• XAG/USD drops over 1% to $31.60 after reaching a yearly high of $32.71 earlier in the week.
• Failure to close above $31.75 could see Silver trading between $31.00 and $31.70, with potential for further weakness.
• A break above $32.00 may lead to retesting the YTD high of $32.71, with $33.00 as the next key resistance level.

Silver prices dropped on Friday, finishing the session down by more than 1% after hitting a yearly record high of $32.71 on September 26. Buyers’ failure to cling to gains above $32.00 exacerbated the drop toward $31.60, but they held to weekly profits of over 1.50%.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

Silver is upward biased amid dipping to a four-day low of $31.37, but a daily close below the July 13 peak of $31.75 opens the scope to trade within the $31.00-$31.70 range.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains bullish, but in the short term, sellers could push prices toward the September 23 low of $30.36. On further weakness, the next stop would be the 50-day moving average (DMA) at $29.64.

Conversely, if XAG/USD climbs back above $32.00, this could pave the way to test the YTD high of $32.71 before challenging $33.00 ahead of the October 1, 2012, peak at $35340.

XAG/USD Price Action – Daily Chart

Possible Symmetrical Triangle Breakout

As discussed previously in this column, natural gas has been tracing out a symmetrical triangle consolidation pattern for over six months. The first lower boundary line rises from the February trend low, but a new and higher bottom line was added once the late-August higher swing low was established.

Once price reverses from the low end of a consolidation pattern, the chance for a move to the opposite side of the pattern increases. Support was successfully tested at the low end of the natural gas symmetrical triangle at the late-August low. The subsequent rally opened the possibility of an eventual test of resistance at the top downtrend line.

Bullish Reversal Today Shows No Sign of Stopping

Today’s high may be that test as natural gas is very close to the top trendline. So far today, it has found resistance at the interim swing high from May 23. However, given the clear bullish momentum that has followed the drop below yesterday’s low from earlier today, the top trendline may be hit in the coming days or a breakout through the line could occur. Today is likely to end with a wide range green candle and the close is on track to be strong, in the top quarter of the day’s trading range, which also means it closes near the highs for the week.

Can Natural Gas Breakout and then Keep Rising?

Since upward momentum began after price was rejected to the upside from the 200-Day MA support area last week, a breakout above the trendline in the coming days may not see enough buying pressure to continue to support higher prices in natural gas before a pause or retracement. There is also a good chance the top line will retain resistance and lead to a retracement before an attempt at an upside breakout occurs. Keep in mind that such a move would also trigger a bullish breakout of the triangle formation as well as a trendline. Nonetheless, other than prior swing highs the first higher target looks to be around 3.45.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis

The natural gas markets have rallied significantly during the course of the trading session on Friday, as we have broken above the $3 level, at least initially. That being said, there is a massive amount of resistance above as we had formed a double top back in June, so it’ll be interesting to see if we can get above there. The Relative Strength Index is in an overbought condition, so that also comes into the picture, but really when I look at this, the thing that I would pay the most attention to isn’t even on the chart. It’s the hurricane that just ripped through the Gulf of Mexico area.

The question is, did that damage and slow down production enough to drive prices higher? Probably in the short term, but I do recognize that we are getting much closer to the end of this run than we were at the beginning. I took profit yesterday, I’m okay with that. I don’t have any reason to chase this. If we break out to the upside, so be it, I’ll wave goodbye to the trend. Ultimately though, I do think we are about to hit a bit of a brick wall when it comes to resistance, and I think in that environment, you have to be very cautious.

• Gold price keeps its subdued Asian performance intact early Friday, as US PCE data loom.
• The US Dollar recovers from the early dip, despite muted Treasury bond yields.
• Extremely overbought conditions on the daily chart and month/ quarter-end flows risk Gold price correction.  

Gold price treads water while within a striking distance of the new record high of $2,686, as buyers take a breather and consolidate the weekly gains in the countdown to the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data release later on Friday.

Gold price pauses record-rally, as correction risks lurk

Despite the recent dovish comments from US Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers and mixed US economic data, market expectations for a 50 basis points (bps) interest rate cut in November ease, with the odds of such a move now standing at 50%, down from about 62% seen a day ago, the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows.

Fading bets of an outsized Fed rate cut at the next meeting seem to fuel a fresh US Dollar (USD) recovery, checking the record-setting rally in Gold price. However, Fed Governor Lisa Cook’s dovish remarks overnight and a risk-on market profile, courtesy of fresh Chinese stimulus measures, continue to limit the Gold price downside.

The next directional move in Gold price and the expectations of a large November Fed rate cut hinge on the upcoming Fed’s most preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE Price Index, due later in American trading on Friday. The US core PCE inflation is seen steady at 0.2% MoM in August while annually, the index is likely to tick higher a bit to 2.7% in the same period from July’s 2.6%.

