20-Week Moving Average Adds to Support Confluence

The lower boundary of the triangle is reinforced by the 20-week moving average (not shown), now at $3,310 on the weekly chart. This average was reclaimed in early January and has since acted as potential dynamic support. In July, it aligned with a swing low that sparked a bullish weekly reversal and proved itself as a support line.

This alignment creates a significant confluence of support between $3,303 and $3,310. A clean break below both the lower boundary and the 20-week moving average would carry greater weight, potentially triggering a stronger downside reaction. In that case, a test of the May swing lows and the 38.2% retracement would become increasingly likely, and the odds of falling below that zone would rise.

Pattern Approaches Decision Point

Gold’s price action remains confined within a tightening consolidation, with each swing high and low narrowing toward the triangle’s apex. This suggests that a resolution — either bullish or bearish — is approaching.

On the upside, a breakout is triggered on a move above the $3,438 swing high. Such a move would signal bullish trend continuation and could pave the way for a retest of $3,500. On the downside, the first trigger is a drop through the lower boundary line, followed by a break below $3,268 to confirm a bearish breakout. Until then, gold’s consolidation reflects a market in balance, but the proximity to major technical levels hints that this balance may not hold much longer.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Four Straight Weeks of Lower Highs and Lows

Friday’s bounce has not changed the bigger picture. Natural gas will log a fourth consecutive week of lower weekly highs and lows, highlighting persistent selling pressure. A bearish continuation signal triggered this week as prices fell through the April swing low. That decline also pierced a long-term support zone where an anchored volume weighted average price (AVWAP) from the 2024 trend low converged with a long-term uptrend line. This line formed the lower boundary of an ascending parallel trend channel, giving the breakdown added significance.

Bearish Targets Remain in Play

Support near the AVWAP level at $2.96 held for several weeks but failed to produce a meaningful rally. With the breakdown confirmed, downside targets remain intact. Below this week’s trend low of $2.764, the next potential target sits at $2.79, completing a 100% projection of a falling ABCD pattern. This would match the size of the second downswing to the first. If weakness extends further, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $2.54 becomes the next major level to watch, and given the strength of recent bearish signals, this deeper target is possible.

Resistance Zone Capped by 20-Day MA

The 20-Day moving average is accelerating lower and is close to crossing beneath the long-term uptrend line. At $3.04, it marks the top of a potential resistance zone starting at the AVWAP line near $2.96. Resistance was seen today at the bottom of that $2.96–$3.04 band and it may serve as a key pivot area where sellers could reassert control, keeping the prevailing downtrend intact. Also, the top of the range would be a upside target for now if today’s bullish price action can continue in the short-term.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

• XAG/USD up 1.63% as US 10-year yields tumble due to rate-cut bets pressuring the Dollar.
• Price hits $38.65, clearing last higher-high; next resistance at $39.00, then YTD high of $39.53.
• Downside risks if $38.00 fails, with supports at $37.50 and $36.21.

Silver price rises over 1.63% on Wednesday, boosted by broad US Dollar weakness as traders had fully priced in a rate cut by the Federal Reserve at next month’s meeting.

Consequently, US Treasury yields, which correlated inversely with XAG/USD, tumbled with the 10-year benchmark note, down five basis points at 4.236%. At the time of writing, the grey metal trades at $38.53, after bouncing off daily lows of $37.85.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver price uptrend remains intact, hitting a three-week high of $38.65 with buyers clearing the last higher-high ahead of challenging the $39.00, with them eyeing the YTD peak of $39.53. From a price action standpoint, if those two levels are cleared, the grey metal could test $40.00 in the near term.

Momentum is bullish as depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI). Nevertheless, if something goes wrong, XAG/USD’s drop below $38.00 could put buyers under stress, and bears could challenge the latest cycle low of $37.50, the August 12 low. If cleared, the next area of interest would be the July 31 swing low of $36.21.

XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily

• Gold price regains some positive traction following the previous day’s slump to a two-week low.
• Strong US PPI-inspired USD recovery falters amid Fed rate cut bets and supports the commodity.
• The upbeat market mood could cap the safe-haven XAU/USD pair ahead of the US macro data.

