Today’s price action shows a successful retest of support around the 20-Day MA, which followed the first successful test on November 4. It potentially clears the way for a possible new breakout attempt about the 3.02 high (B). The last attempt failed attempt occurred on Wednesday. It remains to be seen whether that high retains resistance or whether a sustainable bullish breakout triggers. A daily close above 3.02 would confirm a breakout and put natural gas in a position to test higher potential targets.
Near-term Symmetry Points to 3.22
The first target would be the swing high from August at 3.16. But that level should be easily surpassed given the potential for a strong market response. There are two patterns that would be triggered. A sustained rally above 3.02 would trigger a breakout of a large symmetrical triangle pattern, as well as a continuation of the rising trend that began from the August swing low.
If the 3.16 high can be exceeded, the completion of a small rising ABCD pattern (purple) point to 3.22. But that is a relatively easy target to hit and possibly surpass. A more significant target range looks to be from 3.35 to 3.45, which is where there is a confluence of targets from Fibonacci projections and price structure.
Watch Behavior Following a Breakout
Regardless of the potential for higher targets to be reached as indicated by the analysis, how the price of natural gas behaves following a breakout should provide clues as to the strength or weakness of demand. There is always the possibility of a failed breakout. In general, the breakout of a trendline may not be as reliable as a break above a horizontal price level. This is why a break above a prior swing high in natural gas, especially if it makes up part of the triangle structure can be an important confirmation of strength.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
Silver price remains under pressure near $30.35 in Friday’s early European session.
Trump trades are likely to support the Greenback and undermine the USD-denominated Silver price.
Global silver demand in 2024 could help limit the XAG/USD’s losses.
Silver price (XAG/USD) trades in negative territory around $30.35 on Friday during the early European session. The white metal remains vulnerable amid the stronger US Dollar (USD). Traders await the release of the US October Retail Sales report on Friday for fresh impetus. The Fedspeak will be closely monitored as it might offer some hints about the US interest rate outlook.
Donald Trump’s victory in last week’s US presidential election sparked expectations of potentially inflationary tariffs and other measures by his incoming administration, boosting the Greenback. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), a measure of the value of the USD against a basket of six currencies, currently trades near 106.80 after hitting a fresh year-to-date high near 107.05 in the previous session. The 10-year US Treasury bond hit the highest since start of July at 4.48%. The renewed USD demand could undermine the USD-denominated Silver as it makes the white metal more expensive in other currencies, dampening demand.
China’s National People’s Congress (NPC) meeting last week failed to deliver the immediate fiscal stimulus that investors were expecting. The concerns about sluggish demand could weigh on the Silver price as China is the world’s major importer of silver.
On the other hand, record-high industrial demand for silver might support the white metal in the near term. According to the Silver Institute and consultancy Metals Focus, demand for silver across industrial applications is expected to increase 7% YoY in 2024, reaching 700 million ounces (Moz). Additionally, analysts expect the global silver market to show a physical deficit of around 182 million ounces in 2024, marking the fourth consecutive year of shortfall.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Gold sellers take a breather on Friday, bracing for more US data and Fedspeak.
The US Dollar and Treasury yields consolidate Fed Chair Powell speech-led upside.
Gold price rebounds from critical $2,545 support but the daily RSI remains bearish.
Gold price is looking to build on the previous rebound early Friday in search of a fresh impetus amid persistent US Dollar (USD) buying and mixed activity data from China.
Gold price struggles as US data looms
Even though China’s Retail Sales data jumped by 4.8% in October, Industrial Production disappointed markets with a 5.3% growth in the same period. The Fixed Asset Investment stayed unchanged at 3.4% in the year through October.
The mixed Chinese data dump amplified economic concerns as markets remain wary over the country’s stimulus efforts to ramp up growth. Asian stocks are a mixed bag so far this Friday, with the sentiment undermined by the decline in Chinese indices.
The uncertainty around the future interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) also remains a drag on the markets, especially after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said late Thursday that there was no need to rush rate cuts with the economy still growing, the job market solid and inflation still above the 2% target, tempering expectations for a rate cut next month, per Reuters.
The US Dollar saw a fresh leg higher as the short-end US Treasury bond yields rallied hard on Powell’s hawkish shit, sending non-yielding Gold price as low as $2,537. However, bargain hunting crept in and allowed Gold price to recover some ground.
The focus now shifts toward a fresh batch of US economic data releases, including the top-tier Retail Sales report, for a fresh direction impetus. Meanwhile, more speeches from Fed policymakers will also entertain traders as they guage whether the Fed will continue its easing trajectory beyond December.
