• Silver slips after strong rally as traders reduce exposure ahead of key US macroeconomic releases next week.
• A close below $34.23 opens door to deeper pullback, with $33.51 and $33.00 as key downside targets.
• Bulls need to hold above $34.25 to retest YTD high at $34.58 and make a run toward $35.00.

Silver price hits a five-month high but retreats toward the $34 figure late on Friday, as traders brace for the weekend, eyeing a busy economic schedule in the United States (US). At the time of writing, the XAG/USD pair trades at $34.03, down by over 1%.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

Silver hit $34.58 earlier, before retreating as traders seem to book profits, taking risks off the table. As the grey metal falls, it has cleared the first support seen at $34.23, March 18 peak. If sellers achieve a daily close below the latter, XAG/USD could extend its losses beneath $34.00.

In that outcome, the first support would be the March 26 daily low of $33.51. Once surpassed the next stop would be $33.00. On the other hand, if Silver remains above $34.25, bulls could be poised to claim the year-to-date (YTD) high of $34.58, ahead of testing $35.00

XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily

Brent crude oil price kept rising in latest intraday trading, breaching the pivotal resistance of $73.60, while buoyed by trading above the 50-candle SMA, amid the dominance of the upward correctional trend in the short term, as the price moves alongside primary and secondary trend line, indicating the strength and dominance of this trend.

Sharp Upside Breakout

Also, the second leg down in the correction generated a bullish falling wedge pattern. That might help account for the sharp runup seen today. Notice that earlier in today’s trading session the trendline and 50-Day MA were first tested as support before buyers took back control, leading to the rally.

The next decision point looks to be around the 20-Day MA, now at $4.12. That initial price target may yet be hit before the end of the day since natural gas continues to trade near the highs of the day, at the time of this writing. Other initial upside targets include the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and a prior interim swing high at $4.26.

Improving Bullish Signs

Given the bullish reaction following the completion of a 61.8% retracement it is possible that the corrective decline is complete. Certainly, it might be. But further evidence of strength will be needed. A daily close above the 20-Day MA would be one sign of strengthening that could lead to higher prices. But the recent interim swing high at $4.26 makes up the price structure of the recent decline as it is a lower swing high. Reclaiming that high would provide another bullish reversal signal. But keep in mind that rallies will be heading up into a consolidation zone if recent highs are approached. This could lead to further consolidation.

Rallying Into Consolidation Zone

Finally, let’s consider the large rising trend starting from the 2024 low. It shows on the chart as a large parallel trend channel. Within the larger trend channel there are shorter trends defined by a trendline along support. Since the recent rising trendline was broken to the downside, there is the possibility that the next lower trend support line is eventually tested as it was not during the recent bearish correction. Keep that in mind if natural does eventually turn back down after reaching higher price levels.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Platinum price managed to surpass the barrier of $983.00 yesterday and reactivate the upward momentum, as the 55 SMA forms an additional support near $966.00, while the Stochastic sends out positive signals by exiting oversold levels. 

The price will likely head towards $1000.00, thus heading additional targets such as $1017 and $1026 respectively. 

Expected trading range today is between $975 and $1000.

Today’s price forecast: Bullish

• Silver price jumps to near $34.60 as its safe-haven demand improves amid growing concerns over global trade.
• Investors expect that Trump’s tariffs will impact economic growth and prompt inflation across the globe.
• The US core PCE inflation data rose at a faster-than-expected pace of 2.8% in February.

Silver price (XAG) posts a fresh five-month high near $34.60 in North American trading hours on Friday. The white metal strengthens as investors turn cautious ahead of April 2, when United States (US) President Donald Trump is scheduled to unveil reciprocal tariffs.

Market participants expect that Trump’s tariffs will result in an economic slowdown and boost inflationary pressures in the near term. Such a scenario increases the appeal of safe-haven assets, such as Silver.

However, the US Dollar (USD) slumps as Trump’s tariffs will also weigh on the US economic outlook. Investors expect the impact the tariffs will have on US imports, which would be forced to pass them on to consumers. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, slides to near 104.00.

Meanwhile, hotter-than-expected US core PCE Inflation – which excludes volatile food and energy items – fails to provide support to the US Dollar. The underlying inflation data rose at a faster pace of 2.8% year-on-year compared to estimates and the prior release of 2.7%. Month-on-month core PCE inflation grew by 0.4%, faster than expectations and the former reading of 0.3%.

Accelerating inflationary pressures force the Federal Reserve (Fed) to maintain a restrictive monetary policy stance for a longer period. Higher interest rates by the Fed bode poorly for non-yielding assets, such as Silver.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price advances toward the flat border of the Ascending Triangle chart pattern formation on the daily timeframe near the October 22 high of $34.87. The upward-sloping border of the above-mentioned chart pattern is placed from the August 8 low of $26.45. Technically, the Ascending Triangle pattern indicates indecisiveness among market participants.

