• Gold prices settled around $2300 per ounce (XAUUSD) on Tuesday’s trading, hovering near their lowest levels in about three weeks as fears of a wider Middle East conflict receded.
• Investors had reduced their investments in safe-haven assets in favor of riskier assets after Tehran downplayed the significance of Israel’s retaliatory drone strike against Iran in an effort to ease tensions.
• In addition, continued pressure on gold prices came from hawkish comments from several Federal Reserve officials, who reiterated the possibility of keeping US interest rates high for an extended period to control inflation.
• Higher interest rates tend to reduce the attractiveness of non-yielding assets like gold.

According to economic calendar data, investors are now looking ahead to the release of US personal consumption expenditure (PCE) data for March on Friday, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, for more clarity on the direction of monetary policy. Investors are also awaiting US first-quarter GDP figures.

• 

Commenting on gold market performance, Richard Gris, Director of Gold, and FX Analysis at ITCM Markets, said that the easing of Middle East tensions “has seen some profit-taking, and there is likely to be some tactical short-selling, given the recent rally in gold prices.” Overall, however, the yellow metal is still up about 16% since mid-February, with gains supported by geopolitical risks, central bank buying and Chinese consumer demand. Moreover, the precious metal had risen despite gains in the US dollar and Treasury yields amid signals that the Federal Reserve will delay its much-anticipated pivot.

Currently, traders are turning their attention to US economic data scheduled for release this week, including the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, which may give more clues on the path of monetary policy. Policymakers have turned increasingly hawkish on interest rate expectations in recent weeks after a series of strong inflation reports. As markets continue to ease expectations of monetary easing this year, the price of the metal may have to reckon with the possibility of a higher interest rate environment for a longer period, a scenario that would typically be a headwind for gold since it does not pay interest.

Gold Price Forecast and Analysis Today:

Based on the performance on the daily timeframe chart, the price of gold (XAUUSD) is still in an upward trend despite recent selling pressure. Technically, the first break in the trend will occur if the price of gold moves towards support levels of $2265 and $2155 per ounce respectively. Recently, we still prefer buying gold from all downward levels as geopolitical tensions have eased but not ended, and global central bank purchases of gold remain at record levels. At the same time, many central banks are considering easing their policies. therefore, if the price of gold stabilizes above the resistance level of $2365, bulls may find an opportunity to retest the psychological resistance level of $2400 once again.

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• Silver price extends its downside near $26.95 on Tuesday. 
• The easing fear of wider tensions in the Middle East improves market sentiment.
• Reduced Fed rate cut speculation boosts the USD and drags the white metal lower. 

Silver price (XAG/USD) trades on a softer note for the second consecutive day around $26.95 on Tuesday during the early European session. The easing fear of wider Middle East tensions improves market sentiment and creates a headwind for the precious metal. Traders prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of the US preliminary S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for April, due later on Tuesday. 

The silver price drifts sharply lower to nearly three-week lows as concerns about a potential broader conflict in the Middle East fade, leading traders to reduce their precious metal positions and favour riskier assets. Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian stated on Friday that Iran does not plan to respond to Israel’s retaliatory strike, while Israeli authorities remained mostly silent. The absence of public statements afterward tends to imply that both sides are attempting to ease tensions. 

Additionally, the lower expectation for interest rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) amid the robust. US economic data and hawkish stances from policymakers provide some support to the US Dollar (USD) and weigh on the US Dollar-denominated silver. New York Fed President John Williams noted that he doesn’t feel urgency to cut interest rates, given the strength of the economy. Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee stated that the Fed’s current restrictive monetary policy is appropriate due to the robust US economic data. 

It’s worth noting that the higher-for-longer US rate narrative might dampen demand for white metal, a non-interest-bearing asset. The chance of a June cut has fallen to 15%, and the odds of a July cut have dropped below 45%. A September cut is not fully priced in, with the probability falling below 70%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. 

