Copper price stayed below $5.5100, maintaining its negative stance and increasing the likelihood of forming short-term corrective downward waves. Since yesterday, the price has been fluctuating near $5.4200, affected by the ongoing divergence in key indicators, particularly the moving average 55 positioned above current trading levels.

It is important for the price to gather bearish momentum during today’s sessions, which would facilitate targeting first $5.2700, followed by the next key support near $4.9500. However, a strong push above $5.5100 with a positive close would cancel this bearish outlook and give the price a chance to start recovering, potentially moving first toward $5.6300.

The expected trading range for today is between $5.2700 and $5.5100

Trend forecast: Bearish

Domestic coffee prices

The domestic coffee market this morning, March 26, witnessed a fairly strong downward adjustment after reaching a high level in the middle of the week. Agents in the Central Highlands region reduced purchase prices from 800 to 1,000 VND/kg, causing the average price of the whole region to fall back to the threshold of 93.2 million VND/kg.

Detailed changes in localities:

Dak Lak and Gia Lai: Both decreased by 800 VND, currently purchasing at the mark of 93. 200 VND/kg.

Dak Nong (old): Recorded a decrease of 1,000 VND, pushing prices here down to 93.2 million VND/kg.

Lam Dong: Adjusted down 1,000 VND, currently fluctuating around the threshold of 92. 200 VND/kg.

World coffee prices

Wednesday’s trading session saw both London and New York exchanges turn down as concerns about sea transport disruptions began to cool down.

New York Stock Exchange (Arabica): May 2026 futures fell 1.75 cents (-0.55%), closing the session at 316.10 cents/lb. Selling pressure appeared as there were hopes for US diplomatic efforts to end the conflict in Iran, helping to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. In addition, Arabica’s ICE inventory is still at its highest level in 6 months (585.621 bags).

London exchange (Robusta): May 2026 delivery futures fell 33 USD (-0.90%), closing at 3,629 USD/ton. The decline occurred despite Robusta inventories on the ICE exchange still at a record low of 2.25 months (4,211 lots). Forecasts of a record crop of 75.3 million bags from Brazil and a 14% increase in exports from Vietnam continue to be major obstacles.

Market outlook

The coffee market is showing extreme sensitivity to geopolitical news. The sharp increase in logistics, insurance and fuel costs due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz was once a stepping stone for Arabica prices to break through to a 7-week peak. However, when peace expectations appeared, the market immediately reacted with a strong profit-taking.

It is forecasted that in the coming sessions, coffee prices will continue to be in a state of stalemate in the range of 92,000 – 94,000 VND/kg. Basic factors such as low rainfall in Minas Gerais (only reaching 45% of the historical average) and Robusta inventory scarcity will prevent prices from falling deeply.

*Note: The actual price may differ depending on the quality and purchasing area.

Despite recent minor upward corrective movements, platinum price continues to face repeated resistance within the descending channel, with $2005.00 acting as an extension of the main resistance, which makes us keep the bearish scenario in the near and medium period trading.

Additionally, the 55-period moving average is forming an extra resistance barrier below the channel’s upper limit, providing further bearish momentum. Our negative outlook targets first $1865.00, with potential extension toward $1775.00.

The expected trading range for today is between $1980.00 and $1865.00

Trend forecast: Bearish

Copper price neediness to the negative momentum that comes from the moving average 55 positivity contradiction with stochastic attempt to provide the negative momentum led to form new sideways trading, due to its fluctuation near the barrier at $5.5100 level.

This barrier represents a detecting key for the near and medium trading, so the stability below it confirms the dominance of the bearish corrective trend, which might target $5.2700 and $4.9500, while surpassing the barrier and holding above it will force the price to delay the decline and begin providing bullish trading, attempting to reach $5.6300 and $5.7600.

The expected trading range for today is between $5.2700 and $5.5100

Trend forecast: Bearish

The effect of Fibonacci positivity by forming bullish waves to rally towards the moving average 55 near $1985.00, keeping its stability within the bearish channel’s levels, which represents an extension level for the main resistance at 2040.00 level.

The stability below the main resistance makes us keep the bearish scenario, as gathering the negative momentum makes us begin targeting some negative stations by reaching $1865.00 and $1775.00, while breaching the resistance and holding above it will confirm regaining the bullish trend, to attempt to reach $2090.00 initially.

The expected trading range for today is between $1865.00 and $2000.00

Trend forecast: Bearish

The EURJPY pair moves away from 182.00 support, affected by the positivity of the main indicators, attacking the barrier at 184.20 which represents %66.8 Fibonacci corrective level as appears in the above image.

Note that the continuation of the stability below the barrier that might push it to provide new bearish trading, reaching 183.40 and 182.65, while breaching the barrier and holding above it will confirm its readiness to form strong bullish waves, to expect reaching 184.80, attempting to reach the next target near 185.45.

The expected trading range for today is between 183.40 and 184.20

Trend forecast: Fluctuating

Brent crude is seen averaging $85 per barrel this year, and West Texas Intermediate could see an average price of $79, Goldman Sachs commodity analysts said in a note released Sunday. They added that the supply loss from the crisis is going to peak at 17 million barrels daily.

The price update is from an earlier outlook of $77 on average per barrel of Brent crude and $72 on average per barrel of WTI.

At the time of writing, the international benchmark was trading at $112.69 per barrel, with the U.S. benchmark at $99.60 per barrel, both up from Friday’s close as the deadline for the ultimatum that President Donald Trump gave the Iranian leadership draws near.

Trump issued the ultimatum on Saturday, urging Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours of his TruthSocial post or face the “obliteration” of its power plants by U.S. forces. In response, Iran said it would target the energy and water desalination infrastructure of U.S. allies in the Persian Gulf and Israel.

Goldman assumed the disruption in tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz will last six weeks, and then shipments of crude from the Gulf will gradually recover within a month, pushing oil prices down. Iran effectively closed the Strait in the days following the joint U.S. and Israeli attacks on its leadership, cutting off 20% of global oil flows almost completely. Not everyone is as optimistic as Goldman analysts, with some observers suggesting the disruption could last for months even if the bombings stop.

“The largest oil supply shock ever will likely lead policymakers and markets to recognize the structural risks from the high concentration of production and spare capacity in the Middle East and from the vulnerability of energy infrastructure,” the Goldman commodity team wrote in its note.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

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