• Gold price takes a breather on Friday as traders brace for profit-taking.
• The US Dollar licks wounds with US Treasury yields on cautious optimism and dovish Fed bets.
• Gold price could retreat to the daily support line at $2,892 amid overbought RSI.

Gold price is taking a breather while holding near $2,930 early Friday, having witnessed two straight days of impressive gains.

Gold price consolidates weekly gains          

Despite the pause, Gold price remains on track to book its seventh straight weekly gain, mainly supported by US President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs updates and increased expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) could stick with its easing trajectory this year.

Following a hot January US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, the Producer Price Index (PPI) also surprised markets to the upside. However, the index’s components cooled down, reinforcing dovish expectations around the Fed’s rate cut prospects.

Reuters reported, “Following the PPI data, US rate futures priced in 31 basis points (bps) of easing this year, compared with 27 bps late on Wednesday, according to LSEG calculations. The next rate reduction is expected either at the October or December meeting.”

This led to a sharp sell-off in the US Treasury bond yields and the US Dollar (USD), benefiting the non-yielding Gold price.

Additionally, the narrative that the plan for Trump’s reciprocal tariffs is in the works and would not be imposed immediately relieved global stocks and weighed heavily on the haven demand for the USD across the board, pushing Gold price northward.

Gold traders shrugged off prospects of Russia-Ukraine peace talks as the focus remained on Trump’s tariffs and the US inflation data.

On Thursday, the Kremlin came out with a statement that “there is a political will on both sides to engage in dialogue and search for a settlement when asked about a possible Russia-Ukraine peace deal.

Looking ahead, Gold price could see a profit-taking decline as traders cash in their Gold longs after this week’s record rally and heading into a long weekend. Fresh developments surrounding Trump’s tariffs and the broader market sentiment will continue playing a pivotal role in the Gold price direction.

The high-impact US Retail Sales data will be also closely followed for fresh cues on the Fed’s policy outlook and the value of the USD, eventually impacting Gold price.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

The daily chart shows that Gold price could pull back briefly toward the rising trendline support at $2,892.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has turned flat while holding within the overbought territory, suggesting a fresh dip could be in the offing.

If the selling pressure intensifies below the abovementioned support level, the Gold price could accelerate the downside toward the $2,850 psychological barrier.

Conversely, if the upside momentum regains traction, Gold buyers will challenge the record high of $2,943.

The next relevant resistance is seen at the $3,000 round level.

Natural gas price continued its bullish rally to record 3.800$ level yesterday, approaching the major resistance to push it to form temporary negative rebound by fluctuating near 3.710$.

Note that the continuous fluctuation below the current resistance and stochastic exit from the overbought areas might increase the negative pressures on the price, to expect crawling towards 3.620$ level soon, followed by attempting to test the additional support at 3.520$.

The expected trading range for today is between 3.620$ and 3.830$

Trend forecast: Bearish

Silver price provides more bullish bias to approach the intraday bullish channel’s resistance line that appears on the chart, which meets the waited target at 32.86$, getting continuous positive support by the EMA50, to reinforce the chances of continuing the rise in the upcoming sessions.

XAU/USD Current price: $2,915.67

• Expectations about upcoming US President Donald Trump announcement lifted the mood.
• The United States will publish January Retail Sales on Friday.
• XAU/USD stable above $2,900 and with scope to retest its record high.

Spot Gold keeps grinding higher on Thursday, currently trading at around $2,920 a troy ounce. Financial markets turned optimistic in early Asia session amid hopes the conflict between Russia and Ukraine could come to an end with the intervention of the United States (US).

Risk appetite was further fueled by market talks pointing at US President Donald Trump announcing gradual tariffs later in the day. Trump imposed 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminium imports to the country at the beginning of the week and anticipated another round of levies to be announced later today. CNBC reported that such fresh tariffs would not come into effect today, adding that there would be a delay of “some months.”

Meanwhile, Trump announced through social media that he will give a news conference on reciprocal tariffs today at 13:00 EST or 18:00 GMT.

