Oil prices are set to average below $60 per barrel next year, investment banks have said in their latest forecasts in recent weeks. 

In 2026, both Brent Crude and WTI Crude are expected to slip from current levels of $63 per barrel and $60 a barrel, respectively, as the emerging oversupply will overwhelm the market, analysts say. 

Geopolitical factors will certainly play into the price of oil next year, and these will be centered on Venezuela, Russia, and Iran. 

Despite the many geopolitical uncertainties, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and Wall Street banks are looking at the fundamentals and remain bearish on oil for the next year, forecasting prices to average below $60 per barrel in 2026. 

The EIA expects, in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), that global oil inventories will continue to rise through 2026, putting downward pressure on oil prices in the coming months. The EIA forecasts the Brent crude oil price will dip to an average of $54 per barrel in the first quarter of 2026, and average $55 a barrel for all of 2026. Still, the EIA’s Brent forecast for 2026 is $3 per barrel higher than in the previous month’s outlook, due to Chinese stockpiling and the intensified sanctions on Russia. 

“First, we now assess that China’s ongoing purchases of oil for strategic stockpiling will place more upward pressure on oil prices than we had assumed previously. Second, this forecast recognizes that the recent round of sanctions on Russia’s oil sector could result in less oil production next year than we are currently forecasting,” the EIA said. 

Macquarie Group also sees lower oil prices next year, but notes that sanctions on Russia, uncertainty about Venezuela, and U.S. winter weather could slow price declines. 

Macquarie analysts believe that OPEC+ would have to implement production cuts in the second half of 2026 to steady the market amid an expected drop in prices, according to the bank’s latest quarterly forecast carried by World Oil. 

ABN AMRO Bank said in its Energy Market Outlook 2026 that weak global demand growth and rising OPEC+ and non-OPEC+ supply have resulted in an oversupplied market. Prices haven’t plunged due to China’s stockpiling efforts and geopolitical uncertainties, said Moutaz Altaghlibi, senior energy economist at ABN AMRO Bank. 

“All in all, we anticipate the supply glut—caused by weaker demand growth and increasing supply—to persist throughout 2026, with its impact steadily pushing crude prices lower,” Altaghlibi said. 

ABN AMRO forecasts Brent crude to average $58 per barrel in the first quarter of 2026, gradually falling to $52 a barrel as the glut worsens, and ultimately reaching $50 per barrel by the end of the year, with a year average of $55 per barrel. 

Ole Hvalbye, commodities analyst at SEB bank, said last week, “We continue to see the path of least resistance as skewed to the downside.” 

“Rising tension between Washington and Venezuela is adding a small geopolitical premium, although not enough to offset the broader bearish backdrop of rising supply and a market leaning deeper into surplus,” Hvalbye said. 

Other banks and analysts concur that the glut will be the key theme in fundamentals next year. 

Related: OPEC+’s Strategic Pause Signals a Shifting Oil Power Balance

Oversupplied markets will keep oil prices under pressure next year, and the U.S. benchmark will average below $60 per barrel, the monthly Reuters poll of analysts and economists showed at the end of November. 

WTI Crude is expected to average $59 per barrel in 2026, and Brent Crude, the international benchmark, is set to average $62.23 per barrel next year, down from $63.15 forecast in the Reuters poll in October. 

Goldman Sachs sees a large surplus on the market, with WTI Crude expected to average $53 per barrel in 2026.  

The oil market is set to rebalance in 2027 as 2026 will see “the last big oil supply wave the market has to work through,” Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, told CNBC last month. 

Fundamentals point to lower oil prices next year, but geopolitical shocks are lurking around the corner, from Russia to Venezuela. 

A loss of Venezuelan oil production in case of a U.S. military intervention will materially impact global benchmark prices as the market will have to replace Venezuela’s heavy crude—the bulk of Caracas’ crude exports, according to Rystad Energy. A potential tightening of the global heavy crude market could push up the price of the Dubai benchmark against ICE Brent as China will scramble to replace the lost Venezuelan barrels, the analysts said last week.  

