However, Iran’s efforts to avoid further escalation could alleviate immediate concerns about major conflicts, potentially bolstering market sentiment. Consequently, this improvement in risk sentiment may exert negative pressure on safe-haven assets like silver (XAG/USD), as investors pivot towards riskier alternatives, diminishing demand for safe-haven options.

Market participants are closely monitoring geopolitical developments in the Middle East, recognizing their significant influence on market sentiment and commodity prices.

Speculations on Federal Reserve’s Rate Policy and Its Impact on Silver Price (XAG/USD)

Expectations of a delay in anticipated rate cuts have emerged, with the first cut now anticipated in September rather than June. This shift in expectations is driven by concerns regarding persistent inflation and a robust US economy. The anticipation of prolonged higher interest rates has implications for precious metal prices, including Silver.

Higher interest rates typically strengthen the US dollar, rendering dollar-denominated commodities like Silver relatively more expensive for investors using other currencies. Consequently, this scenario may constrain the upside potential for Silver prices in the immediate future.

Impact of Upbeat US Retail Sales Data on Silver Price (XAG/USD)

 

The Silver price (XAG/USD) has been impacted by the release of upbeat US Retail Sales data for March. The data, reported by the US Census Bureau, revealed a 0.7% month-on-month (MoM) increase, surpassing expectations of a 0.3% rise. This robust growth, exceeding the previous month’s revised figure of 0.9%, reflects strong consumer spending and hints at potential inflationary pressures ahead.

XAU/USD Current price: $2,341.03

• The yield on the 10-year Treasury note hit its highest since mid-2023.
• Tensions between Israel and Iran undermine the market mood.
• XAU/USD consolidates around its daily opening, may extend its corrective slide.

Gold consolidates around $2,350 a troy ounce on Monday, struggling to find directional strength in a risk-averse environment. XAU/USD hit an all-time high of $2,431.43 on Friday but closed the day in the red amid continued US Dollar demand combined with profit-taking ahead of the weekly close.

Weekend news kept concerns alive as Iran launched a massive attack on Israel, spurring fears of an Israeli retaliation. Western allies called for the latter to avoid escalating the conflict, but it’s unclear what Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could do next. Netanyahu is discussing with its cabinet whether or not they will hit back at Iran. Tensions affected Oil prices the most but also backed demand for the Greenback.

The US Dollar is also benefiting from running Treasury yields. The 10-year note currently offers 4.64%, up 13 basis points (bps) and its highest since June 2023. The 2-year note yields 4.94%, up modest 6 bps. Meanwhile, Wall Street battles to reverse Friday’s losses, with the three major indexes trading mixed.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The daily chart for the XAU/USD pair shows it may extend its corrective slide. The pair posted a lower low and lower high but remains above all its moving averages, with a firmly bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) providing dynamic support at around $2,259.00. Technical indicators, in the meantime, retreated from their recent highs but remain within overbought readings.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the risk of a downward extension has increased. A flat 20 SMA caps advances at around $2,356.00, while the longer moving averages are partially losing their upward momentum. The Momentum indicator stands just above its 100 level trying to resume its advance, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator gains downward traction around 49. The bearish case will be stronger if XAU/USD breaks through $2,319.20, a strong support level.

Support levels: 2,333.80. 2,319.20 2,303.80  

Resistance levels: 2,356.10 2,365.25 2,380.00  

XAU/USD Current price: $2,341.03

• The yield on the 10-year Treasury note hit its highest since mid-2023.
• Tensions between Israel and Iran undermine the market mood.
• XAU/USD consolidates around its daily opening, may extend its corrective slide.

Gold consolidates around $2,350 a troy ounce on Monday, struggling to find directional strength in a risk-averse environment. XAU/USD hit an all-time high of $2,431.43 on Friday but closed the day in the red amid continued US Dollar demand combined with profit-taking ahead of the weekly close.

