• Silver price struggles as traders prepare for the upcoming Fed policy decision this Wednesday.
• Trump’s policies could lead the Fed to stay cautious, given that these policies are seen as inflationary.
• The dollar-denominated metals like Silver faces concerns about the recent rebound in the US Dollar.

Silver price (XAG/USD) has retraced its gains, trading around $30.30 per troy ounce during the Asian session on Monday. The non-interest-bearing metal faces challenges with the upcoming US Federal Reserve (Fed) policy decision this week. There is widespread anticipation that the Fed will maintain current interest rates, marking the first pause in the rate-cutting cycle that began in September.

The uncertainty surrounding US President Donald Trump’s trade and immigration policies could prompt the Federal Reserve to remain cautious about cutting rates this year. Trump’s policies are perceived as inflationary, which might lead the central bank to keep rates higher for a longer period, diminishing the appeal of Silver.

Additionally, concerns about the recent rebound in the US Dollar (USD) are pressuring the precious metals including Silver. The Greenback has regained some strength amid renewed tariff concerns after Trump announced plans to impose tariffs and sanctions on Colombia, following the country’s refusal to allow US military planes carrying deported migrants.

However, in a surprising turn of events, the White House announced that Colombia has agreed to all terms, easing some of the tensions. Colombia’s Foreign Minister confirmed that the “impasse with the US has been overcome.”

The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported growing momentum among Trump’s advisers to impose 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada starting February 1. Trump’s advisers are adamant about not waiting for negotiations or talks.

Crude oil price opens today with clear negativity to move away from 75.53$ level, reinforcing the expectations of continuing the bearish correction in the upcoming sessions, affected by the previously completed head and shoulders’ pattern, waiting to test 73.90$ as a next target, noting that breaking this level will push the price towards 72.30$ direct.

The EMA50 continues to support the suggested bearish wave, which will remain valid conditioned by the price stability below 75.53$.

The expected trading range for today is between 73.30$ support and 76.30$ resistance

Trend forecast: Bearish

• Gold price drifts lower to near $2,765 in Monday’s early Asian session. 
• Trump imposed 25% tariffs on Colombia as deported migrant flights were denied, lifting the USD. 
• The Fed is expected to leave rates unchanged on Wednesday. 

Gold price (XAU/USD) edges lower to around $2,765 during the early Asian session on Monday, pressured by the renewed US Dollar (USD) demand. However, the potential downside for the precious metal might be limited amid the cautious mood and uncertainty surrounding tariff measures by US President Donald Trump. 

The Greenback strengthens as Trump kicks off a trade war with tariffs. On Sunday, Trump imposed sweeping retaliatory measures on Colombia, including tariffs and sanctions, after the South American country refused to allow two military planes carrying deported migrants to land. Trump said that he will order an emergency 25% tariff on all Colombian goods coming into the US, which will be raised to 50% in a week. This headline weighs on the USD-denominated commodity price. 

Gold traders expect the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to hold interest rates steady at its January meeting on Wednesday. The FOMC Press Conference will be closely watched as it might offer some hints about the US rate path. At the World Economic Forum last week, Trump called for an immediate interest rate cut, causing the USD to hit its lowest level in over a month and supporting the Gold price. However, if the Fed officials deliver hawkish remarks this week, this might drag the non-yielding yellow metal lower. 

Citi increased its oil price forecast today with expectations for geopolitical conflicts to drive the price of the energy source higher in 2025. The bank expects Brent crude to rise to an average of $67 a barrel this year, compared to its prior estimate of $62 per barrel. Citi’s average 2025 forecast for WTI crude was also increased to $63 a barrel.

A Citi note explained its reasoning behind these updated oil price forecasts. The firm believes “heightened, sustained geopolitical risks in Iran/Russia-Ukraine” could “potentially wipe out the 2025 oil balance surplus.”

How Will Trump Affect Oil Prices in 2025?

While Citi expects oil prices to increase, a wild card could change things. The bank notes that President Donald Trump “appears intent on dealmaking.” This could alter oil prices if the new President can resolve geopolitical conflicts between nations.

Additionally, President Trump wants to increase oil production in the U.S. He’s already announced an energy emergency, allowing additional oil production and looser regulations for the sector. Trump also rolled back the government’s climate change commitments and electric vehicle (EV) mandate, putting oil back in focus as the main energy source in the U.S. moving forward.

How Does This Affect Oil Stocks?

Oil stocks will likely benefit from the Trump administration’s stances. Fewer regulations and faster permit grants could see the market take off over the next four years. As such, investors might consider taking a stake in oil stocks to get ahead of those potential gains.

Turning to the TipRanks comparison tool, traders will see some of the best oil stocks. If it’s a huge upside potential and Wall Street’s backing that traders seek, then ConocoPhillips (COP) is one of the best bets with its Strong Buy rating and $134.33 price target, representing a potential 28.82% upside. Chevron (CVX) is another powerful option with the same rating and a $175.56 price target, representing a possible 10.85% upside.

See more oil stock comparisons

• Silver rebounds from $30.36, crosses 50-day SMA but struggles with higher resistance levels.
• RSI indicates rising buyer interest; however, significant resistance at $32.32 still challenges momentum.
• For bearish trend to resume, silver must fall below 200-day SMA and $30.00, with next supports at $29.51 and $28.89.

