Natural gas futures are trading sharply lower early Wednesday as investors price in another change in the weather forecast for later in the month. The steep break puts the market in a position to challenge last week’s low. According to Natural Gas Intelligence, the American weather model is supportive, but the European model indicates milder temperatures ahead.

At 10:19 GMT, April natural gas futures are trading $2.625, down $0.080 or -2.96%.

“The overnight weather models were mixed heading into Tuesday’s session, with the Global Forecast System (GFS) little changed but with the European model losing numerous heating degree days,” according to NatGasWeather.

“The main difference is the GFS is colder by favoring a weaker and shorter break over the East around February 23, and is also more aggressive with cold returning across the East February 24-27,” NatGasWeather said.

Additionally, the European weather model is now looking for milder weather for February 23-27. “One of these models is wrong, and the overnight data will be watched closely to see which one gives in to the other,” NatGasWeather said.

Short-Term Weather Outlook

NatGasWeather is saying for February 13-19, “A fast moving weather system will bring rain, snow and ice across the East today, followed by a milder break late in the week. The West will be cool to cold and unsettled. The southern US will be mild to warm with highs of 60s to 80s, although cooling Friday-Saturday. This week-end and next week will be quite chilly as cold air sweeps across much of the country with lows of -10s to 20s North and 20s to 40s over the South. Overall, national demand will be moderate through Thursday, then high Friday through next week.”

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

This week’s U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly storage report is expected to show a draw of 79 Bcf for the week-ending February 8.

Other News

“The US Energy Information Administration on Tuesday scaled back its first quarter 2019 estimates for natural gas production and consumption, but continued to expect that record production over the next two years will take the edge off natural gas prices and allow gas to grow its share of the generation mix,” S&P Global Platts reported.

Daily Forecast

Wednesday’s early price action indicates the market is still bearish. The price action indicates that traders are favoring the milder European model at this time. This model is calling for milder weather February 23-27.

Technically, the trend is down. The short-term range is $2.565 to $2.730. The mid-point of this range at $2.648 is controlling the direction of the market. Currently, the April natural gas futures contract is trading below this level, giving it today’s downside bias. If the downside momentum continues then look for the selling to possibly extend into last week’s low at $2.565.

Prices could accelerate to the downside if the GFS weather model flips and joins the European model in forecasting milder weather later this month. We could see a short-covering rally if the European model reverses its current bearish outlook.

Please let us know what you think in the comments below. 

This article was originally posted on FX Empire

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Gold (XAU/USD) Weekly Forecast: Bullish

• Gold volatility subsides ahead of high importance US data
• Gold nudges higher despite lack of major bullish drivers
• Risk events ahead: US quarterly refunding announcement, FOMC, NFP
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Gold Volatility Subsides Ahead of High Importance US Data

Gold volatility has subsided drastically now that the risk of a broader conflict between Israel and Iran have been greatly reduced. Riskier assets like the S&P 500 and high-beta currencies like the Aussie dollar and British pound managed to claw back prior losses as risk sentiment improved. As a result, gold’s former safe haven bid has had the wind taken out of its sails.

In the coming week, the US Treasury is set to update the public on details of its funding needs and will provide specifics around whether bond issuance is likely to favour shorter or longer duration – which is likely to affect the shorter and longer dated yields and potentially, gold.

Gold Volatility Index (GVZ)

Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow

Gold Nudges Higher Despite Lack of Major Bullish Drivers

The precious metal may soon have to face the reality of the Fed funds rate remaining higher for longer after inflation data proved worrisome on Friday. A string of hotter-than-expected price data culminated in Friday’s PCE print where both headline and core inflation beat expectations.

Increasing attention has been placed on shorter-term measures of price trends like the month-on-month comparisons, which has been rising – which hasn’t gone unnoticed at the Fed. Jerome Powell acknowledged the undesirable uptick in inflation but reiterated that policy is poised to react to any outcome and the Vice Chairman of the Fed, John Williams even made mention of another hike is needed.

The prospect of higher inflation has forced markets to backtrack on ambitious rate cuts initially eyed for 2024, extending the dollars longer-term strength. A stronger dollar and rising yields have had little effect on the precious metal when geopolitical uncertainty was at its peak, but with the recent de-escalation and in the absence of any further catalysts, gold bulls may soon run out of momentum.

