The World Trade Organization now forecasts a 0.2% contraction in global goods trade this year, adding to the risk-off tone. Meanwhile, the weakening DXY has enhanced gold’s relative appeal for foreign investors.

Fed Policy and Economic Data Offer Mixed Signals

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled caution on rate cuts, pointing to persistent inflation and uneven economic momentum. Markets still price in 86 basis points of cuts by year-end 2025, with July flagged as the earliest likely move.

U.S. jobless claims declined to 215,000, suggesting labor market resilience, though continuing claims ticked up to 1.885 million. March housing data was mixed—permits rose 1.6%, while starts slipped.

Outlook: Momentum Intact, but Caution Prevails

Despite the recent pullback, gold’s broader trend remains constructive. As long as rate uncertainty lingers and trade risks persist, investor demand for safe-haven assets like gold and silver is likely to remain firm.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold holds above $3,322 support as trade risks and a weak dollar sustain safe-haven demand. Silver eyes $33.11 resistance, but momentum hinges on holding key support near $32.12.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Stops at 200% Extended Target

Thursday’s high completed a 200% extended target for a large rising ABCD pattern that begins from the August 2018 swing low. That target is joined by the 261.8% extended retracement of the multi-year bearish correction that began from the August 2011 peak at $3,355. Therefore, a decline below $3,284 is a sign of weakness and could lead to a deeper pullback to test prior resistance as support.

Key initial price levels start with the prior high of $3,246 along with Wednesday’s low of $3,239. Then, there is the inside day from Tuesday with a low of $3,208. A bull breakout of that day led to the sharp bullish upside continuation run on Wednesday. Therefore, it may hold significance on the way down as well, if it is approached.

Multiple Bullish Signs

This week’s upside continuation in the price of gold followed a long bullish engulfing pattern that was completed last week. It showed aggressive buying and a continuation of the long-term bull trend. Moreover, the strong advance triggered breakouts of two rising parallel trend channels, further indicating that demand was increasing. The top line of the blue channel should also be watched for signs of support during a deeper pullback, if it occurs.

ABCD Pattern Points to $3,382

An initial target from a rising ABCD pattern has not yet been reached and it therefore identifies the next higher potential target at $3,3,83. Higher up is the 161.8% extended target for a larger rising ABCD pattern (not shown). Then, a little higher is $3,454. That price area is the estimated target for a small bull flag defined by the two narrow range days of consolidation from Monday and Tuesday. An intraday chart (not shown) provides a clearer view of the bull flag pattern.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Platinum price kept its positive stability above the moving average 55, to notice it attempted to enter the minor bullish channel’s levels again by hitting $972.60 level, which forced it to provide some of the sideways trading range, due to Stochastic reach to the overbought level.

Note that the continuation of the formation of extra support at $950.00 level will represent an important factor to confirm the continuation of the positivity, which makes us wait to gather the required extra positive momentum to motivate the bullish rally, until reaching the main targets at $981.00 and $994.00.

The expected trading range for today is between 985.00 and 1040.00

Trend forecast: Bullish

Counter-trend Rally in Play

Given the sharp five-day decline to a low of $55.23 that ended last week, there is a strong case to be made for a sharp countertrend rally as well. Crude oil fell by $17.25 or 23.8% following the April 2 high of $72.49, measured to last week’s low and the low of the bearish correction. It has been consolidating off that bottom until the upside breakout that triggered today. Certainly, there can still be some backing and filling within this week’s price range of $60.40 to $64.72, before an advance might continue.

But this week will end with a higher weekly high and higher weekly low, a sign that buyers are stepping in more aggressively than they have recently. Furthermore, today’s bullish advance follows a bullish outside day from Wednesday, another bullish sign. Traders and investors will likely see short-term weakness as an opportunity given the new bullish signals in crude oil.

Upside Targets Start Around $65.00

The first key upside target zone is from the confluence of several indicators from $65.40 to $65.89. Prior lows and now potential support are at $65.40 to $65.65, while the 20-Day MA, now at $65.72, and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $65.89 complete the price range. A little higher is the initial 100% target from a rising ABCD pattern (not shown) that completes at $67.08. Subsequently, there is the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $68.79, which is joined by the 127.2% extended target for the ABCD pattern at $69.31.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

XAU/USD Current price: $3,315.82

• The European Central Bank trimmed interest rates as expected in the April meeting.
• US President Donald Trump threatened to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
• XAU/USD corrective declines keep attracting buyers, higher highs still in sight.

Gold price retreated further from its record high on Thursday, trading as low as $3,284.10 early in the American session. The US Dollar (USD) maintained its bearish bias against all major rivals throughout the day, with XAU/USD easing on the back of profit-taking. The pair, however, bounced from the mentioned low and regained the $3,300 mark ahead of the long Easter weekend.

It was quite a busy day, despite limited reactions across the FX board. On the one hand, the European Central Bank (ECB) announced its monetary policy decision. As widely anticipated, ECB officials trimmed the three benchmark interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) each. Officials refrained from giving clear hints on what’s next for monetary policy, yet highlighted the risks related to the trade war while noting uncertainty remains high.

On the other hand, United States (US) President Donald Trump jumped into social media and took aim at Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell, complaining he is moving too slow on interest rate cuts while stating that his “termination cannot come fast enough.”

Trump’s words came as an answer to Powell’s speech on Wednesday, warning of the potential consequences of the Trump administration’s trade war, while reiterating that the central bank plans to hold interest rates steady for now.

On a positive note, the White House welcomed talks with Mexico and Canada regarding a trade deal, albeit no specific details were offered.

