Watching for Further Bullish Signs

Further bullish signs may include a daily close above the three-day high, or a daily close above the five-day high of 3.22, and then a daily close above the nearby uptrend line. The uptrend line must be watched visually. Natural gas is rallying following a successful test of support around the breakout area for a symmetrical triangle pattern, which includes a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.

In other words, it is rising off a logical support zone that could complete the bearish retracement. Also, notice that over the past few days as natural gas was trying to find a bottom it was able to close above the 20-Day MA trend indicator each day.

Trend Support Indicated by 20-Day MA at 3.11

The 20-Day MA is now at 3.11. Along with the internal uptrend line, the 20-Day line provides a dynamic support line for the trend. If support continues to be found at or above the 20-Day MA, the rising trend remains in place. Since a bullish breakout of a symmetrical triangle formation occurred recently, there is the potential for a new upswing for the developing bull trend. Following the initial breakout, above 3.02, natural gas was able to sustain strength and reclaim prior swing highs at 3.16 and 3.39. This is bullish behavior that should return to the market for natural gas once the correction is complete.

Weekly Bullish Reversal Also Triggered

There was also a bullish reversal that triggered today on the weekly chart as last week’s high of 3.28 was exceeded to the upside. Therefore, the high provide another key near-term pivot to keep an eye on. A daily close above that level would provide another sign of strengthening.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

The coffee market is in a period of strong volatility, with mixed signals coming from both coffee prices. world and domestically. While Brazilian Arabica coffee prices increased slightly in the morning of 12/10, domestic coffee prices decreased in key localities.

Considering the current supporting and risk factors, this article will take a deeper look at the growth potential and potential challenges for the coffee market in the short term.

World Coffee Market: Positive Signals from Brazilian Arabica

Brazilian Arabica coffee prices, the world’s most popular coffee, recorded a slight increase in the morning of 12/10. Monthly delivery futures December 2024 increased by 0.41% to 304.50 USD/ton, while monthly delivery futures March 2025 increased by 0.20% to 303.80 USD/ton. However, the two monthly delivery futures May 2025 and July 2025 decreased slightly, by 1.15% and 1.26%, respectively.

The rise in Brazilian Arabica prices reflects concerns about global coffee supplies. Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer, is facing a prolonged drought that is affecting coffee crop yields.

Domestic coffee market: Signs of slight decline

While the world coffee market is showing positive signs, domestic coffee prices are showing a slight downward trend. Specifically, coffee prices updated at 4:30 a.m. on October 13, 2024 show that the domestic coffee market today decreased in key localities, with an average decrease of VND400/kg, ranging from VND113.000 to VND113.700/kg.

The decline in domestic coffee prices can be attributed to a number of factors, including: After months of strong growth, many coffee growers are cautious about selling their coffee. Supply is abundant and Vietnam’s new coffee harvest has begun, and supply is expected to be more abundant in the coming period. Heavy rains during the harvest period can affect the quality of coffee and lead to a price drop.

Based on current market developments, tomorrow’s coffee price October 14, 2024 is expected to have a slight upward trend.

Factors supporting prices: Prolonged drought in Brazil and lower-than-expected coffee production in Vietnam remain key factors driving up coffee prices. And a weaker US dollar against other currencies makes coffee cheaper for importing countries, boosting demand. Global coffee demand is growing strongly, especially in emerging markets.

Risk factors: Heavy rains during harvest season in Vietnam could affect coffee quality and lead to reduced production. Shipping bottlenecks through the Red Sea could impact coffee exports, leading to lower prices.

Tomorrow’s coffee price October 14, 2024 is expected to be a balanced result between supporting and risky factors. A slight upward trend can be recorded, but the market still has many potential fluctuations. Investors need to closely monitor market developments to make appropriate investment decisions.

*Information is for reference only

Created on December 09, 2024

• The US oil market drifted a bit lower during the trading session on Friday, losing a little over a percent almost immediately.
• That being said, the market is likely to continue to see a lot of noise near the $67 level.
• But if we break down below there, it’s likely that we could drop to the $65 level.

All things being equal, this is a market that I think if you see some type of bounce, you have to look at it as a short-term buying opportunity. The 50-day EMA is near the $70 level, and that of course is an area that I think would attract a lot of attention in and of itself, just due to the fact that it is such a big round hole number.

On a Move Above

If we can break above there, then the crude oil market is likely to go looking to the $72.50 level above, which is a significant barrier also. If we were to break down below the $65 level, it’s likely that the bottom will fall out. But as things stand right now, I think what you’ve got here is a market that is just simply trying to hang on to the range that it’s been in for about three years.

The $65 level has been consistently important, so I like the idea of buying the pullback. Once we get a turnaround, perhaps a little bit of a balance in order to form a V on the chart, as it were. Whether or not we break out to the upside would be a completely different question, but as things stand right now, I think the market is just simply hanging around, killing time, seeing if it can find a reason to go higher. At this juncture, if you can watch the charts for short term trades, this is a market for you.

Ready to trade the daily crude oil Forex forecast? Here’s a list of some of the best Oil trading platforms to check out. 