Gold bounced off of support at $2320 – a prior swing low. If prices remain above this level, the bullish continuation remains constructive. However, in the absence of a catalyst, the upside potential may be greatly reduced.

Gold Daily Chart

Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow

Gold market trading involves a thorough understanding of the fundamental factors that determine gold prices like demand and supply, as well as the effect of geopolitical tensions and war. Find out how to trade the safe haven metal by reading our comprehensive guide:

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Major Risk Events in the Week Ahead

Risk events next week include both scheduled and geopolitical events to be aware of. On the geopolitical front, despite the Israel-Iran tensions subsiding, news of Russia striking power facilities on Ukraine could slow the risk on sentiment that transpired in the trading week gone by.

Scheduled risk events include the FOMC meeting where there is no realistic expectation of a change to interest rates but markets will be focused on how concerned officials are regarding the re-acceleration of inflation that has emerged since the start of the year.

Thereafter, non-farm payroll data is likely to inject more volatility – even if this is short-lived – into dollar denominated markets like gold. The labour market continues to show resilience, further delaying the first rate cut from the Fed. Another point to note is that US ISM manufacturing data will draw more attention than usual after Q1 GDP disappointed massively on Thursday, showing early signs of vulnerability for the world’s largest economy.

Customize and filter live economic data via our DailyFX economic calendar

— Written by Richard Snow for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow Richard on Twitter: @RichardSnowFX

99 Pages Report: Latest Report of Long Black Coffee Market 2023

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Number of Tables and Figures- 99

Long Black Coffee Market Report Revenue by Type (Medium/Regular Cup Type, Large Cup Type, Extra Large Cup Type), Forecasted Market Size by Application (Starbucks, Costa Coffee, McCafe, Tim Horton’s, Gloria Jeans, Dunkin Donuts, Peet’s Coffee, Lavazza, Caribou Coffee, Nescafe, Folgers, Keurig, Maxwell House, Eight O’clock, Gevalia, Bru Coffee, Luckin Coffee)

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TOP COMPANIES/MANUFACTURERS Dominating the Global Long Black Coffee Market are listed below:

• Coffee Shop
• Roast Coffee Company
• Distribute Coffee Company
• Others

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Market Analysis and Insights: Global Long Black Coffee Market

The global Long Black Coffee market was valued at USD million in 2023 and it is expected to reach USD million by the end of 2032, growing at a CAGR of Percent during 2021-2032. The influence of COVID-19 and the Russia-Ukraine War were considered while estimating market sizes.

Global Long Black Coffee Market: Drivers and Restrains

The research report has incorporated the analysis of different factors that augment the market’s growth. It constitutes trends, restraints, and drivers that transform the market in either a positive or negative manner. This section also provides the scope of different segments and applications that can potentially influence the market in the future. The detailed information is based on current trends and historic milestones. This section also provides an analysis of the volume of production about the global market and about each type from 2023 to 2032. This section mentions the volume of production by region from 2023 to 2032. Pricing analysis is included in the report according to each type from the year 2023 to 2032, manufacturer from 2023 to 2021, region from 2023 to 2021, and global price from 2023 to 2032.

A thorough evaluation of the restrains included in the report portrays the contrast to drivers and gives room for strategic planning. Factors that overshadow the market growth are pivotal as they can be understood to devise different bends for getting hold of the lucrative opportunities that are present in the ever-growing market. Additionally, insights into market expert’s opinions have been taken to understand the market better.

Global Long Black Coffee Market: Segment Analysis

The research report includes specific segments by region (country), by manufacturers, by Type and by Application. Each type provides information about the production during the forecast period of 2023 to 2032. by Application segment also provides consumption during the forecast period of 2023 to 2032. Understanding the segments helps in identifying the importance of different factors that aid the market growth.

Long Black Coffee Market Segmentation By Type:

• Medium/Regular Cup Type
• Large Cup Type
• Extra Large Cup Type

Long Black Coffee Market Segmentation By Application:

• Starbucks
• Costa Coffee
• McCafe
• Tim Horton’s
• Gloria Jeans
• Dunkin Donuts
• Peet’s Coffee
• Lavazza
• Caribou Coffee
• Nescafe
• Folgers
• Keurig
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• Eight O’clock
• Gevalia
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Global Long Black Coffee Market: Scope of the Report

This report provides an all-inclusive assessment of the analysis for the Global Long Black Coffee Market. The market estimates provided in the report are the result of in-depth secondary research, primary interviews and in-house expert reviews. These market estimates have been considered by studying the impact of various social, political and economic factors along with the current market dynamics affecting the Global Long Black Coffee Market growth.