 

• Gold price sees a fresh leg down in Asia on Tuesday even as risk flows dissipate.
• Receding fears over Middle East escalation offset subdued US Dollar and Treasury bond yields.
• Gold price remains heavily oversold on the 4H chart, rebound appears in the offing.  

Gold price is extending the previous day’s corrective decline into Tuesday’s Asian trading, having hit the lowest level in 12 days at $2,296.

Global Preliminary PMIs to dominate on Tuesday

Easing worries of a wider regional conflict in the Middle East combined with a tech rally on Wall Street overnight contributed to the latest leg down in Gold price, as risk flows extended into Asia.

However, investors seem to turn cautious ahead of the key US tech earnings reports and preliminary business PMI data from the UK, Eurozone and the US, which could help provide cues on the timing of the interest rate cuts by major central banks, especially by the US Federal Reserve (Fed).

Last week, Fed policymakers, including Chair Jerome Powell, joined the chorus to maintain the rates ‘higher for longer’. Markets now price in the first Fed rate cut in September, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, the total easing expected this year would just be 40 basis points, a sea change from about 150 basis points of cuts priced in at the beginning of the year, per Reuters.

Increased bets for delayed Fed rate cuts continue to act as a headwind for the Gold price alongside hopes that there would be no further escalation in the conflict between Israel and Iran after the latter downplayed Israel’s retaliatory drone strike against Tehran.

In the lead-up to the global PMI data releases, the US Dollar consolidates the previous pullback amid a cautious market mood. If risk-aversion picks up steam on disappointing PMI reports, the US Dollar could regain upside traction, exacerbating the pain in Gold price.

However, dismal PMIs could also imply decelerating economic performance in advanced economies, fanning expectations of early policy pivot. The revival in the bets for an earlier than September Fed rate cut could help Gold price stage a decent upswing.

The US S&P Global preliminary Manufacturing PMI is seen a tad higher at 52.0 in April, against the 51.9 reading in March. The Services PMI is also likely to rise to 52.0 in the same period versus a 51.7 figure reported previously.

Gold price technical analysis: Four-hour chart

As observed on the four-hour chart, Gold price came under intense selling pressure after yielding a four-hourly candlestick close below the 50-Simple Moving Average (SMA), then at $2,370.

The sell-off extended below the 100-day SMA support at $2,334, having tested bids under $2,300.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a leading indicator, is in a highly oversold region, near 28.50, suggesting that a rebound remains on the cards in the near term.

If Gold price attempts a tepid bounce, the initial hurdle would be seen at around the $2,320 round level, above which the 100-SMA support-turned-resistance at $2,334 will be tested.

A sustained move above the latter is critical to unleashing further recovery toward the 21-SMA and 50-SMA confluence points near $2,365.

The rebound in Gold price could remain limited, as a 21-SMA and 50-SMA Bear Cross remains in play.

Should Gold sellers refuse to give in, the next key demand area is seen between $2,284 and $2,274.

The last line of defense for Gold buyers could be the 200-SMA, aligned at $2,252.

 

• Gold price sees a fresh leg down in Asia on Tuesday even as risk flows dissipate.
• Receding fears over Middle East escalation offset subdued US Dollar and Treasury bond yields.
• Gold price remains heavily oversold on the 4H chart, rebound appears in the offing.  

Gold price is extending the previous day’s corrective decline into Tuesday’s Asian trading, having hit the lowest level in 12 days at $2,296.

Global Preliminary PMIs to dominate on Tuesday

Easing worries of a wider regional conflict in the Middle East combined with a tech rally on Wall Street overnight contributed to the latest leg down in Gold price, as risk flows extended into Asia.

However, investors seem to turn cautious ahead of the key US tech earnings reports and preliminary business PMI data from the UK, Eurozone and the US, which could help provide cues on the timing of the interest rate cuts by major central banks, especially by the US Federal Reserve (Fed).

Last week, Fed policymakers, including Chair Jerome Powell, joined the chorus to maintain the rates ‘higher for longer’. Markets now price in the first Fed rate cut in September, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, the total easing expected this year would just be 40 basis points, a sea change from about 150 basis points of cuts priced in at the beginning of the year, per Reuters.

