20-Day MA Retains Trend Support

This week’s bounce from the 2.76 swing low confirms the 20-Day MA as an applicable moving average to use for the current aggressive uptrend that began from the April 26 bullish reversal and breakout of a symmetrical triangle bottom. A daily bullish reversal yesterday set the stage for a continuation of the uptrend following an upside breakout of a bull pennant and break above the trendline last week.

The retracement exceeded 50% of the near-term swing and was a little shy of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 2.74. It was a normal and healthy retracement following a 1.57 point or 99.2% advance in 31 days when measured from the April 25 swing low.

Bullish Weekly Candle Will Counter Last Week’s Bearish Sentiment

Last week ended with a bearish weekly shooting star candlestick pattern that triggered on Monday with a drop below 2.86. If this week’s low of 2.76 is retained as support and natural gas can end this week in the top third of the week’s range, it will have formed a weekly bullish pattern. Therefore, if it does so, heading into next week it will be positioned to trigger a weekly bullish reversal with an advance above this week’s high. This week’s bearish weekly reversal would then be negated.

Watching for Breakout Above 3.16

A rally above last week’s trend high of 3.16 will trigger a continuation of the rising trend. While natural gas may still encounter resistance up to approximately 3.20 (top of resistance zone from 3.18 to 3.20), the bullish momentum from a second and confirming breakout of the trendline should help propel it through that price range. The area around the swing high of 3.39 from early-January would then be the next higher target. That swing high is part of the downtrend price structure as it is a lower swing high.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

XAU/USD Current price: $2,330.47

• Gold lacks directional strength, but keeps trading near record highs.
• Financial markets will trade on sentiment for much longer than believed.
• XAU/USD extends its consolidative phase above the $2,300 mark.

Gold has shown little signs of life in the last few days, but it’s worth remembering it stands at record levels. XAU/USD hit an all-time high of $2,449.92 in mid-May. The former record high was set two years ago at $2,070.45, way below its current comfort area above the $2,300 mark. With back and forths in between, XAU/USD has managed to add roughly 20% from the March 2022 peak. As a note of color, Gold was changing hands at around $1,550 when the Coronavirus pandemic hit the world early in 2020.

It’s not just about Covid-19. Recession, inflation, and war are also on the list of top concerns. What’s clear is that sentiment has taken over the lead of financial markets and will stay here for quite some time. Indeed, a corrective slide seems likely, but more likely, it seems speculative interest adding on dips. Uncertainty, now focused on when and how central banks will bring interest rates to “normal” levels, will last for much more than what everyday investors may believe.

Anyway, in the near term, the bright metal is lifeless amid a holiday in the United States (US). The country celebrates Juneteenth, and local markets are closed for the day. That said, there are no macroeconomic data or Federal Reserve (Fed) speakers to act as intraday catalysts for the US Dollar.

The next big event is the Bank of England (BoE) monetary policy decision on Thursday, although the announcement tends to have a limited impact on Gold prices. Policymakers have to deliver a huge surprise to actually move the bright metal bar.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, the daily chart shows a mildly bearish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) provides dynamic resistance, capping advances for a fourth consecutive day. At the same time, technical indicators stand flat just below their midlines, reflecting the absence of speculative interest. Finally, the 100 and 200 SMAs head firmly north, far below the current level, suggesting any upcoming side may be just corrective.

According to the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD is neutral in the near term. A mildly bullish 20 SMA provided intraday support at around $2,325, but sellers rejected advances around a marginally bearish 100 SMA. The 200 SMA, in the meantime, remains far above the current level, lacking directional strength. In the meantime, technical indicators rest just above their midlines, unable to provide directional clues.

Support levels: 2,325.00 2,314.25 2,298.10

Resistance levels: 2,334.00 2,351.90 2,366.30

XAU/USD Current price: $2,330.47

• Gold lacks directional strength, but keeps trading near record highs.
• Financial markets will trade on sentiment for much longer than believed.
• XAU/USD extends its consolidative phase above the $2,300 mark.