According to Reuters, “Fed fund futures for next year slumped with December off seven ticks and imply just 71 basis points of rate cuts by end-2025. A rate cut next month is no longer a high-probability event, with just 61% priced in, down from 82.5% in the prior session.”
The hawkish turn in the Fed’s policy stance was also backed by the US Producer Price Index (PPI) data for October, which was released on Thursday. The annual headline PPI increased 2.4% in October after rising 1.9% in September, adding signs of the economy losing disinflationary momentum.
Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart
The short-term technical outlook for Gold price remains more or less the same, with any recovery attempts likely to be short-lived as long as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stays bearish.
As of writing, the leading indicator rebounds slightly to near 34 after prodding the oversold threshold a day ago.
This RSI movement correlates to the Gold price recovery from the critical support of $2,545, the confluence of the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the September 18 low.
Gold buyers need to recapture the $2,580 demand area on a daily closing basis to extend the turnaround above $2,600.
Further up, the November 13 high of $2,619 will test the bearish commitments.
On the flip side, the immediate support is seen at the abovementioned strong support of $2,545.
A sustained break below the last will initiate a fresh downtrend toward the $2,500 threshold, with the next bearish target seen at the September 4 low of $2,472.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Given the strong bearish momentum seen in today’s wide range red candle, it looks like natural gas may have a plan to test support again around the 20-Day MA, which is currently at 2.64. It is now lined up with a minor swing low, also at 2.64. Together, they indicate stronger potential support than if they were alone. A little lower is the 50-Day MA at 2.59, followed by a prior swing low at 2.51. Either price area may see signs of support.
Risk of Bearish Weekly Pattern
Nonetheless, since there is only one more trading day for the week, if downward pressure remains on Friday, there is a chance natural gas will complete the week with a bearish shooting star candlestick pattern. That would provide a potentially bearish weekly setup heading into next week. Once one side of a consolidation pattern is tested as either support or resistance, there is the potential to eventually test the other side of the pattern.
Natural gas found resistance this week around the top boundary line of a large symmetrical triangle pattern. A bullish breakout of the triangle would occur on a sustained rally above the prior sein high at 3.02. But since resistance was seen leading to today’s selloff, there is the potential to test support eventually near the bottom of the pattern. This doesn’t mean it will do so, but it does indicate selling pressure and that could provide a surprise to the downside.
Key Support Defined by 50-Day MA
Nevertheless, until there is a decisive decline below the 50-Day MA, the likelihood of finding support that leads to a bullish reversal at or above the 50-Day line is the dominant thesis. A drop sustained decline below the 50-Day line would possibly lead to a retest of support around the 200-Day MA, currently at 2.24.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
Mixed United States data and Fed speakers helped US Dollar correct overbought conditions.
Central bank’s leaders will be on the wires during the American afternoon.
XAU/USD in a corrective advance that may continue in the near term.
Spot Gold trades around $2,575 a troy ounce, recovering from a fresh multi-week low of $2,536.68 posted during European trading hours. The US Dollar maintained its positive momentum until Wall Street’s opening, reaching once again fresh highs across the FX board.
United States (US) data came in mixed, as the country reported that Initial Jobless Claims shrank to 217K in the week ended November 8, better than the 223K anticipated. However, the October Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by more than expected, reviving inflation-related concerns. Wholesale inflation was up by 0.2% in the month and 2.4% from a year earlier. The core annual reading printed at 3.1%, above the 3% forecast and the previous 2.9%. The latter was upwardly revised from a previous estimate of 2.8%.
Meanwhile, different Federal Reserve (Fed) officials have been on the wires. So far, comments have added nothing new to what the market already knew about monetary policy. Later in the day, the focus will be on Chairman Jerome Powell, due to participate in a panel discussion titled “Global Perspectives” at an event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Comments on monetary policy may be limited, but questions about how the upcoming Donald Trump government will affect the central bank’s decision will be at the top of the list.
European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde and Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey are also expected to share their thoughts.
XAU/USD short-term technical outlook
The daily chart for XAU/USD shows that it bounced from a bullish 100 Simple Moving Average (SMA) and that the pair develops far below a bearish 20 SMA. At the same time, technical indicators keep heading south near oversold readings, albeit losing their downward strength.
In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the ongoing upward correction seems poised to continue. Technical indicators aim sharply north, albeit still below their midlines. At the same time, the 20 SMA heads firmly lower, currently providing dynamic resistance at around $2,594.20. Finally, the 100 SMA gains downward traction above the 200 SMA, approaching the longer one, usually hinting at a long-lasting bearish trend.
