• Gold price rebounds from near the $2,970 region again on Wednesday.  
• Risk-off flows dominate as traders brace 104% US tariffs on Chinese imports, Fed Minutes.
• Gold price remains stuck between two key daily SMAs; RSI recovers to prod the 50 level.

Gold price is looking to finally end its corrective downside early Wednesday, finding demand once again near the $2,970 region. A sustained upside in Gold price hinges on the market reaction to the reciprocal tariffs and the Minutes of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) March policy meeting.  

Gold price focuses tariff updates for fresh directives

Gold price is capitalizing on deteriorating investors’ confidence as US President Donald Trump’s global reciprocal tariffs come into effect. Markets are spooked mainly due to the whopping 104% tariffs on Chinese goods, which took effect, heightening US-China trade tensions.

The White House confirmed late Tuesday that 104% duties on imports from China would take effect after midnight on Wednesday.

Amidst looming tariff uncertainty and the increased odds of a US recession, the US Dollar (USD) sticks to its bearish momentum, allowing Gold price to find its feet. However, if the Fed Minutes indicate prudence due to risks of higher inflation, the Greenback could see a temporary relief rally. USD sellers will likely jump in in no time due to the reciprocal tariffs coming into effect.

All in all, Gold price is likely to emerge as a clear winner even if the Fed Minutes are perceived as cautious, in the wake of the US-China trade war escalation. Late Tuesday, President Trump accused China of manipulating the currency to protect against tariffs, but he remained hopeful that China would make a deal at some point.

Meanwhile, the ongoing recovery in the US Treasury bond yields could threaten the upswing in the non-yielding Gold price. But the impact could be limited amid increased dovish bets surrounding the Fed interest rate cuts.

The jump in the US Treasury bond yields could be linked to investors selling the safe-haven asset to cover losses elsewhere. Therefore, the increased bets for aggressive Fed rate cuts could soon check the yield surge.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

Gold buyers are fighting back control as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) pierces the 50 level from below.

Gold price needs acceptance above the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,036 on a daily closing basis for resuming the record rally.

Buyers will then look to the weekly high of $3,056, above which $3,100 will be tested.

On the flip side, a sustained break below the 50-day SMA at $2,952 will negate the near-term bullish bias, opening the door toward the $2,900 round figure.

The next relevant support levels are seen at the March 10 and 11 lows, at $2,880, and the 100-day SMA, at $2,809.

May be Heading To 200-Day Moving Average

The next lower target is the 78.6% retracement at $3.40. However, there is a better-defined potential support zone from $3.08 to $2.98, consisting of the initial 100% target for a falling ABCD pattern and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the upswing beginning in August 2024. Also, within that price zone is the next lower trend indicator, the 200-Day MA, now at $3.04, and a prior swing high and symmetrical triangle breakout level of $3.02.

Monthly Bearish Signal

The monthly chart (not shown) is supportive of further downside as a one-month bearish reversal triggered this month. Support from March is at $3.16 and there could be some signs of support around the price level. Moreover, another bearish monthly signal would be generated on a drop below March. A bearish monthly signal especially increases the chance that the lower potential support level noted above may be reached before the current bearish correction is complete.

Bearish Correction Could Fall Farther Than Expected

If natural gas ends up falling below $2.98 and staying below it, sellers may remain in charge down to the $2.77 price zone or lower. That is the 127.2% extended target for the falling ABCD pattern. A daily close below $2.98 would signal a bearish reversal of the advance that began from the August 2024 interim swing low.

The late-January higher swing low at $2.99 is part of the price structure of that trend therefore a drop below that price level would violate the integrity of the uptrend. Additionally, there appears to be potential support around a long-term uptrend line (purple) originating from the April 2024 swing low. It identifies the next lower trend support area below the 200-Day MA. In general, once one trendline is broken, the next lower line becomes a potential target.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Platinum price provided a new positive close above the support base at $895.00, increasing the chances for activating the bullish rally, especially, that stochastic is attempting to provide positive momentum by surpassing the oversold level.

We expect platinum price’s rally toward $935.00, and the continuation of the positivity will reinforce the chances for attacking the extra barrier at $950.00, while reaching below the mentioned support and holding below it will cancel the bullish suggestion, to begin forming strong bearish waves that might push it to decline toward $880.00 and $858.00.

The expected trading range for today is between $905.00 and $950.00

Trend forecast: Bullish 

• Silver price drifts higher to near $29.85 in Wednesday’s Asian session.
• Trump’s tariff uncertainty and fears of global recession boost the safe-haven flows, supporting the Silver price. 
• The FOMC Meeting Minutes Will take center stage later on Wednesday.

The Silver price (XAG/USD) recovers some lost ground to around $29.85 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday. Analysts believe the recent correction could be a setup for a strong rebound amid rising trade tensions and recession fears. Traders brace for the FOMC Minutes, which are due later on Wednesday. 

US President Donald Trump said late Tuesday that he wasn’t considering a pause on his plan to impose sweeping additional tariffs on dozens of countries despite contact from trade partners seeking to avoid the levies. However, he hinted that he could be open to some negotiations.

Trump’s remarks came after his top officials sent signals about the administration’s willingness to engage with trade partners, with a 10% tariff already in place and targeted retaliatory import tariffs scheduled for Wednesday. This uncertainty has spurred global market volatility and boosted the safe-haven demand, supporting the Silver price. 

