The GBPJPY pair benefited from providing bullish momentum by the main indicators, especially with stochastic reach towards 80 level, forming a strong bullish rally to surpass the barrier at 213.00, to settle above the bullish channel’s support at 213.55 level, to target some extra gains by reaching 214.30.

 

The stability above the bullish channel’s support will provide strong chance of recording extra gains; to expect to form initial target at 214.90 level and surpassing it might extend the trading in the near period towards 215.55 and 216.35.

 

The expected trading range for today is between 213.80 and 214.90

 

Trend forecast: Bullish

New York, February 3, 2026, 13:52 EST — Regular session underway.

• Natural gas prices held steady following a steep fall in the previous session, as traders adjusted their bets on weather risk.
• Gas-linked stocks and funds followed the rebound, though the market remained uneasy over supply and demand cues.
• LNG export headlines and the upcoming U.S. storage report will set the near-term tone.

U.S. natural gas prices climbed Tuesday, with shares of the United States Natural Gas Fund edging higher after a sharp drop the day before linked to warmer forecast updates. March Henry Hub futures gained about 2.6%, settling near $3.32 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). UNG shares rose 1.1% to $12.84 in afternoon trading. EQT Corporation and Cheniere Energy each added roughly 0.7%. (Barchart)

This shift is crucial as the gas market struggles to stabilize following a period of sharp, volatile moves. Weather models have regained their role as the key driver, and the tape remains unforgiving.

A Reuters report on Monday highlighted that rising output and demand are expected to ease later in February, despite the country facing another cold snap. LSEG put Lower 48 production at 106.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in early February, while projecting total demand—including exports—to drop from 159.3 bcfd this week to 147.1 bcfd next week. It also flagged near-record 30-day close-to-close volatility and noted Waha Hub cash prices slipping below zero again amid pipeline bottlenecks in the Permian Basin. (BOE Report)

Fuel challenges remained in the spotlight in the power market. PJM Interconnection projected generation outages of 25.72 gigawatts for Tuesday, rising sharply from Monday’s 19.96 GW. At the same time, eastern gas prices in Pennsylvania dropped to $3.79 per mmBtu for Tuesday delivery, down from $5.69 on Monday, according to Reuters. (Reuters)

Liquefied natural gas — LNG, chilled for shipment — has shifted recently. A January freeze knocked U.S. LNG exports down to 11.3 million metric tons from December’s 11.5 million, Reuters reported. This came after Freeport LNG partly went offline and Kinder Morgan’s Elba Island LNG terminal stopped taking feedgas, tapping rare cargoes from Trinidad and Tobago. (Reuters)

Commonwealth LNG announced Tuesday it signed a 20-year deal to deliver 1 million tonnes per year of LNG to Mercuria Energy Trading S.A., paired with a matching gas supply agreement. “These agreements mark a significant strategic partnership,” said David Lawler. Brian Falik added the deal aligns with Mercuria’s drive for “long-term, reliable LNG supply.” (PR Newswire)

The longer-term narrative centers on demand driven by export projects. Yet, in the near term, the market’s focused on the upcoming forecast update, the next production figures, and if LNG feedgas can withstand colder weather pressures.

The downside risk is straightforward. Should forecasts stay mild and output rebound fully, storage draws might ease, cash prices could weaken, and futures might lose their recent gains. But a new round of freeze-offs would change the game in an instant—the price moves have already proven how quickly that can happen.

Coming up next is the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly natural gas storage report, set for February 5, 2026. This report tends to shake up prices whenever the data catches the market off guard. (Eia)

Copper price activated with the temporary negative pressures yesterday, forming more corrective waves, hitting the previously waited target at $5.5100, facing an important support to bounce higher towards $5.8500.

 

The stability above $5.5100 level confirms the continuation of the bullish scenario, therefore, we will keep waiting for gathering extra bullish momentum, to ease the mission of its rally towards $59700, to press on the resistance at $6.2000.

 

The expected trading range for today is between $5.7100 and $6.0000

 

Trend forecast: Bullish

 

 

 

Coffee prices suffered strong negative pressures in its last trading, which forces it to settle again below %50 Fibonacci correction level 360.00, to notice big losses by its decline towards 330.00 support.