Gold has shown little signs of life in the last few days, but it’s worth remembering it stands at record levels. XAU/USD hit an all-time high of $2,449.92 in mid-May. The former record high was set two years ago at $2,070.45, way below its current comfort area above the $2,300 mark. With back and forths in between, XAU/USD has managed to add roughly 20% from the March 2022 peak. As a note of color, Gold was changing hands at around $1,550 when the Coronavirus pandemic hit the world early in 2020.

It’s not just about Covid-19. Recession, inflation, and war are also on the list of top concerns. What’s clear is that sentiment has taken over the lead of financial markets and will stay here for quite some time. Indeed, a corrective slide seems likely, but more likely, it seems speculative interest adding on dips. Uncertainty, now focused on when and how central banks will bring interest rates to “normal” levels, will last for much more than what everyday investors may believe.

Anyway, in the near term, the bright metal is lifeless amid a holiday in the United States (US). The country celebrates Juneteenth, and local markets are closed for the day. That said, there are no macroeconomic data or Federal Reserve (Fed) speakers to act as intraday catalysts for the US Dollar.

The next big event is the Bank of England (BoE) monetary policy decision on Thursday, although the announcement tends to have a limited impact on Gold prices. Policymakers have to deliver a huge surprise to actually move the bright metal bar.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, the daily chart shows a mildly bearish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) provides dynamic resistance, capping advances for a fourth consecutive day. At the same time, technical indicators stand flat just below their midlines, reflecting the absence of speculative interest. Finally, the 100 and 200 SMAs head firmly north, far below the current level, suggesting any upcoming side may be just corrective.

According to the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD is neutral in the near term. A mildly bullish 20 SMA provided intraday support at around $2,325, but sellers rejected advances around a marginally bearish 100 SMA. The 200 SMA, in the meantime, remains far above the current level, lacking directional strength. In the meantime, technical indicators rest just above their midlines, unable to provide directional clues.

Support levels: 2,325.00 2,314.25 2,298.10

Resistance levels: 2,334.00 2,351.90 2,366.30

The $2.50 level is an area that I’d be interested in watching. And then again, the $2 level. I am long in this market via the ETF in the United States, the UNG ETF, but I don’t have a huge position and I certainly wouldn’t be levered to natural gas because this is a market that can jump quite wildly. And most retail traders just simply don’t have access to the kind of information that matters, plants opening, closing, output, input, pipes in the United States, transmission, whether or not storage is full or not, weather over the next week, which is always a bit of a question as well, and a whole litany of other geopolitical concerns.

It’s a very tough market. I don’t mind having exposure to it, I just don’t want to be highly levered. A pullback probably has me adding more to my position to take advantage of, maybe in the fall as temperatures start to get colder and we start to see winter over the horizon.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

From its 40-year high of 11.1% in October 2022, the headline rate of inflation – the consumer prices index (CPI) – is back to the Bank of England’s 2% target rate.

The government, naturally, will seek to take credit for it. Rishi Sunak, after all, promised to halve inflation last year and was quick to point to that when it happened.

It was a piece of chutzpah that brought to mind the old saying “success has many fathers, but failure is an orphan”.

If anyone deserves credit for bringing down inflation to the target rate, it is arguably the Bank of England, whose interest rate rises from December 2021 to August last year bore down on demand and on some of the inflationary pressures that can build in an economy when demand is too high.

In so far as the government can take credit for bringing down inflation, it is because – since the debacle of Liz Truss’s short spell in 10 Downing Street – Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt have restored order to the public finances, calming the panic in markets which erupted when Ms Truss sought to introduce £45bn worth of unfunded tax cuts. 

From the depths it plumbed after the mini-budget in September 2022, sterling has rallied by 22% against the US dollar and by 9% against the euro.

All things being equal, that has brought down the cost of goods and services that the UK buys from the US and from countries in the Eurozone, which may at the margins have had an impact on inflation.

In other ways, though, government policies have helped push up inflation. Public sector pay between February and April this year, the latest period for which figures were available, was up 6.4% year on year. That obviously feeds into higher prices. 

The government has also just raised the national living wage by 9.8%, the biggest increase in history, which again will feed into higher prices, particularly in sectors such as hospitality. The chancellor has also actively increased inflation by raising taxes on tobacco, as he did last year.

