• Aussie shares set to rise again after a modest tick up on Wall Street
• Gold price hit a new high
• Bank of America’s bullish predictions on gold and copper prices

 

Aussie shares are set to rise again on Wednesday after Wall Street ticked up modestly. At 8am AEDT, the ASX 200 index futures contract was pointing up by +0.4%.

Overnight, the S&P 500 rose by +0.14%, the blue chips Dow Jones index was down by -0.02%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq climbed by +0.32%.

US treasury yields dropped -5bp from a four-month high ahead of the US inflation report tonight, suggesting traders are positioning themselves for a soft print.

Gold stocks will be in focus today after the bullion price touched briefly above US$2,380 an ounce, extending its rally to hit a new record.

To stocks, the start of the US Q1 earnings season gets underway in earnest on Friday, which will provide the next catalyst for the market.

Nvidia’s shares fell nearly -2% after Intel revealed a new version of its AI chip at its Vision event. Intel’s shares rose +1%.

Moderna jumped by +6% to a three-month high after the company revealed positive responses in its early-stage cancer vaccine developed with Merck.

Alphabet lifted 1.3% to a one-year high after announcing a new video-creation app, Google Vids, which also utilises AI.

Meanwhile, respected market commentator Mohamed El-Erian said Europe’s ECB could cut rates faster than the Fed Reserve.

“The ECB is going to signal quite strongly that June will be when they cut, something the Fed will not do,” El-Erian said, adding that USD currency could trade at par with the EUR when that happens.

 

Gold and copper on bullish trajectory

The price of gold has risen over the past eight trading sessions, hitting a fresh record overnight.

At the time of writing, gold is trading at US$2,351.60 an ounce.

A note from Bank of America’s analysts say they project gold prices to jump to US$3,000 per ounce by 2025, buoyed by strong demand from central banks. The Chinese central bank, in particular, has amassed over 200 tonnes of the yellow metal in 2023 alone.

“And if the Fed ultimately starts cutting rates, investors should return to the market, also offsetting potentially lower Chinese investment demand as sentiment there improves and the economy accelerates.

“We had previously proposed a US$2,400/oz price estimate if the Fed cut rates in 1Q24; we now raise that and see gold rallying to US$3,000/oz by 2025,” said BoA’s note.

BoA is also sounding the alarm on a potential copper supply crisis, predicting that copper prices are expected to average US$10,750 per tonne in 2025, and US$12,000 per tonne in 2026 (copper currently trades at around US$9,411 per tonne).

“Tight copper mine supply is increasingly constraining refined production; the much-discussed lack of mine projects is finally starting to bite,” said BoA.

 

In other markets …

Gold price was up +0.53% to US$2,352.25 an ounce.

Oil prices came off another -1.3%, with Brent now trading at US$89.45 a barrel.

The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield fell by 5bp (bond prices higher) to 4.37%.

Iron ore 62% fe climbed further by +1.6% to US$104.33 a tonne.

The Aussie dollar lifted by +0.4% to US66.28.

Bitcoin meanwhile slumped -3.5% in the last 24 hours to US$69,236.

 

5 ASX small caps to watch today

Kinatico (ASX:KYP)
During Q3FY24, Kinatico earned $2.5m in SaaS revenue, an increase of 73% on pcp. Annualised SaaS revenue is now more than $10m. SaaS revenue for the quarter comprised 36% of Kinatico’s total Q3 revenue of $7.0m, an increase of 0.5% on pcp.

Wildcat Resources (ASX:WC8)
Exploration drilling beneath the Leia deposit has discovered a thick lithium mineralised repetition named the “Luke Pegmatite”, with best intercepts of: 41.0m @ 1.0% Li2O from 267m. Meanwhile diamond drilling at Leia continues to return impressive new results including: 68.0m @ 1.4% Li2O from 337m.

Neurotech (ASX:NTI)
Nurotech announced the 54th and final patient has completed their last visit for the Phase II/III NTIASD2 clinical trial for children with Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD). The trial recruited patients aged 8-17 (inclusive) with Level 2 (requiring substantial support) and Level 3 (requiring very substantial support) autism, who have now completed eight weeks of daily NTI164 treatment (the randomisation period of the trial).