Along with the market overview, which comprises of the market dynamics the chapter includes a Porter’s Five Forces analysis which explains the five forces: namely buyers bargaining power, suppliers bargaining power, threat of new entrants, threat of substitutes, and degree of competition in the Global Long Black Coffee Market. It explains the various participants, such as system integrators, intermediaries and end-users within the ecosystem of the market. The report also focuses on the competitive landscape of the Global Long Black Coffee Market.

REPORT OVERVIEW INFOGRAPHICS:-

Geographically, this report is segmented into several key regions, with sales, revenue, market share and growth Rate of Long Black Coffee in these regions, from 2023 to 2032, covering

North America (United States, Canada and Mexico)

Europe (Germany, UK, France, Italy, Russia and Turkey etc.)

Asia-Pacific (China, Japan, Korea, India, Australia, Indonesia, Thailand, Philippines, Malaysia and Vietnam)

South America (Brazil, Argentina, Columbia etc.)

Middle East and Africa (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt, Nigeria and South Africa)

Global Long Black Coffee Market: Competitive Landscape

The market analysis entails a section solely dedicated for major players in the Global Long Black Coffee Market wherein our analysts provide an insight to the financial statements of all the major players along with its key developments product benchmarking and SWOT analysis. The company profile section also includes a business overview and financial information. The companies that are provided in this section can be customized according to the client’s requirements.

The global Long Black Coffee market Growth is anticipated to rise at a considerable rate during the forecast period, between 2023 and 2032. In 2023, the market was growing at a steady rate and with the rising adoption of strategies by key players, the market is expected to rise over the projected horizon. Long Black Coffee Market Forecast by regions, type and application, with sales and revenue, from 2023 to 2032.

Long Black Coffee Market Report also mentions market share accrued by each product in the Long Black Coffee market, along with the production growth. Long Black Coffee Market Trend for Development and marketing channels are analysed. Finally, the feasibility of new investment projects is assessed, and overall research conclusions offered. Long Black Coffee Market Analysis Report focuses on Long Black Coffee Market key trends and Long Black Coffee Market segmentation (Types, Application), and all the regions.

Study Objectives of this report are:

– To study and analyze the global Long Black Coffee market size (value & volume) by company, key regions/countries, products and application, history data from 2019 to 2020, and forecast to 2032.

– To understand the structure of Long Black Coffee market by identifying its various subsegments.

– To share detailed information about the key factors influencing the growth of the market (growth potential, opportunities, drivers, industry-specific challenges and risks).

– Focuses on the key global Long Black Coffee manufacturers, to define, describe and analyze the sales volume, value, market share, market competition landscape, SWOT analysis and development plans in next few years.

– To analyze the Long Black Coffee with respect to individual growth trends, future prospects, and their contribution to the total market.

– To project the value and volume of Long Black Coffee submarkets, with respect to key regions (along with their respective key countries).

– To analyze competitive developments such as expansions, agreements, new product launches, and acquisitions in the market.

– To strategically profile the key players and comprehensively analyze their growth strategies.

Long Black Coffee Market Size (sales, revenue) forecast by regions and countries from 2023 to 2032 of Long Black Coffee industry.The detailed information is based on current trends and historic milestones. This section also provides an analysis of the volume of production about the global market and about each type from 2019 to 2032. This section mentions the volume of production by region from 2019 to 2032. Pricing analysis is included in the report according to each type from the year 2019 to 2032, manufacturer from 2019 to 2023, region from 2019 to 2023, and global price from 2019 to 2032.Long Black Coffee Market Share, distributors, major suppliers, changing price patterns and the supply chain of raw materials is highlighted in the report.

