Copper price continued providing sideways trading, despite the positive factors to keep its fluctuating moves near the barrier at $5.3200, we will keep waiting to renew the bullish attempts by surpassing the current barrier to begin recording new gains by its rally towards $5.5000 reaching $5.6500 in the medium period trading.
Noting that the price decline below the extra support at $5.1300 will delay the bullish attack, which forces it to activate the corrective trading by suffering some losses by reaching $4.9500 and $4.7500.
The expected trading range for today is between 3.7500 and 4.0500
Platinum price surrendered to the sideways bias dominance, to fluctuate slowly near$1660.00 level, affected by the stability at $1695.00 barrier, which obstructs the chances of resuming the main bullish attack.
The price might keep providing sideways trading, however the stability above the extra support of $1605.00 supports the chances of renewing the bullish attempts, therefore, we will keep waiting for breaching the current barrier, to open the way for recording new gains that might begin at $1715.00 and $1745.00.
The expected trading range for today is between $1635.00 and $1695.00
Trend forecast: Sideways until achieving the breach
Gold is testing bearish commitments at the $4,250 psychological level on Thursday, pausing a two-day uptrend as markets weigh a less hawkish than feared US Federal Reserve (Fed) policy announcements.
Gold awaits US jobs data after the Fed verdict
Gold extended its overnight advance into early Asian trading on Thursday before witnessing a profit-taking pullback as sellers jumped in once again at the $4,250 level.
Non-yielding assets such as Gold built on its recent bullish momentum after the Fed delivered on the expected 25 basis points (bps) interest rate cut to 3.5%-3.75% on Wednesday.
Despite the widely anticipated rate cut, the US Dollar was slammed across the board alongside the US Treasury bond yields as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at his post-meeting press conference stuck to a cautious tone, disappointing those who had been positioned for a more hawkish one.
Markets continued to price in two more rate cuts next year, against the Fed’s median expectation for a single quarter-percentage-point cut next year, powering Gold at the expense of the Greenback.
Traders picked up on the Fed’s concerns over a slowing labor market, lending further support to the bright metal.
Now, with the critical Fed event risk out of the way, the focus turns toward the US employment data, with the Jobless Claims eagerly wait for fresh insights on the state of the labor market ahead of next week’s delayed Nonfarm Payrolls releases.
Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart
In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,225.19. The 21-, 50-, 100- and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) climb in bullish alignment, with the shorter ones above the longer ones. Price holds above all these references, reinforcing buyers’ control. The Relative Strength Index (14) prints at 61.83, positive and shy of overbought. Measured from the $4,381.17 high to the $3,885.84 low, the 61.8% retracement at $4,191.95 has been reclaimed, while the 78.6% retracement at $4,275.16 caps the topside.
On dips, the 21-day SMA at $4,157.88 offers initial support, with the 50-day at $4,105.76 cushioning deeper pullbacks. Momentum stays firm while the RSI holds above 50; a loss of the 21-day average could slow the rally and send price toward the 50-day SMA.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool)
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
The 20-day average at $4.68—decisively broken on Tuesday—was tested and rejected as resistance Wednesday with the session high of $4.70, delivering textbook bearish behavior where prior dynamic support transforms into overhead supply. Yesterday’s daily close below that average locked in the breakdown, immediately shifting focus to the 50-day average as the next prominent dynamic support line on the downside path.
Ascending Wedge Breakdown Adds Conviction
Compounding the bearish case, the lower boundary line of the ascending wedge pattern was violated as well, providing additional technical confirmation for the corrective thrust. Although a brief bounce could materialize before natural gas presses lower, the overall trajectory suggests it will eventually unfold that way after the hard sell-off that followed last week’s $5.50 high.
10-Day Average Role in the Reversal
That $5.50 peak looks to have completed the short-term trend for now, with the decisive selling immediately after and the failure of a key trend indicator like the 20-day average tipping the scales heavily toward bears. Any potential bounce in the near term may encounter resistance at higher price levels, including not just the 20-day average but also the 10-day line at $4.87. Monday’s low found support right around that average, only for Tuesday’s high to meet it as resistance, again illustrating how prior dynamic support is now showing as resistance and providing even further evidence for the bears.
Weekly Reversal Takes Shape
Further bearish alignment appears on the weekly chart, where a one-week reversal has already triggered this week and there is a good chance the close will confirm the breakdown below last week’s low of $4.76. The weekly trend has held strong since the October higher swing low at $2.89, marking seven straight weeks up. This represents the first decisive breakdown of a prior week’s low since then, a development that underscores the shift in sentiment.