Gold attracts some dip-buying during the Asian session on Friday and stalls the previous day’s retracement slide from the $3,375 region. The US Dollar (USD) struggles to capitalize on Thursday’s strong US Producer Price Index (PPI)-inspired recovery move from the vicinity of its lowest level since July 28, and turns out to be a key factor acting as a tailwind for the precious metal.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the headline PPI accelerated from the 2.4% YoY rate to 3.3% in July, surpassing expectations of a 2.5% by a wide margin. This overshadows the relatively cooler July Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released on Tuesday and suggests that a broad pickup in inflation was imminent. Traders were quick to react and trimmed their bets for a more aggressive policy easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed), which, in turn, triggered an intraday USD short-covering and weighed on the non-yielding Gold.

The USD recovery momentum, however, runs out of steam as traders are still pricing in a greater chance that the Fed will lower borrowing costs at its upcoming monetary policy meeting in September. Furthermore, the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool indicates the possibility of two 25-basis-point (bps) Fed rate cuts by the end of this year. This keeps the USD bulls on the defensive and turns out to be a key factor that helps revive demand for Gold. However, the prevalent risk-on environment could act as a headwind for the safe-haven commodity.

An extension of the US-China tariff truce for another three months eased concerns about a full-blown trade war between the world’s two largest economies. Moreover, investors remain hopeful that the US-Russian summit this Friday will increase the chances of ending the prolonged war in Ukraine. This remains supportive of the bullish sentiment across the global financial markets. This, in turn, makes it prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before traders start positioning for any further appreciating move for the Gold price.

Friday’s US economic docket – featuring the release of Monthly Retail Sales, the Empire State Manufacturing Index, followed by the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations Index. This, along with speeches by influential FOMC members, could offer fresh cues about the Fed’s rate-cut path, which, in turn, should provide some impetus to the Gold price later during the North American session. Nevertheless, the XAU/USD pair remains on track to register heavy losses for the first time in the previous three weeks.

Gold 4-hour chart

Technical Outlook

The overnight sustained break and acceptance below the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour charts was seen as a key trigger for the XAU/USD bears. Moreover, slightly negative oscillators on hourly/daily charts suggest that any further move up is more likely to attract fresh sellers and remain capped near the 100-hour SMA, currently pegged near the $3,355 region. A sustained strength beyond the latter, however, could trigger a short-covering move and lift the Gold beyond the overnight swing high, around the $3,375 zone, towards reclaiming the $3,400 mark.

On the flip side, the two-week low, near the $3,330 area, now seems to have emerged as a strong support and should protect the immediate downside. Some follow-through selling could make the Gold vulnerable to accelerate the fall further towards the $3,3,00 round figure. The latter should act as a key pivotal point, which, if broken decisively, could negate any near-term positive bias and shift the bias in favor of the XAU/USD bears. This should pave the way for a fall towards the $3,272-$3,270 horizontal support, representing the lower boundary of a nearly three-month-old trading range.

The (silver) price declined in its last trading on the intraday levels, affected by breaking a minor bullish trend line on the short-term basis, surpassing the support of its EMA50, forming more of the negative pressure on the price, on the other hand, we notice the emergence of the positive signals on the (RSI), after reaching oversold levels, indicating the beginning of forming a positive divergence from there, providing positive momentum that assists it to recover if its current support settles.

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Copper price returned to form weak and sideways trading, attempting to face stochastic negativity that is located within the oversold level, to keep the main stability above the main bullish channel’s support at $4.0500.

The attempt of the moving average 55 to reinforce the stability of the extra support at $4,2600 might help it to provide some positive momentum, to ease the mission of targeting the positive stations near $4.6300 and $4.7400.

The expected trading range for today is between $4.3700 and $4.6300

Trend forecast: Bullish

Despite the stability of the EURJPY pair’s stability until this momentum within the levels on the bullish channel, but there are several negative factors that began from providing negative momentum by stochastic, and the stability below 172.00 that forms an important obstacle against the bullish trading, these factors help to confirm the dominance of the bearish correctional track, to keep waiting for targeting the initial support at 170.45, and breaking it will force the price to suffer new losses by reaching 169.45.

While regaining the bullish bias requires forming strong bullish rally, to step above 172.00, attacking the resistance at 173.40 to find an exit to achieve new gains in the upcoming period trading.