Silver price recovers some ground and trades with gains of 0.91% yet it has failed to clear key resistance at the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $30.95. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades at $30.70 after bouncing off a low of $30.36.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

Silver recovered after testing the 200-day SMA near $30.05 and rose above the 50-day SMA but faces stir resistance at $30.95. The trend is tilted to the downside as the grey metal carved a series of successively lower highs and lower lows. Even though the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests that buyers are gathering momentum, the grey metal has to surpass $32.32, the latest cycle high hit on December 12.

On the other hand, sellers must surpass the 200-day SMA and the $30.00 mark for a bearish continuation. Once taken out, the next support would be the January 13 low of $29.51, followed by the January 1 low of $28.89.

XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily

Gold price shows sideways trades now, and it might test the key support base 2762.00$ before turning back to rise again, as it is affected by stochastic negativity that hinders the mission of continuing the rise.

Until now, the bullish trend scenario still suggested for today unless breaking the mentioned support and holding below it, reminding you that our main waited target reaches 2790.00$.

The expected trading range for today is between 2755.00$ support and 2795.00$ resistance.

Trend forecast: Bullish

Short-term Series of Lower Swing Highs

Yesterday’s high was the second lower swing high that has occurred since a bearish reversal followed the 4.37 trend high from last week. The day ended down and today’s drop below yesterday’s low of 3.86 earlier in the trading session marked it has a swing high.

There is a possibility that the lower swing high is retained and the developing small downtrend (countertrend decline) of lower swing highs may be setting the stage for a deeper correction. However, today’s bullish price action following a successful test of support at the 20-Day line and possibility of a strong close, leaves open the prospect of a continuation of Wednesday’s bounce off support at the 20-Day MA

Bullish Above 4.05

On the upside, a breakout above the 4.05 swing high will trigger a continuation of the bull advance from Wednesday’s low of 3.71. That low was also a higher swing low and now part of the price structure of the uptrend, which is also near support represented by the uptrend line.

The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, where resistance might be seen, is at 4.09 and it is followed by the 78.6% retracement at 4.20. Moreover, there are two additional potential resistance areas. There is also a monthly high at 4.20, which provides confirmation for that price level as it matches the Fibonacci level.

Bearish Below 3.71

Outlook turns bearish if there is a drop below this week’s low at 3.71 as it is key trend support of a higher swing low. However, there is an identified potential support zone from around 3.70 and 3.64, which could either hold and lead to a bullish reversal, or natural gas breaks down through the zone and heads lower towards 3.53 or so.

Bitcoin price (BTCUSD) traded with clear positivity to reach the thresholds of the key resistance 106000.00$, and as we mentioned this morning, breaching this level will activate the positive effect of the bullish pennant pattern and lead the price to continue the bullish trend that targets 108350.45$ followed by 112000.00$ levels mainly.

On the other hand, we should note that breaking 101680.00$ will stop the bullish wave and push the price to decline towards 95195.00$ areas before any new attempt to rise.

The expected trading range for today is between 102000.00$ support and 108000.00$ resistance.

Trend forecast: Bullish

At 13:47 GMT, Natural Gas Futures are trading $3.832, down $0.113 or -2.86%.

Is Weather Demand Losing Its Grip on Prices?

The latest outlook from NatGasWeather forecasts Arctic air to maintain strong natural gas demand through Friday, with subzero temperatures blanketing much of the interior U.S. and lows reaching the teens across the South. However, this demand will ease heading into the weekend as milder temperatures settle over the southern and eastern U.S., with highs climbing into the 40s-60s and even 70s in parts of Texas.

Looking further ahead, the weather pattern for early February appears less supportive, with mild conditions dominating key consuming regions. While frosty air will persist in the northern Rockies and Plains, it will not extend far enough south to drive significant demand. This milder outlook is weighing heavily on the market, keeping bullish sentiment in check despite a notable surplus-to-deficit shift in inventory balances this week.

Storage Report Undermines Bullish Momentum

The EIA’s latest storage report showed a draw of 223 Bcf for the week ending January 17, bringing total inventories to 2,892 Bcf. While this was 57 Bcf lower than the same time last year, it remained 21 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,871 Bcf.

Traders interpreted the smaller withdrawal as a sign of improving supply dynamics, especially as Lower 48 production remains robust. Meanwhile, easing heating demand is expected to prevent significant inventory depletion, keeping storage levels within the five-year historical range. These factors are adding downward pressure to prices and tempering bullish sentiment.

Market Forecast: Bearish Near-Term Outlook

With forecasts pointing to milder weather across key regions and storage data reflecting improving supply conditions, natural gas prices are likely to face further downside in the near term.

Ethereum price (ETHUSD) shows positive trades after testing 3222.00$ in the previous sessions, to support the continuation of the expected bullish trend on the intraday and short-term basis, waiting to visit 3425.50$ initially, noting that breaching this level will extend the bullish to reach 3678.00$ areas.

Holding above 3222.00$ is important to the continuation of the bullish trend, as breaking it represents the key to turn to decline to achieve additional bearish correction that its next target reaches 3017.30$ areas.

The expected trading range for today is between 3170.00$ support and 3450.00$ resistance.

Trend forecast: Bullish