Increased bets for delayed Fed rate cuts continue to act as a headwind for the Gold price alongside hopes that there would be no further escalation in the conflict between Israel and Iran after the latter downplayed Israel’s retaliatory drone strike against Tehran.

In the lead-up to the global PMI data releases, the US Dollar consolidates the previous pullback amid a cautious market mood. If risk-aversion picks up steam on disappointing PMI reports, the US Dollar could regain upside traction, exacerbating the pain in Gold price.

However, dismal PMIs could also imply decelerating economic performance in advanced economies, fanning expectations of early policy pivot. The revival in the bets for an earlier than September Fed rate cut could help Gold price stage a decent upswing.

The US S&P Global preliminary Manufacturing PMI is seen a tad higher at 52.0 in April, against the 51.9 reading in March. The Services PMI is also likely to rise to 52.0 in the same period versus a 51.7 figure reported previously.

Gold price technical analysis: Four-hour chart

As observed on the four-hour chart, Gold price came under intense selling pressure after yielding a four-hourly candlestick close below the 50-Simple Moving Average (SMA), then at $2,370.

The sell-off extended below the 100-day SMA support at $2,334, having tested bids under $2,300.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a leading indicator, is in a highly oversold region, near 28.50, suggesting that a rebound remains on the cards in the near term.

If Gold price attempts a tepid bounce, the initial hurdle would be seen at around the $2,320 round level, above which the 100-SMA support-turned-resistance at $2,334 will be tested.

A sustained move above the latter is critical to unleashing further recovery toward the 21-SMA and 50-SMA confluence points near $2,365.

The rebound in Gold price could remain limited, as a 21-SMA and 50-SMA Bear Cross remains in play.

Should Gold sellers refuse to give in, the next key demand area is seen between $2,284 and $2,274.

The last line of defense for Gold buyers could be the 200-SMA, aligned at $2,252.

 

Oil prices rebounded in Asian trading on Tuesday, finding support from the prospect of tightening supplies over the coming months, despite easing concerns of an Iran-Israel war which had previously escalated oil prices to near six-month highs.

The decline in geopolitical risk premiums in oil was linked to reduced fears of direct conflict between Iran and Israel, as Iran downplayed the impact of recent strikes and showed no immediate intent to retaliate.

Bioactive Components in Coffee Market” Size, Share, and Trends Analysis Report 2024: By Types (by Product Type, Organic, Conventional, by Extraction Methods, Solid-liquid extraction, Solid-phase extraction, Liquid-liquid extraction, Others, by Source, Arabica, Robusta, Others, , In Chapter 7 and Chapter 10, on the basis of applications, the Bioactive Components in Coffee market from 2018 to 2028 covers:, Food & Beverage, Pharmaceutical, Others), By Applications (Food & Beverage, Pharmaceutical, Others), By Segmentation Analysis, Regions, and Forecast to 2032. The Bioactive Components in Coffee Top Manufacturers’ Market Status is comprehensively analyzed in the Global Bioactive Components in Coffee Market Report, which includes Full TOC, Graphs & Statistics, Illustration with The Key Analysis, Pre & Post COVID-19 Market Emerging Impact Analysis & Situation by Regions, significance, Definition, SWOT analysis, PESTAL analysis, expert opinions, and the latest global developments.

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Who is the largest manufacturers of Bioactive Components in Coffee Market worldwide?

• BASF
• Nutragreen Biotechnology
• Jilin Shulan
• Indfrag
• EUROMED SA
• Taj Pharmaceuticals
• Applied Food Sciences
• Bakul Group
• Zhejiang Skyherb
• CSPC
• Naturex
• Sabinsa Corporation
• Cymbio Pharma
• Changsha staherb natural ingredients
• Spectrum Chemical
• Aarti Healthcare
• Kudos Chemie Limited
• Chenguang Biotech
• Shandong Xinhua
• Changsha E.K HERB

Short Description About Bioactive Components in Coffee Market:

The Global Bioactive Components in Coffee Market is anticipated to rise at a considerable rate during the forecast period, between 2022 and 2031. In 2021, the market is growing at a steady rate and with the rising adoption of strategies by key players, the market is expected to rise over the projected horizon.

