A decisive breakout above today’s high would trigger a one-day bullish reversal breakout and put crude in a position to challenge higher trend resistance areas. The potentially more significant resistance zone is first around the 20-Day MA, now at $71.11.
For crude to have a shot of going higher and potentially reversing the bearish trend it needs to first get above and stay above the 20-Day line. That moving average can be viewed along with the downtrend line marking dynamic resistance for the decline. A decisive breakout above the line would put crude in a position to challenge potential resistance around the 50-Day MA, which is $73.23 currently.
Bounce off Monthly Support
It is important to consider several key factors when addressing support at the daily low point. Support was seen near an interim swing low of $66.86 from mid-November, and near the lower channel line for the current decline. That November support level was also a monthly low. Although the lower line was not hit specifically, the correction got close enough given the subsequent bullish reaction.
Moreover, a measured move for the correction shows a $13.79 or 17.1% decline from the most recent swing high at $80.76. The four prior bearish corrections in crude oil ranged from a decline of 14.8% to 18.3%. Since the current decline was close to matching the largest recent drop on a percentage basis, it provides another piece of evidence to support the likely completion of the correction. The fact that a sharp intraday bullish reversal followed further supports this thesis.
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Following a swing low of $2.99 from late-January, natural gas reclaimed its 20-Day MA on February 13. Shortly thereafter, the advance accelerated and subsequently encountered resistance around the top trendline of a large rising parallel trend channel. That led to a decline and an eventual higher swing low at $3.74. Support around the 20-Day MA and the 50-Day MA (orange) were successfully tested around the swing low as it was followed by a bullish key reversal day. The current decline is testing support around the 20-Day line for the first time it was tested in mid-February.
Two Lines Show Dynamic Trend Support
Initial dynamic trend support for the current bearish pullback is around the 20-Day MA and internal uptrend line. If support is maintained around those lines, then the structure of the uptrend from $2.99 remains intact. But a decisive drop below both lines will indicate the potential for a deeper retracement. But further signs of weakening would be needed to further confirm the breakdown.
There is always the possibility of a false breakdown that quickly reclaims the trend support lines. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $4.17 failed to show support on the way down today. This opens the possibility of an eventual test of support around the 50% retracement level at $3.95. Of course, the 20-Day line and trendline would be broken before then.
Strong Resistance at Top Channel Line
Resistance has been encountered around the top line of a rising channel multiple times since the December interim swing high. On Monday, a bullish breakout of the channel led to a new trend high of $4.90 and then a failure of the breakout given the quick bearish reversal and subsequent downside continuation. Therefore, it is possible that a bearish correction could test lower support levels, below the trendline, before it is done.
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Silver price may test the primary barrier at the four-month high of $33.40 level.
The 14-day RSI remains above the 50 mark, reinforcing a bullish bias.
The initial support appears at the nine-day EMA of $32.41.
Silver price (XAG/USD) loses ground after registering gains in the previous session, trading around $32.80 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. Technical analysis on the daily chart indicates a weakening bullish bias, with the grey metal remaining below an ascending channel pattern.
However, the Silver price remains above the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), signaling that short-term momentum is stronger and further upward movement. Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned above the 50 mark, reinforcing the bullish bias.
On the upside, the primary barrier appears at the four-month high of $33.40, recorded on February 14, which is aligned with the lower boundary of the ascending channel. A successful return to the ascending channel would strengthen the bullish outlook and drive the metal price toward the channel’s upper boundary at $35.10.
To the downside, the XAG/USD pair may find initial support at the nine-day EMA of $32.41, followed by the 50-day EMA at $31.65 level. A break below this level could weaken short- and medium-term price momentum, pushing Silver’s price toward the two-month low of $30.70, recorded on February 3.
XAG/USD: Daily Chart
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
US inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, eased in February.
Trade war concerns keep investors on their toes, weighs on the US Dollar.
XAU/USD aims to break higher after a long week consolidative phase.
Spot Gold kept trading within familiar levels throughout the first half of Wednesday, finding buyers on approaches to the $2,900 mark yet meeting sellers ahead of the $2,930 level. The US Dollar (USD) broad weakness maintained the bright metal afloat yet fell short of boosting demand.
