• Silver price bounces back sharply to near $30.30 as market expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates in June swelled.
• Fed Powell warned that Trump tariffs could lead to higher inflation and unemployment.
• The demand outlook for Silver as an industrial metal has weakened.

The price of silver (XAG/USD) is up almost 2.4%, nearing $30.30, during North American trading hours on Monday. The white metal bounces back strongly after a bloodbath on Thursday and Friday as traders have become increasingly confident that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could cut interest rates in the June meeting.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders have completely pared their bets, favoring an interest rate reduction in June.

Traders have raised Fed dovish bets as Fed Chair Jerome Powell has signaled concerns over the United States (US) economic outlook after President Donald Trump swept reciprocal tariffs on all its trading partners.

“We face a highly uncertain outlook with elevated risks of both higher unemployment and higher inflation,” Powell said on Friday.

However, the industrial demand for Silver has turned sluggish as Trump’s tariffs have stemmed concerns over the global economic outlook, especially in China, which has been slapped with 54% tariffs.

Silver has applications in various industries, such as Electric Vehicles (EV), electronics, and solar energy. Given that China is the manufacturing hub of the world, a higher degree of tariffs on them impacts its manufacturing sector, which eventually hits Silver’s demand.

Theoretically, heightening global economic tensions increase the appeal of precious metals, such as Silver, but fears of a slowdown in its industrial demand weighs on its price.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price recovers to test the breakdown region of the Ascending Triangle chart formation near its upward-sloping border around the August 8 low of $26.45. The horizontal resistance of the above-mentioned chart pattern is plotted from the October 22 high of $34.87

Technically, the breakdown of the Ascending Triangle pattern indicates results in a volatility expansion, which leads to higher volume and formation of wide ticks.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) rebounds slightly after turning oversold around 27.00. This indicates that the recovery move appears to be a short-lived one, and investors should brace for more weakness.

Looking down, the August 8 low of $26.45 will act as key support for the Silver price. While, the April 4 high of $32.00 will be the major barrier.

Silver daily chart

As bearish sentiment builds in oil markets, major banks are slashing their price forecasts for both Brent and WTI, citing mounting recession risks, the U.S. tariff shockwave, and a surprise uptick in OPEC+ supply.

Goldman Sachs led the downgrades, issuing its second cut in days. The bank now sees Brent averaging $58 and WTI at $55 in 2026, down $4 per barrel from its prior estimate, and well below earlier projections of $62 and $59, respectively. It follows a 5.5% cut to its 2025 Brent forecast on Friday and a sharply reduced view on demand, now pegged at just 300,000 bpd growth for 2024—half its earlier outlook.

Goldman also hiked its U.S. recession odds to 45%, warning of a “sharp tightening in financial conditions” and policy uncertainty that is likely to curb capital spending. The firm hinted that a reversal of tariffs could lift prices above current forecasts, but for now, it’s preparing for prolonged weakness.

Citi dropped its near-term Brent forecast to $60 per barrel for the next three months, pointing to a $10 drop in prices since the tariff announcement. The bank is cautious on any short-term rally, advising investors to sell into strength unless a major shift in U.S. policy—or a dramatic supply response—materializes.

Morgan Stanley followed suit, cutting its Brent outlook for Q2 to $65 per barrel, down from $70. It now expects Brent to hover around $62.50 through the second half of the year.

This wave of forecast downgrades builds on market instability that had already taken hold before today. ING commodity analysts previously flagged the OPEC+ decision to increase output as a key factor driving recent oil price moves. According to ING, the shift was motivated by three pressures: U.S. sanctions on Venezuela and Iran, Washington’s push for lower prices, and a desire within OPEC+ to discipline overproducers like Iraq and Kazakhstan.

Stock Market Rout Triggers Margin Selling in Gold

Risk-off sentiment intensified after U.S. President Donald Trump announced sweeping new tariffs affecting over 180 countries, including a 54% total tariff rate on Chinese goods. Global equity markets sold off sharply, with Dow futures falling over 1,300 points and the 2-year Treasury yield plunging 16 basis points to 3.52%, the lowest since September 2022. The equity market collapse forced investors to cover margin calls, prompting gold liquidations despite the metal’s safe-haven appeal.

Hawkish Powell Dampens Rate Cut Hopes

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled a more cautious approach on rate cuts, noting that the inflationary impact of the tariffs could be more persistent than initially anticipated. While markets had priced in as many as five rate cuts this year, Powell’s emphasis on inflation control suggests the Fed may delay any easing. The hawkish tone put further downside pressure on gold, as the likelihood of near-term rate cuts diminished.

Central Bank Buying and Recession Risk Provide Underlying Support

Despite Monday’s sharp drop, gold remains supported by ongoing central bank purchases and growing recession fears. China added to its gold reserves for a fifth consecutive month, while Deutsche Bank upgraded its year-end gold price forecast to $3,350, citing macroeconomic headwinds and safe-haven demand. Additionally, real yields are expected to stay low, providing a longer-term bullish backdrop for gold.

Key Technical Levels in Focus

Natural gas price lost the positive momentum recently, which forces it to settle below the obstacle at 4,180$, to form a temporary negative rebound, to keep its stability above the extra support at 3,750$.

We expect the price affection by the sideways bias domination, to attempt to gain the required positive momentum, to expect targeting 4,050 level, then repeat the attempt of breaching the mentioned obstacle, while facing new negative pressures might push the price to resume the correctional decline, to suffer extra losses by reaching 3,560$ before any attempt to achieve the waited positive targets. 