Weekend news kept concerns alive as Iran launched a massive attack on Israel, spurring fears of an Israeli retaliation. Western allies called for the latter to avoid escalating the conflict, but it’s unclear what Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could do next. Netanyahu is discussing with its cabinet whether or not they will hit back at Iran. Tensions affected Oil prices the most but also backed demand for the Greenback.

The US Dollar is also benefiting from running Treasury yields. The 10-year note currently offers 4.64%, up 13 basis points (bps) and its highest since June 2023. The 2-year note yields 4.94%, up modest 6 bps. Meanwhile, Wall Street battles to reverse Friday’s losses, with the three major indexes trading mixed.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The daily chart for the XAU/USD pair shows it may extend its corrective slide. The pair posted a lower low and lower high but remains above all its moving averages, with a firmly bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) providing dynamic support at around $2,259.00. Technical indicators, in the meantime, retreated from their recent highs but remain within overbought readings.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the risk of a downward extension has increased. A flat 20 SMA caps advances at around $2,356.00, while the longer moving averages are partially losing their upward momentum. The Momentum indicator stands just above its 100 level trying to resume its advance, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator gains downward traction around 49. The bearish case will be stronger if XAU/USD breaks through $2,319.20, a strong support level.

Support levels: 2,333.80. 2,319.20 2,303.80  

Resistance levels: 2,356.10 2,365.25 2,380.00  

Recent Signs of Strength Hit with Resistance

Recent attempts to strengthen the price of natural gas have been met with failures. Last week’s swing high of 1.94 completed a lower swing high, relative to the higher March 1 swing high. Further, recent strength was met resistance below lower blue dashed parallel channel line. In other words, the dashed line represents potential resistance, and evidence for resistance was seen. Such behavior reflects continued downward pressure on the price of natural gas, which was confirmed with today’s breakdown.

Moving Average Support Zone Fails

Notice that the downtrend line, orange 50-Day MA, and purple 20-Day MA had all converged around the same potential support zone. There was a clear chance for the zone to reject price to the upside and it has failed to materialize. Instead, a bearish breakdown has been triggered, putting short-term price action in alignment with the larger bearish trend. A breakdown from consolidation is first indicated on a drop below the lower boundary line, but more so on a decline below the most recent swing low at 1.59.

Range Bound Until Pennant Breakout

Regardless of the bearish nature of the pennant pattern, it won’t matter much until there is a breakout of the pattern. Choppy range bound trading is likely for the time being if the pennant continues to evolve. Certainly, the pattern could evolve for a while longer with trading contained within its boundaries. Therefore, a bounce off the lower boundary line could eventually lead to a test of resistance at the top line of the pattern. At that point, a bullish reversal may also be a possibility. Given recent history, an upside breakout would be triggered on a rally above the most recent seeing high at 1.94.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) raised its West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price forecast for 2024 and 2025 in its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released last week.

The EIA now sees the WTI spot price averaging $83.78 per barrel this year and $82.48 per barrel next year, according to the report, which projected that the commodity will average $85.30 per barrel in the second quarter of 2024, $86.84 per barrel in the third quarter, and $85.17 per barrel in the fourth quarter. In the first quarter of this year, the WTI spot price averaged $77.50 per barrel, the STEO showed.

In 2025, the EIA expects the WTI spot price to average $83.84 per barrel in the first quarter, $82.50 per barrel across the second and third quarters, and $81.16 per barrel in the fourth quarter, according to the STEO.

The EIA forecast in its previous March STEO that the WTI spot price would average $77.08 per barrel in the first quarter of 2024, $83.80 per barrel in the second quarter, $84.50 per barrel in the third quarter, $83.50 per barrel in the fourth quarter, and $82.15 per barrel overall in 2024.

That STEO showed that the EIA expected the WTI spot price to come in at $82.84 per barrel in the first quarter of 2025, $81.50 per barrel in the second quarter, $79.50 per barrel in the third quarter, $77.50 per barrel in the fourth quarter, and $80.30 per barrel overall in 2025.