So the government cannot really take that much of the credit for inflation falling to target.

The Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee deserves more. So, too, do some of the UK’s retailers. The latest figures published by the British Retail Consortium suggest Shop Price Inflation was running at an annual rate of just 0.6% in May – down from 1.3% in March. In other words, by bearing down on prices, retailers are contributing strongly to the decline in inflation. The market is competitive and consumers are benefiting.

In truth, though, most of the heavy lifting in bringing down inflation has come from so-called “base effects” – the impact of the corresponding “base” the previous year.

Prices can still be rising, but contribute to a lower headline rate of inflation. If the price of an item in the inflation basket was rising by 10% in April last year but was only rising by 5% in April this year, that automatically feeds through to a lower headline rate of inflation.

Inflation took off in 2022 mainly because of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which pushed up the price of oil and – thanks to Ukraine’s position as one of the world’s biggest exporters of corn, seed oils, wheat and rapeseed – a whole clutch of foodstuffs.

It had another boost when, at the end of 2022 and beginning of 2023, China suddenly relaxed its COVID restrictions – unleashing a big burst of demand from the world’s second-largest economy for commodities like oil. That pushed up prices elsewhere.

We have seen big falls in the energy price cap – a major contributor to lower inflation. Some of the biggest elements in the UK inflation basket – food and non-alcoholic drinks, clothing and footwear, furniture and household goods – are not rising in price to the extent that they were a year ago and certainly not to the extent they were in the autumn of 2022.

That is the main reason inflation has come back down to the Bank’s target rate.

A version of this analysis was first published a month ago as inflation dipped to 2.3%

XAU/USD Current price: $2,329.40

• United States Retail Sales missed expectations, Industrial Production resulted upbeat.
• US indexes maintain a positive tone after posting gains on Monday.
• XAU/USD approaches its comfort zone at around $2,330, with modest upward strength.

Spot Gold trades near $2,330 a troy ounce, with XAU/USD trimming early early losses. The pair fell towards the $2,300 mark throughout European trading hours, turning north following the release of United States (US) macroeconomic data. The country reported that Retail Sales rose a measly 0.1% in May, missing the 0.2% advance expected. Furthermore, the April reading was downwardly revised from 0.0% to -0.2%.

However, the US also released May Industrial Production data, which beat expectations by surging 0.9% MoM. Capacity Utilization in the same period rose 78.7%, better than the previous 78.2% and the 78.6% forecast.

The mixed news did little to change the generally optimistic mood among American investors. Wall Street closed in the green on Monday, and US indexes maintain the positive trajectory on Tuesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&p 500 extending weekly gains. The Nasdaq Composite, on the contrary, is down 16 points. As a result, the US Dollar is under near-term pressure against most of its major rivals.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, XAU/USD has made no progress. It trades within familiar levels for a second consecutive week. The daily chart shows it’s still developing below a bearish 20 SMA, providing dynamic resistance at around $2,335.00. At the same time, technical indicators have turned marginally lower but remain within negative levels, suggesting buying interest is not enough to trigger a bullish extension.

The near-term picture is neutral, although the risk skews to the upside. In the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD trades above a flat 20 SMA but below the 100 and 200 SMAs. The Momentum indicator aims modestly higher above its 100 line, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator aims north with more strength, standing at around 55.

Support levels: 2,314.25 2,298.10 2,286.70

Resistance levels: 2,335.00 2,351.90 2,366.30

XAU/USD Current price: $2,329.40

• United States Retail Sales missed expectations, Industrial Production resulted upbeat.
• US indexes maintain a positive tone after posting gains on Monday.
• XAU/USD approaches its comfort zone at around $2,330, with modest upward strength.

Spot Gold trades near $2,330 a troy ounce, with XAU/USD trimming early early losses. The pair fell towards the $2,300 mark throughout European trading hours, turning north following the release of United States (US) macroeconomic data. The country reported that Retail Sales rose a measly 0.1% in May, missing the 0.2% advance expected. Furthermore, the April reading was downwardly revised from 0.0% to -0.2%.

However, the US also released May Industrial Production data, which beat expectations by surging 0.9% MoM. Capacity Utilization in the same period rose 78.7%, better than the previous 78.2% and the 78.6% forecast.

