May arabica coffee (KCK25) today is down -4.90 (-1.23%), and May ICE robusta coffee (RMK25) is down -80 (-1.43%).

Coffee prices today erased an early rally and turned lower after meteorologist Climatempo forecast widespread showers for Brazil’s coffee-growing regions later this week.

Commodity Bulletin: From crude oil to coffee, this FREE newsletter is for industry pros and rookies alike

Coffee prices today initially moved higher, with arabica posting a 2-1/2 week high on weather concerns in Brazil and Vietnam. Cooxupe, Brazil’s largest arabica coffee co-operative, said high temperatures and below-normal rainfall last month in Brazil would negatively affect coffee yields this year. Brazil is the world’s largest producer of arabica coffee. Also, the Dak Lak weather office said last Friday that Vietnam’s main coffee-producing region, Central Highlands, is expected to get more hot weather and less rainfall for the March 21-31 period. Vietnam is the world’s largest producer of robusta coffee.

Continued supply fears are supporting coffee prices. On March 13, Cecafe reported that Brazil’s February green coffee exports fell -12% y/y to 3 million bags. Also, on January 28, Conab, Brazil’s government crop forecasting agency, forecasted that Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee crop would fall -4.4% y/y to a 3-year low of 51.81 million bags. Conab also cut its 2024 Brazil coffee crop estimate by -1.1% to 54.2 million bags from a September estimate of 54.8 million bags.

The current coffee inventory situation is mixed. ICE-monitored robusta coffee inventories rose to a 7-week high Tuesday of 4,414 lots. Conversely, ICE-monitored arabica coffee inventories fell to a 1-month low last Friday of 777,708 bags.

On the negative side for coffee, Marex Solutions said on March 7 that they expect the global coffee surplus in the 2025/26 season to widen to 1.2 million bags from +200,000 bags in the 2024/25 season.

Recent higher-than-normal rainfall in Brazil eases dry conditions and is negative for prices. Somar Meteorologia reported Monday that Brazil’s biggest arabica coffee growing area of Minas Gerais received 31.2 mm of rain in the week ended March 22, or 102% of the historical average.

A bearish factor for robusta coffee was the March 6 report from Vietnam’s General Statistics Office that showed Vietnam’s Feb coffee exports rose +6.6% y/y to 169,000 MT.

The impact of dry El Nino weather last year may lead to longer-term coffee crop damage in South and Central America. Rainfall in Brazil has consistently been below average since last April, damaging coffee trees during the all-important flowering stage and reducing the prospects for Brazil’s 2025/26 arabica coffee crop. Brazil has been facing the driest weather since 1981, according to the natural disaster monitoring center Cemaden. Also, Colombia, the world’s second-largest arabica producer, is slowly recovering from the El Nino-spurred drought last year.

Robusta coffee prices are underpinned by reduced robusta production. Due to drought, Vietnam’s coffee production in the 2023/24 crop year dropped by -20% to 1.472 MMT, the smallest crop in four years. The USDA FAS on May 31 projected that Vietnam’s robusta coffee production in the new marketing year of 2024/25 will dip slightly to 27.9 million bags from 28 million bags in the 2023/24 season. In addition, Vietnam’s General Statistics Office reported on January 10 that 2024 Vietnam coffee exports fell -17.1% y/y to 1.35 MMT. Also, the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association on March 12 cut its 2024/25 Vietnam coffee production estimate to 26.5 million bags from a December estimate of 28 million bags.

News of larger global coffee exports is bearish for prices. Conab reported on February 4 that Brazil’s 2024 coffee exports rose +28.8% y/y to a record 50.5 million bags. However, ICO reported on February 6 that Dec global coffee exports fell -12.4% y/y to 10.73 million bags, and Oct-Dec global coffee exports fell -0.8% y/y to 32.25 million bags.

The USDA’s biannual report on December 18 was mixed for coffee prices. The USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) projected that world coffee production in 2024/25 will increase +4.0% y/y to 174.855 million bags, with a +1.5% increase in arabica production to 97.845 million bags and a +7.5% increase in robusta production to 77.01 million bags. The USDA’s FAS forecasts that 2024/25 ending stocks will fall by -6.6% to a 25-year low of 20.867 million bags from 22.347 million bags in 2023/24. Separately, the USDA’s FAS on November 22 projected Brazil’s 2024/25 coffee production at 66.4 MMT, below its previous forecast of 69.9 MMT. The USDA’s FAS projects Brazil’s coffee inventories at 1.2 million bags at the end of the 2024/25 season in June, down -26% y/y.