In a research note sent to Rigzone last Monday, J.P Morgan projected that the WTI crude price will average $79 per barrel in 2024 and $71 per barrel in 2025. In that note, J.P. Morgan forecast that the commodity will average $75 per barrel in the first quarter of 2024, $80 per barrel across the second and third quarters, $81 per barrel in the fourth quarter, $78 per barrel in the first quarter of next year, $73 per barrel in the second quarter, $69 per barrel in the third quarter, and $65 per barrel in the fourth quarter.

In a report sent to Rigzone last Tuesday, Standard Chartered forecast that the NYMEX WTI basis nearby future price will average $91 per barrel in the second quarter of 2024, $95 per barrel in the third quarter, $103 per barrel in the fourth quarter, $104 per barrel in the first quarter of 2025, $100 per barrel in the second quarter, and $108 per barrel in the third quarter.

Standard Chartered projected in that report that the commodity will average $106 per barrel overall in 2025, $125 per barrel overall in 2026, and $112 per barrel overall in 2027.

In a report sent to Rigzone at the start of the month, BofA Global Research revealed that it had increased its 2024 WTI price forecast to $81 per barrel.

BMI, a Fitch Solutions company, projected in a report sent to Rigzone at the end of March that the WTI crude price will average $82 per barrel in 2024 and $81 per barrel in 2025.

Also last month, executives from oil and gas firms revealed where they expected the WTI crude oil price to be at various points in the future as part of the first quarter Dallas Fed Energy Survey.

The survey showed that the average response executives from 145 oil and gas firms gave when asked what they expect the WTI crude oil price to be at the end of 2024 was $80.11 per barrel. The low forecast in the survey was $70 per barrel, the high forecast was $120 per barrel, and the WTI price during the survey was $82.52 per barrel, the survey highlighted.

The latest Dallas Fed Energy Survey also asked participants where they expect WTI prices to be in six months, one year, two years, and five years. Executives from 135 oil and gas firms answered this question and gave a mean response of $79 per barrel for the six month mark, $81 per barrel for the year mark, $83 per barrel for the two year mark, and $90 per barrel for the five year mark.

To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com

• Gold price jumps on a flight to safety after Iran attacked Israel late Saturday.
• US Dollar fails to benefit from geopolitical turmoil and higher US Treasury bond yields.
• Gold price looks north alongside 4H RSI ahead of US Retail Sales data.

Gold price is consolidating its rebound above $2,350 early Monday, reversing half the corrective decline from record highs of $$2,432 seen on Friday.

Gold price gains on flight to safety

Despite a recovery in Asian markets, led by the rally in Chinese stocks, investors remain in a wait-and-see mode before placing fresh bets on risky assets following late Saturday’s escalation in the Middle East geopolitical tensions.

Iran’s retaliatory drone attacks on Israel on Saturday spooked markets and rekindled the safety appeal of Gold price, as investors stay fearful of whether Iran’s unprecedented strike on Israel could fuel a wider regional conflict.

Gold price is also benefiting from a broadly weaker US Dollar (USD), as the Greenback pays little heed to the cautious market environment. Market participants likely believe that the recent upsurge in the US Dollar is excessive, and hence, they avoid creating fresh positions in the US currency even though US Treasury bond yields look to extend Friday’s positive momentum.

US Treasury bond yields keep up recent gains due to the pushback in expectations of the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest cut from June to September, courtesy of elevated inflation level and a resilient US economy. The further upside in the Gold price, therefore, appears elusive on firmer US Treasury bond yields.

However, if risk sentiment sees a dramatic positive shift, it could trigger a fresh selling wave in Gold price. Traders are taking account of the UK, France and Egypt condemning Iran’s action while Saudi Arabia has called for restraint, calming markets somewhat so far this Monday. The S&P 500 futures are up 0.25% on the day, reflecting the renewed market optimism.

All eyes now remain on the geopolitical developments in the Middle East for fresh trading impetus in Gold price. If the Middle East turmoil worsens, Gold price could see an extension of the rebound toward $2,400. But a resurgent demand for the US Dollar on increased safe-haven flows and hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations could act as a headwind to the Gold price upswing.