The expected trading range for today is between 3,750$ and 4,050$

Trend forecast: Bullish

Copper price began today’s trading with sharp negativity, where it approached from the main bullish channel’s support at 3.9500$, then attempts to recover clearly by bounding towards 4,3800$, getting advantage from stochastic attempt to exit the oversold level as appears in the above image.

 we don’t suggest positive trading unless breaching the barrier at 4,5600$, to expect renewing the negative trading in order to renew the pressure on the main support, where breaking it will confirm its move to the bearish track, 3,8100 forms the initial negative target reaching 3,6600.

The expected trading range for today is between 4,000$ and 4,5200$

Trend forecast: Bearish

Platinum price continued to form negative trading to reach 890.00$, to begin decreasing the losses by its rebound above the support at 900.00$ level, which represents a historical support as appears in the above image, recovering some of the losses by its stability near 933.00.

Note that the price stability below the broken bullish channel’s support at 958.00$, which forms a main factor to confirm the negative scenario, therefore, we will keep waiting for gathering extra negative momentum, attempting to renew the pressure on the mentioned historical support, while breaking it will extend the losses towards 858.00$ and 880.00$. 

The expected trading range for today is between 880.00$ and 945.00$

Trend forecast: Bearish

• Silver price recovers some lost ground to near $30.05, adding 1.80% on the day. 
• The concerns over tariff wars and potential global recession boost the safe-haven flows, supporting the Silver price.
• Traders will take more cues from the US March CPI inflation data, which is due later on Wednesday. 

The Silver price (XAG/USD) recovers to around $30.05 during the early European trading hours on Monday. The white metal edges higher as the fear of tariff wars and the potential global recession boost the safe-haven demand. 

Silver price has witnessed heightened volatility since last week in response to the US imposing reciprocal trade tariffs on key trading partners. Mounting fears of recession over the impact of a global trade war triggered by US President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs dampen market sentiment and undermine the precious metals. 

Furthermore, strong industrial demand, especially from new-age industries like EVs and solar energy, creates tailwinds for the white metal. Gains are also expected in the consumer electronics market, as the development of artificial intelligence systems will continue to boost product offerings. 

Silver generally moves with gold, but industrial applications such as electronics and photovoltaics account for more than half of world demand, which is estimated to be approximately 700.2 million troy ounces by 2024, according to the Silver Institute industry association.

Traders will keep an eye on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data for March, which will be published later on Thursday. If the report shows cooler-than-expected inflation in the US, this might lift the Greenback and drag the USD-denominated commodity price in the near term.

• Gold price slumps to near $2,985 in Monday’s early Asian session.
• The stock market selloff has prompted investors to cover losses. 
• Intensifying trade war and geopolitical risks could boost the safe-haven demand, benefiting the Gold price. 

The Gold price (XAU/USD) faces some selling pressure to around $2,985 during the early Asian session on Monday, pressured by some profit-taking. The precious metal extends the decline as a fall in the US stock market has prompted traders to liquidate gold positions to create the necessary liquidity to cover losses in the stock market.

The recent sharp sell-off in the US stock market on Friday was about raising cash to cover margin calls after US President Donald Trump announced new reciprocal tariffs on goods from many countries. However, the downside for the yellow metal might be limited due to the supportive fundamentals. “Bargain hunters will rush in next week to buy cheap gold and silver, helping the precious metals to rally again,” said Rich Checkan, chairman and CEO of Asset Strategies International.

Additionally, the global economic uncertainties and escalating geopolitical tensions could boost the safe-haven flows, supporting the Gold price. Russians shelled more than 30 localities in the Kherson region, including residential areas of Kherson. Seven people were wounded, the Kherson regional military administration’s Oleksandr Prokudin reported. Despite the volatility,” gold is still a safe-haven place for many investors,” said Matt Simpson, a senior analyst at City Index.

Production Holds Steady Despite Falling Rig Counts

Despite a drop in the U.S. natural gas rig count—down seven last week to just 96—output remains strong. Lower-48 dry gas production averaged 106.4 Bcf/d on Friday, up over 4% from a year ago. This persistent output is meeting softening demand head-on. Industrial and residential usage remains subdued, and power burn, while stable, has yet to show the typical seasonal ramp-up. The result is a market with more supply than it currently needs, particularly in the absence of weather-related demand spikes.

Did the Latest Storage Report Shift Market Expectations?

Yes. The EIA reported a 29 Bcf injection into storage for the week ending March 28, well above the five-year average draw for that period. While inventories are still 21.5% lower than last year and 4.3% below the five-year norm, the size of the early injection signaled that mild weather and excess supply are beginning to rebuild stockpiles earlier than expected. This has added to the near-term bearish tone, especially as traders focus on the potential for larger-than-usual builds in the coming weeks.

Can LNG Exports Offset Domestic Weakness?

LNG exports remain a bright spot, with flows to U.S. export terminals holding near 15.5 Bcf/d. While down slightly from the prior week, they continue to support baseline demand. Longer term, President Trump’s move to lift restrictions on LNG export project approvals has reactivated a backlog of infrastructure proposals. If even a portion of these projects moves forward, it would meaningfully increase export capacity and help balance domestic oversupply. For now, however, the export story is more supportive for long-term pricing than for the current supply-demand mismatch.

Market Forecast: Bearish Near Term on Demand and Supply Imbalance

The short-term outlook for natural gas remains bearish. Weaker weather-driven demand, strong production, and early-season storage builds are tilting the market toward oversupply. Unless colder weather unexpectedly returns or LNG demand accelerates, prices may continue to face downward pressure in the week ahead.