Silver price fell in intraday trading after retesting the important resistance of $33.30, while hurt by piercing the secondary upward trend line previously in the short term, as the Stochastic reached overbought levels compared to the price’s movements, hinting at negative divergence, which would double negative pressure on the price.

XAU/USD Current price: $3,010.80

• Markets kick-started the week with optimism about upcoming Trump’s tariffs.
• Major economies will post inflation updates in the upcoming days.
• XAU/USD nears the $3,000 threshold and may pierce it in the upcoming sessions.

The US Dollar (USD) surged after Wall Street’s opening, resulting in XAU/USD sliding to $3,005.87. As the American session unfolds, the USD retains its broad near-term strength, resulting in the bright metal trading barely above the aforementioned intraday low.

Optimism leads the way on Monday, with stock markets hesitating throughout the first half of the day, but Wall Street soaring. The three major United States (US) indexes are up over 1.5% each at the time of writing, amid hopes President Donald Trump’s pre-announced tariffs for April 2nd would be more targeted than previously threatened. The tech sector is among the best performers after the setback suffered in the last few weeks. Government bond yields are down as investors drop safety and seek high-yielding assets.

According to the latest headlines on the matter, Trump will be announcing tariffs on autos, aluminium and pharmaceuticals in the “very near” future.

Meanwhile, US data was mostly encouraging. S&P Global published the preliminary estimates of the March Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs). The official report states that US business activity growth picked up momentum in March “ as a marked upturn in the service sector offset a renewed fall in manufacturing output.” The Composite PMI improved to 53.5 from 51.6 in February.

There will not be relevant US macroeconomic data on Tuesday, although inflation will be under the spotlight. Several major economies will post updates on price pressures, while the US is meant to release the February Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index figures on Friday.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The daily chart for XAU/USD shows its under pressure for a third consecutive day, although the decline still seems corrective. The pair keeps developing above all its moving averages, with a bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) providing dynamic support at around $2,949.20. The 100 and 200 SMAs, in the meantime, keep heading north far below the shorter one. Finally, technical indicators continue to retreat from extreme levels, heading lower, although well above their midlines.

The near-term picture is bearish. In the 4-hour chart, a mildly bearish 20 SMA at around 3,030. At the same time, technical indicators gain downward momentum within negative levels, in line with another leg south. Still, the 100 and 200 SMAs maintain their bullish slopes over $60 below the current level, limiting the odds for a steeper decline.

Support levels: 2,999.30 2,984.70 2,971.10

Resistance levels: 3,016.25 3,030.50 3,047.40

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Copper price engaged in some correctional trading on Friday before settling near $5.080, while trying to approach the major barrier of $5.1700 which still represents the door towards more upcoming gains. 

 As the price continues to be rebuffed at this barrier, while the Stochastic is attempting to exit overbought saturation levels, the chances of a downward correctional will rise, with the price potentially heading towards $4.900, however, a breach of the barrier would send the price towards $5.2900.

Expected trading range for today is between the $4.900 support and the $5.1500 resistance.

Today’s price forecast: Bearish as the barrier holds  

US crude oil prices expanded the gains in latest intraday trading and confirmed the breach of the pivotal resistance of $68.00, amid the dominance of the upward correctional trend in the short term as the price trades alongside the trend line, with ongoing support due to trading above the 50-candle SMA.

• Gold price keeps the corrective downside intact toward $3,000 early Monday.  
• Upbeat mood on WSJ’s US tariffs report and Ukraine peace deal optimism weigh on Gold price.
• Gold price stays a ‘buy-the-dips’ trade on the daily chart so long as $2,950 is defended.

The gold price is trading on the back foot early Monday, looking to continue Friday’s correction from its all-time high of $3,058. Gold price bears the brunt of a risk-on market profile, diminishing its safe-haven appeal.

Gold price finds fresh sellers; what’s next?

At the onset of a new week, the Gold price maintains its corrective downside as markets shift back to riskier assets amid renewed optimism over US President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, hopes for Chinese stimulus, and a potential Ukraine peace deal.

According to the latest report carried by the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), the White House is expected to narrow its list of tariffs due to take effect on April 2, likely omitting a set of industry-specific tariffs while applying reciprocal tariffs aimed at countries with significant trade ties to the United States (US).

Additionally, recent news that China is looking to boost consumption remains supportive of the risk flows, as markets remain hopeful of a likely end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict following Sunday’s meeting between US and Ukrainian officials in Saudi Arabia.

Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said that the talks on Sunday in Saudi Arabia were “productive and focused.” 