The mixed news did little to change the generally optimistic mood among American investors. Wall Street closed in the green on Monday, and US indexes maintain the positive trajectory on Tuesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&p 500 extending weekly gains. The Nasdaq Composite, on the contrary, is down 16 points. As a result, the US Dollar is under near-term pressure against most of its major rivals.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, XAU/USD has made no progress. It trades within familiar levels for a second consecutive week. The daily chart shows it’s still developing below a bearish 20 SMA, providing dynamic resistance at around $2,335.00. At the same time, technical indicators have turned marginally lower but remain within negative levels, suggesting buying interest is not enough to trigger a bullish extension.

The near-term picture is neutral, although the risk skews to the upside. In the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD trades above a flat 20 SMA but below the 100 and 200 SMAs. The Momentum indicator aims modestly higher above its 100 line, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator aims north with more strength, standing at around 55.

Support levels: 2,314.25 2,298.10 2,286.70

Resistance levels: 2,335.00 2,351.90 2,366.30

Daily Close Above 2.92 Confirms

A rise and subsequent daily close above 2.92 will confirm the bullish breakout and the likely continuation of the rising trend. The 2.92 price level was the prior trend high from May 23. An advance above that price level will also put natural gas clearly back above the downtrend line. It if happens, the correction should be over and since it was relatively shallow with a quick recovery, it points to remaining underlying strength in demand for natural gas.

Trend Continuation Setting Up

Higher up is last Friday’s high of 3.00. A rise above that high would be needed to next to show improving upward momentum. Of course, the recent trend high of 3.16 is the more significant price level as a rise above it will signal a continuation of the rising trend.

Once natural gas closes above the downtrend line, it will be the second time (advance) that it has done so and therefore further confirms the bullish breakout above the line. It indicates that the trend is strengthening and improves the chance for a continuation to higher price levels. Initial upside targets that are above the prior trend high include the 3.39 price area and 3.64. Each was a prior swing high, and the second price was also the 2023 peak.

Support at 2.76 Needs to Hold

Alternatively, a downside break below 2.76 points to a test of lower support levels. The more significant lower target is the 200-Day MA, which is currently at 2.47. A test of support around the 200-Day line should see price rejected to the upside. Lower down from there is the 50-Day MA at 2.33.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

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• Gold price picks up fresh bids, despite a risk-on market sentiment. 
• The US Dollar attempts a bounce even as the US Treasury bond yields turn south again.
• The path of least resistance appears down for Gold price amid a Bear Cross and a bearish RSI.
• US Retail Sales data and Fedspeak remain on Gold traders’ radars.

Gold price is making a minor recovery attempt early Tuesday after witnessing a negative start to the week on Monday. Despite the bounce, Gold price looks vulnerable amid a renewed US Dollar uptick, as traders reposition ahead of speeches from a bunch of Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers and the high-impact US Retail Sales data.

Gold price tracks US Treasury bond yields move

Gold price has been tracking the moves in the US Treasury bond yields so far this week, pausing its previous decline amid a modest weakness in the US Treasury bond yields. With an extension of the Wall Street risk rally into Asia, however, it remains to be seen if Gold price remains supported in the lead-up to the US economic docket.

 Additionally, if the US Dollar rebound gains traction on robust Retail Sales data or hawkish remarks from Fed policymakers, Gold price could come under renewed selling pressure. US Retail Sales are expected to rise 0.2% MoM in May after reporting no growth in April. The core Retail Sales are likely to increase by 0.2% in May, at the same pace seen in April.

Meanwhile, the Fed speakers include Barkin, Kugler, Logan, Musalem and Goolsbee. Any hints from the officials warranting caution on inflation or pushing back against rate cuts will inject a fresh bout of strength into the US Dollar at the expense of Gold price.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

Despite the range-play seen in Gold price over the past week, risks remain skewed to the downside.

The Gold price upside is capped by the confluence zone of $2,345, where the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 50-day SMA hang around. On the other hand, the downside appears guarded by the May 3 low of $2,277.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stays bearish below the 50 level, currently near 48.00, justifying the downside risks.

