• The Gold price attracts some buyers to around $2,570 in Monday’s early Asian session. 
• Traders wind back expectations for a Fed rate cut in December, weighing on the yellow metal.
• Geopolitical risks could boost the Gold price, a traditional safe-haven asset. 

The Gold price (XAU/USD) rebounds to near $2,570, snapping the six-day losing streak during the early Asian trading hours on Monday. However, the strength of the US Dollar (USD) might cap the upside for the precious metal. 

The Greenback rally in the wake of Donald Trump’s election win could exert some selling pressure on the USD-denominated Gold price. The expectations of higher inflation next year due to Donald Trump’s policies have led to fewer expected rate cuts. 

Furthermore, traders pared back expectations for lower rates in December after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that the US central bank would be in no rush to cut, citing the “remarkably good” performance of the economy. Higher interest rates generally drag the Gold price lower, as it makes holding non-yielding assets like gold less appealing.

On the other hand, the rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia could boost the safe-haven flows, benefiting the yellow metal. President Joe Biden’s administration has allowed Ukraine to use US arms to strike inside Russia in a significant reversal of Washington’s policy in the Ukraine-Russia conflict, per Reuters. 

The gold price continued its post-US election correction this week, sinking to nearly US$2,540 per ounce.

Although it recovered to end the period at around US$2,560, the yellow metal hasn’t been at these levels for about two months. Market watchers see US dollar strength and higher bond yields weighing on its performance.

The US Dollar Index has moved higher since Donald Trump’s victory in the American election, supported by expectations that the president-elect will follow through on enacting tariffs and tightening immigration — these are policies that could boost inflation and in doing so potentially slow the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts.

While gold tends to fare better when rates are low, the opposite is true for the dollar.

Yields for the 10 Year Treasury have moved higher since voting day too, although they’ve seen some bumpiness.

It’s also worth noting that the latest US consumer price index (CPI) data came out on Wednesday (November 13). CPI rose 0.2 percent month-on-month and was up 2.6 percent year-on-year. Meanwhile, core CPI, which excludes the more volatile food and energy categories, was up 0.3 percent from September and 3.3 percent from a year ago.

The numbers were in line with forecasts across the board, bolstering expectations that the Fed will reduce rates by another 25 basis points at its December meeting. However, those expectations took a hit on Thursday (November 14), when Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that the economy isn’t sending signals that rates need to come down quickly.

“The economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates. The strength we are currently seeing in the economy gives us the ability to approach our decisions carefully,” he commented.

What’s next for the gold price in this environment? The Investing News Network will be attending the New Orleans Investment Conference next week, and we’ll be asking experts like Rick Rule, David Morgan, Lobo Tiggre and more for their thoughts. Please send an email to cmcleod@investingnews.com to let us know what questions you’d like answered.

Want more YouTube content? Check out our expert market commentary playlist, which features interviews with key figures in the resource space. If there’s someone you’d like to see us interview, please send an email to cmcleod@investingnews.com.

And don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time updates!

Securities Disclosure: I, Charlotte McLeod, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

Editorial Disclosure: The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.

• Silver struggles to maintain momentum, hovering near the 100-day SMA at $30.34 with a downward bias.
• Potential further decline could see silver test key supports at $30.00 and the 200-day SMA at $28.63.
• A rebound above $31.00 could challenge higher resistances, targeting the 50-day SMA at $31.51 and beyond.

Silver’s price fell over 0.70% beneath $30.30 after robust US Retail Sales data suggested the Federal Reserve could gradually ease policy. At the time of writing, the XAG/USD trades at $30.21 after hitting a daily peak of $30.81.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

Silver price remains subdued at around the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $30.34. Nevertheless, the mid-term bias is tilted to the downside, and once bears push prices below August’s 26 high turned support at $30.18, they will test the psychological $30.00 mark. A breach of the latter will expose the 200-day SMA at $28.63, followed by the September 6 swing low of $27.69.

If Silver moves back above $31.00, this could pave the way for challenging the 50-day SMA at $31.51. Once surpassed, XAG/USD’s next resistance would be $32.00.

Oscillators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hint that further XAG/USD’s downside is seen, as RSI remains shy of being oversold.

XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily

Successful Test of 20-Day MA is Bullish

Today’s price action shows a successful retest of support around the 20-Day MA, which followed the first successful test on November 4. It potentially clears the way for a possible new breakout attempt about the 3.02 high (B). The last attempt failed attempt occurred on Wednesday. It remains to be seen whether that high retains resistance or whether a sustainable bullish breakout triggers. A daily close above 3.02 would confirm a breakout and put natural gas in a position to test higher potential targets.

Near-term Symmetry Points to 3.22

The first target would be the swing high from August at 3.16. But that level should be easily surpassed given the potential for a strong market response. There are two patterns that would be triggered. A sustained rally above 3.02 would trigger a breakout of a large symmetrical triangle pattern, as well as a continuation of the rising trend that began from the August swing low.

If the 3.16 high can be exceeded, the completion of a small rising ABCD pattern (purple) point to 3.22. But that is a relatively easy target to hit and possibly surpass. A more significant target range looks to be from 3.35 to 3.45, which is where there is a confluence of targets from Fibonacci projections and price structure.