The top-tier US Retail Sales data due later on Monday could also have a significant impact on the value of the US Dollar and, in turn, on the USD-denominated Gold price.

with the monthly headline figure to increase by 0.3% in March, slower than February’s 0.6% rise.

Gold price technical analysis: Four-hour chart

As observed on the four-hour chart, Gold price is defending the 21-Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2,356, at the moment.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has recpatured the 50 level, now holding near 53.0, suggesting that the upside bias appears intact.

Initial topside target is seen the intraday highs of $2,373, above which the $2,400 round figure will be tested again.

Acceptance above the latter will expose the record high of $2,432.

If the Gold price fails to hold above the 21-SMA at $2,356 on a four-hour candlestick closing basis, the correction could resume toward the previous day’s low of $2,334. The 50-SMA aligns near that level.

Further down, the previous week’s low of $2,319 will come into play.

 

• Gold price jumps on a flight to safety after Iran attacked Israel late Saturday.
• US Dollar fails to benefit from geopolitical turmoil and higher US Treasury bond yields.
• Gold price looks north alongside 4H RSI ahead of US Retail Sales data.

Gold price is consolidating its rebound above $2,350 early Monday, reversing half the corrective decline from record highs of $$2,432 seen on Friday.

Gold price gains on flight to safety

Despite a recovery in Asian markets, led by the rally in Chinese stocks, investors remain in a wait-and-see mode before placing fresh bets on risky assets following late Saturday’s escalation in the Middle East geopolitical tensions.

Iran’s retaliatory drone attacks on Israel on Saturday spooked markets and rekindled the safety appeal of Gold price, as investors stay fearful of whether Iran’s unprecedented strike on Israel could fuel a wider regional conflict.

Gold price is also benefiting from a broadly weaker US Dollar (USD), as the Greenback pays little heed to the cautious market environment. Market participants likely believe that the recent upsurge in the US Dollar is excessive, and hence, they avoid creating fresh positions in the US currency even though US Treasury bond yields look to extend Friday’s positive momentum.

US Treasury bond yields keep up recent gains due to the pushback in expectations of the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest cut from June to September, courtesy of elevated inflation level and a resilient US economy. The further upside in the Gold price, therefore, appears elusive on firmer US Treasury bond yields.

However, if risk sentiment sees a dramatic positive shift, it could trigger a fresh selling wave in Gold price. Traders are taking account of the UK, France and Egypt condemning Iran’s action while Saudi Arabia has called for restraint, calming markets somewhat so far this Monday. The S&P 500 futures are up 0.25% on the day, reflecting the renewed market optimism.

All eyes now remain on the geopolitical developments in the Middle East for fresh trading impetus in Gold price. If the Middle East turmoil worsens, Gold price could see an extension of the rebound toward $2,400. But a resurgent demand for the US Dollar on increased safe-haven flows and hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations could act as a headwind to the Gold price upswing.

The top-tier US Retail Sales data due later on Monday could also have a significant impact on the value of the US Dollar and, in turn, on the USD-denominated Gold price.

with the monthly headline figure to increase by 0.3% in March, slower than February’s 0.6% rise.

Gold price technical analysis: Four-hour chart

As observed on the four-hour chart, Gold price is defending the 21-Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2,356, at the moment.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has recpatured the 50 level, now holding near 53.0, suggesting that the upside bias appears intact.

Initial topside target is seen the intraday highs of $2,373, above which the $2,400 round figure will be tested again.

Acceptance above the latter will expose the record high of $2,432.

If the Gold price fails to hold above the 21-SMA at $2,356 on a four-hour candlestick closing basis, the correction could resume toward the previous day’s low of $2,334. The 50-SMA aligns near that level.

Further down, the previous week’s low of $2,319 will come into play.