Wall Street opened with a positive tone but quickly turned into the red after the United States (US) reported softer-than-expected February inflation figures. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) was up 0.2% MoM in February, while the annual figure printed at 2.8%. Finally, core annual inflation rose 3.1%, with all figures coming below expected.
Easing price pressures temporarily boosted speculation the American economy was doing good enough to skip President Donald Trump’s inspired chaos. However, trade-war-related concerns weighed more. The US Dollar came under renewed selling pressure after the American opening, pushing XAU/USD to the upper end of its recent range.
Market participants, however, maintain the focus on trade tensions. Levies on all steel and aluminium imports into the US pay levies of 25% as of today, with Canada and Europe announcing retaliatory measures. Canada announced new trade duties on some $21 billion worth of US goods, while the European Commission launched levies worth around $29 billion on US industrial and agricultural products starting April 1.
XAU/USD short-term technical outlook
The daily chart for the XAU/USD pair shows it is pressuring the upper end of the aforementioned range, albeit with limited bullish strength. The pair rests above a flat 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), which provides support at around $2,912.50. The same chart shows, however, that the Momentum indicator remains stuck around its 100 line. At the same time, the 100 and 200 SMAs head firmly north far below the current level, in line with the dominant bullish trend. Finally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator advances at around 60, also supportive of a bullish continuation.
In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD bullish momentum increased. The pair is developing above all its moving averages, with converging 20 and 100 SMAs providing support around the daily low. The 200 SMA keeps heading north far below the shorter ones, while technical indicators aim north well above their midlines, in line with an upcoming leg higher.
Silver price rises to near $33.00 as the US Dollar underperforms amid escalating fears of a US economic slowdown.
Investors await the US inflation data for February.
Hopes of a truce between Russia and Ukraine could weigh on the Silver price.
Silver price (XAG/USD) climbs to near $33.00 in European trading hours on Wednesday, the highest level seen in more than two weeks. The white metal strengthens as deepening fears of a United States (US) economic slowdown have kept the US Dollar (USD) on the backfoot. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, is slightly higher but remains close to an over four-month low of 103.35.
Investors expect the US economy is exposed to a recession as the tariff policies of President Donald Trump could weigh on consumer demand in the near term, assuming that tariffs will be inflationary. Fears of a US recession escalated after comments from US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick in a CBS interview on Tuesday indicated that policies by the President are worthwhile despite fears that they could lead to a recession. The appeal of precious metals, such as Silver, increases when economic uncertainty heightens.
Growing US economic risks have fuelled expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could cut interest rates sooner rather than later. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 42% chance that the central bank will cut interest rates in May, significantly increased from 10.4% seen a month ago. For fresh guidance on the Fed’s monetary policy outlook, investors await the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for February, which will be published at 12:30 GMT.
Economists expect the year-on-year headline inflation data to have risen at a slower pace of 2.9%, compared to the 3% increase seen in January. In the same period, the core CPI – which excludes volatile food and energy prices – is estimated to have decelerated to 3.2% from the prior release of 3.3%.
Silver price trades in an Ascending Triangle chart pattern on a daily timeframe, which indicates indecisiveness among market participants. The horizontal resistance of the above-mentioned chart pattern is placed from the February 14 high of $33.40, while the upward-sloping border is placed from the December 31 low of $28.78.
The 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $32.20, continues to support the Silver price.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) climbs above 60.00. A bullish momentum would trigger if the RSI sustains above that level.
Looking down, the psychological level of $30.00 will act as key support for the Silver price. While, the October 22 high of $34.87 will be the major barrier.
Silver daily chart
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Gold price continues to fluctuate near 2920.00$ level, waiting to breach this level to confirm the continuation of the bullish wave and achieve more gains in the upcoming period, noticing that stochastic attempts to gain the positive momentum to support het chances of achieving the required breach.
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Traders cash in on their US Dollar short positions heading into the US inflation test.
Gold price reclaims 21-day SMA at $2,910, with more upside likely on daily bullish RSI.