Adding credence to the bearish potential, the 21-day SMA crossed the 50-day SMA from above on a daily closing basis on Friday, validating a Bear Cross.

The immediate support is now seen at the $2,300 threshold, below which the June 10 low of $2,287 will be tested.

A sustained break below the latter will threaten the May 3 low of $2,277, as sellers aim for the $2,250 psychological barrier.

Alternatively, any rebound in Gold price will need acceptance above the aforementioned key confluence support-turned-resistance near $2,345.

Gold buyers will then flex their muscles toward the May 24 high of $2,364 on their way to the June 7 high of $2,388.

 

• Gold price picks up fresh bids, despite a risk-on market sentiment. 
• The US Dollar attempts a bounce even as the US Treasury bond yields turn south again.
• The path of least resistance appears down for Gold price amid a Bear Cross and a bearish RSI.
• US Retail Sales data and Fedspeak remain on Gold traders’ radars.

Gold price is making a minor recovery attempt early Tuesday after witnessing a negative start to the week on Monday. Despite the bounce, Gold price looks vulnerable amid a renewed US Dollar uptick, as traders reposition ahead of speeches from a bunch of Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers and the high-impact US Retail Sales data.

Gold price tracks US Treasury bond yields move

Gold price has been tracking the moves in the US Treasury bond yields so far this week, pausing its previous decline amid a modest weakness in the US Treasury bond yields. With an extension of the Wall Street risk rally into Asia, however, it remains to be seen if Gold price remains supported in the lead-up to the US economic docket.

 Additionally, if the US Dollar rebound gains traction on robust Retail Sales data or hawkish remarks from Fed policymakers, Gold price could come under renewed selling pressure. US Retail Sales are expected to rise 0.2% MoM in May after reporting no growth in April. The core Retail Sales are likely to increase by 0.2% in May, at the same pace seen in April.

Meanwhile, the Fed speakers include Barkin, Kugler, Logan, Musalem and Goolsbee. Any hints from the officials warranting caution on inflation or pushing back against rate cuts will inject a fresh bout of strength into the US Dollar at the expense of Gold price.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

Despite the range-play seen in Gold price over the past week, risks remain skewed to the downside.

The Gold price upside is capped by the confluence zone of $2,345, where the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 50-day SMA hang around. On the other hand, the downside appears guarded by the May 3 low of $2,277.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stays bearish below the 50 level, currently near 48.00, justifying the downside risks.

Adding credence to the bearish potential, the 21-day SMA crossed the 50-day SMA from above on a daily closing basis on Friday, validating a Bear Cross.

The immediate support is now seen at the $2,300 threshold, below which the June 10 low of $2,287 will be tested.

A sustained break below the latter will threaten the May 3 low of $2,277, as sellers aim for the $2,250 psychological barrier.

Alternatively, any rebound in Gold price will need acceptance above the aforementioned key confluence support-turned-resistance near $2,345.

Gold buyers will then flex their muscles toward the May 24 high of $2,364 on their way to the June 7 high of $2,388.

 

Test of 20-Day Line Might Complete Retracement

Lower prices begin to put recent bullish activity at risk of failure. Although there could still be a brief drop lower in the short term, if a quick recovery follows it will put natural gas back in a position to progress its uptrend. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level is at 2.74. If the 20-Day line is busted, currently at 2.76, then natural gas will likely reach the 2.74 area.

If support is seen from there, followed by a recovery above the 20-Day line, the bullish price structure will be maintained. However, a drop below the 20-Day line where natural gas then stays below the line, will be short-term bearish. A failure of the bull pennant breakout is indicated on a drop below the center line at 2.70.

Rally Above Today’s High of 2.85 Shows Strength

If a bullish setup completes today, then a decisive breakout above today’s high of 2.85 will be a sign of strength. Today’s candlestick pattern may take the form of a bull hammer candlestick pattern. A daily close in the top third of the day’s range will be a stronger indication than a close lower than the top third of the range. A decisive advance above today’s high would then be a sign of strength that should continue to higher prices.