According to the latest research, the global Bioactive Components in Coffee market size was valued at USD million in 2022 and is expected to expand at a CAGR during the forecast period, reaching USD million by 2028.This report elaborates on the market size, market characteristics, and market growth of the Bioactive Components in Coffee industry between the year 2018 to 2028, and breaks down according to the product type, downstream application, and consumption area of Bioactive Components in Coffee. The report also introduces players in the industry from the perspective of the value chain and looks into the leading companies.Key Points this Global Bioactive Components in Coffee Market Report Include:Market Size Estimates: Bioactive Components in Coffee market size estimation in terms of revenue and sales from 2018-2028Market Dynamic and Trends: Bioactive Components in Coffee market drivers, restraints, opportunities, and challengesMacro-economy and Regional Conflict: Influence of global inflation and Russia & Ukraine War on the Bioactive Components in Coffee marketSegment Market Analysis: Bioactive Components in Coffee market revenue and sales by type and by application from 2018-2028Regional Market Analysis: Bioactive Components in Coffee market situations and prospects in major and top regions and countriesBioactive Components in Coffee Market Competitive Landscape and Major Players: Analysis of 10-15 leading market players, sales, price, revenue, gross, gross margin, product/service profile and recent development/updates, etc.Bioactive Components in Coffee Industry Chain: Bioactive Components in Coffee market raw materials & suppliers, manufacturing process, distributors by region, downstream customersBioactive Components in Coffee Industry News, Policies by regionsBioactive Components in Coffee Industry Porters Five Forces Analysis

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What Are the Factors Driving applications of the Growth of the Bioactive Components in Coffee Market?

• Food & Beverage
• Pharmaceutical
• Others

What is the Bioactive Components in Coffee Market growth?

Bioactive Components in Coffee Market Size is projected to Reach Multimillion USD by 2032, In comparison to 2022, at unexpected CAGR during the forecast Period 2024-2032.

Browse Detailed TOC, Tables and Figures with Charts which is spread across 94 Pages that provides exclusive data, information, vital statistics, trends, and competitive landscape details in this niche sector.

What Are the Types of Bioactive Components in Coffee Market Available in The Market?

The market is segmented based on the following product types, which in 2022 represented the largest share of the global Bioactive Components in Coffee market.

• by Product Type
• Organic
• Conventional
• by Extraction Methods
• Solid-liquid extraction
• Solid-phase extraction
• Liquid-liquid extraction
• Others
• by Source
• Arabica
• Robusta
• Others
• In Chapter 7 and Chapter 10, on the basis of applications, the Bioactive Components in Coffee market from 2018 to 2028 covers:
• Food & Beverage
• Pharmaceutical
• Others

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Which Regions Are Leading the Bioactive Components in Coffee Market?

• North America (United States, Canada and Mexico)
• Europe (Germany, UK, France, Italy, Russia and Turkey etc.)
• Asia-Pacific (China, Japan, Korea, India, Australia, Indonesia, Thailand, Philippines, Malaysia and Vietnam)
• South America (Brazil, Argentina, Columbia etc.)
• Middle East and Africa (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt, Nigeria and South Africa)

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This Bioactive Components in Coffee Market Research/Analysis Report Contains Answers to your following Questions