Other than that, Wall Street trades mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) sharply down but the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 holding on to modest gains.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The daily chart for the XAU/USD pair shows it posted a higher high and a higher low, maintaining the bullish trend alive despite the intraday slide. At the same time, technical indicators eased from extreme readings, but remain in overbought territory. Finally, the pair trades above all its moving averages, with a bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) currently at $3,114.60.

Support levels:3,317.20 3,305.65 3,292.80

Resistance levels 3,335.00 3,350.00 3,375.00

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) increased its Henry Hub natural gas spot price forecast for 2025 and 2026 in its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released on April 10.

According to its April STEO, the EIA now sees the Henry Hub spot price averaging $4.27 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2025 and $4.60 per MMBtu in 2026. In its previous STEO, which was released in March, the EIA saw the Henry Hub spot price averaging $4.19 per MMBtu in 2025 and $4.47 per MMBtu in 2026.

The EIA projected in its April STEO that the Henry Hub spot price will come in at $3.93 per MMBtu in the second quarter of 2025, $4.34 per MMBtu in the third quarter, $4.68 per MMBtu in the fourth quarter, $4.93 per MMBtu in the first quarter of next year, $4.18 per MMBtu in the second quarter, $4.61 per MMBtu in the third quarter, and $4.66 per MMBtu in the fourth quarter.

The EIA highlighted in its latest STEO that the Henry Hub spot price averaged $4.15 per MMBtu in the first quarter of 2025 and $2.19 per MMBtu overall in 2024.

In its March STEO, the EIA projected that the Henry Hub spot price would average $3.88 per MMBtu in the second quarter of this year, $4.30 per MMBtu in the third quarter, $4.49 per MMBtu in the fourth quarter, $4.66 per MMBtu in the first quarter of 2026, $4.13 per MMBtu in the second quarter, $4.50 per MMBtu in the third quarter, and $4.60 per MMBtu in the fourth quarter of next year.

The EIA’s March STEO projected that the Henry Hub spot price would average $4.11 per MMBtu in the first quarter of 2025. This STEO also highlighted that the commodity came in at $2.19 per MMBtu overall in 2024.

“A colder than normal January and February this winter heating season resulted in more natural gas than average being withdrawn from natural gas storage,” the EIA said in its latest STEO.

“We estimate more than 1,600 billion cubic feet (Bcf) of natural gas was withdrawn in the first quarter of 2025 (1Q25), or 21 percent more than the five-year (2019 – 2024) average,” it added.

“At the end of March, which marks the end of the U.S. natural gas storage withdrawal season (November – March), we estimate that U.S. working natural gas in underground storage totaled just over 1,800 Bcf, or four percent less than the five-year average,” it continued.

The EIA highlighted in the STEO that it expects higher natural gas prices this year compared with 2024, which it said “will encourage producers in the Appalachia and Haynesville regions to increase production”.

“Dry natural gas production averages about 105 Bcfpd in 2Q25 in our forecast, nearly three Bcfpd more than the same period in 2024,” the EIA noted in its April STEO.

“The U.S. benchmark Henry Hub price averages more than $3.90 per MMBtu in 2Q25 in our forecast, almost 90 percent higher compared with 2Q24. We expect the Henry Hub price to average about $4.30 per MMBtu in 2025 and nearly $4.60 per MMBtu in 2026,” it added.

“We expect natural gas injections into storage to be higher than average early in the natural gas injection season (April – October),” it continued.

The EIA went on to reveal, however, that it expects injections to fall below the five-year average “beginning in midsummer when natural gas use in the electric power sector picks up”.

“We forecast U.S. natural gas inventories will end the injection season on October 31 with three percent less natural gas in storage than the five-year average, with about 3,660 Bcf in storage,” it added.

A research note sent to Rigzone by the JPM Commodities Research team on April 12 showed that J.P. Morgan expected the average U.S. natural gas Henry Hub price to average $3.80 per MMBtu in 2025 and $3.31 per MMBtu in 2026.

J.P. Morgan saw the commodity coming in at $3.90 per MMBtu in the second quarter of this year, $4.00 in the third quarter, $3.75 per MMBtu in the fourth quarter, $3.50 per MMBtu in the first quarter of next year, $3.00 in the second quarter, $3.25 per MMBtu in the third quarter, and $3.50 per MMBtu in the fourth quarter, the report highlighted.

A BMI report sent to Rigzone by the Fitch Group on April 11 showed that BMI expected the front month natural gas Henry Hub price to average $3.40 per MMBtu this year and $3.80 per MMBtu next year.

A Standard Chartered Bank report sent to Rigzone by Standard Chartered Bank Commodities Research Head Paul Horsnell on April 8 showed that Standard Chartered expected the NYMEX basis Henry Hub nearby future U.S. natural gas price to average $3.35 per MMBtu in 2025 and $3.30 per MMBtu in 2026.

Standard Chartered Bank saw the commodity averaging $3.50 per MMBtu across the second and third quarters of this year, $3.20 per MMBtu across the fourth quarter of 2025 and first quarter of 2026, $3.70 per MMBtu in the second quarter of 2026, and $3.50 per MMBtu in the third quarter of next year, according to the report.

To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com

The GBPJPY pair activated the negative attack in yesterday’s trading, achieving the initial negative target by hitting 187.55 level, then it rebounded to settle above 38.2%Fibonacci correction level at 188.00, to gather the required negative momentum to confirm the continuation of the bearish trend in the upcoming trading.

In general, the bearish scenario would remain valid if the trading settled below the main resistance at 189.90, as confirming breaking 188.00 level makes us expect targeting new negative stations, and 186.50 level represents the next target for the negative trading, while the attempt of breaching the mentioned resistance will cancel the bearish suggestion in the near trading, as there is a chance for achieving some gains by the price rally towards 190.50 initially.

The expected trading range for today is between 186.50 and 189.20

Trend forecast: Bearish