Dart Mining (ASX:DTM)
Dart provided an update on field activities across the Dorchap Lithium Project in Northeast Victoria. Field reconnaissance of pegmatite targets highlighted by the LiDAR survey has been completed, with initial results received. Highlights include: Sample 70847 – 2m @ 2.35% Li2O – Boones North Dyke, and Sample 70840 – 5m @ 2.00% Li2O – Boones North Dyke.

Argenica Therapeutics (ASX:AGN)
Argenica has successfully dosed five patients in its acute ischaemic stroke Phase 2 clinical trial, representing the first cohort of patients to be reviewed by the Data Safety Monitoring Board (DSMB), highlighting a promising early recruitment response to date. The patients, who presented to both the Royal Melbourne Hospital and Princess Alexandra Hospital emergency departments, were enrolled into the trial following meeting the inclusion criteria: a confirmed diagnosis of an acute ischaemic stoke caused by a large vessel occlusion (LVO) and were eligible for mechanical thrombectomy.

 

At Stockhead we tell it like it is. While Neurotech is a Stockhead advertiser, it did not sponsor this article.

Crude oil futures closed with a second straight loss Tuesday, taking a sliver of profits after hitting nearly six-month highs sparked by geopolitical risks and tight supply.

Talks for a ceasefire in the Gaza war continued, but oil’s losses were limited following reports that Israel and Hamas are still far from an agreement.

Citing rising geopolitical risks, Morgan Stanley analysts raised their Brent crude price forecast for Q2 by $4.50/bbl to $92 and for Q3 by $4/bbl to $94.

The bank said it sees tightness in Q2 and Q3 with OPEC supply restraints, some downside to Russia production, and a seasonal upswing in demand ahead.

Its assessment of market fundamentals remains the same, but “when it comes to geopolitical risk, however, even small probabilities can add several dollars to oil prices,” according to Morgan Stanley analysts including Martijn Rats.

Spot crude could hit $100/bbl this year if OPEC+ maintains its production discipline and continues to withhold crude from the global markets, Vitol CEO Russell Hardy said.

In a supply constrained market with oil consumption set to grow by 1.9M bbl/day in 2024, a similar level to last year, oil at “$80-$100 feels a sensible range for the market given the OPEC control of inventories around the world,” Hardy told the Financial Times Commodities Global Summit in Switzerland.

Front-month Nymex crude (CL1:COM) for May delivery finished -1.4% to $85.23/bbl, and front-month June Brent crude (CO1:COM) closed -1% to $89.42/bbl.

ETFs: (NYSEARCA:USO), (BNO), (UCO), (SCO), (USL), (DBO), (DRIP), (GUSH), (NRGU), (USOI)

The U.S. Energy Information Administration raised its average price estimate for Brent crude this year to $89/bbl from $87, which it said “reflects our expectation of strong global oil inventory draws during this quarter and ongoing geopolitical risks,” adding that it forecasts an average $90/bbl for Brent in Q2.

Extended OPEC+ output cuts “add to upward price pressure right at a time of the year when oil demand typically increases because of the spring and summer driving seasons in the Northern Hemisphere,” the EIA said.

FXEmpire.com – Natural gas closed above its 50-Day MA for the first time since mid-January on Monday. That is a sign of strength that should see demand increase in the coming days. A teaser occurred today as natural gas rallied above the recent 1.91 minor swing high before encountering resistance at the day’s high of 1.92. An intraday selloff followed back to the lows of the day. Where it closes relative to the day’s range should provide a clue as to current sentiment.

Advance Continues Following 50-Day MA Breakout

There was minor confirmation of strength since the breakout above the 50-Day MA, as the 8-Day MA crossed above the 50-Day today for the first time since mid-January, today. Also, yesterday the 20-Day MA was successfully tested as support for the first time since the price of natural gas rallied back above the 20-Day line on April 1.

That cleared the way for further strengthening, which we saw yesterday and then again today. What happens next will be key though as a failed breakout is always possible. A second daily close above the 50-Day line today would dampen that possibility. Then, we need to see signs of further strengthening if natural gas is going to have a chance at reaching higher targets.