• Gold price holds rebound from weekly lows early Monday, $2,650 retested.      
• The US Dollar clings to NFP-led recovery amid muted Treasury yields, Middle East geopolitical risks.
• Daily RSI prods 50 level again as Gold buyers regain 21-day SMA. Where next?

Gold’s price continues to face sellers at $2,650 early Monday, capping the latest uptick sponsored by fresh Middle East geopolitical tensions. Meanwhile, traders resort to repositioning heading into the US inflation week, lending some support to Gold price.

Gold price returns to the range amid a quiet start to a big week

Asian traders hit their desks on Monday, reacting to the weekend’s news of Syrian rebels seizing the capital, Damascus, ousting President Bashar al-Assad, who fled to Russia with his family seeking asylum. The toppling of Assad’s government ended a 13-year civil war and more than 50 years of his family’s brutal rule.

In response, the United Nations (UN) will likely convene for an emergency closed-door meeting on Monday to discuss the situation in Syria. Investors remain wary amid multiple risks emanating from the Middle East even as Israel struck a ceasefire deal with the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah a week ago.

They also remain cautious ahead of this week’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, especially after Friday’s US labor data showed that the Nonfarm Payrolls rebounded by 227K in November, beating the estimated 200K increase. The Unemployment Rate ticked higher to 4.2% in the same period, as expected.

Despite the big beat on the headline NFP number, markets ramped up bets for a US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut this month to above 80%, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. This helped Gold price shake off the knee-jerk drop to the weekly low of $2,613 following the US labor data release.  

Looking ahead, geopolitical developments will continue playing a pivotal role in influencing risk sentiment, significantly impacting safe-haven assets such as Gold price, the US Dollar (USD) and the US Treasuries.

Besides Syria’s political upheaval, South Korea faces the same problem, with President Yoon Suk Yeol having survived the impeachment vote on Saturday. Yoon’s People Power Party boycotted the Saturday impeachment vote brought by opposition parties.

Markets also remain hopeful of more stimulus from China after the country’s consumer inflation data signalled continued demand weakness in the world’s biggest consumer. China’s stimulus optimism bodes well for the non-yielding Gold price. China’s CPI missed expectations in November, rising by 0.2% year on year (YoY), down from a 0.3% increase in October.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

The daily chart shows that Gold’s price failed to chart a range breakdown on a daily closing basis on Friday and regained the critical short-term 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2,630 after briefly breaching it during the day.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has turned higher to test the 50 level, backing the renewed uptick in Gold price.

However, it remains to be seen if Gold price extends the rebound from the weekly low as the $2,650 level emerges as the immediate upside hurdle.

Meanwhile, the 50-day SMA at $2,668 remains a tough nut to crack for the optimists. The next relevant resistance is seen at $2,700.

On the flip side, a daily candlestick closing below the 21-day SMA at $2,630 will likely revive the downside.

The next support aligns at the previous week’s low of $2,613, below which the 100-day SMA at $2,586 will be the line in the sand for Gold buyers.

Domestic and world coffee prices increased sharply on 7/12

Today’s coffee price December 7, 2024 on the world market, at 4:30 am, is updated on the Vietnam Commodity Exchange MXV (world coffee prices are continuously updated by MXV, matching the world exchanges, the only channel in Vietnam that continuously updates and links with the world exchanges). Today’s online coffee prices of the three main coffee futures exchanges ICE Futures Europe, ICE Futures US and B3 Brazil are continuously updated by Y5 Cafe during the trading hours of the exchange, updated as follows:

At the end of the trading session, the price of Robusta coffee on the London floor at 4:30 a.m. on December 7, 2024 continued to increase sharply, increasing from 233 – 258 USD/ton, fluctuating from 4.779 – 5193 USD/ton. Specifically, the monthly delivery term January 2025 was 5153 USD/ton (up 258 USD/ton); the monthly delivery term March 2025 was 5116 USD/ton (up 243 USD/ton); the monthly delivery term May 2025 was 5065 USD/ton (up 238 USD/ton) and the monthly delivery term July 2025 was 5000 USD/ton (up 233 USD/ton).

Similar to the London floor, the price of Arabica coffee on the New York floor on the morning of December 7, 2024 also increased sharply, increasing from 13.05 – 16.75 cents/lb, fluctuating from 300.70 – 331.70 cents/lb. Specifically, the monthly delivery term March 2025 is 330.25 cents/lb (up 16.75 cents/lb); the monthly delivery term May 2025 is 327.60 cents/lb (up 16.30 cents/lb); the monthly delivery term July 2025 is 321.95 cents/lb (up 15.40 cents/lb) and the monthly delivery term September 2025 is 314.15 cents/lb (up 13.05 cents/lb).

At the end of the trading session, the price of Brazilian Arabica coffee in the morning of December 7, 2024 was dominated by green, the price increased sharply, the increase was from 14.90 – 21.55 USD/ton depending on the delivery terms. Specifically, the monthly delivery term December 2024 was 405.00 USD/ton (up 14.95 USD/ton); the monthly delivery term March 2025 was 408.95 USD/ton (down 0.35 USD/ton); the monthly delivery term May 2025 was 409.15 USD/ton (up 21.55 USD/ton) and the monthly delivery term July 2025 was 401.50 USD/ton (up 20.35 USD/ton).

