Gold price shows new positive trades to start the attempts to breach 2700.00$ level, reinforcing the expectations of continuing the bullish trend for the rest of the day, reminding you that our next target is located at 2725.00$.
The bullish channel organizes the suggested bullish wave, which will remain valid unless breaking 2672.00$ and holding with a daily close below it.
The expected trading range for today is between 2680.00$ support and 2720.00$ resistance.
Gold rallies as U.S. Treasury yields dip after rising unemployment claims and strong consumer spending.
Retail sales up 0.4% MoM in December, November’s figures revised up to 0.8%.
Expectations for 2025 Fed rate cuts grow, with two reductions anticipated by year-end.
Gold soared after economic data from the United States (US) showed that consumer spending remained solid, while the number of people filing for unemployment benefits rose. This weighed on US Treasury yields and boosted the precious metal, which traded above the $2,700 figure for the first time since December last year.
Gold ascends to new highs, surpassed $2,700 as trades eye further Fed rate cuts
The yellow metal and the Greenback are trending up after Retail Sales for December rose by 0.4% MoM, missing the mark, but an upward revision of November figures to 0.8% showed the economy remains robust. On the negative front, Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending January 11 increased by 217K from 201K in the previous week, missing estimates of 210K.
Even though Retail Sales were solid and the US Treasury yield remained firm, Bullion buyers remained in charge, driving prices higher. Wednesday’s US inflation figures increased the chances that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will further ease policy in 2025.
Market participants are pricing in near-even odds that the Fed would cut rates twice by the end of 2025 and see the first reduction in June.
Recent Fed speaking has shown that officials remained concerned about the upcoming Trump administration’s policies, some of which, like applying tariffs, are inflation-prone.
Ahead this week the economic docket will feature housing data and the release of US Industrial Production data.
XAU/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
Gold’s uptrend is set to continue, but buyers will face key resistance at $2,726, the December 12 high. A breach of the latter will expose $2,750 and the record high of $2,790. Conversely, if XAU/USD slips below $2,700, a pullback is seen toward the January 13 swing low of $2,656.
Momentum favors further upside, as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) depicts.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Fresh hopes for a Federal Reserve rate cut in May put pressure on the US Dollar.
China will release Q4 Gross Domestic Product figures early on Friday.
XAU/USD maintains the bullish bias and looks to retest the $2,790 all-time high.
Spot Gold keeps advancing on Thursday, posting fresh highs above the $2,720.00 level in the mid-American session. The market mood soured ahead of the United States (US) opening, as macroeconomic data was tepid while Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller said that interest rate cuts could come sooner and faster than expected if the disinflation trend holds up. As a result, investors lifted bets for an interest rate cut in May.
Earlier in the day, the United States reported that Retail Sales rose a modest 0.4% in December, below the 0.6% expected and the previously revised 0.8%. At the same time, Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended January 10 increased by 217K, worse than the 210K expected. The US Dollar (USD) lost ground with the news, as Wall Street struggles to post gains.
Market players will now shift the focus to China, as the country will publish early in Asia Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures. Additionally, China will release December Industrial Production and Retail Sales.
XAU/USD short-term technical outlook
Technical readings in the daily chart support additional XAU/USD gains. The pair extends gains above its moving averages, with bullish 20 and 100 Simple Moving Averages (SMA) converging at around $2,643, both gaining upward traction. At the same time, technical indicators extended their advances within positive levels, with room to extend their advance in the upcoming sessions.
In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, Gold is overbought yet there are no signs of upward exhaustion. The 20 SMA accelerated its advance far below the current level, while the 100 SMA is about to cross above the 200 SMA, both far below the shorter one. Finally, technical indicators have partially lost their positive momentum but keep heading north despite developing at extreme levels. A relevant resistance comes at around $2,725, with gains beyond it exposing the all-time high in the $2,790 region.
Gold rallies as U.S. Treasury yields dip after rising unemployment claims and strong consumer spending.
Retail sales up 0.4% MoM in December, November’s figures revised up to 0.8%.
Expectations for 2025 Fed rate cuts grow, with two reductions anticipated by year-end.
Gold soared after economic data from the United States (US) showed that consumer spending remained solid, while the number of people filing for unemployment benefits rose. This weighed on US Treasury yields and boosted the precious metal, which traded above the $2,700 figure for the first time since December last year.
Gold ascends to new highs, surpassed $2,700 as trades eye further Fed rate cuts
The yellow metal and the Greenback are trending up after Retail Sales for December rose by 0.4% MoM, missing the mark, but an upward revision of November figures to 0.8% showed the economy remains robust. On the negative front, Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending January 11 increased by 217K from 201K in the previous week, missing estimates of 210K.
Even though Retail Sales were solid and the US Treasury yield remained firm, Bullion buyers remained in charge, driving prices higher. Wednesday’s US inflation figures increased the chances that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will further ease policy in 2025.
Market participants are pricing in near-even odds that the Fed would cut rates twice by the end of 2025 and see the first reduction in June.
Recent Fed speaking has shown that officials remained concerned about the upcoming Trump administration’s policies, some of which, like applying tariffs, are inflation-prone.
Ahead this week the economic docket will feature housing data and the release of US Industrial Production data.
XAU/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
Gold’s uptrend is set to continue, but buyers will face key resistance at $2,726, the December 12 high. A breach of the latter will expose $2,750 and the record high of $2,790. Conversely, if XAU/USD slips below $2,700, a pullback is seen toward the January 13 swing low of $2,656.
