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Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Bullish Momentum Persists as Technicals Signal Further Gains

Gold prices are extending their upward trajectory, with XAU/USD holding near recent highs as of mid-February 2026, driven by a combination of technical momentum, persistent safe-haven demand, and expectations of central bank policy shifts. The precious metal has climbed over 8% since the start of the year, buoyed by geopolitical uncertainties and a softer U.S. dollar, and market analysts see further upside potential if key resistance levels are breached.

What’s Driving the Gold Rally?

The current bullish run in gold is underpinned by several macro factors. The U.S. Federal Reserve’s signals of a potential pause in rate hikes have weakened the dollar, making gold more attractive to international buyers. Additionally, ongoing geopolitical tensions and concerns about global economic growth continue to fuel safe-haven inflows into the yellow metal. Central bank buying, particularly from emerging markets, remains a structural support, with official sector purchases in 2025 reaching a two-decade high.

From a technical perspective, XAU/USD has broken above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, a classic bullish crossover that often attracts momentum traders. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near 65, indicating strong upward momentum without being overbought, leaving room for further gains before a potential pullback.

Key Levels to Watch

Immediate resistance is seen at the psychological $2,700 mark, followed by the all-time high near $2,750. A decisive close above these levels could open the path toward $2,800. On the downside, support is established at $2,620, the 20-day moving average, and a break below that could signal a short-term correction. Traders are also monitoring the $2,580 level, which aligns with a Fibonacci retracement of the recent rally.

Volume analysis shows increasing participation in the rally, with open interest in gold futures rising by 5% over the past week, suggesting that new money is entering the market rather than just short covering.

Why This Matters for Investors

For investors, the sustained bullish trend in gold offers a hedge against inflation and currency depreciation. With real yields still negative in several major economies, gold’s opportunity cost remains low, making it an attractive asset in diversified portfolios. However, a sudden shift in Fed policy or a resolution of geopolitical tensions could trigger profit-taking, so risk management is crucial.

Conclusion

Gold’s bullish run appears poised to continue, supported by solid technicals and macro tailwinds. While short-term corrections are possible, the overall trend remains upward. Investors should watch key resistance levels and central bank communications for cues on the next leg of the move.

FAQs

Q1: Is gold a good investment in 2026?
Gold remains a viable hedge against inflation and market volatility, especially with central banks diversifying reserves. However, it’s essential to consider your risk tolerance and portfolio goals.

Q2: What is the forecast for XAU/USD this year?
Analysts are cautiously bullish, with targets ranging from $2,700 to $2,800 if current support levels hold. A break below $2,580 could signal a reversal.

Q3: How does the U.S. dollar affect gold prices?
Gold and the dollar typically move inversely. A weaker dollar makes gold cheaper for foreign buyers, boosting demand and prices.

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What Would Change Bearish Outlook?

Price behavior suggests a continuation of the bearish trend until there is evidence to the contrary. That wouldn’t occur unless there was a sustained reclaim of the 50-day moving average. Since that average may be at or near Monday’s high before an upside breakout is attempted, it may have greater significance. The breakout of consolidation, along with the reclaim of a key moving average, would suggest that an advance from there may have greater success than if that 50-day moving average was approached.

Above the 50-day moving average is a lower swing high of $2.98, a key resistance area from structure. It is supported as resistance by a higher swing low from May. That wouldn’t change the overall bearish technical outlook represented in the larger bearish structure. In that case, the current developing symmetrical triangle pattern could be interpreted as a bearish pennant, could add to momentum if a breakdown below last week’s low of $2.69 occurs.

The pair ended its latest bullish surge after hitting 217.10, which forced it to form some sideways trading as it gathers additional positive momentum. The price is currently fluctuating around 216.70, maintaining its positive stability above the initial support at 216.35.

The above keeps our bullish bias intact, with the pair potentially targeting 217.35 and 217.85, respectively. However, slipping below 216.35 and recording a negative close would activate the corrective scenario, potentially pushing the price toward 215.55.