Potential Double Bottom Setup

A rally above the 2.01 (B) swing high will trigger a breakout of a double bottom bullish reversal pattern and a continuation of the current developing uptrend. At that point there would be a higher swing high that would follow the recent higher swing low (C). The first identified target from current levels is the completion of a small rising ABCD pattern at 2.08.

At that price the CD leg of the advance will match the price appreciation seen in the first leg up, marked A to B. Once there is price symmetry a potential resistance zone has been reached. There are also interim price targets on the way up to the double bottom target of 2.50.

Higher Targets

The consolidation high following the large gap down in late-January is at 2.17. However, the more notable 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level is at 2.24. That price level takes on a somewhat greater significance since it is also match with prior support at the December swing low.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

This article was originally posted on FX Empire

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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Sky News host James Macpherson says the cost of living crisis is about to get worse as the price of your morning coffee is “about to go up”.

St Ali coffee roasters chief executive, Lachlan Ward, told the Herald Sun on Tuesday cafes need to “be brave and adjust up” or risk closing their doors.

“The way we are pricing coffee in Australia is not sustainable,” Mr Ward said.

“Unless Australian cafes start adjusting prices up and charging a fair price for what we are making, the independent cafe won’t exist in the future.”

A survey conducted by The Conversation last month of specialty venues across Australia’s capital cities found the average price of a small takeaway flat white is $4.78.

But, Mr Ward said, Aussies should be paying a minimum $5.50 for the beverage (at St Ali’s South Melbourne outpost, the dine-in cost of a regular flat white is $6.50).

“We have incredible operators and beautiful cafes closing down weekly, we can’t look at cutting prices. Cutting isn’t good for any business,” he said.

Given our national penchant for whinging about coffee prices, Mr Ward’s comments, unsurprisingly, proved divisive among consumers.

One man deemed his remarks “idiotic”, while some said they reflected why they now get their caffeine fix at home.

“LOL! I’m sure it’s delicious but when you grab a coffee from 7/11 or Maccas for change (for the few of us that still use coins) how long do you expect to stay in business? People are cutting costs wherever they can but clearly in your fantasy land you believe they will pay a fortune for your coffee. Good luck with that!” another reader wrote in to the Herald Sun.

A third said: “When having a daily coffee becomes a financial consideration rather than a casual enjoyment (due to cost) then sales will drop off quickly – this line is fast approaching.”

“Ordinary middle class people are being squeezed out of any luxuries by elites, government taxes and social engineering,” another complained.

“Consumers will determine the market price. Charge what you want. People will either buy it or not. But don’t complain when you price yourself out of the market.”

Loading embed…

Others, however, said the rising price is par for the course given “costs for cafes to make great coffee have risen exponentially”.

“Cafes are the canary in the coal mine. I don’t think the general population understand the financial squeeze most are under, and they are going broke in record numbers,” one pointed out.

As adjunct senior researcher at the University of South Australia, Emma Felton, wrote for The Conversation, “given the quality of our coffee and its global reputation, it shouldn’t surprise us if we’re soon asked to pay a little bit more for our daily brew”.

“By international standards, Australian coffee prices are low. No one wants to pay more for essentials, least of all right now. But our independent cafes are struggling,” she said.

“By not valuing coffee properly, we risk losing the internationally renowned coffee culture we’ve worked so hard to create, and the phenomenal quality of cup we enjoy.”

One of the key factors keeping coffee prices low in Australia, Dr Felton said, is “consumer expectation”.

“For many people coffee is a fundamental part of everyday life, a marker of liveability. Unlike wine or other alcohol, coffee is not considered a luxury or even a treat, where one might expect to pay a little more, or reduce consumption when times are economically tough. We anchor on familiar prices,” she said.

“Because of this, it really hurts cafe owners to put their prices up. In touch with their customer base almost every day, they’re acutely aware of how much inflation can hurt … But specialty cafes face much higher operating costs, and when they’re next to a commodity-grade competitor, customers are typically unwillingly to pay the difference.”

Melbourne Coffee Academy director Charles Skadiang echoed the sentiment in a March interview with Yahoo Finance, pointing to the cost of beer in Australia increasing with indexation.