 

• Gold price jumps on a flight to safety after Iran attacked Israel late Saturday.
• US Dollar fails to benefit from geopolitical turmoil and higher US Treasury bond yields.
• Gold price looks north alongside 4H RSI ahead of US Retail Sales data.

Gold price is consolidating its rebound above $2,350 early Monday, reversing half the corrective decline from record highs of $$2,432 seen on Friday.

Gold price gains on flight to safety

Despite a recovery in Asian markets, led by the rally in Chinese stocks, investors remain in a wait-and-see mode before placing fresh bets on risky assets following late Saturday’s escalation in the Middle East geopolitical tensions.

Iran’s retaliatory drone attacks on Israel on Saturday spooked markets and rekindled the safety appeal of Gold price, as investors stay fearful of whether Iran’s unprecedented strike on Israel could fuel a wider regional conflict.

Gold price is also benefiting from a broadly weaker US Dollar (USD), as the Greenback pays little heed to the cautious market environment. Market participants likely believe that the recent upsurge in the US Dollar is excessive, and hence, they avoid creating fresh positions in the US currency even though US Treasury bond yields look to extend Friday’s positive momentum.

US Treasury bond yields keep up recent gains due to the pushback in expectations of the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest cut from June to September, courtesy of elevated inflation level and a resilient US economy. The further upside in the Gold price, therefore, appears elusive on firmer US Treasury bond yields.

However, if risk sentiment sees a dramatic positive shift, it could trigger a fresh selling wave in Gold price. Traders are taking account of the UK, France and Egypt condemning Iran’s action while Saudi Arabia has called for restraint, calming markets somewhat so far this Monday. The S&P 500 futures are up 0.25% on the day, reflecting the renewed market optimism.

All eyes now remain on the geopolitical developments in the Middle East for fresh trading impetus in Gold price. If the Middle East turmoil worsens, Gold price could see an extension of the rebound toward $2,400. But a resurgent demand for the US Dollar on increased safe-haven flows and hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations could act as a headwind to the Gold price upswing.

The top-tier US Retail Sales data due later on Monday could also have a significant impact on the value of the US Dollar and, in turn, on the USD-denominated Gold price.

with the monthly headline figure to increase by 0.3% in March, slower than February’s 0.6% rise.

Gold price technical analysis: Four-hour chart

As observed on the four-hour chart, Gold price is defending the 21-Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2,356, at the moment.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has recpatured the 50 level, now holding near 53.0, suggesting that the upside bias appears intact.

Initial topside target is seen the intraday highs of $2,373, above which the $2,400 round figure will be tested again.

Acceptance above the latter will expose the record high of $2,432.

If the Gold price fails to hold above the 21-SMA at $2,356 on a four-hour candlestick closing basis, the correction could resume toward the previous day’s low of $2,334. The 50-SMA aligns near that level.

Further down, the previous week’s low of $2,319 will come into play.

 

Natural Gas Price Forecast Video for 17.02.23

Natural Gas Technical Analysis

Natural gas markets have rallied a bit during the trading session on Thursday as we continue to hang around the $2.50 level. The $2.50 level is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and an area where we’ve seen a lot of noise in the past. Whether or not it holds remains to be seen, but it certainly looks as if we are trying to get into some type of basing pattern. That being said, we don’t have the volume, nor do we have the explosive move to the upside showing signs of the reversal.

That reversal could be a short-term buying opportunity, but I don’t necessarily think it’s going to be a scenario where you can hang onto that trade. I think it would be a bear market rally, but it would also be a nice shorting opportunity for swing traders like myself. Any signs of exhaustion near the 50-Day EMA, or the $4.00 level will be jumped on, and I will not hesitate to start shorting.