• What are the current worldwide trends in the Bioactive Components in Coffee market? In the upcoming years, will demand on the market grow or dropped?
• What is the estimated demand for different types of products in Consumer Goods Contract Packaging? What are the upcoming industry applications and trends for Bioactive Components in Coffee Market?
• What Are Projections of Global Bioactive Components in Coffee Market Industry Considering Capacity, Production and Production Value? What Will Be the Estimation of Cost and Profit? What Will Be Market Share, Supply and Consumption? What about Import and Export?
• Where will the strategic developments take the industry in the mid to long-term?
• What are the factors contributing to the final price of Consumer Goods Contract Packaging? What are the raw materials used for Bioactive Components in Coffee Market manufacturing?
• How big is the opportunity for the Bioactive Components in Coffee Market? How will the increasing adoption of Bioactive Components in Coffee Market for mining impact the growth rate of the overall market?
• How much is the global Bioactive Components in Coffee Market worth? What was the value of the market in 2020?
• Who are the major players operating in the Bioactive Components in Coffee Market? Which companies are the front runners?
• Which are the recent industry trends that can be implemented to generate additional revenue streams?
• What Should Be Entry Strategies, Countermeasures to Economic Impact, and Marketing Channels for Bioactive Components in Coffee Market Industry?

Bioactive Components in Coffee Market – Covid-19 Impact and Recovery Analysis:

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Detailed TOC of Global Bioactive Components in Coffee Market Research Report 2023

1 Bioactive Components in Coffee Market Overview

1.1 Product Overview and Scope of Bioactive Components in Coffee

1.2 Bioactive Components in Coffee Segment by Type

1.3 Bioactive Components in Coffee Segment by Application

1.4 Global Market Growth Prospects

1.5 Global Market Size by Region

2 Market Competition by Manufacturers

2.1 Global Bioactive Components in Coffee Production Capacity Market Share by Manufacturers (2017-2023)

2.2 Global Bioactive Components in Coffee Revenue Market Share by Manufacturers (2017-2023)

2.3 Bioactive Components in Coffee Market Share by Company Type (Tier 1, Tier 2 and Tier 3)

2.4 Global Bioactive Components in Coffee Average Price by Manufacturers (2017-2023)

2.5 Manufacturers Bioactive Components in Coffee Production Sites, Area Served, Product Types

2.6 Bioactive Components in Coffee Market Competitive Situation and Trends

3 Production Capacity by Region

3.1 Global Production Capacity of Bioactive Components in Coffee Market Share by Region (2017-2023)

3.2 Global Bioactive Components in Coffee Revenue Market Share by Region (2017-2023)

3.3 Global Bioactive Components in Coffee Production Capacity, Revenue, Price and Gross Margin (2017-2023)

3.4 North America Bioactive Components in Coffee Production

3.5 Europe Bioactive Components in Coffee Production

3.6 China Bioactive Components in Coffee Production

3.7 Japan Bioactive Components in Coffee Production

4 Global Bioactive Components in Coffee Consumption by Region

4.1 Global Bioactive Components in Coffee Consumption by Region

4.2 North America

4.3 Europe

4.4 Asia Pacific

4.5 Latin America

5 Segment by Type

5.1 Global Bioactive Components in Coffee Production Market Share by Type (2017-2023)

5.2 Global Bioactive Components in Coffee Revenue Market Share by Type (2017-2023)

5.3 Global Bioactive Components in Coffee Price by Type (2017-2023)

6 Segment by Application

6.1 Global Bioactive Components in Coffee Production Market Share by Application (2017-2023)

6.2 Global Bioactive Components in Coffee Revenue Market Share by Application (2017-2023)

6.3 Global Bioactive Components in Coffee Price by Application (2017-2023)

7 Key Companies Profiled

Continue…

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2024-04-22 07:37:11 ET

Copper price continued its remarkable bull run this week, making it one of the best-performing metals this year. It has jumped to $4.5, its highest point in over two years. It jumped for four straight days and by over 120% from its lowest point in March 2020. Notably, copper has risen for five straight week, the first time it happened since 2020.

Manufacturing activity is recovering

The price of copper is jumping because of the rising manufacturing activity around the world. A report by ISM showed that the US manufacturing PMI rose to 52 in March, the first time that happened in over two years.

The same trend is happening in other countries. In China, the biggest manufacturer in the world, saw its PMI jump to 50.8, signalling that the activity is doing well. A recent report also showed that China’s industrial production jumped by 5.3% in March.