Attention now turns to separate talks between Russian and US delegates on Monday regarding the Ukraine peace deal, as traders brace for the preliminary readings of global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) gauges, which will likely shed light on the prospects of the global economy in the face of Trump’s tariff-induced recession fears.

Furthermore, markets will closely monitor any developments surrounding Trump’s plans to implement global reciprocal tariffs starting April 2, which drive risk sentiment and the Gold price action in the near term.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

Technically, the Gold price maintains its ‘buy-the-dips’ status amid the confirmed breakout from the ascending triangle earlier this month.

However, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) pointing south at the time of writing, a further retracement appears to be on the cards. That said, as long as the RSI holds above the midline, any pullbacks in the Gold price will be quickly bought back into.  

On the extension of the latest leg down, Gold price could test Friday’s low of $3,000, below which the previous week’s low of $2,982 will be tested.  

Further south, the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the triangle support confluence at $2,950 will be a tough nut to crack for sellers.

Conversely, if buyers jump back into the game, Gold price could retest the record high of $3,058 if buyers regain poise. The door will then open up to test the triangle target measured at $3,080.

• Silver price remains steady as the US Dollar weakens amid growing concerns over a potential US economic slowdown.
• Silver may encounter resistance as the Federal Reserve holds its outlook for two rate cuts later this year.
• Improved risk sentiment and the White House’s revised tariff strategy could exert downward pressure on Silver prices.

Silver price (XAG/USD) edges higher on Monday, trading around $33.10 per troy ounce during Asian hours after three consecutive sessions of losses. The rebound is driven by a weaker US Dollar as concerns over a potential US economic slowdown grow due to trade policies under President Donald Trump.

The US Dollar Index, which measures the USD against six major currencies, halts its three-day winning streak and trades lower near 104.10. Meanwhile, market participants await the preliminary reading of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for March.

However, Silver may face headwinds as the Federal Reserve (Fed) maintains its outlook for two rate cuts later this year, following its decision to keep the federal funds rate at 4.25%–4.5% during its March meeting. The Fed’s stance, aligning with forecasts of slower GDP growth and higher unemployment, helps counterbalance inflation concerns, which may be exacerbated by aggressive tariffs imposed by President Trump.

Additionally, Silver prices could come under pressure from safe-haven flows amid improved risk sentiment as the White House revises its tariff strategy ahead of the April 2 implementation. According to the Wall Street Journal, the administration is expected to drop some industry-specific tariffs while imposing reciprocal tariffs on countries with strong trade ties to the US.

Additionally, geopolitical tensions ease following talks between Ukrainian and US officials in Riyadh on Sunday. Efforts to broker a ceasefire continue, with President Trump advocating for an end to the three-year war. Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov discussed measures to safeguard energy and critical infrastructure, while US and Russian delegates are set for separate talks on Monday, according to Bloomberg.

Rising supply and potentially weaker-than-expected demand are set to keep oil prices in check this year, with the price likely to average in the low $70s, analysts and investment banks say.

With the U.S. new administration, experts expect the average price to be lower compared to last year amid concerns about demand as economic uncertainty spiked with the start of the trade and tariff wars.

On the supply side, OPEC+ early this month confirmed it would begin adding barrels to the market as early as next month. Of course, OPEC+ left the door open to any changes to its supply in any direction, saying in the press release that it remains “adaptable to evolving conditions,” and “Accordingly, this gradual increase may be paused or reversed subject to market conditions.”

Wall Street Banks See Oil in the Low $70s

President Donald Trump’s trade policies threw market analysts a curveball, increasing the uncertainty about this year’s demand prospects if economies slow as a result of the tariffs.

Earlier this week, Goldman Sachs cut its year-end forecast for Brent Crude prices, citing expectations of slower U.S. economic growth and additional OPEC+ supply.

Related: American Oil Is Underhedged and Heavily Exposed

“While the $10 a barrel selloff since mid-January is larger than the change in our base case fundamentals, we reduce by $5 our December 2025 forecast for Brent to $71,” the investment bank’s research team said in a note, adding that “The medium-term risks to our forecast remain to the downside given potential further tariff escalation and potentially longer OPEC+ production increases.”

The tariff wars and high spare capacity at OPEC+ producers are skewing the oil price risk to the downside in the medium term, Goldman Sachs has also said.

HSBC analysts also see risks in oil skewed to the downside amid expectations of a surplus this year and next. Stronger supply growth compared to more sluggish demand growth would leave the oil market in a 200,000-bpd surplus this year, the bank said in a note. In the previous market view, HSBC expected a relatively balanced oil market in 2025.