On the other hand, if we break down below the bottom of the range, then it’s likely that we could go to the $2.00 level. The market will continue to see a lot of volatility, but I also think that given enough time it’s likely that we will see a turnaround, if for no other reason than just simply people collecting profits after shorting this monster moved to the downside. Ultimately, the market continues to be very quiet at the moment, so unless you are short-term scalper, there isn’t a whole lot to do in this type of environment. However, this could be the beginning of the market trying to find its way back to higher levels.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

This article was originally posted on FX Empire

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FXEmpire.com – Natural gas dipped briefly below the minor 1.75 swing low from Monday before finding support at 1.73 and stalling the descent. Volatility diminished as it is on track to complete a narrow range day while further testing support around the long-term downtrend line and 20-Day MA, now at 1.76. If natural gas can advance above today’s high of 1.785 heading into next it has a chance to progress the near-term uptrend that starts from the higher swing low and potential second bottom (C).

Drop Below Today’s Low Points to Lower Triangle Line

However, a drop below today’s low without a quick recovery increases the chance that natural gas will further trace out a developing symmetrical triangle (purple). A drop below today’s low increases the chance of a test of support at the lower boundary line of the triangle. Recent minor signs of strength seen recently as natural gas recaptured both the 20-Day and 50-Day MAs would then be negated.

Rally Above 1.785 Would Be First Sign of Strengthening

Nevertheless, if natural gas can continue to find support around the downtrend line and 20-Day MA, followed by signs of strength, it will likely have completed a minor pullback. The chance for an eventual bull trend continuation will then become more likely. A rally above today’s high of 1.785 will provide an initial signal, but upside follow through will be key as to whether it can keep rising from there.

Weekly Chart Analysis

On a weekly basis, natural gas is on track to close weak, in the lower third of the week’s range and possibly with a doji. The weekly candle will be bearish unless natural gas can rise before today’s close. Last week also ended relatively weak. This week will be the second in a row where natural gas is closing in the lower area of the week’s range. In both cases support for the week was seen in the 8-Week MA.

Natural gas has been mostly below the 8-Week line since early-January. So, a successful test of support at the 8-Week line is one sign of strength. Regardless, the weekly performance did not confirm strength since this week and last week ended (likely) in the lower part of the range. Therefore, a drop below today’s low would also give a weekly bearish signal relative to this week’s low and the 8-Week MA.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

This article was originally posted on FX Empire

More From FXEMPIRE:

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Oil prices rose around one per cent in the previous session on geopolitical tensions in the Middle East but posted a weekly loss over a bearish world oil demand growth forecast from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and worries about delayed US interest rate cuts after hotter-than-expected inflation.

Brent crude futures settled up 71 cents at $90.45 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose 64 cents to $85.66. For the week, Brent declined 0.8 per cent, while WTI dropped more than one per cent. Coming to domestic prices, crude oil futures settled 0.04 per cent higher at ₹7,190 after hitting an intra day high of ₹7,322 on the multi commodity exchange.

Also Read: US inflation beats Wall Street estimates, rises 0.4% in March; Fed’s June rate cut hopes fade away

What’s driving crude oil prices?

-The IEA cut its forecast for 2024 world oil demand growth to 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd). The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said on Thursday that the world oil demand will rise by 2.25 million bpd in 2024. Analysts said that for now the market is mostly in the OPEC demand camp as opposed to the IEA’s reduced forecast.

-During the week, oil prices neared a six-month high on concern that Iran, the third-largest OPEC producer, might retaliate for a suspected Israeli warplane attack on Iran’s embassy in Damascus.

-Analysts noted that the market’s main focus is on whether Iran will retaliate against Israel, with the fear of supply disruption associated with the events in the Middle East supporting prices. The US expects an attack by Iran against Israel but one that would not be big enough to draw itself into war. Tehran has signaled a response aimed at avoiding major escalation.

-Supply chain issues still carry the biggest risk premium as Iran maintains its threat to shut the Suez Canal, said economist at Matador Economics. Friday’s gains erased the previous session’s losses, which were dominated by stubborn US inflation that dampened hopes for an interest rate cut as early as June.

-Higher interest rates can weaken economic growth and depress oil demand. US energy firms this week cut the number of oil rigs operating for a fourth week in a row, energy services firm Baker Hughes said in its report. The oil and gas rig count, an early indicator of future output, fell by three to 617 in the week to April 12, the lowest since November.