Momentum favors further upside, as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) depicts.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Goldman Sachs’ stock price (GS) rallied in the intraday levels, shaking off negative pressure from the 50-day SMA, amid the dominance of the main upward trend in the medium term, and accompanied by a surge in trading volumes, as the stock tries to tackle the pivotal resistance of $611.90, while managing to vent off overbought saturation in the RSI with positive signals streaming out of it.
Therefore we expect more gains for the price, provided the resistance of $611.90 was breached, targeting the next one at $654.54.
Silver price climbs to near $31.00 as traders reassess Fed monetary policy outlook after mixed US inflation data.
Traders expect the Fed to cut interest rates twice this year.
Silver price attempts to break above the upward-sloping trendline around $30.85.
Silver price (XAG/USD) moves higher to near $31.00 in Thursday’s European session. The white metal gains as traders have raised bets supporting the Federal Reserve (Fed) to deliver more than one interest rate cut this year.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders are pricing in two interest rate cuts this year, the first coming in June instead of September, as forecasted before the December inflation data were released.
As measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), headline inflation accelerated to 2.9%, as expected; however, the core reading—which excludes volatile food and energy prices—surprisingly rose at a slower pace of 3.2%.
Typically, signs of acceleration in Fed dovish bets bode well for non-yielding assets, such as Silver.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, ticks higher to near 109.00 but has corrected from the two-year high of 110.00. 10-year US Treasury yields edge higher to near 4.66% but have come down from its yearly high of 4.80%.
Silver technical analysis
Silver price gathers strength to break above the upward-sloping trendline around $30.85, which is plotted from the 29 February 2024 low of $22.30 on a daily timeframe.
The white metal rebounded strongly after discovering strong buying interest near the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is around $29.45. It then climbed above the 20-day EMA, which is around $30.00, suggesting a bullish near-term trend.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) jumps to near 60.00. A fresh bullish momentum would trigger if its manages to break above 60.00.
Silver daily chart
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
The EURUSD price didn’t show any strong move since this morning, to continue fluctuating around the EMA50, thus, no change to the expected bearish trend scenario for today, which depends on the price stability below 1.0325$, while its targets begin at 1.0220$ and extend to 1.0100$ after breaking the previous level.
The expected trading range for today is between 1.0200$ support and 1.0360$ resistance
The AUDUSD price managed to touch the main bearish channel’s resistance line, and begins to rebound bearishly to attempt to build bearish wave on the intraday and short-term basis, on its way to achieve negative targets that start at 0.6140$ and extend to 0.6075$.
Note that breaking 0.6200$ will complete forming bearish flag pattern that reinforce the expectations to decline in the upcoming period, while breaching 0.6245$ will stop the bearish trend and lead the price to start bullish correction on the intraday and short-term basis.
The expected trading range for today is between 0.6160$ support and 0.6260$ resistance
Gold price consolidates gains near $2,700, with eyes on US Retail Sales data.
Tame US inflation data revive aggressive Fed rate cut talks, undermining the US Dollar and Treasury bond yields.
Gold price looks north amid a bullish technical setup on the daily chart.
Gold price is trading close to the highest level in five weeks just above $2,700 in Thursday’s Asian trading. Traders look forward to a fresh batch of US economic data for the next leg higher in Gold price.
Attention turns to US Jobless Claims and Retail Sales data
This week’s tame inflation data from the US brought back expectations of interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) on the table, which provided extra legs to the correction in the US Dollar (USD) and the US Treasury bond yields from multi-month highs. This accentuated the Gold price upside, with buyers briefly recapturing the $2,700 in early Asian trades this Thursday.
Traders piled up bets on a Fed rate cut in June, pricing in rising odds of a second rate reduction in 2025 after inflation data. The report indicated the recent market expectations of pricing out of rate cuts this year were excessive.
US Consumer Price Index (CPI) advanced in line with estimates at an annual rate of 2.9% in December from November’s 2.7%. But core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose by 3.2%, below forecasts for 3.3%. On Tuesday, the US annual PPI rose 3.3% in December, missing the expected 3.4% growth, while the core PPI inflation rose to 3.5% year-on-year (YoY) in the same period, compared to the market forecast of 3.8%.
The dovish Fed expectations, Chinese stimulus hopes and fading concerns over US President-elect Trump’s disruptive trade tariffs support the prevalent risk-on market mood, keeping the safe-haven US Dollar broadly subdued and Gold price at higher levels.
Looking ahead, the focus shifts to more economic data releases from the US, including the December Retail Sales and the weekly Jobless Claims, which will provide more clarity on the Fed’s interest rate trajectory beyond January. Markets have fully priced in a rate-pause decision at the Fed’s policy meeting later this month. Gold price will also remain at the mercy of any speculations surrounding Trump’s tariff plans.
Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart
The short-term technical outlook for Gold price continues to support Gold buyers, courtesy of last week’s symmetrical triangle breakout.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) points higher above the midline, currently near 60, suggesting that Gold price remains a ‘buy-the-dips’ trade in the coming days.
Gold price must seek a daily candlestick closing above the $2,700 barrier to initiate a fresh uptrend toward the $2,750 psychological level.
Ahead of that level, the December 12 high of $2,726 will challenge bearish commitments.
Conversely, strong support is located at the January 15 low of $2,670, below which sellers must crack the $2,640 demand area.
That zone is the confluence of the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), 50-day SMA, 100-SMA and the triangle convergence, making it a powerful support.
If the downside momentum accelerates, the January 6 low of $2,615 could come to buyers’ rescue.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
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