The expected trading range for today is between 216.30 and 217.50

Trend forecast: Bullish

Domestic coffee prices today

Coffee prices today in the domestic market increased slightly compared to the previous session. According to giacaphe. com, the average coffee price on August 24 was 96,600 VND/kg, an increase of 300 VND/kg.

In Dak Lak, coffee prices were recorded at 96,500 VND/kg, an increase of 300 VND/kg compared to the previous session.

In Lam Dong, coffee prices reached 96,000 VND/kg, an increase of 300 VND/kg. This is the lowest level among the surveyed areas.

In Gia Lai, coffee prices are at 96,500 VND/kg, an increase of 300 VND/kg.

The old Dak Nong area recorded a level of 96,800 VND/kg, an increase of 300 VND/kg. This is the highest level in today’s price list.

Despite increasing again, the price level is still significantly lower than the 98,000-99,000 VND/kg area recorded last week.

The USD/VND exchange rate according to Vietcombank is recorded at 25,900 VND/USD.

World coffee prices

In the world market, coffee prices decreased in the most recent session.

According to Barchart, the December 2026 Arabica futures contract closed the last session of the week down 6.65 US cents/lb, equivalent to 2.02%. In the same session, the September 2026 Robusta futures contract fell 104 USD/ton, equivalent to 2.81%.

Coffee prices fell as the market expects drier weather in Brazil to help accelerate harvest progress. Robusta alone is also under pressure from increased inventory, as Robusta inventory certified on ICE reached 4,732 lots, the highest level in 8.75 months.

Coffee price assessment

Domestic coffee prices increased slightly after adjustment sessions, but the upward momentum is still quite thin. The sharp decrease in world Robusta in the most recent session may cause the domestic market to continue to be cautious in the coming sessions.

For Vietnam, Robusta London is still a more important reference because this is the main coffee group. When Robusta decreases by nearly 3%, domestic purchasing prices are unlikely to have a strong upward momentum if there is no additional purchasing power from export businesses or supporting factors from actual supply.

From an export perspective, according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment, in July, Vietnam exported about 147,600 tons of coffee, worth 639.5 million USD. Accumulated in the first 7 months of the year, coffee exports reached about 1.2 million tons, an increase of 10.8% in volume but a decrease of 11.2% in turnover, to 5.45 billion USD. This development is mainly due to the average export price decreasing by 19.9% compared to the same period, down to 4,537 USD/ton.

Regarding the weather, the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting said that on the day and night of August 24, the Central Highlands area will be cloudy, sunny during the day; showers and scattered thunderstorms in the late afternoon and night. Lowest temperature 20-23 degrees C, highest 28-31 degrees C, in some places above 32 degrees C. In thunderstorms, there is a possibility of tornadoes, lightning and strong gusts of wind.

Rainstorms in this season need to be monitored in terms of garden care, pest and disease prevention, and goods preservation.

In the coming sessions, the diễn biến of Robusta London, Arabica New York, USD/VND exchange rate, inventory and demand for export purchases will continue to dominate the domestic price level.

Copper price renewed the previously suggested bullish attempts, reaching the first target at $6.5800, which continues to act as an intraday barrier against the bullish scenario. This has forced the price to move sideways, fluctuating around the $6.5100 level once again.

We continue to emphasize that holding above the key support at $6.2700, along with the continued attempt by the main indicators to provide positive momentum, supports our expectations for a breakout above the current barrier to open the way for further gains, potentially starting at $6.6300 and $6.6700.

The expected trading range for today is between $6.4800 and $6.6300

Trend forecast: Bullish

The natural gas price prediction for Monday follows Friday’s strong session where MCX Natural Gas Mini opened at Rs 262.50, reached Rs 266.80, and settled at Rs 266.40. Ankit Jaiswal, Research Analyst at Univest, notes that the natural gas price prediction for Monday benefits from the US EIA weekly natural gas storage report, which showed a smaller-than-expected inventory build — this is a bullish fundamental catalyst supporting the natural gas price prediction for Monday.