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com 

More Top Reads From Oilprice.com

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Natural gas price reached $5.510 level in Friday’s trading, to record the previously suggested initial main target, which forces it to form quick rebound towards $5.150, affected by stochastic attempt to exit the overbought level.

This will not threaten the main bullish scenario due to the stability within the bullish channel, besides the continuation of forming extra support at $4.750 level against the current trading, therefore, we will keep waiting for gathering extra bullish momentum, to ease the mission of its stability above $5.450 level, then wait for recording the next main target near $5.710.

The expected trading range for today is between $5.000 and $5.450

Trend forecast: Bullish

Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) declined slightly in its latest intraday trading after the stock collided with the resistance of its previous 50-day SMA, as it attempts to acquire positive momentum that may help it overcome its negative pressure. This comes under the dominance of a short-term corrective ascending trend, with the price moving alongside a supporting trendline, accompanied by positive signals from the RSI indicators.

Therefore we expect the stock to rise in its upcoming trading, but only if it first breaks the resistance level of $43.45, targeting thereafter its next resistance at $46.00.

Today’s price forecast: Neutral

Is the Weather Trade Losing Its Grip?

Prices ran hot last week on colder outlooks and anticipation of hefty draws in the next three EIA storage reports. But over the weekend, the European (EC) weather model shifted notably warmer for the 8–15 day period, blunting the bullish narrative. The GFS model still leans colder, but even that has moderated.

That’s not what bulls wanted to see. Traders betting on sustained winter demand were leaning heavily on those extended forecasts to keep the rally going. Instead, the shift back toward seasonal or above-average temps later this month throws cold water on the idea of a sustained push above $5.50.

Storage Draws Begin, But Bulls Want Bigger Numbers

Last week’s EIA report showed a 12 Bcf draw — modest, but expected for the week ending Nov 28. Total stocks now sit at 3,923 Bcf, still 191 Bcf above the five-year average. With three bigger draws on deck due to this week’s frigid system sweeping across the northern U.S., bulls are counting on storage to tighten quickly.

But positioning is tricky here. The market wants to price in those stronger withdrawals — and there’s a decent case for it — but if weather models continue to lean mild into late December, the risk is that even strong EIA prints get faded. Especially if buyers start questioning how long the cold sticks around.

Traders Watching Support Levels and Forecasts Like a Hawk

Technically, the retreat from $5.496 isn’t just profit-taking — it’s a sentiment shift. The 50% retracement at $4.953 is being tested right now, and it’s a line in the sand. A clean break could trigger momentum selling toward $4.73. On the flip side, if models trend back colder and $4.953 holds, dip buyers may re-emerge.

Bottom line: the weather premium is under review. Models have turned against the bulls for now, and the price action reflects that. If we get another round of milder updates, the selloff likely deepens. But if the cold snaps back into the 8–15 day window, traders could chase another leg higher.

Select market data provided by ICE Data Services. Select reference data provided by FactSet. Copyright © 2025 FactSet Research Systems Inc.Copyright © 2025, American Bankers Association. CUSIP Database provided by FactSet Research Systems Inc. All rights reserved. SEC fillings and other documents provided by Quartr.© 2025 TradingView, Inc.

Silver has pushed higher over the past week, supported by a combination of falling U.S. yields, a softer dollar and rising conviction that the Federal Reserve is moving closer to a rate cut next week. That shift has revived interest across the precious-metals complex, but silver has outperformed thanks to its higher beta to easing financial conditions. At the same time, positioning has turned more constructive as investors add exposure to metals with strong momentum ahead of key risk events.

The rally is also getting a lift from firm industrial demand indicators, with solar and electronics orders remaining resilient and exchange inventories still relatively tight. This has created a short-term squeeze dynamic: with physical supply not keeping pace, even modest speculative inflows have had an outsized impact on prices. The key watchpoints for the coming days will be U.S. inflation data, central-bank communication and any shifts in yields, all of which could either extend silver’s breakout or trigger a quick bout of profit-taking after a strong run.