Channel Dynamics Reveal Overextension
The relationship to a couple of rising trend channels provides further indications that the price of natural gas got severely overextended and was due for this bearish correction. Bullish momentum had accelerated sharply following a reclaim of the 200-day average, culminating in natural gas breaking out of a trend channel where the top channel line connects directly to the early-October swing high at $3.59. Then, on the new high day last week, there was a sharp breakout above the top channel line (200%) of the second channel—but that has proven to be a false breakout, as the swift reversal now validates.
Outlook
Natural gas continues to exhibit clear bearish control with the 20-day breakdown, wedge violation, and emerging weekly reversal all pointing to further downside toward the 50-day average. While a bounce testing the 10-day or 20-day as resistance fits the pattern, the overextended advance demands correction until excess unwinds—defense at the 50-day would signal possible stabilization, but momentum stays firmly with sellers for now.
Platinum price ended the last bullish rally after facing the barrier at $1695.00, to settle below it to form mixed trading by its fluctuating near $1665.00.
The price keeps providing mixed trading, but stochastic attempt to provide bullish momentum to breach the previously- mentioned barrier, reinforcing the chances of recording extra gains that might begin at $1715.00 and $1745.00, while the risk of changing the trend is represented by breaking the support at $1605.00, which forces it to suffer big losses by reaching $1575.00 initially.
The expected trading range for today is between $1645.00 and $1745.00
If gold remains above the 20-day average, now at $4,154, the bull trend structure remains in place and suggests an upside continuation. Last week’s high of $4,264 is the key resistance level to break to show that the buyers are getting more aggressive and it signals a continuation of the rally that began from the October swing low. Although the 20-day average broke during the pullback, the 50-day average was not reached, reflecting relatively strong demand. Similarly, since low the 50-day line has done a good job of tracking potential dynamic support without price having touched it.
Downside Contingency Levels
In the event that gold gets bearish with a drop below the 20-day average, the 50-day average, now at $4,097, is the next key dynamic support area. Since it has not been tested as support since the August breakout, support is anticipated to be seen around the average if it is approached. Concurrently, if gold breaks below it, that would be a bearish sign and put the near-term uptrend at risk of a deeper correction.
Channel Context Provides Strength
Gold broke out of two rising trend channels in October before failing to sustain the breakout with a drop back into the channels. However, the recent correction has been contained largely near the top of the channels. That is a sign of strength. At the same time, if selling from the failed breakout reasserts itself with a drop below the 50-day average, the rising centerline of the shorter channel becomes a potential target. Currently, the line has converged with a 50% retracement level at $3,825.
Upside Objectives
On the upside, a sustained breakout above $4,264 swing high targets the completion of an initial measured move target at $4,356. The trend high at $4,381 is the next upside target from there, followed by a 127.2% measured move projection at $4,454.
Outlook
Gold’s measured recovery and successful 10-day reclaim keep the larger bull trend dominant as long as the 20-day average holds. Clearance of $4,264 unlocks $4,356–$4,381 minimum; any weakness finds initial defense at the 50-day line, with the channel top and centerline confluence as the ultimate backstop before deeper risk emerges.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
The Federal Reserve is set to announce its decision on monetary policy.
Market players will be looking for clues on the Fed’s upcoming path.
XAU/USD is neutral-to-bullish in the near term, aims to resume its long-term bullish trend.
Gold price kept seesawing around the $4,200 mark throughout the first half of Wednesday, unable to attract investors. The FX board has been quiet due to the absence of a clear directional catalyst, exacerbated by the United States (US) government shutdown and the resulting uncertainty, which affected even the Federal Reserve (Fed)’s odds for a December interest rate cut.
However, the release of soft employment-related figures revived speculation that the central bank will deliver. And the day has come, the Fed is expected to announce a 25 basis points (bps) interest rate cut following its two-day meeting in the upcoming American afternoon.
Beyond the rate cut, policymakers are also expected to share their views on economic progress and monetary policy through the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). Finally, Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference, in which he will explain the officials’ reasoning beyond the decision. Market participants will be looking for clues on the interest rate path for 2026 and 2027.
Ahead of the announcement, the US Dollar (USD) trades with a soft tone while stocks maintain a positive bias. Should the Fed cut rates as expected and hint at more than one rate cut in the foreseeable future, such trends are likely to continue.