Analysts at Barclays see Brent Crude prices at $74 per barrel this year, down by $9 from the previous forecast, as they slashed their global demand growth estimate in mounting economic uncertainties.

“We turn neutral on oil prices relative to the curve and consensus, as we revise down our 2025 demand outlook 510,000 barrels per day due to soft high-frequency indicators and elevated economic uncertainty,” Barclays analysts wrote in a note last week carried by Reuters.

The UK-based bank now sees this year’s demand growth at 900,000 bpd.

Barclays expects U.S. crude oil production to increase by the end of this year by just 200,000 bpd compared to the end of the fourth quarter of 2024.

Wood Mackenzie also expects oil prices to be lower this year compared to 2024.

Brent crude oil prices are projected to average $73 per barrel in 2025, down by $7 per barrel from 2024, due to expectations that supply would likely outstrip demand, Wood Mackenzie’s latest monthly oil market outlook showed. The $73 per barrel forecast for this year was revised down by $0.40 from the early February monthly report.

“We’re seeing a complex interplay of supply and demand factors. While global demand is expected to increase by 1.1 million barrels per day in 2025, non-OPEC production is forecasted to rise by 1.4 million barrels per day, potentially outpacing demand growth,” said Ann-Louise Hittle, Vice President of Oils Research at Wood Mackenzie.

Key Oil Market Drivers

OPEC+ supply and the U.S. trade policies (and their effect on economies) will be the two key driving factors for oil prices this year, WoodMac says, although there are also many geopolitical issues at play, including talks on a ceasefire in Ukraine and President Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign on Iran.

WoodMac expects global economic growth at 2.8% for 2025, but this could be adjusted downward by around 0.5 percentage points depending on potential trade war scenarios.

Weaker economic growth could reduce oil demand growth by about 400,000 bpd from WoodMac’s current forecast of a 1.1 million bpd increase for 2025.

In case oil demand weakens, the annual average for Brent crude could be $3 to $5 per barrel lower than the $73 per barrel forecast, the energy consultancy says.

All these projections will depend on OPEC+ actions in terms of supply, U.S. trade and tariff policies, and global economic conditions, WoodMac noted.

For now, OPEC continues to see robust oil demand growth for both 2025 and 2026. The cartel left its demand outlook unchanged in its Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) last week. OPEC expects global oil demand to grow by 1.4 million bpd in each of 2025 and 2026.

The International Energy Agency’s monthly report, however, was bearish, as it has been typical of the IEA on oil demand for several years. The Paris-based agency expects growth to be just over 1 million bpd this year, with total global oil reaching 103.9 million bpd.

While this would be an acceleration from the estimated 830,000 bpd growth in 2024, the IEA predicts in its current balances that global oil supply may exceed demand by around 600,000 bpd this year.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

More Top Reads From Oilprice.com

• Silver plunges 1.6% as US Dollar and yields surge late Friday.
• XAG/USD hits weekly low of $32.66, pressured by a resurgent Greenback and elevated US Treasury yields.
• Sellers fail to breach $32.50 support, keeping downside capped for now, with key support at $31.91 (50-day SMA).

A rebound above $33.10 could trigger a late recovery toward $33.50, but bearish momentum remains dominant.

Silver prices plunged late in the North American session, hitting a weekly low beneath $33.00, sustaining its most significant loss since February 25, 2025. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades at $33.03, down more than 1.6%, blamed on a strong US Dollar (USD) and elevated US yields.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

Silver price dipped to a fresh weekly low of $32.66 before recovering some ground. XAG/USD is poised to finish the week with losses, though sellers remained unable to clear the $32.50 psychological support level, which could’ve sponsored a test of the $32.00 figure.

On the downside, the following key support level is the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $31.91, followed by the 100-day SMA at $31.19. At the same time, if buyers push the grey metal above the March 20-day low of $33.10, expect a late rally toward the $33.50 mark.

XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily

Even as copper prices try to hold their ground above the $5.00 barrier yesterday, a host of negative factors are emerging, as the Stochastic exited overbought levels, while $5.1700 is forming as an important barrier, thus curbing gains.

The price will likely engage in sidewaya trading, while a drop below $5.00 would activate the negative correctional path towards $4.8900, however, a resumption of gain requires a breach of $5.1700.

Expected trading range today is between $4.9000 and $5.1100.

Today’s price forecast: Correctional bearish