Additionally, industrial demand, especially from new-age industries like EVs and solar energy, provides some support to the white metal. Gains are also expected in the consumer electronics market, as the development of artificial intelligence systems will continue to boost product offerings. 

Traders will keep an eye on the FOMC Meeting Minutes on Wednesday. This report could offer insight into the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) stance on monetary policy. Any hawkish remarks from the Fed officials could lift the Greenback and weigh on the USD-denominated commodity price in the near term. 

Traders will keep an eye on the FOMC Meeting Minutes on Wednesday. This report could offer insight into the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) stance on monetary policy. Any hawkish remarks from the Fed officials could lift the Greenback and weigh on the USD-denominated commodity price in the near term. 

The price of Bitcoin (BTCUSD) continued to decline in its recent intraday trading, settling below the key support level of $77,000, confirming its break. This increases the possibility of further price decline, especially as it trades near a descending minor trendline within the main bearish trend in the short term, with additional confirming signals from the Relative Strength Index indicators (RSI), despite reaching excessive oversold areas.

Measured Moves Matched

As shown on the chart, there have been two previous large downswings since the 2023 peak of $95.50. The first (A) found a bottom after a 29% price correction and the second ended after a 25.3% decline. As of this week’s low, the current bearish correction has crude oil down by 28%. Once there is symmetry between the swings, there is a chance for signs of support and the completion of the correction. It is another piece of technical evidence identifying a potential short-term low in crude oil.

Reaching Oversold Conditions

The relative strength index (RSI) has fallen to oversold levels and the test of support near the lower end of the trend channel is also a sign that the price of crude may be oversold. Nonetheless, selling pressure remains as the closing price today will be a new low for the bearish correction.

Upside Potential?

I decisive advance above Tuesday’s high of $61.88 would be needed for signs of strength that may continue. Once the lower blue channel line is exceeded to the upside the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $63.57 becomes a target. Also, Monday’s high at $64.05 is close by. If strength can be maintained above that level, the next higher target zone is around previous price support and the 50% retracement level at $65.41 to $65.27, respectively.

Since that price zone may have greater significance given the previous long-term support level (now resistance), it looks like there is a good chance it is reached if there is a bullish reversal before new lows. Then, after the 50% level, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $67.37 and the 20-Day MA, now at $67.69, become the next upside target.

Bearish Continuation would Target $57.21

On the downside, the next lower price zone identified for potential support is from $57.21 to $56.37. Crude is well on its way to reaching the price zone and therefore it may do so, and it may be soon.

Inside Day Consolidation

The inside day pattern may complete as a bearish doji shooting start candlestick pattern. Although that pattern is typically more reliable at market tops, it still reflects sellers being in control for the day, as the day’s closing price is set to be near the lows of the day. Therefore, a decline below $2,975 will trigger a breakdown of the inside day shooting star pattern.

Shows Relative Strength

Gold has held up better than many assets during recent global market volatility as it has only fallen by 6.7% and it remains above the 50-Day MA. Although dropping below the rising trendline and 20-Day MA are signs of weakness, the relationship to the 50-Day line is now key support. If gold remains above the 50-Day MA, it has a chance for the advance to continue. But a decisive decline below the 50-Day line could change that.

50-Day Moving Average Support is Key

Lower potential support levels that are below the 50-Day line, include a 78.6% retracement level at $2,904, a 50% retracement of a larger swing at $2,875, and a prior interim swing low at $2,833. Those price areas can be watched for possible support along with the next lower long-term uptrend line (purple). If the 50-Day MA fails as support, the next trend indicator is the purple uptrend line, and therefore it has a good chance of being reached if gold drops below and then stays below the 50-Day MA.

Upside Breakout Faces 20-Day Moving Average

On the upside, a one-day bullish reversal above today’s high of $3,023 may lead to a test of resistance around the 20-Day MA at $3,036. Then there is Monday’s high of $3,055. Gold would need to trade above and stay above $2,023 before it has a chance to challenge recent highs.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

• Silver bounces from $28.33 after failed bearish breakout, reclaiming $29.80 with eyes set on $30.00 resistance.
• Technical setup turns bullish as RSI exits oversold territory and hammer pattern signals momentum shift.
• Daily close above $29.70 could open door to $30.87 (200-day SMA), while downside risk emerges below $29.50.

Silver price sellers failed to decisively clear support at $28.75 daily, and buyers stepped in near yearly lows of $28.33, pushing the grey metal’s price back above $29.80 with traders eyeing the $30.00 mark. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades at $29.89, up 0.89%.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

Silver’s downtrend stalled and it might be poised for a leg-up due to some technical factors: the formation of a hammer, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) exiting oversold conditions, with the index punching above the 30 level, a signal that usually is bullish for traders.

Furthermore, XAG/USD trades above the January 25 low of  $29.70, and a daily close above the latter could sponsor a test of the $30.00 level. Once cleared, the next stop would be the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $30.87, followed by the $31.00 mark.

On the other hand, a drop below $29.50 could pave the way for further downside, with the next support being $29.00, followed by the year-to-date (YTD) low of $28.33.

XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily

Crude oil prices (Crude Oil) have dropped in recent intraday trading, as negative signals from the relative strength indicators have started to appear again. This follows the price’s success in surpassing its previous overbought conditions, amidst the dominance of the main downward trend in the short term.