Silver price gauges an interim cushion near $29.70, more downside looks likely.
The US Dollar’s rally stalls after the release of the US jobless claims and the PPI data.
A firm outlook on Trump’s policies will keep the Silver price edgy.
Silver price (XAG/USD) discovers a temporary support near $29.70 in Thursday’s North American session. The white metal finds cushion as the US Dollar (USD) gives up some intraday gains after posting a fresh annual high. The rally in the US Dollar index (DXY), which gauges Greenback’s value against six major currencies, pauses for a while after jumping to near 107.00.
The Greenback faces mild pressure after the release of the US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending November 8 and the Producer Price Index (PPI) data for October even though the data was USD-positive. Individuals claiming jobless benefits for the first time came in surprisingly lower at 217K than the prior release of 221K, which was expected at 223K.
The headline producer inflation data accelerated to 2.4%, faster than estimates of 2.3% and the September reading of 1.9%. In the same period, the core PPI – which strips off volatile food and energy prices rose by 3.1% than estimates of 3% and the former release of 2.9%. Historically, signs of acceleration in price pressures weigh on market expectations for Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts, however, the impact is expected to negligible as officials are more worried about stabilizing job market.
For more interest rate cues, investors await Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech, which is scheduled at 20:00 GMT.
Meanwhile, the outlook of the Silver price is expected to remain vulnerable as policies of President-elected Donald Trump could limit the Fed’s potential of cutting interest rates aggressively.
Silver technical analysis
Silver price stays on track toward the upward-sloping trendline around $29.00, plotted from the February 28 low of $22.30. The white metal weakened after the breakdown of the horizontal support plotted from the May 21 high of $32.50.
The near-term trend of the Silver price has weakened as the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) starts declining, which trades around $32.00.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) slides to near 40.00. A bearish momentum will trigger if the RSI (14) sustains below the same.
Silver daily chart
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Silver price depreciates as risk-sensitive assets advance due to improving risk-on sentiment.
The dollar-denominated Silver faces challenges as the US Dollar surges to its highest level since November 2023.
Higher yields exert downward pressure on non-yielding assets like Silver.
Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its losses to two-month lows, trading around $29.90 per troy ounce during the European hours on Thursday. This downside of the safe-haven Silver is attributed to improving risk sentiment since Donald Trump’s election victory last week.
The US Dollar (USD), equities, and cryptocurrencies are advancing as markets anticipate strong growth and higher inflation under the incoming Trump administration. The proposed policies could drive increased investment, spending, and labor demand, raising inflation risks.
The dollar-denominated Silver faces challenges due to solid US Dollar (USD). The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against its six major peers, holds steady around 106.60, its highest level since November 2023.
The US Dollar also gains support from rising US Treasury yields, with the 2-year and 10-year yields standing at 4.29% and 4.46%, respectively, at the time of writing. Additionally, these higher yields are exerting downward pressure on non-yielding assets like Silver.
The non-interest-bearing assets like Silver might have received downward pressure from less dovish remarks by Federal Reserve (Fed) officials on Wednesday. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem remarked that ongoing inflationary pressures make it challenging for the Fed to maintain a course of rate cuts. Musalem shifted focus to the robustness of the US labor market, aiming to ease concerns about inflation’s resistance to the Fed’s efforts to reduce it.
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Jeffrey Schmid highlighted potential challenges in the journey toward lowering interest rates. Schmid also criticized market participants who continue to hold out hope for a return to near-zero rates, calling their expectations unrealistic.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Indications are that gold is heading towards a test of support around the 50% retracement at 2,534 and prior resistance at 2,532. The lower price was also the highest traded price for August. Also, 2,532 begins a price range down to approximately 2,484. Support might be seen anywhere within that range. Subsequently, the next lower target looks to be a range from 2,484 to 2,473. The first price level is a prior trend high from July, followed by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 2,473.
Monthly Bearish Reversal Triggered
Following a break below the October low yesterday, natural gas confirmed the breakdown by ending the day below the monthly low. The monthly trend of higher monthly highs and higher lows has persisted for eight months until now. This is a bearish sign on the larger time frame indicating further selling pressure for the precious metal.
Downtrend Progresses
Notice that resistance today was seen at a high of 2,619, a clear test of resistance at the internal trendline. The line was previously representing support but since the drop below the line this week, it now represents potential resistance. And it acted as an area of resistance today as gold turned back down once it was hit. In a downtrend, once support is broken and then subsequently successfully tested as resistance, the decline is ready to proceed.