The 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $33.30 continues to provide support to the Silver price.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) rebounds above 60.00, suggesting a resurgence in bullish momentum.

Looking down, the March 6 high of $32.77 will act as key support for the Silver price. While, the October 22 high of $34.87 will be the major barrier.

Silver daily chart

Brent crude oil price edged lower in the intraday levels, amid the dominance of the upward correctional trend in the short term as the price trades alongside primary and secondary trend line, while trying to vent off overbought saturation in the Stochastic, with negative signals emerging from it, while gathering positive momentum to rise anew.

Natural gas price held above the support of $3.750 and started forming upward waves that sent the price to $3.940, with positive signals from major indicators, paving the way towards $4.085 initially, with a breach sending the price to $4.180 and $4.260.

Expected trading range today is between $3.850 and $4.085.

Today’s price forecast: Bullish as the support holds 

Copper price wrapped up its upward surge temporarily after touching $5.3300, while collecting profits and  settling near the previous psychological barrier of $5.000.

As the Stochastic settles below 50, the price  will likely extend losses and target $4.9500, however, a renewal of the upward rush would require closing above $4.1800, sending the price to the next target at $5.4100.

Expected trading range today is between $4.9500 and $5.1300.

Today’s price forecast: Bearish

Copper price wrapped up its upward surge temporarily after touching $5.3300, while collecting profits and  settling near the previous psychological barrier of $5.000.

As the Stochastic settles below 50, the price  will likely extend losses and target $4.9500, however, a renewal of the upward rush would require closing above $4.1800, sending the price to the next target at $5.4100.

Expected trading range today is between $4.9500 and $5.1300.

Today’s price forecast: Bearish

• Gold price refreshes record highs above $3,070 early Friday, awaiting US PCE inflation data.
• Trump’s tariffs reignite trade war and stagflation fears, driving safe-haven flows into Gold price.
• Gold buyers almost tested the triangle target at $3,080, where is price headed next?

Gold price extends its record-setting rally toward $3,100 after settling above $3,050 on Thursday. Sitting at record highs, Gold price keenly awaits the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data and US President Donald Trump’s tariff updates for additional trading impetus.

Gold price reaches lifetime highs and counting

The safe-haven demand for the traditional store of value, Gold price, remains unabated amid a typical market unrest and panic situation, courtesy of Trump’s tariff plans. Investors scurry for safety in the bright metal, bracing for a raft of tariffs likely to be implemented as early as next week.

On Wednesday, Trump announced his plan to implement a 25% tariff on imported cars and light trucks, effective April 3, while the duty on auto parts is scheduled to begin on May 3. Markets also gear up for a wave of reciprocal tariffs on April 2.

Trump’s tariff wave has revived concerns over a potential trade war, which could lead to stagflation or recession in major economies. The revival of global economic slowdown fears and increased demand for Gold from Asian central banks have contributed to the latest record run in the bright metal.

Even though the recent economic data continue to indicate a healthy state of the American economy, tariff jitters overshadow and keep the US Dollar (USD) and the US Treasury bond yields on the losing end while propelling Gold price higher.

On Thursday, data showed that the fourth-quarter headline annualized Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth was revised to 2.4%, higher than the previous and the consensus estimate of 2.3%. Meanwhile, the US Initial Jobless Claims came in at 224K, beating the expected 225K figure.

Looking ahead, the further upside in Gold price hinges on the US core PCE Price Index data release. Economists expect the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge to increase by 2.7% year-over-year (YoY) in February, following a 2.6% growth rate in January. A hotter-than-expected data release could prompt the US inflation print to justify the central bank’s prudent approach to interest rate cuts, weighing negatively on the non-interest-beating Gold price.

Conversely, a downside surprise in the data will likely bolster the ongoing rally in Gold price, alleviating pressure on the Fed over Trump’s tariffs-driven inflationary pressures. In such a scenario, markets will continue to bet on two rate cuts this year.

However, any reaction to the US data could be temporary as any developments on tariff plans by Trump could play a pivotal role in driving the market sentiment and the Gold price action. Additionally, a profit-taking slide in Gold price cannot be ruled out as traders reposition ahead of next week’s tariffs roll out and US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data release.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

The daily chart shows that Gold price has almost tested the ascending triangle target, measured at $3,080.

Therefore, a minor pullback cannot be ruled out in the near term. Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has entered the overbought region, currently at 72.50, lending credence to the retracement outlook.

If a correction unfolds, the immediate support for Gold buyers is at the $3,050 psychological barrier, below which the March 26 low of $3,012 could be tested.

Further down, the $3,000 round level will emerge as a significant support level.

On the other hand, if buyers manage to hold ground, the next topside target is seen at the $3,100 threshold.

Fresh buying opportunities would emerge above that level, opening doors for an advance toward the $3,150 level.