A hotter-than-expected core PCE inflation data could push back expectations against a November rate reduction by the Fed, initiating a sustained recovery in the US Dollar against its major rivals from over one-yeat highs. In that case, a steep corrective decline could ensue in Gold price from near-lifetime highs. Conversely, a downside surprise in the core readings could ramp up the odds for a large Fed rate cut yet again, setting another record high in Gold price at the expense of the USD.

The reaction to the PCE inflation report, however, could be temporary as the end-of-the-month, as well as, the quarter-end flows could come into play and stir markets. Traders are also likely to resort to profit-taking in Gold price ahead of next week’s high-impact US Nonfarm Payrolls data.

Further, a speech by Fed Governor Michelle Bowman could add to the potential volatility around the Gold price.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

Nothing changes for Gold price from a short-term technical perspective, as it remains in extremely overbought territory, suggesting that a meaningful correction could be in the offing.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently trading above the 76 level, warranting caution to buyers.

If buyers regain lost momentum, acceptance above the record high of $2,686 is critical to unleashing further upside toward the $2,700 barrier, followed by the $2,750 psychological mark.

Conversely, any correction in Gold price will likely test the September 24 low of $2,623, below which the $2,600 threshold will come into play.

Further south, Gold sellers could target the September 20 low of $2,585.

Created on September 27, 2024

• During my daily analysis of the commodity markets, I’ve noticed that the West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has plunged again, to break down below the $68 level.
• Breaking down below the $68 level suggests that we are ready to send the market down to the $65 level.
• The $65 level of course is an area that we had bounce from previously, so therefore I think you’ve got a situation where traders could look at that as a bit of a “hard floor.”

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator is starting to show more momentum to the upside, while price had been dropping, so the question is now whether or not we are getting ready to form some type of bottoming pattern, which would make a certain amount of sense considering that the longer-term charts have shown that the $65 level has been massive support, at least over the last couple of years.

Crude Oil Continues to Measure Economic Movement

The crude oil market will continue to measure economic movement in the world, and of course potential demand. The employment situation in the United States continues to disintegrate, so it does suggest that perhaps there is going to be a certain amount of downward pressure in this market, as the demand for crude oil tends to fall when you start to see a bit of a recessionary type of market.

However, it’s worth noting that we have bounced quite a bit in the middle of the day, and therefore it’s likely that there is going to be plenty of support between here and the $65 level. If we were to break down below that $65 level, then it’s likely that the market could really start to fall apart, and I think it would also have a lot of negative influence on other markets as well, so the crude oil market is also worth paying close attention to as it can give you a bit of a “heads up” as to how the overall economic momentum continues to break in one direction or the other.

Ready to trade oil price analysis and predictions? Here are the best Oil trading brokers to choose from. 

• Silver drifts lower and retreats further from a 12-year peak touched on Thursday.
• The setup favors bulls and warrants caution before positioning for deeper losses. 
• Any meaningful downfall is likely to attract some dip-buying and remain limited. 

Silver (XAG/USD) extends the overnight modest pullback from the $32.70 area, or its highest level since December 2012 and remains under some selling pressure during the Asian session on Friday. The white metal, however, attracts some dip-buyers at lower levels and currently trades just below the $32.00 mark, down 0.25% for the day. 

Meanwhile, technical indicators on the daily chart are holding comfortably in positive territory and are still away from being in the overbought zone. This, along with the recent breakout through a short-term descending trend-line resistance, favor bullish traders and suggests that the path of least resistance for the XAG/USD is to the upside. That said, Thursday’s failure to build on the momentum beyond the $32.45-$32.50 region warrants some caution.

The aforementioned area might continue to act as an immediate hurdle ahead of the overnight swing high, around the $32.70 area. Some follow-through buying should pave the way for a move towards reclaiming the $33.00 mark and lift the XAG/USD further towards the $33.45 intermediate hurdle en route to the December 2012 swing high, around the $33.85 region. 

On the flip side, the $31.60-$31.55 zone now seems to have emerged as an immediate support. Any further decline could be seen as a buying opportunity around the $31.25 area and remain limited near the $31.00 mark. A convincing break below the latter could drag the XAG/USD to the $30.60-$30.55 zone en route to the $30.00 psychological mark and the $29.70-$29.65 area, or the descending trend-line resistance breakpoint, now turned support.

The latter now coincides with the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and should act as a key pivotal point. Failure to defend the said support levels will suggest that the XAG/USD has topped out and pave the way for a meaningful corrective decline in the near term.

Silver daily chart

Drop Below Today’s Low Points to Lower Prices

A decisive decline below today’s low points to a deeper pullback. The most recent trend high price range of 2.67 to 2.65 marks the first potential support zone. It is followed by the 50% retracement of the most recent upswing at 2.55. The lower 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 2.48 can be watched along with this week’s low at 2.46 and a prior interim swing high at 2.44. Together, they generate a potential support zone from 2.48 to 2.44.