That is what we see today. Since the close for today will likely occur in the lower quarter of the day’s price range and below yesterday’s low of 2,590, sellers remain clearly in charge. So, the next lower target zone is looking more likely to be reached before this correction is over.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
Silver remains under some selling pressure on Thursday and retests October’s swing low.
The technical setup favors bearish traders and supports prospects for additional losses.
Any attempted recovery could still be seen as a selling opportunity and remain capped.
Silver (XAG/USD) attracts some follow-through selling during the Asian session on Thursday and drops to its lowest level since September 19 in the last hour. Bearish traders now await a sustained break below the $30.00 psychological mark before positioning for an extension of the recent sharp retracement slide from a 12-year peak touched last month.
The overnight close below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the August-October rally and a subsequent break through the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) for the first time since September could be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart have been gaining negative traction and are still away from being in the oversold zone. This, in turn, suggests that the path of least resistance for the XAG/USD remains to the downside and supports prospects for a further depreciating move.
The white metal might then accelerate the fall towards the 61.8% Fibo. level, around the $29.65-$29.60 region. The downward trajectory could extend further towards the $29.20-$29.15 area before the XAG/USD eventually breaks below the $29.00 mark and tests a technically significant 200-day SMA, currently pegged near the $28.65 zone.
On the flip side, any meaningful recovery attempt might now confront a stiff barrier near the $30.60 region (50% Fibo. level). Some follow-through strength, however, could trigger a short-covering rally and allow the XAG/USD to reclaim the $31.00 mark, though the momentum is more likely to remain capped near the $31.20 support-turned-resistance. The latter should act as a key pivotal point, which if cleared decisively will suggest that the commodity has formed a near-term bottom and pave the way for additional gains.
Silver daily chart
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Gold sellers refuse to give up, awaiting Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech.
The US Dollar and Treasury yields keep rallying on Trump trades euphoria.
Defending 100-day SMA near $2,545 is critical for Gold buyers as the daily RSI stays bearish.
Gold price is sitting at its lowest level in two months near $2,560 early Thursday, as buyers eagerly await US Federal Reserve (Fed) Jerome Powell’s speech for a brief respite.
Will Fed Chair Powell rescue Gold buyers?
Gold price extends its losing streak into a fifth consecutive day on Thursday, courtesy of the unabated US Dollar (USD) demand alongside the US Treasury bond yields rally.
The Trump trades-led europhoria continues to power USD buyers, notwithstanding the in-line with expectations US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for October and a slew of speeches from Fed policymakers.
US CPI rose 2.6% annually in October, coming in higher than the 2.4% growth in September while meeting the forecast. The annual core CPI inflation steadied at 3.3% in the same period vs. 3.3% expected. Monthly figures also matched estimates.
Meanwhile, Fed officials remain wary of the inflation outlook, suggesting a cautious approach for the US central bank in the coming months.
However, the US inflation data and the Fed commentary advocated that the Fed should go for another 25 basis points (bps) interest rate cut in December. In fact, the market’s pricing for such a move next month now stands at about 83%, the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows, compared with around 63% seen prior to the data release.
Gold buyers fail to capitalize on dovish Fed expectations, as the Trump trades-inspired USD upsurge outweighs, exacerbating the pain in the bright metal.
Therefore, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech on ‘Global Perspectives’ at an event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas later on Thursday remains in focus for fresh hints on the central bank’s easing trajectory in the face of the US President-elect Donald Trump’s potential inflationary policies.
Also, the focus remains on the US Producer Price Index (PPI) and Jobless Claims data, while more Fed officials are likely to take up the rostrum as attention likely returns to economic data.
Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart
As observed on the daily chart, Gold price gave up the $2,600 level on a daily closing basis on Wednesday, opening the door for more downside.
Adding credence to the bearish potential, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) points lower while well below the 50 level, approaching the oversold territory.
The immediate support is seen at the confluence of the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the September 18 low near $2,545.
A sustained break below the last will initiate a fresh downtrend toward the $2,500 threshold, with the next bearish target seen at the September 4 low of $2,472.
If Gold price attempts a rebound, the $2,600 mark will challenge the bearish commitments. Acceptance above that level will extend the recovery toward the November 13 low of $2,619.
Further up, the 50-day SMA at $2,651 will offer stiff resistance to Gold buyers.
Economic Indicator
Fed’s Chair Powell speech
Jerome H. Powell took office as a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System on May 25, 2012, to fill an unexpired term. On November 2, 2017, President Donald Trump nominated Powell to serve as the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Powell assumed office as Chair on February 5, 2018.