Analysts believe that this recovery will continue in the coming years as demand of clean energy items rise. Most reports estimate that the copper industry will remain in a deficit because of the rising demand.

Copper supply problems

The other reason why copper price is soaring is the ongoing supply challenges. Just last week, the Biden administration rejected a 211-mile industrial road in Alaska that would have helped turn the state into the biggest copper project in the US. The road would have cost the company $7.5 billion.

This Alaska project is not the only one facing permitting headwinds many copper projects around the world. Studies show that most new mines take over a decade conducting permitting and environmental impact assessment (EIA) studies.

Another example is a $10 billion mine in Panama, which was

cancelled

this month, costing First Quantum billions of dollars. The Cobre Panama mine was expected to bring over $10 billion in revenue and was supposed to account for between 4% and 5% of the country’s GDP.

At the same time, most of the copper mines in existence today are from aging mines, which are costly to produce. A good example of this is Chile’s biggest mine, which is producing below 250k metric tons today compared to over 500k in 2010.

Other companies in Chile, including

Teck Resources

, have seen the cost of mining jump, leading to lower production.

Meanwhile, the price of copper has surged because of the rising inflation around the world. Other commodities like crude oil, gold, silver, and platinum have also jumped sharply in the past few months.

These commodities are seen as hedges against inflation since their prices rise when inflation is rising.

Copper price forecast

Copper chart by TradingView

The price of copper has jumped sharply in the past few weeks. Its price has risen for five weeks straight, moving to its highest level since April 2022. The price has jumped above the crucial resistance at $4.35, its highest swing in January 2023.

It has also formed a cup and handle pattern, which is usually a bullish sign. Copper has also jumped above the 50-week moving average and the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement level. Therefore, the outlook for copper is bullish, with the next point to watch being at $5, the highest swing in March 2022.

The post

Copper price forecast: here’s why it is in an unstoppable bull run

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• Gold price extends pullback as Middle East fears calm down.
• US Dollar weakens amid upbeat mood, despite rebounding US Treasury bond yields.
• Gold price targets $2,350 on a sustained break below 50-SMA at $2,370 on the 4H chart.

Gold price has returned to the red in Monday’s Asian trading, snapping two back-to-back days of gains. The extended Gold price pullback could be attrbuted to a renewed uptick in the US Treasury bond yields, as markets calm down after no further geopolitical escalation in the Middle East over the weekend.  

Focus shifts to top-tier US events this week

Reports on early Friday that Israeli missiles struck a site in Iran, per ABC News, citing a US official, triggered broad risk-aversion. However, no official comments from Israel confirming the same and denial by Iranian authorities turned markets into a risk reset mode.

Gold price initially spiked up to near $2,420 on mounting geopolitical risks but pulled back to settle below the $2,400 threshold, as risk sentiment recovered. The sharp turn around in the US Dollar and the US Treasury bond yields also contributed to the retracement in Gold price last Friday.

In Monday’s trading so far, investors are breathing a sigh of relief amid a likely thaw in the Israel-Iran conflict, helping risk flows to return. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) left the key Loan Prime Rates unchanged, although failed to deter the risk-on market mood.

Gold price moves further away from the record highs of $2,432 even though the US Dollar stays defensive on risk appetite. The reduction in the demand for another safe-haven asset, the US Treasury bonds, fuels a fresh upswing in the US Treasury bond yields, accentuating the corrective decline in Gold price.

Later in the day, if the US Dollar finds renewed demand, courtesy of firmer US Treasury bond yields, Gold price pullback could gain momentum. The US economic calendar is devoid of any top-tier data releases on Monday, and hence, risk sentiment and the US Dollar dynamics will continue to influence the Gold price action.

Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) entered its ‘blackout period’ on Saturday, ahead of the May 1 policy announcements. Geopolitical developments will also draw investors’ attention.