Bearish Weekly, but Quick Bullis Recovery Will Negate Implications

Today’s decline in natural gas also triggered a bearish reversal on a weekly time frame. The weekly pattern last week was of a bearish shooting start candle. It triggered today on a drop below 2.86 and it will confirm on a daily close below that price level.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

XAU/USD Current price: $2,315.65

• A better market mood after Wall Street’s opening weighed on Gold demand.
• The United States will release interesting macroeconomic data on Tuesday.
• XAU/USD may extend its slide towards a critical support level at $2,286.70.

XAU/USD came under selling pressure after Wall Street’s opening and trades near an intraday low of $2,309.84. The US Dollar was generally stronger throughout the Asian and European sessions as caution prevailed. China released mixed data at the beginning of the day, as May Industrial Production rose by 5.6% YoY, missing expectations, while Retail Sales in the same period were up 3.7%, beating estimates. The news fell short of boosting the market mood, which remained sour also during European trading hours amid political turmoil following far-right parties victory in the European Parlamentary election.

The optimistic tone of Wall Street, however, undermined demand for safe-haven assets. The US Dollar is down against most major rivals, while Gold loses ground against the USD. Firmer government bond yields add to XAU/USD slide, as the 10-year Treasury note offers 4.28%, up 7 basis points (bps), while the 2-year note yields 4.75%, also adding 7 bps.

Investors will now focus on Retail Sales, as the United States (US) will release May data on Tuesday. Sales are expected to have increased by a modest 0.2% in the month, improving from the previous 0% reading. The country will also release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for the same month.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The daily chart for XAU/USD shows a bearish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) that keeps attracting selling interest, providing dynamic resistance at around $2,340. The longer moving averages remain below the current level with bullish slopes, yet they are not close enough to be relevant. Finally, technical indicators aim lower within negative levels with limited downward momentum. Overall, the risk skews to the downside, yet the pair would need to pierce the June monthly low at 2,286.69 to signal a bearish continuation.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD is neutral-to-bearish. Gold trades below all its moving averages, although the 20 SMA is not far above the current level and flat, suggesting selling interest is limited. Technical indicators, in the meantime, turned marginally lower but remain within neutral levels.

Support levels: 2,298.10 2,286.70 2,271.90

Resistance levels: 2,321.55 2,333.10 2,340.00 

XAU/USD Current price: $2,315.65

• A better market mood after Wall Street’s opening weighed on Gold demand.
• The United States will release interesting macroeconomic data on Tuesday.
• XAU/USD may extend its slide towards a critical support level at $2,286.70.

XAU/USD came under selling pressure after Wall Street’s opening and trades near an intraday low of $2,309.84. The US Dollar was generally stronger throughout the Asian and European sessions as caution prevailed. China released mixed data at the beginning of the day, as May Industrial Production rose by 5.6% YoY, missing expectations, while Retail Sales in the same period were up 3.7%, beating estimates. The news fell short of boosting the market mood, which remained sour also during European trading hours amid political turmoil following far-right parties victory in the European Parlamentary election.

The optimistic tone of Wall Street, however, undermined demand for safe-haven assets. The US Dollar is down against most major rivals, while Gold loses ground against the USD. Firmer government bond yields add to XAU/USD slide, as the 10-year Treasury note offers 4.28%, up 7 basis points (bps), while the 2-year note yields 4.75%, also adding 7 bps.

Investors will now focus on Retail Sales, as the United States (US) will release May data on Tuesday. Sales are expected to have increased by a modest 0.2% in the month, improving from the previous 0% reading. The country will also release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for the same month.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The daily chart for XAU/USD shows a bearish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) that keeps attracting selling interest, providing dynamic resistance at around $2,340. The longer moving averages remain below the current level with bullish slopes, yet they are not close enough to be relevant. Finally, technical indicators aim lower within negative levels with limited downward momentum. Overall, the risk skews to the downside, yet the pair would need to pierce the June monthly low at 2,286.69 to signal a bearish continuation.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD is neutral-to-bearish. Gold trades below all its moving averages, although the 20 SMA is not far above the current level and flat, suggesting selling interest is limited. Technical indicators, in the meantime, turned marginally lower but remain within neutral levels.

Support levels: 2,298.10 2,286.70 2,271.90

Resistance levels: 2,321.55 2,333.10 2,340.00