Mr Skadiang noted there’s far more skill involved in producing a high-quality coffee than pouring a pint.

“The thought of paying $7 for a cup of coffee is outrageous for a lot of people,” he said.

“But the amount of work that goes into it, you’ve got a skilled barista to train someone up to make a great coffee, it takes a lot of time.”

Crude oil inventories in the United States rose this week by 3.034 million barrels for the week ending April 5, according to The American Petroleum Institute (API). Analysts had expected an inventory build of 2.415 million barrels.

This comes after the API reported a 2.286 million barrel dip in crude inventories in the week prior.

On Tuesday, the Department of Energy (DoE) reported that crude oil inventories in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) rose by another 0.6 million barrels as of April 5. Inventories are now at 364.2 million barrels-the highest point since last April.

Oil prices were trading down ahead of the API data release on Tuesday as ceasefire talks continue, with losses capped by the failure to make significant progress in reaching a deal that would end the conflict.  

At 4:13 pm ET, Brent crude was trading down 0.96% on the day at $89.51, although still up nearly $1 per barrel from this time last week. The U.S. benchmark WTI was also trading down on the day by 1.26% at $85.34, up roughly $.30 per barrel compared to last Tuesday.

Gasoline inventories fell this week by 609,000 barrels, after falling 1.416 million barrels in the week prior. As of last week, gasoline inventories were about 3% below the five-year average for this time of year, according to the latest EIA data.

Distillate inventories rose this week by 120,000 barrels, after last week’s 2.548-million-barrel loss. Distillates were 7% below the five-year average for the week ending March 29, the latest EIA data shows.

Cushing inventories saw a build this week, rising 124,000 barrels after falling by 781,000 barrels in the previous week.

By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com

More Top Reads From Oilprice.com:

Iranian people are standing in front of an anti-U.S. and anti-Israeli banner during a rally commemorating International Quds Day, also known as Jerusalem Day, and attending a funeral for members of the IRGC Quds Force who were killed in an Israeli air strike in Syria, in Tehran, Iran, on April 5, 2024.

Morteza Nikoubazl | Nurphoto | Getty Images

Crude oil futures rose Wednesday after two days of losses as Israel threatened to attack Iran if the Islamic Republic strikes Israel directly.

The West Texas Intermediate contract for May delivery gained 31 cents, or 0.36%, to $85.54 a barrel. June Brent futures added 28 cents, or 0.31%, to $89.70 a barrel.

St Ali coffee roasters chief executive, Lachlan Ward, told the Herald Sun on Tuesday cafes need to “be brave and adjust up” or risk closing their doors.

“The way we are pricing coffee in Australia is not sustainable,” Mr Ward said.

“Unless Australian cafes start adjusting prices up and charging a fair price for what we are making, the independent cafe won’t exist in the future.”

A survey conducted by The Conversation last month of specialty venues across Australia’s capital cities found the average price of a small takeaway flat white is $4.78.

But, Mr Ward said, Aussies should be paying a minimum $5.50 for the beverage (at St Ali’s South Melbourne outpost, the dine-in cost of a regular flat white is $6.50).

“We have incredible operators and beautiful cafes closing down weekly, we can’t look at cutting prices. Cutting isn’t good for any business,” he said.

Given our national penchant for whinging about coffee prices, Mr Ward’s comments, unsurprisingly, proved divisive among consumers.

One man deemed his remarks “idiotic”, while some said they reflected why they now get their caffeine fix at home.

“LOL! I’m sure it’s delicious but when you grab a coffee from 7/11 or Maccas for change (for the few of us that still use coins) how long do you expect to stay in business? People are cutting costs wherever they can but clearly in your fantasy land you believe they will pay a fortune for your coffee. Good luck with that!” another reader wrote in to the Herald Sun.

A third said: “When having a daily coffee becomes a financial consideration rather than a casual enjoyment (due to cost) then sales will drop off quickly – this line is fast approaching.”

“Ordinary middle class people are being squeezed out of any luxuries by elites, government taxes and social engineering,” another complained.

“Consumers will determine the market price. Charge what you want. People will either buy it or not. But don’t complain when you price yourself out of the market.”