Data-wise, market players ignored higher-than-anticipated US Producer Price Index (PPI) data. Inflation at wholesale levels rose by 0.4% on a monthly basis in January, vs the 0.3% anticipated by market players. From a year earlier, the PPI was up 3.5% against expectations of a 3.2% advance. Initial Jobless Claims, on the other hand, rose by less than expected, up 213K in the week ended February 7. On Friday, the macroeconomic calendar will include January US Retail Sales.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The XAU/USD pair has recovered its bullish tone, posting a higher high and a higher low on a daily basis. The same chart shows technical indicators consolidate within overbought territory, somehow hinting at a corrective slide yet far from confirming it. Finally, the pair keeps developing above all its moving averages, with a bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) advancing beyond the 100 and 200 SMAs while providing mid-term dynamic support at around $2,808.30.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the risk skews to the upside. The XAU/USD pair is finding intraday support at around a mildly bullish 20 SMA, currently at $2,904.60. The 100 and 200 SMAs, in the meantime, keep advancing far below the shorter one. Finally, technical indicators turned north within positive levels, favoring another leg north.

Support levels: 2,904.60 2,889.80 2,872.30

Resistance levels: 2,925.10 2,942.50 2,960.00

At 14:05 GMT, Natural Gas Futures are trading $3.733, up $0.168 or +4.71%.

Cold Weather and Storage Draws Keep Prices Elevated

Winter conditions remain a key driver of natural gas prices, with Arctic temperatures expected to persist across northern Europe and parts of the U.S. through late February. NatGasWeather forecasts “high” national demand in the coming week as frigid systems bring subzero temperatures across much of the interior U.S.

Meanwhile, today’s EIA report is expected to show a storage draw of 91-96 Bcf, significantly below the five-year average draw of 144 Bcf. Warmer-than-normal conditions in much of the U.S., excluding the northern regions, and stronger wind energy generation last week have contributed to a smaller-than-expected withdrawal. However, if the reported draw is larger than estimates, it could add further fuel to the current rally.

EU Price Cap Proposal and Russia-Ukraine Talks Shake Global Gas Markets

U.S. gas prices are also reacting to developments in the European market. Reports that the European Commission is considering a price cap to control energy costs have been met with opposition from energy industry groups, which warn of potential market instability.

In a separate development, European gas prices tumbled after reports that the U.S. and Russia have agreed to initiate peace talks regarding the war in Ukraine. A resolution could lead to increased Russian pipeline flows through Ukraine, potentially restoring Europe’s cost competitiveness to pre-crisis levels. Dutch TTF futures fell 6.3% following the news, after briefly trading above 58 euros per megawatt-hour earlier this week.

Market Forecast: Short-Term Bullish, but Watch for Resistance

With cold weather sustaining demand and storage withdrawals tightening supplies, natural gas prices are positioned to climb further. If the market maintains its strength above $3.505, a move toward $4.020 is likely. However, traders should remain cautious, as natural gas markets tend to fade rallies quickly. A weaker-than-expected storage draw or a shift toward milder forecasts could trigger a reversal, bringing the 50-day moving average at $3.138 back into play.

Copper price returned to renew the bullish attempts after holding above 50% Fibonacci correction level at 4.5400$, to surpass 4.6900$ resistance line this morning and hint its preparation to resume the bullish attack by settling near 4.7100$.

The price needs to gather the additional positive momentum to manage to hold above the mentioned resistance and ease the mission of recording additional gains that might extend towards 4.8050$ and 4.8920$ levels soon.

The expected trading range for today is between 4.6500$ and 4.8050$

Trend forecast: Bullish

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• Silver price grips gains near $32.30 amid weakness in the US Dollar and uncertainty over Trump’s reciprocal tariffs.
• The US Dollar declines as optimism over Russia-Ukraine peace talks has improved market sentiment.
• Hot US CPI data for January has boosted expectations for the Fed’s “higher for longer” interest rates.

Silver price (XAG/USD) holds onto gains near Wednesday’s high around $32.30 in Thursday’s European session. The white metal remains firm amid uncertainty that United States (US) President Donald Trump will announce reciprocal tariffs on Thursday.

The White House said on Wednesday that US President Donald Trump could announce his reciprocal tariff plan before he meets with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Thursday.

Such a scenario would deepen fears of a global trade war, which will boost the safe-haven appeal of precious metals, such as Silver.

