has traded within April’s wide range, when prices peaked near $3,500. Three of those months formed inside bars, highlighting reduced volatility and persistent indecision. Notably, closing prices for the past four months have clustered tightly between $3,288 and $3,303.

This narrow band has acted as a base of support, and a decisive monthly close above it would carry some technical weight. Such a move would align with the potential for an upside breakout from the ongoing triangle pattern, setting the stage for a test of higher resistance levels into September.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.