Key Stakeholders

• Raw material suppliers
• Distributors/traders/wholesalers/suppliers
• Regulatory bodies, including government agencies and NGO
• Commercial research & development (R&D) institutions
• Importers and exporters
• Government organizations, research organizations, and consulting firms
• Trade associations and industry bodies
• End-use industries

This Long Black Coffee Market Research/Analysis Report Contains Answers to your following Questions

• Which Manufacturing Technology is used for Long Black Coffee? What Developments Are Going On in That Technology? Which Trends Are Causing These Developments?
• Who Are the Global Key Players in This Long Black Coffee Market? What are Their Company Profile, Their Product Information, and Contact Information?
• What Was Global Market Status of Long Black Coffee Market? What Was Capacity, Production Value, Cost and PROFIT of Long Black Coffee Market?
• What Is Current Market Status of Long Black Coffee Industry? What’s Market Competition in This Industry, Both Company, and Country Wise? What’s Market Analysis of Long Black Coffee Market by Taking Applications and Types in Consideration?
• What Are Projections of Global Long Black Coffee Industry Considering Capacity, Production and Production Value? What Will Be the Estimation of Cost and Profit? What Will Be Market Share, Supply and Consumption? What about Import and Export?
• What Is Long Black Coffee Market Chain Analysis by Upstream Raw Materials and Downstream Industry?
• What Is Economic Impact On Long Black Coffee Industry? What are Global Macroeconomic Environment Analysis Results? What Are Global Macroeconomic Environment Development Trends?
• What Are Market Dynamics of Long Black Coffee Market? What Are Challenges and Opportunities?
• What Should Be Entry Strategies, Countermeasures to Economic Impact, and Marketing Channels for Long Black Coffee Industry?

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Detailed TOC of Global Long Black Coffee Market Report 2023