Gold price trades with caution above $2,900 early Wednesday as buyers take a breather weighing a global tariff war while gearing up for the highly-anticipated Consumer Price Index (CPI) from the United States (US) due later in the day.
Gold price looks to US inflation for a fresh boost
A typical cautious environment prevails heading into the US consumer inflation data publication, leaving Gold price gyrating in a narrow range. The US Dollar (USD) sees a short-covering rebound as traders opt to cash in on their positions following the recent downward spiral.
The renewed uptick in the USD and the US Treasury bond yields appear to check the Gold price recovery. Still, buyers could jump back into the game if the US annual headline and core CPI figures come in softer-than-expected, prompting the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) to proceed with interest rate cuts this year. In such a scenario, the Greenback and the US Treasury bond yields will likely face fresh supply, boosting the non-interest-bearing Gold price.
However, Gold price could reverse the previous rebound and head further south in case the inflation data surprises markets to the upside. Unexpectedly hot CPI data could add credence to the Fed’s cautious outlook on inflation and rate cuts, weighing negatively on the yieldless Gold price.
In the meantime, US President Donald Trump-led tit-for-tat tariffs remain in the spotlight, affecting risk tone and the traditional store of value, Gold price. White House staff confirmed on Tuesday that a global 25% tariff on all steel and aluminium imported into the US would take effect on Wednesday.
Meanwhile, US Trade Secretary Peter Navarro said that “April 2nd we begin the process with reciprocity.”
In response, Canada’s Energy Minister Jonathan Wilkinson warned that the country would impose non-tariff measures, including restrictions on oil exports to US if trade tensions with Washington intensify further.
Markets also eagerly await the US-Russia peace talks on the Ukraine conflict due later on Wednesday, especially after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky agreed late Tuesday to a 30-day ceasefire proposed by the US if Russia accepts the plan, per CNN News.
Trade war and geopolitical risks remain at the centre of the market’s attention, which leave any impact on Gold price from the US inflation data short-lived.
Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart
Gold price managed to close Tuesday above the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), now at $2,910, offering buyers a fresh hope for more upside.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stays firm above 50, justifying the bullish potential.
Should buyers sustain above the 21-day SMA at $2,910 following the US inflation prints, the February 26 high of $2,930 will be next on their radars.
Further up, Gold price will target an all-time high of $2,956, followed by the $2,970 round level.
If the selling pressure creeps in on hot US CPI data, immediate support is seen at the previous day’s low of $2,880.
Failure to resist above that level will open the door to testing the $2,850 psychological barrier.
Additional declines will likely challenge the $2,835 static support area.
Economic Indicator
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
Inflationary or deflationary tendencies are measured by periodically summing the prices of a basket of representative goods and services and presenting the data as The Consumer Price Index (CPI). CPI data is compiled on a monthly basis and released by the US Department of Labor Statistics. The YoY reading compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the same month a year earlier.The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
The EURGBP price succeeded to regain the bullish bias by surpassing 0.8315 resistance line, forming many bullish waves to notice achieving big gains by settling near 0.8430 now.
We expect to form additional support at 0.8400, along with getting continuous positive momentum by the major indicators, to increase the chances of targeting 0.8460 level, while surpassing it will extend trades towards the second target at 0.8485.
The expected trading range for today is between 0.8410 and 0.8460
Bitcoin price (BTCUSD) ended yesterday above 80474.40$ level, to hint the attempt to stop the bearish correction that dominated the recent trades, but we notice that the technical indicators show clear negative signals now, as stochastic shows overbought signals, while the EMA50 forms continuous negative pressure against the price.
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The EURJPY pair formed strong bullish rally yesterday, confirming its surrender to the domination of the bullish bias, to notice its fluctuation near the second target at 161.65, taking advantage of its stability above the MA55.
We expect to form additional support at 160.10, beside stochastic additional positive momentum, to continue forming the bullish waves and attempt to press on 162.40 resistance line, followed by monitoring its behavior due to the importance of this level to detect the next trend.
The expected trading range for today is between 160.80 and 162.40