Others, however, said the rising price is par for the course given “costs for cafes to make great coffee have risen exponentially”.

“Cafes are the canary in the coal mine. I don’t think the general population understand the financial squeeze most are under, and they are going broke in record numbers,” one pointed out.

As adjunct senior researcher at the University of South Australia, Emma Felton, wrote for The Conversation, “given the quality of our coffee and its global reputation, it shouldn’t surprise us if we’re soon asked to pay a little bit more for our daily brew”.

“By international standards, Australian coffee prices are low. No one wants to pay more for essentials, least of all right now. But our independent cafes are struggling,” she said.

“By not valuing coffee properly, we risk losing the internationally renowned coffee culture we’ve worked so hard to create, and the phenomenal quality of cup we enjoy.”

One of the key factors keeping coffee prices low in Australia, Dr Felton said, is “consumer expectation”.

“For many people coffee is a fundamental part of everyday life, a marker of liveability. Unlike wine or other alcohol, coffee is not considered a luxury or even a treat, where one might expect to pay a little more, or reduce consumption when times are economically tough. We anchor on familiar prices,” she said.

“Because of this, it really hurts cafe owners to put their prices up. In touch with their customer base almost every day, they’re acutely aware of how much inflation can hurt … But specialty cafes face much higher operating costs, and when they’re next to a commodity-grade competitor, customers are typically unwillingly to pay the difference.”

Melbourne Coffee Academy director Charles Skadiang echoed the sentiment in a March interview with Yahoo Finance, pointing to the cost of beer in Australia increasing with indexation.

Mr Skadiang noted there’s far more skill involved in producing a high-quality coffee than pouring a pint.

“The thought of paying $7 for a cup of coffee is outrageous for a lot of people,” he said.

“But the amount of work that goes into it, you’ve got a skilled barista to train someone up to make a great coffee, it takes a lot of time.”

What is the price of platinum today?

The price of platinum opened at $971.05 per ounce, as of 9 a.m. That’s down 1.40% from the previous day and down 1.69% from the beginning of the year.

The lowest trading price within the last day: $964.10 per ounce. The highest platinum spot price in the last 24 hours: $988.85 per ounce.

Platinum spot price

Platinum price chart

The chart below shows how the spot price of platinum is trending over the year.

Year to date, platinum is down 1.69%, as of 9 a.m. The 52-week high reached $1,135.49 on April 21, 2023, and the 52-week low dropped to $843.15 on Nov. 10, 2023.

The precious, silvery-colored metal is priced in U.S. dollars. This means that the fluctuations in the value of the U.S. dollar can impact its price.

The price of XPT/USD reflects the value of one ounce of platinum in U.S. dollars, and it is traded like traditional currency pairs. Because platinum trades occur globally, investors can also track the spot price of platinum in other currencies, such as XPT/EUR for euros and XPT/GBP for British pounds.

Factors that can influence the price of platinum include changes in demand, geopolitical events and tensions in major platinum-producing countries. Of course, investor opinion and speculation can also affect prices.

Precious metals spot prices

Platinum is one of four main precious metals investors can trade via physical bullion, exchange-traded products or futures contracts. Gold, silver and palladium spot prices are also updated 24/7 in various currencies.

Platinum vs. gold price

Currently, platinum trades at $971.05 per ounce, as of 9 a.m., compared to gold, which trades at $2,338.47 per ounce. Year to date, platinum prices are down by 1.69% and gold prices are up by 13.17%.

“Historically, platinum has often been more expensive than gold due to its relative scarcity and unique properties. However, the price of platinum can fluctuate in response to changing market conditions,” said John Bergquist, president of Elysium Financial.

Political instability and supply disruptions in major platinum-producing regions like South Africa and Russia affect prices.

The silvery metal also tends to be a less reliable store of value than gold.

While historically, platinum has been pricier than gold, that flip-flopped briefly in August 2011. When looking at the gold-to-platinum price ratio, platinum was priced above gold from January 2013 until December 2014. Since then, gold has more than doubled its value compared to platinum prices.

Platinum price history

Like any metal, the price of platinum can be volatile. Various factors affect it, the most significant being supply and demand dynamics. Other factors, such as economic conditions, geopolitical events, and changes in industrial and investment demand, can also impact the price of platinum.