Remains Within Large Symmetrical Triangle

Following a retracement and bullish reversal natural gas may have a chance to test the top trendline and possibly breakout through it. Otherwise, natural gas may continue to trade range bound within a relatively large developing symmetrical triangle. The bottom line of the triangle was tightened recently following the late-August higher swing low. That swing low marks a new and higher trendline for the bottom of a triangle.

Key Support at 20-Day MA

Keep an eye on the internal uptrend line marking support of the most recent trend. The 20-Day MA has recently converged with the line. This is the markets way of telling us to pay attention to the line. Of course, the 20-Day MA also has significance as it shows the near-term trend strengthening. Also, the 50-Day MA has started confirming strength as it began to turn back up earlier this week.

Natural gas has been flirting with the 200-Day MA around a year ago. Each rally above the 200-Day line has gone only so far before the price of natural gas is pulled back to the line. The same thing may happen now. However, notice that the 200-Day line is now flat and that happens before a turn up.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

• Silver price retraces its recent losses as China’s fresh stimulus plans offset the fading effects of Tuesday’s measures.
• China plans to inject over CNY 1 trillion in capital into its largest state banks.
• The non-yielding Silver continues to receive support from rising odds of further Fed rate cuts.

Silver price (XAG/USD) edges higher as China, the world’s largest metals market, announces plans for additional stimulus measures to bolster its economy, offsetting the diminishing effects of Tuesday’s earlier actions. Silver price trades around $32.00 per troy ounce during Thursday’s European hours.

China plans to inject over CNY 1 trillion in capital into its largest state banks, which are facing challenges such as shrinking margins, declining profits, and increasing bad loans. This substantial capital infusion would mark the first of its kind since the 2008 global financial crisis.

The safe-haven Silver also receives support from rising tensions in the Middle East. An Israeli airstrike on Beirut killed a senior Hezbollah commander on Tuesday, raising fears of a broader conflict as cross-border rocket attacks intensified.

Meanwhile, the United States, France, and several allies have called for an immediate 21-day ceasefire along the Israel-Lebanon border “Blue Line” and expressed support for a ceasefire in Gaza, following intense discussions at the United Nations on Wednesday.

The non-yielding Silver gained support following last week’s substantial 50 basis point rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Moreover, rising expectations of additional Fed rate cuts in 2024 are enhancing the appeal of the commodity for investors amid low opportunity cost.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are currently pricing in a roughly 50% probability that the Fed will implement a total of 75 basis points in rate cuts, bringing rates down to a range of 4.0-4.25% by year’s end. This has weakened the US Dollar (USD), making Silver more affordable for buyers using other currencies and boosting demand for the dollar-denominated commodity.

XAU/USD Current price: $2,669.02

• Generally encouraging US data gave the Greenback a short-term boost.
• Federal Reserve officials refrained from commenting on monetary policy.
• XAU/USD is poised to extend its advance, although the risk of a downward correction increased.

Spot Gold hit $2,685.45 on Thursday, yet another record high. XAU/USD currently trades around $2,671 as investors keep selling the battered US Dollar (USD). The United States (US) published some macroeconomic encouraging figures, albeit nothing shocking. The numbers provided temporal support to the USD at the beginning of the American session, but the Greenback quickly resumed its decline.

The US reported that  Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended September 20 rose by 218K, better than the 219K previous and the 225K expected. Also, the country confirmed an annualized pace of growth of 3% in the year to June, according to the final estimate of the Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Finally, Durable Goods Orders posted 0.0% in August, better than the -2.6% expected.

Meanwhile, multiple Federal Reserve (Fed) officials hit the wires in different events. Nevertheless, no one delivered fresh hints on monetary policy. In fact, most refrained from discussing it after cutting interest rates by a whopping 50 basis points (bps) when they met last week. Such silence left speculative interest in its belief that policymakers would deliver a similar trim in November.

Further harming the USD, Wall Street turned positive. After the back and forth offered in the first half of the week, US indexes seem to have found their way north.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook  

The daily chart for XAU/USD shows it keeps posting higher lows and higher highs, supporting another leg north. Technical indicators, in the meantime, head firmly north within overbought levels, showing no signs of upward exhaustion yet, Meanwhile the pair keeps developing above firmly bullish moving averages which stand far below the current level. Overall, the risk of a downward correction has increased despite the lack of technical signs about it.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, it is clear that bulls retain control. An intraday slide met buyers around a bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), now providing dynamic support at around 2,650. At the same time, the 100 and 200 SMAs accelerated higher, far below the shorter ones, reflecting persistent upside strength. Finally, the Momentum indicator aims marginally higher within positive levels, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator retreats modestly from extreme overbought readings, drawing minor divergences. Such divergences seem not enough to support a decline but are a first warning about a potential decline in the upcoming sessions.

  Support levels: 2,662.80 2,650.00 2,638.10  

Resistance levels: 2,685.00 2,700.00 2,715.00