For the 2025/26 marketing year, Volcafe on December 17 cut its 2025/26 Brazil arabica coffee production estimate to 34.4 million bags, down by about 11 million bags from a September estimate after a crop tour revealed the severity of an extended drought in Brazil. Volcafe projects a global 2025/26 arabica coffee deficit of -8.5 million bags, wider than the -5.5 million bag deficit for 2024/25 and the fifth consecutive year of deficits.

On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policyhere.

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Brent crude oil price rose in latest intraday trading, while readying to attack the pivotal resistance of $73.60, after managing to vent off overbought saturation that was apparent in the Stochastic, with positive signals emerging from it once more, amid the dominance of the upward correctional trend in the short term as the price moves alongside the trend line.

• Gold price holds the previous rebound above $3,000 ahead of mid-tier US data, Fedspeak.
• The US Dollar loses recovery momentum as Trump’s tariff threats return, supporting Gold price.
• Gold buyers are likely to extend control toward $3,050 and beyond amid bullish technicals.  

Gold price is consolidating the previous rebound above $3,000 early Wednesday, gathering pace before the next push higher. The focus is back on US tariffs and their impact on the global economies, enhancing the safe-haven appeal of Gold price.  

Gold price eyes tariff updates, record highs

US President Donald Trump is reportedly set to impose three escalating levels of tariffs, with Canada likely to be on the lower end of the April 2 tariffs, per the Toronto Star. Trump later clarified that “all we’re going to do is reciprocal,” adding that “not many exceptions on April 2 tariffs.”

At the same time, Bloomberg News reported that the US President “plans to implement copper import tariffs within weeks.”

These renewed tariff threats rekindled US economic concerns, keeping the US Dollar (USD) upside in check as investors sought refuge in the traditional safe-haven of Gold price.

Earlier this week, fears over a US economic slowdown were doused after the release of a stronger-than-expected S&P Global flash US Composite PMI Output Index. The gauge which tracks the manufacturing and services sectors, jumped to 53.5 this month from 51.6 in February.

That said, the further upside in Gold price appears intact as markets reposition, bracing for the April 2 reciprocal tariffs. However, if the US Durable Goods Orders data exceeds estimates by a wide margin, it could reinforce expectations for one interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) this year, fuelled by the upbeat PMI data on Monday.

The less dovish Fed narrative could cap the Gold price rebound while taking cues on policy from several Fed officials, who are due to speak later on Wednesday.

Also of note remains the geopolitical developments surrounding the Ukraine peace deal. The US on Tuesday reached deals with Ukraine and Russia to pause their attacks at sea and against energy targets, with Washington agreeing to push to lift some sanctions against Moscow. However, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that he would seek US President Trump’s support in providing weapons and imposing sanctions on Russia if Moscow violated the agreements.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

The technical setup on the daily chart favors buyers, with their sights set on the ascending triangle target, measured at $3,080.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is trending higher, currently at 66, which justifies the bullish momentum.

Gold price remains poised to take out the record high of $3,058 on the way to achieving the triangle target of $3,080.

Alternatively, the $3,000 round level will emerge as a powerful support. The next downside cap is aligned at the previous week’s low of $2,982.  

Further south, the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the triangle support confluence at $2,958 will be a tough nut to crack for sellers.

Natural gas prices fell and hit $3.810, thus approaching the support of $3.750, which is the key for deciding the overall trend in the near and medium term.

The price is now approaching the 55-day SMA support, which would reinforce its stability, while the Stochastic sends out positive signals, which boost the price further towards the resistance of $4.050, then $4.180.

Expected trading range today is between $3.750 and $4.050.

Today’s price forecast: Bullish as the support holds 

Natural gas prices fell and hit $3.810, thus approaching the support of $3.750, which is the key for deciding the overall trend in the near and medium term.

The price is now approaching the 55-day SMA support, which would reinforce its stability, while the Stochastic sends out positive signals, which boost the price further towards the resistance of $4.050, then $4.180.

Expected trading range today is between $3.750 and $4.050.

Today’s price forecast: Bullish as the support holds 

• Silver struggles to capitalize on the overnight move-up and ticks lower on Wednesday.
• The setup favors bulls and supports prospects for the emergence of some dip-buying.
• A convincing break and acceptance below $33.00 would negate the positive outlook.

Silver (XAG/USD) attracts some sellers during the Asian session on Wednesday and erodes a part of the previous day’s strong move up. The white metal currently trades around the $33.65-$33.60 area, down 0.30% for the day, though the downside seems limited on the back of a bullish technical setup. 