1 Long Black Coffee Report Overview

1.1 Long Black Coffee Research Scope

1.2 Market Segment by Type

1.2.1 Global Long Black Coffee Market Size Growth Rate by Type, 2018 VS 2023 VS 2032

1.3 Market Segment by Application

1.3.1 Global Long Black Coffee Market Size Growth Rate by Application, 2018 VS 2023 VS 2032

1.4 Study Objectives

1.5 Years Considered

2 Global Market Production

2.1 Global Long Black Coffee Production Capacity (2018-2032)

2.2 Global Long Black Coffee Production by Region: 2018 VS 2023 VS 2032

2.3 Global Long Black Coffee Production by Region

2.3.1 Global Long Black Coffee Historic Production by Region (2018-2023)

2.3.2 Global Long Black Coffee Forecasted Production by Region (2023-2032)

2.4 Market Dynamics

2.4.1 Long Black Coffee Industry Trends

2.4.2 Long Black Coffee Market Drivers

2.4.3 Long Black Coffee Market Challenges

2.4.4 Long Black Coffee Market Restraints

3 Global Long Black Coffee Sales

3.1 Global Long Black Coffee Sales Estimates and Forecasts 2018-2032

3.2 Global Long Black Coffee Revenue Estimates and Forecasts 2018-2032

3.3 Global Long Black Coffee Revenue by Region: 2018 VS 2023 VS 2032

3.4 Global Top Long Black Coffee Regions by Sales

3.4.1 Global Top Long Black Coffee Regions by Sales (2018-2023)

3.4.2 Global Top Long Black Coffee Regions by Sales (2023-2032)

3.5 Global Top Long Black Coffee Regions by Revenue

3.5.1 Global Top Long Black Coffee Regions by Revenue (2018-2023)

3.5.2 Global Top Long Black Coffee Regions by Revenue (2023-2032)

4 Competition by Manufacturers

4.1 Global Long Black Coffee Production Capacity by Manufacturers

4.2 Global Long Black Coffee Sales by Manufacturers

4.2.1 Global Top Long Black Coffee Manufacturers by Sales (2018-2023)

4.2.2 Global Top Long Black Coffee Manufacturers Market Share by Sales (2018-2023)

4.2.3 Global Top 10 and Top 5 Companies by Long Black Coffee Sales in 2023

4.3 Global Long Black Coffee Revenue by Manufacturers

4.3.1 Global Top Long Black Coffee Manufacturers by Revenue (2018-2023)

4.3.2 Global Top Long Black Coffee Manufacturers Market Share by Revenue (2018-2023)

4.3.3 Global Top 10 and Top 5 Companies by Long Black Coffee Revenue in 2023

4.4 Global Long Black Coffee Sales Price by Manufacturers

4.5 Analysis of Competitive Landscape

4.5.1 Manufacturers Market Concentration Ratio (CR5 and HHI)

4.5.2 Global Long Black Coffee Market Share by Company Type (Tier 1, Tier 2, and Tier 3)

4.5.3 Global Long Black Coffee Manufacturers Geographical Distribution

4.6 Mergers & Acquisitions, Expansion Plans

5 Estimates and Forecasts by Type

5.1 Global Long Black Coffee Sales by Type

5.1.1 Global Long Black Coffee Historical Sales by Type (2018-2023)

5.1.2 Global Long Black Coffee Forecasted Sales by Type (2023-2032)

5.1.3 Global Long Black Coffee Sales Market Share by Type (2018-2032)

5.2 Global Long Black Coffee Revenue by Type

5.2.1 Global Long Black Coffee Historical Revenue by Type (2018-2023)

5.2.2 Global Long Black Coffee Forecasted Revenue by Type (2023-2032)

5.2.3 Global Long Black Coffee Revenue Market Share by Type (2018-2032)

5.3 Global Long Black Coffee Price by Type

5.3.1 Global Long Black Coffee Price by Type (2018-2023)

5.3.2 Global Long Black Coffee Price Forecast by Type (2023-2032)

6 Long Black Coffee Market Size by Application

6.1 Global Long Black Coffee Sales by Application

6.1.1 Global Long Black Coffee Historical Sales by Application (2018-2023)

6.1.2 Global Long Black Coffee Forecasted Sales by Application (2023-2032)

6.1.3 Global Long Black Coffee Sales Market Share by Application (2018-2032)

6.2 Global Long Black Coffee Revenue by Application

6.2.1 Global Long Black Coffee Historical Revenue by Application (2018-2023)

6.2.2 Global Long Black Coffee Forecasted Revenue by Application (2023-2032)

6.2.3 Global Long Black Coffee Revenue Market Share by Application (2018-2032)

6.3 Global Long Black Coffee Price by Application

6.3.1 Global Long Black Coffee Price by Application (2018-2023)

6.3.2 Global Long Black Coffee Price Forecast by Application (2023-2032)

7 North America

7.1 North America Long Black Coffee Sales Breakdown by Company

7.2 North America Long Black Coffee Market Size by Type

7.3 North America Long Black Coffee Market Size by Application

7.4 North America Long Black Coffee Market Size by Country

8 Europe

8.1 Europe Long Black Coffee Sales Breakdown by Company

8.2 Europe Long Black Coffee Market Size by Type

8.3 Europe Long Black Coffee Market Size by Application

8.4 Europe Long Black Coffee Market Size by Country

9 Asia Pacific

9.1 Asia Pacific Long Black Coffee Sales Breakdown by Company

9.2 Asia Pacific Long Black Coffee Market Size by Type

9.3 Asia Pacific Long Black Coffee Market Size by Application

9.4 Asia Pacific Long Black Coffee Market Size by Region

10 Latin America

10.1 Latin America Long Black Coffee Sales Breakdown by Company

10.2 Latin America Long Black Coffee Market Size by Type

10.3 Latin America Long Black Coffee Market Size by Application

10.4 Latin America Long Black Coffee Market Size by Country

11 Middle East and Africa

11.1 Middle East and Africa Long Black Coffee Sales Breakdown by Company

11.2 Middle East and Africa Long Black Coffee Market Size by Type

11.3 Middle East and Africa Long Black Coffee Market Size by Application

11.4 Middle East and Africa Long Black Coffee Market Size by Country

12 Company Profiles

13 Value Chain and Sales Channels Analysis

13.1 Long Black Coffee Value Chain Analysis

13.2 Long Black Coffee Key Raw Materials

13.2.1 Key Raw Materials

13.2.2 Raw Materials Key Suppliers

13.3 Long Black Coffee Production Mode & Process

13.4 Long Black Coffee Sales and Marketing

13.4.1 Long Black Coffee Sales Channels

13.4.2 Long Black Coffee Distributors

13.5 Long Black Coffee Customers

14 Key Findings

15 Appendix

15.1 Research Methodology

15.1.1 Methodology/Research Approach

15.1.2 Data Source

15.2 Author Details

15.3 Disclaimer

Continued….