Kunal Singla, Research Analyst at Univest, observes that the natural gas price prediction for Monday is supported by the approaching expiry of the MCX Natural Gas 26 August contract. As participants roll forward to September, there is typically reduced liquidity in the near-month contract heading into Monday, which can amplify price moves in the natural gas price prediction for Monday.

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Today’s Market Recap: Natural Gas on 21 August 2026

Natural Gas Price Prediction for Monday: Technical Analysis

Ankit Jaiswal’s natural gas price prediction for Monday identifies Rs 262 to 263 as the immediate support, near Friday’s intraday low of Rs 262.50. A hold above Rs 262 in the natural gas price prediction for Monday confirms the bullish momentum. Resistance stands at Rs 266.80 (Friday’s high) with stronger resistance at Rs 271 to 273 in the natural gas price prediction for Monday.

Trend for Monday 24 August 2026: Mildly Bullish
Support: Rs 262 to 263 | Rs 258 to 260
Resistance: Rs 266.80 | Rs 271 to 273

Global Cues for Natural Gas Prediction for Monday

• COMEX Overnight: COMEX gold and silver levels Monday morning are the primary pre-open cue for MCX precious metals on Monday. Watch spot gold above $3,400/oz and silver above $30.50/oz.
• Iran-Strait of Hormuz: Ongoing supply risk remains the dominant crude oil and commodity driver for Monday. Any weekend escalation or resolution will be the primary opening catalyst.
• US Dollar Index: A weaker DXY heading into Monday would support precious metals and commodities across the board on Monday.

Key Events for Monday 24 August 2026

• MCX Silver Mini and Copper 24 Aug options expire Monday 24 August — elevated intraday volatility expected in early Monday trade
• COMEX levels Monday morning set the MCX precious metal opening for Monday
• Iran-Strait of Hormuz weekend news is the primary catalyst for crude oil and energy commodities on Monday
• US EIA natural gas report and OPEC+ communications over the weekend will shape the energy complex on Monday

Stocks Linked to Natural Gas Prediction for Monday

Explore Natural Gas-Linked Stocks on Univest Screener

Strategy for Natural Gas on Monday 24 August 2026

• Buy MCX Natural Gas near Rs 262 to 263 with stop below Rs 258 targeting Rs 266.80 in the natural gas price prediction for Monday
• A break above Rs 266.80 targets Rs 271 to 273 in the natural gas price prediction for Monday
• Note: MCX Natural Gas 26 Aug contract nears expiry — check rollover to September before Monday in the natural gas price prediction for Monday
• US EIA weekly storage report (bullish build data) is the key fundamental driver for the natural gas price prediction for Monday

What Does Sentiment Indicate for Natural Gas Prediction for Monday?

Sentiment for the natural gas price prediction for Monday is mildly bullish after Friday’s 2.03% surge — the strongest single-day gain for MCX Natural Gas this week. Ankit Jaiswal notes that the smaller-than-expected US EIA storage build is the most important fundamental input for the natural gas price prediction for Monday, as it signals tighter-than-anticipated US supply.

Kunal Singla observes that the natural gas price prediction for Monday is also affected by the approaching 26 August contract expiry. Reduced near-month liquidity may amplify Monday’s price moves in the natural gas price prediction for Monday. Participants should ensure they roll forward to September before Monday’s MCX open if holding near-month positions.

Risks to Natural Gas Prediction for Monday

• A sharp reversal in US natural gas prices (Henry Hub below $3.00/mmBtu) would undermine the natural gas price prediction for Monday
• MCX Natural Gas 26 Aug contract approaching expiry creates thin liquidity in the natural gas price outlook for 24 August
• An unexpected US EIA storage build reversal would weigh on the Monday’s MCX natural gas price forecast
• India heat wave easing would reduce domestic natural gas demand expectations in the Wednesday’s natural gas price outlook

Download the Univest iOS App or Univest Android App to track live Natural Gas prices and get real-time predictions.