Also Read: Oil traders stay bullish as Brent hovers at $90: ‘Crude to stay elevated even if Middle-East tensions cool down’

Where are prices headed?

Oil market analysts said that the weekly decline is attributed to a buildup in US crude oil inventories, which rose to 5.84 million barrels last week, the highest level since July 2023, raising concerns about demand.

The IEA has lowered its demand forecast due to sluggish economic growth and rising electric vehicle (EV) demand, trimming estimates by 0.13 mbpd to 1.2 mbpd—one million barrels per day less than OPEC’s expectations.

‘’The IEA predicts a significant supply buffer of six mbpd, driven by robust non-OPEC supply and slowing demand. However, near-term geopolitical risks, such as the potential for Iran to launch missiles on Israel, could provide a downside cushion to crude oil prices, with WTI crude oil prices projected to reach warningly high levels of $87-$89,” said Riya Singh – Research Analyst, Commodities and Currency Desk, Emkay Global.

Also Read: Expert View | Oil market oversupplied with high US output, Brent seen at $87-$92 for 2024: ShareKhan’s Mohammed Imran

The dollar index breached the 105 threshold, exerting pressure on crude oil prices. Escalating tensions in the Middle East following Iran’s threat to retaliate against Israel could provide some support to crude oil prices at lower levels, added analysts.

‘’With global supply already constrained due to OPEC+ output cuts, this geopolitical tension could further bolster prices. Support for crude oil stands at $84.50–83.90, with resistance projected at $85.90-86.60. In Indian Rupees, crude oil is supported at Rs7,020-6,930, while resistance lies at Rs7,190-7,280,” said Rahul Kalantri, VP Commodities, Mehta Equities Ltd.

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

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The Vietnam Coffee Cocoa Association (VICOFA) predicted that prices of coffee in the country will keep increasing because coffee prices in the world have constantly fluctuated.

However, VICOFA said that it is difficult to say how much the specific increase will be.

SGGP newspaper on April 2 published an article that increased raw coffee prices delight farmers, yet cause unease among businesses. On April 6, SGGP Newspaper reported that coffee prices in the Central Highlands region had exceeded VND100,000 a kg and coffee prices in many places kept increasing by VND3,000 a kg on April 7.

The Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (VICOFA) said that the general trend is that domestic coffee prices are still increasing due to the direct impact of constantly fluctuating world coffee prices; yet, the association can’t forecast the specific increase level.

According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, Vietnam is the second largest supplier of coffee output in the world after Brazil. According to estimates, prolonged drought and heat will reduce output by about 20 percent in the Southeast and Central Highlands regions.

Purchasers and processing coffee exporters said that if the prices of raw coffee continue to increase and are as difficult to forecast as they are currently, it will continue to affect production and business activities. As a consequence, many businesses dare not to sign stable export contracts with partners but only spot contracts – buying or selling coffee for immediate settlement (payment and delivery) on the spot date.

Economic experts also warn that rising coffee prices will be very beneficial for farmers.

However, increasing prices will show signs of virtual increases resulting in some instability in the domestic market because establishments holding large amounts of coffee stop selling or they are hoarding goods to wait for new prices, which can lead to a frozen market or slow transactions.

The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development further informed that this year’s coffee crop will not be harvested until around October. To ensure stable productivity and the output of raw material, the Department of Crop Production under the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development has sent a document to localities requesting to assess the current production – consumption situation as well as the weather to continue to monitor developments and provide forecasts so that responsible agencies can give early guidance.

According to Director Nguyen Nhu Cuong of the Department of Crop Production’s preliminary assessment, this year’s productivity and output of the coffee crop in the country only reduced due to drought. In the immediate future, the Department of Crop Production continues to ask localities to guide people in implementing preventative measures to cope with drought early and work to have enough water for irrigation.

By Phuc Hau – Translated by Anh Quan