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Out of Symmetrical Triangle, Eyes Higher Levels

The 1.94 swing high matches the previous trend low from April 2023 at 1.95. Therefore, it has some longer-term significance. It was exceeded to the upside over several days in early-March but there was no close above that price level. This means that a daily close above 1.95 will provide a sign of increasing demand and that a breakout above the 2.01 swing high is a bullish signal.

Also, notice that today’s advance exceeded the lower dashed blue declining parallel channel line, another sign of strength. Further, the trendline on the relative strength index momentum oscillator (RSI) was busted to the upside today. Nevertheless, what happens in the coming days will be more revealing than today’s price action.

Further Confirmation of Strength Needed

It doesn’t look like today will end above the 1.94 swing low. So, moving forward a daily close above that price level will provide confirmation of strength. And, on a daily close above the lower blue channel line, although it is more of a sign of strength rather than a reliable signal.

There are several upside price levels to watch, and more details will be discussed in the future. For now, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement completes at 2.22. That area is also highlighted by the swing low from mid-December. If there is a rally above 2.01, higher targets become more likely of being tested.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

We just don’t know. But what I do know is that once we get below $1.50, suddenly natural gas drillers will stop drilling because they don’t get into business to lose money. So, I do think based on that and history, that this is an area that we will see a certain amount of accumulation. I don’t know if we see a run towards the $9 level like we did a couple of cycles ago, but a target of $2.50 is very realistic sometime this year.

We just don’t know when that’s going to be. Keep in mind there’s a lot of supply out there right now. So, we need something to drill down supply, be it demand or possibly some type of geopolitical situation in the Middle East. Full disclosure, this position is part of my trading account, but it’s about 2% of my total holdings. It’s not a big position at all, and therefore I never really pay attention to it as far as a profit and loss standpoint.

But every week or so, just to see if anything’s changed. Obviously not much has.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

• The crude oil markets have been very noisy over the last several days, and at this point in time it’s obvious to me that the market is going to continue to search for some type of stability.
• After all, we have seen a massive run higher, followed by a massive selloff that has made both grades of crude oil that I follow very difficult to hang onto.

West Texas Intermediate Crude

The WTI Crude market has gone back and forth during the early hours on Thursday, as we continue to dance around the $82.50 level. Furthermore, we also have the 50-Day EMA underneath offering support, and we are essentially in the middle of the overall consolidation range between the $80 level on the bottom, and the $85 level on the top. As things stand right now, this is a market that looks very neutral, but it seems as if we are completely ignoring a lot of the geopolitical propellants out there that could jump into this market.

Brent Crude

Brent markets of course have behave very similarly, with the 50-Day EMA hanging around the $85.75 level. This is a market that seems like it is trying to sort out what it was to do as well, with the $84.50 level underneath being a major support level, and the $90 level above being a major resistance barrier. As we are close to the middle of the market, I don’t necessarily think we are in a scenario where you would see a lot of certainty, so therefore I think you have to look at this through the prism of either a longer-term trade that is trying to set up, or to simply trading back and forth.

• 

Looking at the overall situation around the world, supply is still an issue, and we obviously have a lot of geopolitical concerns. Those geopolitical concerns could cause massive headaches for crude oil markets, and then of course the latest headlines coming out of Iran or Israel could have a direct effect on these markets. Because of this, be very cautious with your position sizing.

Ready to trade the WTI/USD exchange rate? Here’s a list of some of the best Oil trading platforms to check out. 

Monthly Support May Continue to Hold

Monthly support is also at the 1.59 swing low. During April natural gas has remained within the range from March forming a possible second sequential inside month. Therefore, a sustained breakdown below 1.59, if it occurs before the end of the month, will trigger an inside month breakdown from March. That’s a bearish signal that could be followed by an expansion of volatility.

Strong Support at or Above 1.52 May Continue

As noted above, the 1.52 price level is significant and may continue to act as support. Consequently, if volatility expands there is a possibility the 1.52 level is broken. If that happens the next lower target is around 1.44, a 29-year low. However, there is another price area to watch at 1.49. That is the target from an extended retracement of the six-month rally that began from the prior trend low a year ago.

Contraction in Volatility

If April ends without a breakdown below last month’s low, there will be two inside months further highlighting the decline in volatility experienced recently. As price compresses it prepares for its next move and a pickup in volatility. That could come from a bounce off monthly support or a breakdown.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

XAU/USD Current price: $2,329.29

• The US Gross Domestic Product missed expectations, spurring concerns.
• Inflationary pressures increased in the United States in the first quarter of the year.
• XAU/USD holds on to modest intraday gains, with the bearish case losing steam.