The expected trading range for today is between 170.45 and 172.60

Trend forecast: Bearish

Short-Term Support Zone Under Pressure

For several days, natural gas has been testing support around the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of a prior upswing. This appears to be a pause in the downtrend, and the expectation remains that the bear trend will resume once the short-term consolidation phase is complete. If a bounce occurs first, the behavior of price near potential resistance zones should reveal more about shifting supply and demand dynamics.

Breakdown Through Key Support

Tuesday’s sharp decline marked a decisive break below a critical support area that had been tested repeatedly in recent weeks. This zone was defined by the confluence of a long-term uptrend line and an anchored volume-weighted average price (AVWAP) from the 2024 trend low. Also included was the April swing low at $2.86, which served as an extended boundary for the zone.

Once $2.86 was broken, a bearish continuation signal was triggered, confirming the continuation of an ABCD decline from the March trend high. The bearish signal was reinforced by a daily close below $2.86. It will establish longer-term bearish confirmation on the weekly chart if the week finishes below that price.

Lower Targets in Play

Downside projections begin with $2.63, the completion of a smaller descending ABCD pattern (purple). Below that, the next target is the 78.6% retracement of a larger upswing than the earlier Fibonacci measure. Given the recent long-term breakdown through major support, the technical bias favors lower levels before the current bearish correction runs its course.

Bounce Scenario

If a rally develops and clears the two-day high of $2.85, natural gas could stage a countertrend move toward a resistance zone between $2.96 and $3.07. The lower end of this zone aligns with the AVWAP level, while the upper boundary is defined by the declining 20-Day moving average. As the 20-Day MA continues to fall, the top of the resistance range will gradually shift lower.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

International Paper Company (IP) stock rose slightly in its latest intraday trading, attempting to recover part of previous losses while also trying to relieve some of the oversold pressure apparent on the Relative Strength Index indicators, especially as positive signals begin to appear. However, the stock’s recent rise faced resistance from the 50-day SMA, with the medium-term trend still under bearish control.

Therefore, we expect the stock price to decline in its upcoming trading, as long as the 48.50$ resistance holds, targeting the key support level of 43.55$.

Today’s price forecast: Bearish

XAU/USD Current price: $3,336.86

• An unexpected jump in the US Producer Price Index in July spurred risk aversion.
• A souring market mood boosted demand for the US Dollar, weighing on Gold price.
• XAU/USD pressures its weekly low, could extend its slide towards $3,300.

Spot Gold pressures a fresh weekly low around the $3,330 level in the American session on Thursday, amid resurgent US Dollar (USD) demand. Financial markets were shocked by recent United States (US) inflation-related figures, as, following the release of a benign July Consumer Price Index (CPI) earlier in the week, the Producer Price Index (PPI) in the same period was much hotter than anticipated.

Inflation at wholesale levels in the US surged at an annualised pace of 3.3% in July according to the PPI, while the core annual reading printed at 3.7%, much higher than the 2.6% posted in June or the expected 2.9%. The figures weighed down hopes for an interest rate cut in September, but a rate cut remains on the table. According to the FedWatch Tool, a rate cut of 25 basis points (bps) is 90.4% possible in September, compared to the 94.3% from before the PPI release.

Wall Street turned south with the news, with the three major indexes trading in the red at the time. At the same time, demand for the USD returns, resulting in a modest XAU/USD retracement despite the softer mood.

Friday will bring the US July Retail Sales and the preliminary estimate of the August Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The daily chart for the XAU/USD pair shows that it has been trading within a limited intraday range, just below a flat 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), providing dynamic resistance at around $3,357. The same chart shows the 100 SMA keeps grinding north, albeit losing its upward momentum at around $3,301.80. Finally, technical indicators remain within neutral levels, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator turning marginally lower, in line with the ongoing weakness.

In the near-term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the risk skews to the downside. The XAU/USD pair develops below all its moving averages, with the 20 SMA gaining downward traction between directionless 100 and 200 SMAs. At the same time, technical indicators turned flat, although within negative levels, reflecting the latest bounce but far from suggesting additional recoveries.

Support levels: 3,328.10 3,312.25 3,301.80

Resistance levels: 3,350.00 3,372.30 3,389.85