Conclusion

the 24 August natural gas price outlook, 24 August 2026, is mildly bullish. MCX Natural Gas surged +2.03% to Rs 266.40/mmBtu on 21 August. Ankit Jaiswal places support at Rs 262 and resistance at Rs 266.80.

Kunal Singla notes the US EIA bullish storage data and approaching 26 Aug expiry are key factors in the MCX natural gas price forecast for Monday. Download the Univest app for live MCX natural gas tracking.

Disclaimer: Investments in securities are subject to market risk. This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Univest Research Analyst Registration No. INH000013776.

Frequently Asked Questions on Natural Gas Prediction for Monday

What is the natural gas price’s 21 August outlook, 24 August 2026?

Ans. Mildly bullish. MCX Natural Gas surged +2.03% to Rs 266.40 on 21 Aug. Ankit Jaiswal places support at Rs 262 and resistance at Rs 266.80 for the natural gas price outlook for 24 August.

What drove the natural gas 2.03% rally for prediction for Monday?

Ans. A smaller-than-expected US EIA natural gas storage build and broader commodity risk-on sentiment drove Friday’s 2.03% MCX Natural Gas gain, supporting the Monday’s MCX natural gas price forecast.

Does the 26 Aug expiry affect natural gas prediction for Monday?

Ans. Yes, MCX Natural Gas 26 Aug contract nears expiry. Thin liquidity may amplify Monday moves. Ankit Jaiswal recommends checking contract roll to September before Monday in the Wednesday’s natural gas price outlook.

What are key levels for natural gas prediction for Monday?

Ans. Support: Rs 262 to 263 and Rs 258 to 260. Resistance: Rs 266.80 and Rs 271 to 273 in the 24 August natural gas price outlook.

What is the natural gas strategy for Monday?

Ans. Buy near Rs 262 with stop below Rs 258 targeting Rs 266.80 in the MCX natural gas price forecast for Monday. A break above Rs 266.80 targets Rs 271 to 273.

Copper price ended the bearish corrective trading by providing a new positive close above the main support at $6.2700, benefiting from the main indicators by forming some bullish waves, to settle near $6.5000, confirming the stability of the previously suggested bullish scenario.

The price might face some difficulties in the bullish attempts due to stochastic fluctuation below level 50, we expect reaching the barrier near $6.5800, and breaching it will ease the mission of recording extra gains that might begin at $6.6700.

The expected trading range for today is between $6.4200 and $6.5800

Trend forecast: Bullish

The Gold price’s break above its 200-day average strengthens the near-term outlook, with $4,700 now the first major test and $4,500 providing support.

The Gold price (XAU/USD) entered the weekend near $4,604 an ounce after climbing more than 5% over the week and reaching its highest level since mid-May.

Friday’s advance carried spot gold as high as $4,631.99, while US futures settled at $4,680.60.

The move above the 200-day moving average around $4,513 marked an important change in the technical picture and strengthened the case for a further recovery towards $4,700.

Gold benefited from a sharp Dollar decline after US Treasury plans to expand purchases of longer-dated government debt unsettled investors and pulled capital towards alternative stores of value.

The policy announcement also helped ease long-term yields, reducing the opportunity cost of holding a non-interest-bearing asset.

Goldman Sachs reported renewed speculative interest in COMEX gold and rate-sensitive exchange-traded funds, while unusually strong demand for call options amplified the advance.

Gold broke decisively above $4,500 as Dollar selling and renewed demand for macroeconomic hedges accelerated.

Near-Term Gold Price Prediction: $4,700 Becomes the First Test

The immediate gold price forecast has turned bullish following Friday’s close above both the 200-day average and the downward trend line from the January record.