Silver (XAG/USD) daily chart

 

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Technical picture suggests speculative positioning

On the chart, last week’s rally caused XAG/USD to re-enter into overbought territory in the RSI, which is likely attracting some interest from sellers. The bias remains constructive with the path of least resistance pointing higher. However, the continuation of the rally is likely to come with bouts of selling as some participants ease out of the positions, so a further reversal below $55 cannot be discarded. The setup is also looking very speculative with exponential gains over the past few days so a deeper reversal could eventually be triggered.

FOMC meeting in focus

The main risk event before the meeting is Friday’s delayed September PCE report, which could easily upset the market if inflation prints firmer than expected. A surprise on the upside – especially a core print with a 3-handle – would likely force a quick unwind of rate-cut bets and trigger a USD rebound, weighing on sentiment and likely pushing silver lower. Conversely, a soft PCE number followed by cautious Fed communication next week could reinforce downward pressure on the dollar, allowing risk appetite to get another boost. Because of this, the setup heading into the FOMC is one where silver’s next move is highly data-dependent, with volatility the most likely outcome

On Monday, December 8, 2025, oil prices are holding close to two‑week highs, with Brent crude trading just under $64 per barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) hovering around $60 per barrel in early trade. ^[1]

The market is being pulled in two directions:

• Supportive near‑term drivers – expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut this week and strong oil demand data from India and China. ^[2]
• Bearish medium‑term outlooks – major agencies and Wall Street banks are warning of a sizable global oil surplus and lower prices in 2026. ^[3]

Below is a detailed look at where prices stand today, what’s driving the market on December 8, 2025, and how forecasts for 2026 and beyond are shaping trader sentiment.

Oil Prices Today: Brent and WTI Snapshot

As of Monday:

• Brent crude (front month) is trading in the $63.5–$63.9 per barrel range, near its highest levels since mid‑November. ^[4]
• WTI crude (front month) is around $59.8–$60.2 per barrel, edging slightly higher but still capped near the $60 mark. ^[5]

Both benchmarks are consolidating gains after notching their strongest closes in about two weeks at the end of last week. ^[6]

Even with today’s bounce, prices remain well below the $80+ levels seen in 2024, aligning with U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that Brent averaged around $81 per barrel last year. ^[7]

Why Oil Prices Are Holding Near Two‑Week Highs

1. Fed Rate Cut Expectations Are Lifting Risk Appetite

Oil is trading like a macro asset again, and today’s pricing is heavily influenced by expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its December meeting.

• Futures markets put the probability of a quarter‑point cut at about 84%, according to LSEG data cited by Reuters. ^[8]
• Lower borrowing costs tend to weaken the dollar and support commodities priced in dollars, while also improving the outlook for global growth and energy demand. ^[9]

Analysts quoted by Reuters say the market is in “wait‑and‑see” mode ahead of the Fed decision: strong confirmation of a rate‑cutting cycle could keep crude supported, while a more hawkish tone could quickly knock prices lower. ^[10]

2. Geopolitics: Russia, Venezuela, and Ukraine Keep a Risk Premium in the Market

Geopolitical risk remains a key ingredient in today’s price:

• Russia–Ukraine war:
  Ongoing Ukrainian attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure and uncertainty around peace talks continue to cast a shadow over future Russian exports. ^[11]
• G7 and EU Russian oil measures:
  Group of Seven countries and the EU are debating whether to replace the Russian oil price cap with broader maritime service bans, a shift that could make it harder to ship Russian crude and tighten supply. ^[12]
• Venezuela sanctions risk:
  U.S. officials are also weighing tougher action on Venezuela, which could disrupt flows from the OPEC member and add to supply risk in the Atlantic Basin. ^[13]

At the same time, Russia is assuring key buyers that supply will keep flowing. President Vladimir Putin recently pledged “uninterrupted” fuel shipments to India, underlining how Moscow is leaning on Asian markets to absorb barrels barred from Western buyers. ^[14]

The net effect: geopolitics is supportive for prices today, even as longer‑term forecasts point to oversupply.

Demand Side: India and China Are Driving Today’s Bullish Tone

Fresh data from Asia, released today, is another reason oil is firming.