At the start of the new millennium, the precious metal’s spot price was around $420. Fast-forward over 20 years, and the current price of platinum has more than doubled.

The spot price soared to new heights, trading in February 2008 at around $2,200 per troy ounce. In November of that year, the price returned to less than $1,000.

Platinum’s spot price has fluctuated between around $800 to $1,400 for the past decade, hovering around the $1,000 threshold on average.

Platinum prices today remain historically low. Prices dropped as low as $623.50 in March 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic. While prices have recovered, platinum is nowhere near its all-time high of $2,213.20, set on March 3, 2008.

Platinum futures

Futures contracts let investors speculate on the future price movements of an underlying asset like platinum.

These financial contracts represent an agreement between two parties to trade a set amount of platinum at a specified price at a future date. They can be settled by exchanging the physical commodity or cash in place of the commodity.

Futures contracts differ from spot prices in that futures contracts establish a future price whereas spot prices are for immediate delivery. These contracts can be fulfilled by trading the physical commodity or exchanging cash in place of the underlying asset. They are usually traded through an exchange.

Platinum as an investment

The automotive industry creates the highest demand for platinum. Platinum is a key component in manufacturing catalytic converters, which are responsible for reducing vehicle emissions.

In addition to the automotive industry, platinum is widely used in the industrial industry to create medical products, nitric acid and glass. As the demand for these products rises, so does the price of platinum.

It is anticipated that platinum will play an essential role in the development of hydrogen technology. Platinum is used to produce carbon-free hydrogen from renewable energy.

“If hydrogen-based power meets expectations in the coming decade, then one could expect a material demand tailwind in platinum,” said Stash Graham, managing director of Graham Capital Wealth Management.

Precious metals such as platinum, gold and silver have long been used to diversify an investment portfolio.

When choosing investments, it is crucial to consider potential drawbacks. While there may be an increase in the demand for platinum, other factors may throw a wrench in the investment benefits.

When considering an investment, it is essential to consider your current holdings and individual financial goals.

Platinum is rarer than both silver and gold, which could make it attractive to investors seeking a scarce metal. This practice helps protect other holdings, such as stocks, in an economic downturn. Investing in platinum can help balance inflation and economic uncertainties.

Frequently asked questions (FAQs)

How is the spot price of platinum determined?

The London Bullion Market Association is responsible for price auctions of platinum and other industrial metals.

Do platinum prices move with silver and gold?

Platinum pricing is set independently from gold and silver prices, yet there is a historical correlation between the prices of these metals. Although platinum is rarer than silver and gold, metals with industrial uses tend to fluctuate similarly.

At least three people have been reported dead and five more injured following an explosion at a hydroelectric plant in northern Italy, the Associated Press reported on Wednesday, noting that at least four others remain missing in the accident in the latest update.  

“We are working, but with a few hopes of finding missing people alive,” a firefighter spokesperson told AP on Wednesday, adding that. “We are working in very complex and difficult conditions. The floor hit by the explosion was dry and now has 50 centimeters (19 inches) of water.”

The explosion took place after the collapse of the underground structure during maintenance work on Italian utility giant Enel’s Bargi plant, south of the city of Bologna. The hydroelectric facility is an aging, massive, nine-story underground behemoth, and collapse of the structure led to a fire and flooding, AP reported, citing the local media.   

“With reference to the serious accident that occurred at the Bargi power plant near Bologna, Italy, Enel Green Power once again expresses its deepest condolences and closeness to all the victims and their families,” Enel said in a statement, noting that Enel Green Power CEO Salvatore Bernabei visited the site of the disaster to personally coordinate with the authorities. 

According to Enel, maintenance testing for a second electricity generation group was underway when the structure collapsed. There was no damage to the dam, according to Enel.  

At the time of writing, the search effort for those reported missing was still underway. According to Italy’s SKY news, three of those injured remain in serious condition. 

The deadly explosion highlights an increasingly sensitive worker safety issue in Italy, prompting two of the biggest trade unions to announce a four-hour nationwide strike for Thursday, AP reports. 

By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com

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