Watch Behavior Following a Breakout

Regardless of the potential for higher targets to be reached as indicated by the analysis, how the price of natural gas behaves following a breakout should provide clues as to the strength or weakness of demand. There is always the possibility of a failed breakout. In general, the breakout of a trendline may not be as reliable as a break above a horizontal price level. This is why a break above a prior swing high in natural gas, especially if it makes up part of the triangle structure can be an important confirmation of strength.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

• Silver price remains under pressure near $30.35 in Friday’s early European session. 
• Trump trades are likely to support the Greenback and undermine the USD-denominated Silver price. 
• Global silver demand in 2024 could help limit the XAG/USD’s losses. 

Silver price (XAG/USD) trades in negative territory around $30.35 on Friday during the early European session. The white metal remains vulnerable amid the stronger US Dollar (USD). Traders await the release of the US October Retail Sales report on Friday for fresh impetus. The Fedspeak will be closely monitored as it might offer some hints about the US interest rate outlook. 

Donald Trump’s victory in last week’s US presidential election sparked expectations of potentially inflationary tariffs and other measures by his incoming administration, boosting the Greenback. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), a measure of the value of the USD against a basket of six currencies, currently trades near 106.80 after hitting a fresh year-to-date high near 107.05 in the previous session. The 10-year US Treasury bond hit the highest since start of July at 4.48%. The renewed USD demand could undermine the USD-denominated Silver as it makes the white metal more expensive in other currencies, dampening demand. 

China’s National People’s Congress (NPC) meeting last week failed to deliver the immediate fiscal stimulus that investors were expecting. The concerns about sluggish demand could weigh on the Silver price as China is the world’s major importer of silver. 

On the other hand, record-high industrial demand for silver might support the white metal in the near term. According to the Silver Institute and consultancy Metals Focus, demand for silver across industrial applications is expected to increase 7% YoY in 2024, reaching 700 million ounces (Moz). Additionally, analysts expect the global silver market to show a physical deficit of around 182 million ounces in 2024, marking the fourth consecutive year of shortfall.

• Gold sellers take a breather on Friday, bracing for more US data and Fedspeak.
• The US Dollar and Treasury yields consolidate Fed Chair Powell speech-led upside.
• Gold price rebounds from critical $2,545 support but the daily RSI remains bearish.

Gold price is looking to build on the previous rebound early Friday in search of a fresh impetus amid persistent US Dollar (USD) buying and mixed activity data from China.  

Gold price struggles as US data looms

Even though China’s Retail Sales data jumped by 4.8% in October, Industrial Production disappointed markets with a 5.3% growth in the same period. The Fixed Asset Investment stayed unchanged at 3.4% in the year through October.

The mixed Chinese data dump amplified economic concerns as markets remain wary over the country’s stimulus efforts to ramp up growth. Asian stocks are a mixed bag so far this Friday, with the sentiment undermined by the decline in Chinese indices.

The uncertainty around the future interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) also remains a drag on the markets, especially after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said late Thursday that there was no need to rush rate cuts with the economy still growing, the job market solid and inflation still above the 2% target, tempering expectations for a rate cut next month, per Reuters.

The US Dollar saw a fresh leg higher as the short-end US Treasury bond yields rallied hard on Powell’s hawkish shit, sending non-yielding Gold price as low as $2,537. However, bargain hunting crept in and allowed Gold price to recover some ground.

The focus now shifts toward a fresh batch of US economic data releases, including the top-tier Retail Sales report, for a fresh direction impetus. Meanwhile, more speeches from Fed policymakers will also entertain traders as they guage whether the Fed will continue its easing trajectory beyond December.

According to Reuters, “Fed fund futures for next year slumped with December off seven ticks and imply just 71 basis points of rate cuts by end-2025. A rate cut next month is no longer a high-probability event, with just 61% priced in, down from 82.5% in the prior session.”

The hawkish turn in the Fed’s policy stance was also backed by the US Producer Price Index (PPI) data for October, which was released on Thursday. The annual headline PPI increased 2.4% in October after rising 1.9% in September, adding signs of the economy losing disinflationary momentum.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

The short-term technical outlook for Gold price remains more or less the same, with any recovery attempts likely to be short-lived as long as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stays bearish.

As of writing, the leading indicator rebounds slightly to near 34 after prodding the oversold threshold a day ago.

This RSI movement correlates to the Gold price recovery from the critical support of $2,545, the confluence of the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the September 18 low.

Gold buyers need to recapture the $2,580 demand area on a daily closing basis to extend the turnaround above $2,600.

Further up, the November 13 high of $2,619 will test the bearish commitments.

On the flip side, the immediate support is seen at the abovementioned strong support of $2,545.

A sustained break below the last will initiate a fresh downtrend toward the $2,500 threshold, with the next bearish target seen at the September 4 low of $2,472.

Strong Bearish Momentum

Given the strong bearish momentum seen in today’s wide range red candle, it looks like natural gas may have a plan to test support again around the 20-Day MA, which is currently at 2.64. It is now lined up with a minor swing low, also at 2.64. Together, they indicate stronger potential support than if they were alone. A little lower is the 50-Day MA at 2.59, followed by a prior swing low at 2.51. Either price area may see signs of support.