In the election campaign, Trump said that he would implement a policy of “an eye for an eye, a tariff for a tariff, same exact amount.”

Meanwhile, the market sentiment is risk-on as leaders of Russia and Ukraine have agreed to peace talks after a three-year-long war. The Silver price had a strong rally when Russia and Ukraine entered a war.

Apart from the uncertainty over Trump’s tariffs, the Silver price clings to gains due to weakness in the US Dollar (USD). Risk-on market mood due to Russia-Ukraine peace talks has weighed heavily on the US Dollar, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) declining to near 107.50.

The US Dollar weakens even though the hot US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for January has boosted expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates in the current range of 4.25%-4.50% for longer. Technically, higher interest rates for longer bodes poorly for the Silver price.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price continues to face pressure near the immediate resistance of $32.50, which is plotted from the December 9 high. The outlook of the white metal remains bullish as it holds above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around $30.95.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) falls back inside the 40.00-60.00 range, suggesting that the momentum is not bullish for now. However, the upside bias is intact.

Looking down, the upward-sloping trendline from the August 8 low of $26.45 will be the key support for the Silver price around $29.50. While, the October 31 high of $33.90 will be the key barrier.

Silver daily chart

Crude oil price confirmed breaking 72.30$ level after closing yesterday below it, starting today with strong decline to head towards expected testing to 70.30$ level, noting that the price returns to the bearish channel that appears on the chart.

• Gold price regains $2,900 as looming Trump’s reciprocal tariffs risk a trade war.
• The US Dollar stays subdued despite hot US CPI inflation data and hawkish Fed Chair Powell.
• Gold price sees dip-buying amid a 4H bullish technical setup ahead of US PPI data.

Gold price is trying to hold above the $2,900-mark early Thursday, having witnessed intense volatility a day ago. The focus once again remains on the US fundamentals and US President Donald Trump’s tariff plans for a fresh boost to Gold prices.

Gold price capitalizes on Trump’s tariffs-led nervousness

White House noted late Wednesday that the earlier announced reciprocal tariffs by President Trump could come by on Thursday, keeping the haven demand for the traditional safety net – Gold price – intact.

However, Gold traders remain wary of creating additional bullish positions in the bright metal amid increased expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could pause its easing trajectory until the third quarter of this year. The hotter-than-expected January US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data published on Wednesday reinforced the hawkish bets surrounding the Fed’s interest rates outlook.

The annual headline CPI increased 3% in January, up from 2.9% the previous month. The core inflation unexpectedly rose to 3.3% over the year in January versus December’s 3.2% growth. Speaking with US lawmakers Wednesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the latest data show we’re close but not there on inflation, implying that the Fed is in no rush to cut rates further.

The Fed’s hawkishness triggered a sharp rally in the US Treasury bond yields on Wednesday, fuelling a steep decline in Gold price to near the $2,865 region. Gold buyers quickly jumped in on bargain hunting, lifting the yellow metal to settle back above $2,900. Gold is widely considered a hedge against inflation, which remains at the top of the market’s concerns.  

Attention now turns toward the US Producer Price Index (PPI) data due later in Thursday’s American session for further cues on the Fed’s policy stance, which could influence the non-interest-bearing Gold price.

However, any downside in Gold price will likely remain cushioned as Trump’s reciprocal tariffs could raise tensions surrounding a potential trade war worldwide. The European Union (EU) will prioritize negotiations over retaliatory countermeasures to avoid a damaging trade war, officials signalled earlier on Wednesday.

Gold price technical analysis: Four-hour chart

Following a brief dip below the critical 21-four hourly Simple Moving Average (SMA), now at $2,897, Gold price managed to recapture the latter, fuelling a gradual recovery.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds well above the midline, currently near 63.50, backing the upside potential.

The further recovery will need acceptance above the $2,910 round level on a four-hourly candlestick closing basis.

The next topside barrier is aligned at the record high of $2,943.

On the flip side, a four-hourly candlestick closing below the 21-four hourly SMA at $2,897 will reinforce the selling interest, calling for a test of the 50-four hourly SMA at $2,866.

The last line of defense for Gold buyers is the 100-four hourly SMA at $2,816.