Meanwhile, domestic coffee prices updated at 4:30 a.m. on December 7, 2024 also continued to increase sharply compared to the previous trading session, an increase of about VND5.600/kg. Currently, the average coffee purchase price in the Central Highlands provinces is VND120.100/kg.

Specifically, the coffee purchase price in Gia Lai province is at 120.000 VND/kg; the coffee purchase price in Dak Nong province is 120.200 VND/kg and Dak Lak has the highest price of 120.000 VND/kg; the price of green coffee beans (coffee beans, fresh coffee beans) in Lam Dong province in districts such as Bao Loc, Di Linh, Lam Ha, coffee is purchased at 118.500 VND/kg.

Coffee price today (date 7/12) in Dak Lak province; in Cu M’gar district, coffee is purchased at the price of 120.100 VND/kg, and in Ea H’leo district, Buon Ho town, it is purchased at the price of 120.000 VND/kg.

Experts predict that tomorrow’s coffee price December 8, 2024 will continue to increase strongly.

According to statistics, today 7/12 is the 3 consecutive day that world coffee prices have increased strongly by 3 digits, the increase has regained what was lost in previous deep declines. Meanwhile, domestic coffee prices have also witnessed the 2 consecutive day of strong price increases.

Experts say that tomorrow December 8, 2024, domestic and world coffee prices will continue to increase strongly.

According to experts, the price of coffee in the Central Highlands increased faster than the world price due to many different reasons, including speculation when coffee prices decreased. Specifically, some businesses took advantage of the coffee price reduction at the beginning of the week to buy coffee to pay off contract debts and “hold on to goods” to make a profit.

In addition, experts also commented that the global coffee market trend is still low supply compared to the increasing consumer demand. Moreover, the current harvest in many places has not yet reached its peak, reaching only about 30% and farmers are not under economic pressure, so the recent price drop did not cause a sell-off. Therefore, when the world market recovered, domestic prices increased sharply again.

According to Reuters, despite the peak harvest season, domestic coffee prices in Vietnam are still rising due to high demand and limited supply. In the two months since the new harvest began, farmers in the Central Highlands have only harvested about 2% of the coffee output.

Experts say that farmers are not facing much financial pressure at present thanks to stable income from other crops such as durian and pepper, so they are not in a hurry to sell their products and continue to wait for coffee prices to increase. In addition, speculators are also “holding on to goods” to push up prices for profit.

Therefore, experts predict that tomorrow December 8, 2024, domestic and world coffee prices will continue to increase strongly.

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Conflicting Signals

So, there are conflicting signals coming from the price behavior of natural gas. It remains below the lower rising trend channel line, which is bearish, but has retained an area of previously identified support around the 61.8% retracement. And for the prior few days it managed to close just a little above support at the 20-Day line. Natural gas remains on track to close at or above the 20-Day MA today as well. The 20-Day line is currently at 3.08.

Bullish Behavior

There was a bottom tail on Wednesday and there is currently a bottom tail today. Given that they are occurring in a support zone, it shows bullish behavior as the buyers stepped up following intraday weakness. If natural gas ends today in a similar position a second bullish hammer candlestick pattern will be generated. The first was on Wednesday. In summary, natural gas is holding a support zone that could lead to a rally and possibly an eventual challenge to the recent 3.07 trend high.

Strength Shown Above Today’s High of 3.00

If the day ends with a bullish hammer, a rally above today’s high of 3.10 will provide a bullish signal. But natural gas will still be below the lower channel line, and it may continue to act as resistance. Therefore, a bullish reversal will be indicated on a rally above Wednesday’s high of 3.035. Further strength would then be shown on a move above the four-day high at 3.03. It is possible that natural gas could rally yet stay below the trend channel. For the bullish advance to have a better chance of continuing, a daily close will need to eventually be seen above that line.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

By Charles Kennedy – Dec 06, 2024, 9:30 AM CST

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• Silver rally loses momentum with bulls capped right below the last two weeks’ range top, at $31,45.
• The Dollar has steadied with investors awaiting the release of the US employment report.
• XAG/USD: Above $31.40, the next target is the November 7 high, at $32.15.

Silver (XAG/USD) rally from last week’s lows near $30.00 has been capped at the top of the last two week’s horizontal channel, at 31.15, with investors awaiting the release of November’s US employment data.

The US economy is expected to have created 200,000 new jobs in the month, while the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2%. This latter data and softer wage inflation are likely to keep hopes of December rate cuts alive.

On Thursday, the weekly jobless claims showed a larger-than-expected increase in the last week of November. This, coupled with below-consensus ADP employment figures seen on Wednesday, has cast some doubt about the NFP reading and increased pressure on the USD.

The technical picture shows the bullish momentum losing steam, with the 4-hour RSI turning down towards the 50 level and bulls capped below the mentioned $31.45. Above here, the next target is the November, 7 high, at 32.15. Supports are $30.90 and $30.45 (Dec 5 and 4 lows respectively)

XAG/USD 4-hour Chart