Initial resistance is expected between $4,654 and $4,689, where measured technical projections converge with retracement levels from the earlier decline.

TD Securities global head of commodity strategy Bart Melek said: “Next step is $4,700 if this momentum continues.”

A sustained break above $4,700 would strengthen the recovery and expose the $4,770–$4,780 region.

Technical analyst Bruce Powers identified the April swing high around $4,891 as the larger upside objective if buyers retain control.

That would leave gold within reach of the psychologically important $5,000 level, although momentum indicators suggest the market could consolidate or correct before mounting such an advance.

The first important support zone is now located between $4,500 and $4,516.

Holding this area would indicate that former resistance has become support and keep the bullish breakout intact.

A daily close below $4,500 would weaken the signal and risk a retreat towards $4,450, followed by the August 14 low near $4,310.

Losses below $4,300 would represent a more serious deterioration, potentially returning attention to the $4,000 region that supported gold during the June correction.

Indian Demand Strengthens the Floor, Not the Immediate Target

World Gold Council research also revealed improving demand conditions in India ahead of the festive season, although the figures should be viewed as evidence of support during price declines rather than justification for an uninterrupted rally.

The Council’s reference price of $4,391 was recorded on August 14, before gold subsequently broke above $4,600.

Research Head for India Kavita Chacko said: “Demand conditions are improving, raising expectations of a stronger festive season.”

Jewellery retailers and manufacturers replenished inventories as consumers returned after June’s sharp correction and July’s period of greater price stability.

Local discounts narrowed from around $100 an ounce in May and early June to approximately $45 by mid-August, pointing to a better balance between available supply and immediate demand.

Estimated Indian gold imports recovered to 40–45 tonnes in July from 20 tonnes during June, while their value more than doubled from $1.97bn to $4.16bn.

Investment demand provided a second source of support.

Indian gold ETFs attracted net inflows of $163mn during July, followed by an estimated $124mn during the first two weeks of August.

There are limits to how much support the physical market can provide at current prices.

Friday’s surge above $4,600 reportedly deterred some Indian retail buyers, while elevated prices could encourage households to exchange old jewellery and postpone discretionary purchases.

The medium-term institutional outlook nevertheless retains a bullish bias.

UBS expects gold to reach $5,000 an ounce during the first half of 2027, supported by eventual Federal Reserve easing, portfolio diversification and continuing official-sector demand.

UBS Chief Investment Officer Mark Haefele said periods of weakness towards $4,000 “may ultimately prove to be opportunities to build strategic exposure.”

Our base-case forecast is for gold to remain supported above $4,500 and challenge $4,654–$4,700.

A confirmed break higher would target $4,770–$4,780 and potentially $4,891, while a close below $4,500 would warn that the breakout had failed.

US PCE inflation data on Wednesday and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole address on Friday will be the principal tests next week.

Softer inflation or reduced expectations of another US rate increase would favour further gains, whereas a renewed rise in yields and the Dollar could trigger a correction towards breakout support.

So, there could be a little bit of a jump here in the next week or so in one direction or the other, really. And the October contract does tend to be a little bit more bullish than September because you start to talk about cooler temperatures in the United States, something that we certainly don’t have at the moment. I’m giving this analysis with all of the windows open, very comfortable temperatures, no need to burn a lot of natural gas, although it is somewhat attached to electricity. It gets a little bit of a spike when it gets really hot; air conditioning demand can drive it higher, but right now there is no real huge push for that either. So, all things being equal, with the abundant supply, it keeps the price of natural gas somewhat suppressed.

Contract Rollover and Seasonal Demand Outlook

Ultimately, I do think that we’re getting close to the end of the quiet season. And this winter could be particularly interesting as the Europeans may find themselves having to import US natural gas, and that will have a major influence here.

But as things stand right now, we’re in a tight range between the 50-day EMA at $2.87 and the $2.65 level underneath. We’re basically in the middle of it. Looks like quiet, choppy trading to me.