The XAG/USD last week showed some resilience below the $33.00 mark and the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart. The subsequent move-up and positive oscillators on the daily chart validate the positive outlook. Hence, any further intraday slide could be seen as a buying opportunity and remain limited near the said handle. 

A convincing break below, however, might prompt some technical selling and drag the XAG/USD further below last week’s low, around the $32.65 region, towards testing the $32.00 round figure. This is followed by supports near the $31.80 zone (March 11 low), which if broken might shift the bias in favor of bears and expose the monthly low, around the $31.10 area. 

On the flip side, bulls might now wait for a move beyond the $33.80 area, or the weekly high touched earlier this Wednesday, before placing fresh bets. The XAG/USD might then reclaim the $34.00 mark and climb further to a multi-month top, around the $34.20-$34.25 region touched on March 18, en route to a multi-year peak, around the $34.85 zone touched in October. 

XAG/USD 4-hour chart

Gold price edged down in latest intraday trading with negative signals emerging from the Stochastic, as the price tries to gather positive momentum to rise anew, while also leaning on the support of the 50-candle SMA.

It comes amid the dominance of the main upward trend while trading alongside a secondary short-term trend line, as the price tries to breach the Flag pattern, which is complementary to that positive trend in the intraday levels. 

Weekly Bullish Signal

Notice that the price level around today’s low may have some significance. It is near a previously marked price level established by an interim swing low from December at $68.82. Also, last week’s high was at $68.97. Once resistance is surpassed in an advance that price area is typically tested as support in some form. Therefore, today’s low was a successful test of support, and last Friday’s high of $68.97 was a test of resistance. That is a sign of strengthening. Moreover, a bullish continuation signal was generated on the weekly chart with a rally above last week’s high of $68.96 on Monday. That showed strength and established the beginnings of an uptrend on the higher time frame weekly chart.

Drop Below $68.80 May Test 20-Day MA

Nevertheless, if a drop below today’s low follows, there is potential support around $68.37 and the significant 20-Day MA, now at $67.97. Initial signs of a bullish reversal in crude oil triggered last week on a rally above the 20-Day line and downtrend line. Notice that they were identifying a very similar price level by the time the bullish reversal triggered last Thursday.

Given the extent of the of the recent bearish correction where the price of crude declined by $15.36 or 19%, it seems likely the current developing counter trend rally has more upside to go. That correction on a percentage basis was the largest of the prior larger four bearish corrections in crude oil, starting with the drop from the April 2024 peak.

Upside Breakout Targets $70.61 to $70.79

If today’s high is exceeded, then crude oil looks like it heads towards the next higher target zone from $70.61 to $70.79. That range begins with the 50% retracement and ends with a prior resistance level. Also, included within the range is the 127.2% extended target for the rising ABCD pattern at $70.81.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

• Silver jumps as investors seek safety amid rising stagflation risks and falling US real yields.
• Bulls clear $33.00 and $33.50; eyes now on $33.94 and key resistance at $34.86.
• Downside risks if price falls below $33.00, with support at $32.66 and 50-day SMA near $32.04.

Silver price soared on Tuesday, registering gains of over 2.10%, as a weaker US Dollar could not cap the metal’s advance amid increased fears of a stagflationary scenario, following a Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence poll. At the time of writing, the XAG/USD trades at $33.72, virtually unchanged.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

On Monday, I wrote, “Silver price formed a ‘quasi gravestone doji’ that usually appears in an uptrend, signifying a pause or end of the trend. Nevertheless, as it is preceded by a downtrend, it might indicate that bears had lost steam while buyers stepped in near the day’s lows of $32.89.” That’s what happened.

Bulls moved as a stampede and drove the precious metal higher, capitalizing on falling US yields, clearing the $33.00 and $33.50 psychological figures on its way to current spot prices. Should Silver continue to find acceptance higher, the XAG/USD could reach the March 20 peak of $33.94, ahead of testing the $34.00 figure. If surpassed, the next stop would be last October’s monthly peak at $34.86.

Conversely, if XAG/USD slips beneath $33.00, immediate support emerges at the March 21 low of $32.66. Once hurdled, the next stop is the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $32.04.

XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily

US crude oil prices kept rising in intraday trading, amid the dominance of the upward correctional trend in the short term, as the price moves alongside the trend line, with the gains achieved despite a stream of negative signals from the Stochastic, with the price attempting to vent off overbought saturation there.