 

Reminding you that the continuation of providing negative momentum by the main indicators will increase the chances of breaking the current support, to open the way for targeting extra negative stations that might begin at 326.00 and 316.50, while regaining the bullish bias requires a new daily close above 360.00 level.

 

The expected trading range for today is between 326.00 and 342.00

 

Trend forecast: Bearish

Why are oil prices down by 5% and will it continue to fall or rise again? Oil prices dropped nearly 5% in one session after signs of easing tensions between the United States and Iran. Markets reacted to comments from President Donald Trump that Iran was in talks with Washington. These remarks reduced concerns of conflict involving an OPEC member. The fall also came as commodity markets moved lower and the US dollar gained strength. Brent crude and US crude both moved away from multi-month highs reached earlier due to geopolitical concerns.

Why are oil prices down by 5% and will it continue to fall or rise again?

Oil prices are down by 5% due to easing tensions between the United States and Iran. President Donald Trump said Iran is talking with Washington, which reduced fears of conflict involving an OPEC member. Brent and WTI crude fell from multi-month highs as traders removed the geopolitical risk premium added earlier. The fall was also linked to a broader sell-off in commodity markets, including gold and silver. A stronger US dollar added pressure, as it made dollar-priced oil costly for buyers outside the United States. OPEC+ also decided to keep output unchanged, reinforcing concerns about ample supply in the oil market.

Market reacts to US-Iran signals

Oil prices fell nearly 5% on Monday after comments suggested reduced tensions between the United States and Iran. Brent crude futures fell $3.38, or 4.9%, to $65.94 per barrel at 0528 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude dropped $3.33, or 5.1%, to $61.88 per barrel.

Prices moved lower after US President Donald Trump said Iran was “seriously talking” with Washington. The statement followed comments from Iran’s top security official Ali Larijani, who said arrangements for talks were underway. These signals lowered fears of military action involving Iran.

The oil market had priced in risks during January due to repeated warnings from Trump. He had said the US could act if Iran refused a nuclear deal or continued actions against protesters. These risks supported oil prices earlier, according to analysts.

Dollar strength and commodity sell-off

Oil prices also fell as commodity markets declined. Gold and silver saw losses during the session. Analysts linked part of the move to a stronger US dollar. When the dollar rises, oil priced in dollars becomes costly for buyers using other currencies.

Priyanka Sachdeva of Phillip Nova said the renewed strength in the US dollar added pressure on oil prices. This currency move reduced demand from non-US buyers and supported the price drop.

Why are oil prices down by 5%?

Oil prices fell by 5% mainly because of easing tensions between the United States and Iran. President Donald Trump said Iran was “seriously talking” with Washington, reducing fears of a conflict involving an OPEC member. Brent and WTI crude retreated from multi-month highs. A broader sell-off in commodities, including gold and silver, and a stronger US dollar also contributed to the decline. OPEC+ keeping output unchanged for March added to the market’s bearish sentiment, signaling that supply remains sufficient while geopolitical risk premiums eased.

Will oil prices continue to fall or rise again?

Oil prices may continue to face pressure if US-Iran talks progress and tensions stay low. Analysts say the market is well supplied, and demand remains seasonally weak. A strong US dollar could further weigh on prices. However, oil prices could rise again if talks break down, geopolitical risks return, or supply disruptions emerge. Any changes in OPEC+ policy or unexpected shifts in global demand may also impact prices. Investors are watching diplomatic updates, currency movements, and supply data closely.

OPEC+ and supply outlook

At a meeting on Sunday, OPEC+ agreed to keep oil output unchanged for March. The group had already paused planned supply increases from January through March 2026 due to lower seasonal demand.

Despite earlier gains driven by geopolitical risks, analysts say the oil market remains well supplied. Capital Economics said geopolitical risks are masking a bearish oil market. The firm noted that last year’s 12-day conflict between Israel and Iran did not disrupt supply in a lasting way.

Tony Sycamore of IG said the oil market is removing the geopolitical risk premium built into prices during last week’s rally. This has led to profit-taking by traders.