XAU/USD short-term technical outlook
In the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,201.02, slightly below its daily opening. The 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) has flattened just above the current level and edges marginally lower. At the same time, the 100- and 200-period SMAs continue to rise well below the current level, preserving a medium-term bullish bias. Support aligns with the 100-period SMA at $4,161.04, while the 200-period SMA at $4,100.74 underpins the broader trend. In the meantime, the Momentum indicator remains below 0 and edges higher, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 49 (neutral) and turns up, indicating sellers are losing steam.
XAU/USD daily chart shows that the 20-day SMA climbs above the 100- and 200-day SMAs, and all three slope higher, highlighting sustained bullish pressure. Price holds above its key averages, with the 20-day SMA at $4,153.07 offering nearby dynamic support. Finally, the Momentum indicator remains above its midline but eases, pointing to modest deceleration in buying interest, while the RSI indicator stands at 59, consistent with a positive tone.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool)
Natural gas prices activated the scenario of gathering the gains by reaching below the extra support at $4.750, targeting $4.580 level as appears in the above image.
Stochastic exit from the overbought that might increase the temporary negative pressure on the price, to expect reaching $4.420 and there is a chance for retesting the next support at $4.200, while the price success to step above $4.750 will increase the chances of forming strong bullish trading, to repeat the attempts of reaching $5.100.
The expected trading range for today is between $4.420 and $4.800
On Tuesday, US natural gas price extended losses from the previous session in reaction to forecasts of warmer weather in most parts of the country. Near-record output and ample inventories have further fueled the pullback, even as the bulls remain in control. Meanwhile, European prices are under selling pressure as investors weigh the prospects of a peace deal and subsequent easing of Russian sanctions.
Europe Vs US natural gas prices: The paradox that lies within
This time of the year is usually marked by higher natural gas prices as investors price in increased warming demand during the Northern Hemisphere’s winter season. In fact, weather forecast is one of the bullish factors that bolstered US natural gas prices to a three-year high late last week. Besides, record LNG exports to Europe have fueled the months-long rally.
While the short-term outlook remains positive, investors appear to weigh on whether the recent surge is the onset of a larger bullish trend or just a weather-driven spike that will soon fade. Indeed, this dilemma, coupled with the expected profit-booking, explains the pullback recorded since the start of the week.
According to the updated weather forecast, most parts of the US are expected to experience warmer temperatures in the near term. Atmospheric G2 has indicated that the eastern and southern US will be colder for the period between 18th and 22nd December, while other regions remain warmer.
In its latest weekly report, EIA highlighted a draw of 12 Bcf compared to the expected 15 Bcf. Subsequently, the surplus surged from 160 Bcf to 191 Bcf. In addition to the ample amount of natural gas in storage, the near-record output is weighing on the prices.
Nonetheless, steady LNG exports continue to offer support to US natural gas prices while exerting selling pressure in the European market. In the current month, the natural gas flows to the eight major LNG export plants within the US are averaging at 18.9 Bcf/per day compared to the monthly record high hit in November at 18.2 Bcf/per day.
Meanwhile, prospects of a peace deal that could see the return of Russian gas have pushed the benchmark for European prices, Dutch TTF, to the lowest level since April 2024.
US natural gas price technical analysis
Late last week, the Henry Hub natural gas futures rallied to a three-year high at $5.50 per MMBtu as it marked seven consecutive weeks of gains. Since late September, it has recorded higher highs and higher lows as a positive demand outlook fuels the bullish sentiment.
On Tuesday, it extended losses from the previous session, having pulled back below the psychologically crucial zone of $5.00. At the time of writing, the US natural gas was trading at $4.81.
Despite the pullback, the bulls are still in control as the asset continues to trade above the 25 and 50-day EMAs. Indeed, the decline can be perceived as a cool-off rather than trend reversal.
In the immediate term, the range between Monday’s intraday high of $5.20 and the resistance-turn-support zone of $4.70 will be worth watching. Below that zone, the bulls will be keen on defending the crucial support at $4.50 as they gather enough momentum for a rebound. On the flip side, a bounceback past the range’s upper limit will give buyers a chance to retest the 3-year high at $5.50.
There is no change on copper price, despite forming mixed trading due to its stability above the extra support near $5.1300, increasing the chances of its activation with the positivity of the main indicators.
Stochastic stability within the overbought level will provide new positive momentum to ease the mission of resuming the bullish attack, reminding you that the stability of the next main target near $5.5000, while the decline below the current support might force it to form temporary corrective trading, and there is a chance for the decline towards $4.9500 reaching the main support near $4.7500.
The expected trading range for today is between $5.1850 and $5.5000