Gold price technical analysis: Four-hour chart

As observed on the four-hour chart, Gold price has pierced through the 21-Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2,382 to challenge the next key support at $2,370 – the 50-day SMA.

A four-hourly candlestick closing below the latter could initiate a fresh downtrend toward the 100-SMA at $2,325. At that level, the April 15 low concurs.

However, Gold sellers need to crack the $2,350 psychological level beforehand.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a leading indicator, has entered the negative territory to hover near 48.00, justifying the bearish potential.

On the flip side, Gold price could face the initial hurlde at the 21-SMA at $2,382 (previous support now resistance) on the road to recovery. Further up, the $24,00 round level will be challenged.

Acceptance above the latter will fuel a fresh upswing for a test of Friday’s high of $2,418. Further up, the lifetime highs of $2,432 will come into play.

 

• Gold price extends pullback as Middle East fears calm down.
• US Dollar weakens amid upbeat mood, despite rebounding US Treasury bond yields.
• Gold price targets $2,350 on a sustained break below 50-SMA at $2,370 on the 4H chart.

Gold price has returned to the red in Monday’s Asian trading, snapping two back-to-back days of gains. The extended Gold price pullback could be attrbuted to a renewed uptick in the US Treasury bond yields, as markets calm down after no further geopolitical escalation in the Middle East over the weekend.  

Focus shifts to top-tier US events this week

Reports on early Friday that Israeli missiles struck a site in Iran, per ABC News, citing a US official, triggered broad risk-aversion. However, no official comments from Israel confirming the same and denial by Iranian authorities turned markets into a risk reset mode.

Gold price initially spiked up to near $2,420 on mounting geopolitical risks but pulled back to settle below the $2,400 threshold, as risk sentiment recovered. The sharp turn around in the US Dollar and the US Treasury bond yields also contributed to the retracement in Gold price last Friday.

In Monday’s trading so far, investors are breathing a sigh of relief amid a likely thaw in the Israel-Iran conflict, helping risk flows to return. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) left the key Loan Prime Rates unchanged, although failed to deter the risk-on market mood.

Gold price moves further away from the record highs of $2,432 even though the US Dollar stays defensive on risk appetite. The reduction in the demand for another safe-haven asset, the US Treasury bonds, fuels a fresh upswing in the US Treasury bond yields, accentuating the corrective decline in Gold price.

Later in the day, if the US Dollar finds renewed demand, courtesy of firmer US Treasury bond yields, Gold price pullback could gain momentum. The US economic calendar is devoid of any top-tier data releases on Monday, and hence, risk sentiment and the US Dollar dynamics will continue to influence the Gold price action.

Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) entered its ‘blackout period’ on Saturday, ahead of the May 1 policy announcements. Geopolitical developments will also draw investors’ attention.

Gold price technical analysis: Four-hour chart

As observed on the four-hour chart, Gold price has pierced through the 21-Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2,382 to challenge the next key support at $2,370 – the 50-day SMA.

A four-hourly candlestick closing below the latter could initiate a fresh downtrend toward the 100-SMA at $2,325. At that level, the April 15 low concurs.

However, Gold sellers need to crack the $2,350 psychological level beforehand.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a leading indicator, has entered the negative territory to hover near 48.00, justifying the bearish potential.

On the flip side, Gold price could face the initial hurlde at the 21-SMA at $2,382 (previous support now resistance) on the road to recovery. Further up, the $24,00 round level will be challenged.

Acceptance above the latter will fuel a fresh upswing for a test of Friday’s high of $2,418. Further up, the lifetime highs of $2,432 will come into play.

 

Copper prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) saw upward momentum in the first quarter of the year on the back of tightening supply and increasing demand from the energy transition.

After bottoming out at US$7,800 per metric ton (MT) in the fall of 2023, copper prices bounced back to start 2024 in higher territory, but elevated supply kept the red metal trading in the US$8,000 to US$8,500 range until mid-March.

Since then, copper has seen strong gains, reaching a quarterly high of US$8,973 on March 18. With increasing market volatility since the start of April, prices continued trending up to reach US$9,365 on April 10.