India: Fuel Demand Hits a Six‑Month High

Reuters data show that India’s fuel demand in November climbed to 21.27 million metric tons, a six‑month peak: ^[15]

• Up 5.5% month‑on‑month and 3% year‑on‑year.
• Diesel consumption, a key proxy for freight and industrial activity, jumped 12.2% from October and 4.7% versus a year earlier. ^[16]
• India remains the world’s third‑largest oil consumer and importer and the biggest buyer of Russian seaborne crude, capitalizing on discounted barrels. ^[17]

These numbers tell traders that demand in one of the world’s fastest‑growing economies is still robust, helping offset weak spots elsewhere.

China: Crude Imports Surge to a 27‑Month High

China’s customs data, also reported today, show crude oil imports of 50.89 million metric tons in November, equivalent to 12.38 million barrels per day – the highest daily level since August 2023. ^[18]

• Imports were up 4.9% year‑on‑year and 5.2% month‑on‑month. ^[19]
• Arrivals rose particularly from Saudi Arabia and Iran, while Russian arrivals dipped as some refiners bumped against import quota limits. ^[20]

Interestingly, refinery utilization rates actually eased and refined product output fell by about 5.7% month‑on‑month, meaning Chinese refiners are stocking up on cheap feedstock ahead of 2026 import quotas rather than responding to a sudden consumption boom. ^[21]

For the oil market, this data suggests that Asian buyers are still absorbing large crude volumes, but part of today’s demand is opportunistic stocking – something that could soften later if prices or quotas move.

Supply, Surplus and 2026: Agencies See a Glut Forming

Behind today’s relatively firm prices is an increasingly bearish supply–demand balance for 2026.

OPEC: From Deficit to Small Surplus

• In its November report, OPEC shifted its 2026 outlook from a modest deficit to a small surplus of about 20,000 barrels per day, assuming OPEC+ continues to pump at October’s rate. ^[22]
• The group expects global oil demand to rise by around 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025 and slightly faster in 2026, but it now assumes stronger non‑OPEC+ supply, especially from the U.S. and Brazil. ^[23]
• OPEC+ plans to pause production hikes in Q1 2026, acknowledging fears of oversupply. ^[24]

In the longer term, the OPEC World Oil Outlook 2025 projects that global oil demand does not peak this decade, instead rising toward about 123 million barrels per day by 2050 in its central scenario. ^[25]

IEA: A Much Bigger Surplus

The International Energy Agency (IEA) is considerably more bearish for the mid‑2020s:

• Its November Oil Market Report estimates that the global oil market could face a 2026 surplus of about 4.09 million barrels per day, roughly 4% of world demand. ^[26]
• The IEA expects global supply to rise by 3.1 million barrels per day in 2025 and 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026, outpacing demand even after modest upward revisions. ^[27]
• Global oil inventories are already swelling, with total stocks approaching 8 billion barrels and waterborne storage climbing sharply. ^[28]

In short: the IEA sees the market “increasingly lopsided”, with supply forging ahead while demand growth looks modest by historical standards. ^[29]

EIA: Brent Seen Dropping to Mid‑$50s in 2026

The U.S. EIA’s latest Short‑Term Energy Outlook adds a clear price tag to this oversupply story:

• Brent crude is forecast to average about $69 per barrel in 2025, then fall to around $55 per barrel in 2026, with Q1 2026 around $54 as inventories keep building. ^[30]
• The EIA frames this as a return to significantly lower prices, consistent with expectations that global oil stocks will grow throughout 2026. ^[31]

Put together, the big three – OPEC, IEA and EIA – all now see some level of surplus in 2026. The disagreement is over how big that glut will be.

Banks and Analysts: A Market Anchored Around $60… For Now

Wall Street and bank research desks are broadly aligned with the agencies:

• J.P. Morgan Research has cut its Brent forecasts to $66 per barrel for 2025 and $58 for 2026, reflecting softer demand growth and robust non‑OPEC supply. ^[32]
• Goldman Sachs expects prices to slide through 2026 amid a supply surge, then gradually recover toward $80 Brent and $76 WTI by late 2028 as low prices discourage investment and new projects. ^[33]
• A broader survey of major banks, reported at the end of November, finds many expecting oil in the low‑to‑mid $50s in 2026, with some warning of a return to price levels last seen during the COVID‑era downturn if oversupply becomes extreme. ^[34]

Today’s Reuters piece also highlights analysis from the Commonwealth Bank of Australia: the bank sees oversupply fears eventually materializing, especially as Russian crude and refined products increasingly work around sanctions. Its base case is for futures to “gradually track towards $60 per barrel through 2026.” ^[35]

Given that Brent and WTI are trading very close to that $60 handle today, the market is behaving as if current prices are roughly in line with the medium‑term equilibrium, with limited conviction about a sustained move much higher or lower in the near term.