Analysts insights and market outlook

Analysts expect oil prices to remain influenced by diplomacy, currency moves, and supply levels. If US-Iran talks continue, risk premiums may reduce further. However, any shift in talks or supply policy could change the trend.

What should investors do now?

Investors should monitor geopolitical developments, especially US-Iran talks, as they influence oil prices. They should also track OPEC+ supply decisions and global demand trends. A strong US dollar can pressure oil, so currency movements matter. Traders may consider risk management strategies, including diversifying portfolios or using hedging tools, to protect against sudden price swings. Short-term volatility is likely, so cautious, informed decisions are recommended. Investors can focus on long-term fundamentals such as global supply-demand balance while avoiding decisions based solely on recent price drops.

FAQs

Q1: Why are oil prices down by 5% and will it continue to fall or rise again?
Oil prices fell after US-Iran tensions eased, the US dollar rose, and traders booked profits. Future movement depends on diplomacy, dollar trends, and supply decisions.

Q2: How does OPEC+ output affect oil prices?
OPEC+ decisions on oil production directly impact supply levels. Keeping output unchanged can pressure prices if demand is weak, while production cuts can support higher crude prices.

At 12:44 GMT, XAUUSD is trading $4793.49, down $101.94 or -2.08%.

The Next Battle Zone: $5002 to $5144

If we assume the new range is $5602.23 to $4402.38 then we expect to see the intraday rally extend into its retracement zone at $5002.31 to $5143.89. Traders will have a serious decision to make if this area is tested — whether to initiate shorts or play for an upside breakout of the zone.

The first leg down from a major top is usually long liquidation. After this is completed, the next move typically retraces 50% to 61.8% of the break. If this market is headed lower then aggressive shorts will come in on a test of the retracement zone at $5002.31 to $5143.89. If this zone is taken out then new buyers may take a shot at the record high.

Essentially, stopping at $5002.31 to $5143.89 will signal the presence of sellers, while taking out $5143.89 will signal the return of buyers.

Speculators Need to Step Aside — Real Buyers Need to Step In

A resumption of the rally would not be my ideal situation because it would suggest the return of speculative buyers. Ideally, I would like to see a support base form a little above the 50-day moving average. Building a support base would suggest the presence of real buyers.

What Really Caused Friday’s Selloff?

Fundamentally, I believe the long-term narrative is still bullish, but speculators drove the market too high, too fast over the short-run. Some traders want to blame Kevin Warsh’s nomination as the next U.S. Federal Reserve Chair for Friday’s steep sell-off, but I believe it may have been a combination of this and Wednesday’s Fed monetary policy statement that offered nothing as to the timing of the first rate cut of the year. Add in the margin hike by the CME Group and you get a mass liquidation that may have taken out all of the weaker longs.

Natural gas prices in the United States dropped by 17% in Asian trade on Monday, driven by forecasts for milder weather in the coming weeks.

Data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration cited by Bloomberg suggests that while most of the U.S. remains in the grip of cold winter weather, this is about to change, with parts of the country expected to see warmer-than-usual weather later this month.

Earlier this month, U.S. natural gas soared 117% over just five days amid the cold spell that led to a surge in the demand for heating and also reduced production, shrinking supply for both domestic consumption and LNG exports. ING analysts estimated that gas deliveries to LNG plants were down by as much as 48% last week.

The weather drove gas prices to the highest in four years, with Henry Hub topping $6.60 per million British thermal units last week as traders led to expect another mild January got a nasty surprise when they had to cover their short positions in equally short order.

While this happened, across the Atlantic, Europe saw its gas in storage continue to drain at much faster rates than usual. As of Saturday, the latest available data, EU gas in storage was at 41.13%. Germany’s was at 32.44%. Both levels are a lot lower than the average for the last five years.

Now, however, U.S. natural gas is down to $3.62 per mmBtu, which means that LNG prices are also going down, and Europe might get some respite on the spot market as gas storage refill season approaches.

Meanwhile, BloombergNEF reported, as cited by Nasdaq, that gas production affected by the snowstorms in the Lower 48 was gradually recovering, although it was still well short of demand. At 110 billion cu ft daily, the Friday production rate was 3.4% higher than a year ago but below the 128.7 billion cu ft in demand on that day.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

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