---

First Quantum not giving up on Cobre Panama

The event that has had the biggest impact on copper supply recently is the closure of the Cobre Panama mine in Q4 2023. The mine’s annual output of 331,000 MT of copper accounted for 1 percent of global production — a significant number for an industry set to face increasing demand and a lack of incoming new supply.

Cobre Panama became a contentious issue during the year as First Quantum and the government of Panama renegotiated a company-friendly contract that dated back to 1997. Panama ultimately approved a new deal in October 2023 that guaranteed the country would receive at least US$375 million annually from First Quantum, and the company received a 20 year extension to continue operations at the mine.

However, public sentiment deteriorated after the approval, leading to protests. The deal was ultimately overturned by the Supreme Court and Panamanian President Laurentino Cortizo ordered the mine to close.

First Quantum announced in December 2023 that it had launched international arbitration proceedings to challenge the court’s ruling, but so far no date has been set for the commencement of talks.

Panama will be holding elections in May as Cortizo completes his second and final term, meaning the country will soon have a new administration. Mazumdar told INN that First Quantum intends to negotiate with the incoming administration in the hopes of striking a deal that is favorable to both parties.

“The current president will not stand in the next election in May 2024; therefore First Quantum plans on working with whomever is elected to try and restart the mine and avoid the arbitration. Cobre Panama represents about 5 percent of the GDP of Panama and employs 30,000 to 40,000 people directly and indirectly,” he said.

Governments recognize copper’s critical status

In 2022, the US government established the Minerals Security Partnership (MSP), which is now made up of 14 countries, including the US, Canada, Australia, Estonia, Japan, South Korea and Sweden, as well as the EU.

Among its goals is advancing critical minerals projects that meet ESG standards.

In February, the MSP announced the signing of a memorandum of understanding between Gecamines, the Democratic Republic of Congo’s state-run mining company, and the Japan Organization for Metals and Energy Security. The deal will create a framework for the two to coordinate and cooperate in mineral exploration, development and production in the Lobito Corridor, where Gecamines currently oversees the production of 1.5 million MT of copper cathode.

This past March the MSP held a forum on the sidelines of the Prospectors & Developers Association of Canada convention to discuss matters around mineral security with a focus on shoring up the supply of commodities that are critical to the energy transition, including copper, and to advance the development of domestic supply chains.

At the meeting, the group confirmed it was working on 23 projects covering a breadth of minerals critical to the energy transition, including copper. Sixteen of the projects involve upstream mining and mineral extraction, while seven center around midstream processing and another seven focus on recycling and recovering. As for location, six are in the Americas, five are in Europe, 13 are in Africa and three are in the Asia-Pacific region.

This work comes amid increasing geopolitical tensions between the US and China over key issues, including the latter’s increasing buildout of mining assets in Africa. Russia’s war with Ukraine has also caused a tricky landscape.

For its part, the US is encouraging manufacturers to use minerals from nations with which it has free-trade agreements, like those in the MSP, as part of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which was introduced in 2022.

Ultimately, the goal of the MSP, the IRA and other regional programs is to help accelerate critical minerals projects by working with government and industry to help secure funding, provide diplomatic support and diversify supply chains.

Investor takeaway

Copper’s supply stresses look likely to continue in 2024 and beyond due to a lack of new supply in the pipeline, and slow permitting times for assets that are underway. At the same time, the red metal is expected to see higher demand from renewable electricity generation, electric vehicle production and increasing infrastructure needs.

However, now that more governments are labeling copper a critical mineral, there’s hope that bottlenecks in supply may lessen and new projects may be able to make progress. Overall, a landscape is emerging that could benefit investors who are looking for long-term plays in an industry facing immense supply-side constraints in the coming years.

Still, given the challenges in discovery, permitting and approval, investors should do their due diligence, researching all aspects of a company, including its biggest projects and the risks associated with them.

Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time news updates!

Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

Editorial Disclosure: The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.

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