Spot Gold remains confined to familiar levels, trading at around $2,330 in the American afternoon. XAU/USD experienced some volatility following the release of United States (US) macroeconomic data, which put a sour taste in traders’ mouths. The country released the preliminary estimate of the Q1 Gross Domestic Product, which showed the economy grew at an annual pace of 1.6% in the three months to March, missing the expected 2.5% and much weaker than the 3.4% posted in the last quarter of 2023.

Furthermore, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose at a 3.4% annualized pace for the quarter, much higher than the previous 1.8% and the biggest gain in a year. In a few words, growth slowed, but the economy continued expanding while inflation picked up. Such a scenario further delays a potential rate cut from the Federal Reserve (Fed). The US Dollar surged while Wall Street plummeted as an immediate reaction to the news. The USD, however, was unable to preserve its momentum as US data throughout the week has been disappointing.

The initial fears receded, and US indexes trimmed part of their losses but retain the red. Nevertheless, continued demand for safety maintained XAU/USD evenly balanced.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, XAU/USD has made little progress. It is trading just above the  23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the $1,996.06/$2,431.43 rally. In the daily chart, a bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) stands around the same level, with the price struggling to extend gains above it. The longer moving averages, in the meantime, maintain their bullish slopes far below the shorter one. Finally, the Momentum indicator keeps heading south at around its 100 level, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator turned north within positive levels.

Generally speaking, Gold tends to benefit against the USD in a risk-averse environment, which skews the risk to the upside. In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD offers a neutral-to-bullish stance. The Momentum indicator is losing its upward strength but holds above its 100 line, while the RSI indicator consolidates around 47, reflecting the absence of apparent directional strength. At the same time, a mildly bullish 100 SMA provides dynamic resistance at around $2,343.50, while the 20 SMA aims lower below the current level.

Support levels: 2,310.00 2,295.20 2,282.90

Resistance levels: 2,343.50 2,361.55 2,372.90

XAU/USD Current price: $2,329.29

• The US Gross Domestic Product missed expectations, spurring concerns.
• Inflationary pressures increased in the United States in the first quarter of the year.
• XAU/USD holds on to modest intraday gains, with the bearish case losing steam.

Spot Gold remains confined to familiar levels, trading at around $2,330 in the American afternoon. XAU/USD experienced some volatility following the release of United States (US) macroeconomic data, which put a sour taste in traders’ mouths. The country released the preliminary estimate of the Q1 Gross Domestic Product, which showed the economy grew at an annual pace of 1.6% in the three months to March, missing the expected 2.5% and much weaker than the 3.4% posted in the last quarter of 2023.

Furthermore, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose at a 3.4% annualized pace for the quarter, much higher than the previous 1.8% and the biggest gain in a year. In a few words, growth slowed, but the economy continued expanding while inflation picked up. Such a scenario further delays a potential rate cut from the Federal Reserve (Fed). The US Dollar surged while Wall Street plummeted as an immediate reaction to the news. The USD, however, was unable to preserve its momentum as US data throughout the week has been disappointing.

The initial fears receded, and US indexes trimmed part of their losses but retain the red. Nevertheless, continued demand for safety maintained XAU/USD evenly balanced.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, XAU/USD has made little progress. It is trading just above the  23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the $1,996.06/$2,431.43 rally. In the daily chart, a bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) stands around the same level, with the price struggling to extend gains above it. The longer moving averages, in the meantime, maintain their bullish slopes far below the shorter one. Finally, the Momentum indicator keeps heading south at around its 100 level, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator turned north within positive levels.

Generally speaking, Gold tends to benefit against the USD in a risk-averse environment, which skews the risk to the upside. In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD offers a neutral-to-bullish stance. The Momentum indicator is losing its upward strength but holds above its 100 line, while the RSI indicator consolidates around 47, reflecting the absence of apparent directional strength. At the same time, a mildly bullish 100 SMA provides dynamic resistance at around $2,343.50, while the 20 SMA aims lower below the current level.

Support levels: 2,310.00 2,295.20 2,282.90

Resistance levels: 2,343.50 2,361.55 2,372.90

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