Risk of Bearish Weekly Pattern

Nonetheless, since there is only one more trading day for the week, if downward pressure remains on Friday, there is a chance natural gas will complete the week with a bearish shooting star candlestick pattern. That would provide a potentially bearish weekly setup heading into next week. Once one side of a consolidation pattern is tested as either support or resistance, there is the potential to eventually test the other side of the pattern.

Natural gas found resistance this week around the top boundary line of a large symmetrical triangle pattern. A bullish breakout of the triangle would occur on a sustained rally above the prior sein high at 3.02. But since resistance was seen leading to today’s selloff, there is the potential to test support eventually near the bottom of the pattern. This doesn’t mean it will do so, but it does indicate selling pressure and that could provide a surprise to the downside.

Key Support Defined by 50-Day MA

Nevertheless, until there is a decisive decline below the 50-Day MA, the likelihood of finding support that leads to a bullish reversal at or above the 50-Day line is the dominant thesis. A drop sustained decline below the 50-Day line would possibly lead to a retest of support around the 200-Day MA, currently at 2.24.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

XAU/USD Current price: $2,576.61

• Mixed United States data and Fed speakers helped US Dollar correct overbought conditions.
• Central bank’s leaders will be on the wires during the American afternoon.
• XAU/USD in a corrective advance that may continue in the near term.

Spot Gold trades around $2,575 a troy ounce, recovering from a fresh multi-week low of $2,536.68 posted during European trading hours. The US Dollar maintained its positive momentum until Wall Street’s opening, reaching once again fresh highs across the FX board.

United States (US) data came in mixed, as the country reported that Initial Jobless Claims shrank to 217K in the week ended November 8, better than the 223K anticipated. However, the October Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by more than expected, reviving inflation-related concerns. Wholesale inflation was up by 0.2% in the month and 2.4% from a year earlier. The core annual reading printed at 3.1%, above the 3% forecast and the previous 2.9%. The latter was upwardly revised from a previous estimate of 2.8%.

Meanwhile, different Federal Reserve (Fed) officials have been on the wires. So far, comments have added nothing new to what the market already knew about monetary policy. Later in the day, the focus will be on Chairman Jerome Powell, due to participate in a panel discussion titled “Global Perspectives” at an event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Comments on monetary policy may be limited, but questions about how the upcoming Donald Trump government will affect the central bank’s decision will be at the top of the list.

European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde and Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey are also expected to share their thoughts.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The daily chart for XAU/USD shows that it bounced from a bullish 100 Simple Moving Average (SMA) and that the pair develops far below a bearish 20 SMA. At the same time, technical indicators keep heading south near oversold readings, albeit losing their downward strength.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the ongoing upward correction seems poised to continue. Technical indicators aim sharply north, albeit still below their midlines. At the same time, the 20 SMA heads firmly lower, currently providing dynamic resistance at around $2,594.20. Finally, the 100 SMA gains downward traction above the 200 SMA, approaching the longer one, usually hinting at a long-lasting bearish trend.

Support levels:  2,548.70 2,536.60 2,522.40

Resistance levels: 2,581.35 2,594.20 2,611.05

• Silver price gauges an interim cushion near $29.70, more downside looks likely.
• The US Dollar’s rally stalls after the release of the US jobless claims and the PPI data.
• A firm outlook on Trump’s policies will keep the Silver price edgy.

Silver price (XAG/USD) discovers a temporary support near $29.70 in Thursday’s North American session. The white metal finds cushion as the US Dollar (USD) gives up some intraday gains after posting a fresh annual high. The rally in the US Dollar index (DXY), which gauges Greenback’s value against six major currencies, pauses for a while after jumping to near 107.00.

The Greenback faces mild pressure after the release of the US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending November 8 and the Producer Price Index (PPI) data for October even though the data was USD-positive. Individuals claiming jobless benefits for the first time came in surprisingly lower at 217K than the prior release of 221K, which was expected at 223K.

The headline producer inflation data accelerated to 2.4%, faster than estimates of 2.3% and the September reading of 1.9%. In the same period, the core PPI – which strips off volatile food and energy prices rose by 3.1% than estimates of 3% and the former release of 2.9%. Historically, signs of acceleration in price pressures weigh on market expectations for Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts, however, the impact is expected to negligible as officials are more worried about stabilizing job market.

For more interest rate cues, investors await Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech, which is scheduled at 20:00 GMT.

Meanwhile, the outlook of the Silver price is expected to remain vulnerable as policies of President-elected Donald Trump could limit the Fed’s potential of cutting interest rates aggressively.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price stays on track toward the upward-sloping trendline around $29.00, plotted from the February 28 low of $22.30. The white metal weakened after the breakdown of the horizontal support plotted from the May 21 high of $32.50.

The near-term trend of the Silver price has weakened as the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) starts declining, which trades around $32.00.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) slides to near 40.00. A bearish momentum will trigger if the RSI (14) sustains below the same.

Silver daily chart