Short‑Term Risks to Watch After Today

From today’s vantage point (December 8, 2025), traders are focused on a handful of catalysts that could quickly shift prices away from the current ~$60–64 band:

1. This Week’s Fed Decision
   • A smaller‑than‑expected cut or a hawkish message could hit risk assets, strengthen the dollar and pressure oil.
   • A clearer easing path could support crude by boosting demand expectations. ^[36]
2. Russia‑Ukraine Developments
   • A credible peace roadmap could unlock more than 2 million barrels per day of additional Russian supply, according to ANZ estimates cited by Reuters – a decisively bearish outcome.
   • Conversely, sustained damage to Russian oil infrastructure would reinforce the bullish geopolitical risk premium. ^[37]
3. Sanctions and Maritime Restrictions on Russian Oil
   • If G7 and EU governments move from a price cap to sweeping maritime services bans, shipping and insuring Russian barrels will become more complicated, potentially disrupting flows and lifting prices. ^[38]
4. OPEC+ Policy Tweaks
   • Although OPEC+ plans to pause production hikes in early 2026, it could still adjust quotas or announce new cuts if prices fall more sharply than members can tolerate. ^[39]
5. Asian Demand Surprises
   • India’s and China’s latest data are bullish, but if their economies slow or if stocking fades, import demand could soften. On the other hand, stronger growth or more generous 2026 import quotas would keep the demand side supportive. ^[40]

What Today’s Oil Price Means for Consumers and Businesses

For Consumers

The combination of $60–64 crude and a 2026 outlook in the mid‑$50s suggests that:

• Retail fuel prices are likely to remain notably lower than in 2022–2023 and lower than much of 2024, barring a major supply shock. ^[41]
• The EIA expects average U.S. gasoline prices to drift toward around $3 per gallon by 2026, offering some relief to households compared with earlier inflation spikes. ^[42]

For Producers and Oil‑Linked Businesses

• Upstream producers face an awkward mix of decent current prices but weak forward curves, which may limit aggressive investment and drilling plans, particularly in higher‑cost basins. ^[43]
• Refining and petrochemical players may benefit from cheaper crude feedstock if 2026 forecasts materialise, provided end‑user demand holds up. ^[44]
• Import‑dependent economies like India benefit from today’s relatively moderate prices, especially as they negotiate discounts on sanctioned barrels from Russia and Iran. ^[45]

As always, none of this should be considered personalized investment advice. Oil remains a highly volatile asset class, and sudden geopolitical or macro shocks can overwhelm even the best‑informed forecasts.

Quick FAQ: Oil Price Today – December 8, 2025

Q: What is the oil price today, December 8, 2025?
A: Brent crude is trading just under $64 per barrel, while WTI is around $60 per barrel, near two‑week highs. ^[46]

Q: Why are oil prices up today?
A: Prices are supported by expectations of a Fed rate cut, which could boost global growth, and by strong demand signals from India and China, alongside ongoing geopolitical risks around Russian supply and potential new sanctions. ^[47]

Q: Will oil prices rise or fall in 2026?
A: Most major forecasters – including the IEA, EIA, OPEC and large banks – see a market surplus in 2026 and expect Brent to average around the mid‑$50s, below today’s levels, though opinions differ on the scale of the glut. ^[48]

Q: What are the biggest risks to the current outlook?
A: The main wildcards are the Federal Reserve’s policy path, Russia‑Ukraine developments, the severity of sanctions on Russian and Venezuelan oil, and the strength of Asian demand. A large supply disruption or unexpectedly strong growth could push prices higher than forecast; a deeper glut could push them lower. ^[49]

References

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