Created on October 03, 2025

• The gold market has been all over the place during the trading session here on Thursday as we are starting to struggle with the idea of the $3,900 level.
• Ultimately, I think this is a situation where if we do get a pullback, that’s a good thing.
• The market has been so strong for so long now that I think you have to look at this through the prism of a market that just quite frankly is on fire, and it looks like it’s doing everything it can to get to the $4,000 level.

Pullbacks are Good for Gold

I do think the pullbacks make a lot of sense and I do like buying them. The $3,800 level is an area that I’m very interested in myself, as the ascending triangle had a measured move to the $3,800 level that we did in fact break above. By breaking above there, it suggests to me at least that the market is going to remain bullish for quite some time, but I also recognize that there’s probably a bit of market memory in that area. Anything below there doesn’t necessarily mean that I would get bearish on this market, just that I might be a little bit more selective.

To the upside, the $4,000 level is the obvious target and I do think that given enough time, we will reach that level. The Federal Reserve is likely to cut rates a couple of times between now and summer, but that may not even be the big driver. I think a lot of concerns about global economic instability is a major problem. So, with this, I’m bullish on gold. I would like to see a little bit more of a pullback and try to buy it cheaply. At this point, it is all but impossible to get short of gold, so a little bit of patience will more likely than not pay off.

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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

Natural gas price reached $3.600 level, achieving the second suggested target in the previous report, which forced it to form quick correctional rebound, to settle near $3.440.

The intraday sideways trading is caused by stochastic exit from the overbought level, to expect providing unstable mixed trading until gathering the extra positive momentum, to ease the mission of resuming the bullish attack, and reaching extra stations that are represented by $3.710 and $3.830.

The expected trading range for today is between $3.380 and $3.600

Trend forecast: Fluctuated

The (Brent) price rose in its last trading on the intraday levels, amid the dominance of main bearish wave on the short-term basis, with the continuation of the negative pressure that comes from its trading below EMA50, intensifying the negative pressure around the price, attempting to recover some of its previous losses, and offloading some of its clear oversold levels on the relative strength indicators, especially with the emergence of the positive signals.

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Gold Price (XAU/USD) Extends Record Run as Safe-Haven Demand Surges

Gold continues to dominate global markets, with XAU/USD trading near $3,844 after briefly dipping toward $3,820 before recovering. The metal is on pace for a seventh straight weekly gain, rising 47% year-to-date and gaining 14% just since late August, making it one of the strongest asset classes in 2025. Futures in India also reflect the surge: MCX December contracts fell slightly to ₹1,16,945 per 10 grams, while the February 2026 contract cooled from a record ₹1,19,674 per 10 grams to ₹1,18,213, highlighting mild profit-taking at these peaks.

Geopolitical and Macro Drivers Underpinning XAU/USD Momentum

The rally is being fueled by the U.S. government shutdown, which entered its second day and created a data blackout from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Nonfarm Payrolls data may not be released on schedule, amplifying uncertainty. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s pivot is firmly in play, with markets pricing a 99% chance of a 25 bps rate cut at the October 29 FOMC meeting, bringing the fed funds rate into the 3.75%–4% range. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan warned that inflation remains elevated, but traders see political paralysis and slowing labor momentum as catalysts for easing. This environment has pushed investors aggressively into safe havens, boosting gold alongside falling Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield slipping to 4.08%.

Regional Prices Confirm Strength Across India’s Hubs

Spot bullion rates in New Delhi were quoted at ₹1,17,000 per 10 grams, while Mumbai rates reached ₹1,17,190 per 10 grams. Silver also tracked higher, with New Delhi at ₹1,42,910/kg and Mumbai at ₹1,43,050/kg. On the MCX, gold futures traded at ₹1,16,290 per 10 grams, underscoring the intensity of futures-driven flows as traders hedge against policy and fiscal risk. This synchronized move across India’s largest bullion centers reinforces that the rally is broad-based and not speculative in isolation.

ETF and Central Bank Flows Signal Long-Term Commitment

A critical underpinning of the rally is the massive inflow into Western ETFs, with holdings up 109 tonnes in September alone, compared with Goldman Sachs’ model estimate of just 17 tonnes. This shows private investors are rotating away from bonds into bullion at an accelerated pace. Central bank buying remains strong, with emerging market institutions continuing to diversify away from the U.S. dollar. According to Goldman, speculation has contributed only about 1 percentage point of the 14% rally since August 26, meaning the surge is being driven by structural flows, not hot money.

Profit-Taking Emerges but Downside Remains Limited

Analysts note that after such an aggressive run, technical indicators show gold in “overbought” territory. Thursday saw MCX December futures dip ₹643 (-0.55%) as traders booked profits, snapping a five-day winning streak. Still, market watchers suggest pullbacks will be shallow. Support for XAU/USD sits near $3,793, with a stronger floor at the 20-day moving average around $3,713. Upside levels to monitor include $3,850, $3,895, and $3,900, with a sustained break above $3,900 potentially triggering a new wave of inflows.

Goldman Sachs Raises Alarm on $4,000 Ceiling Break

Goldman Sachs reiterated gold as its “highest-conviction long commodity recommendation,” lifting expectations above its mid-2026 target of $4,000/oz. The bank argues that even minor portfolio shifts from fixed income into gold could unleash another leg higher given the relative size of bond markets. Structurally higher central bank accumulation, coupled with ETF inflows, is building the case for bullion exceeding $4,000 much sooner than initially projected.

Short-Term Technicals and Market Sentiment

From a technical perspective, XAU/USD is consolidating above the EMA50 and riding a supportive bullish trendline, reinforcing upside bias. RSI readings are stretched but remain above the midline, suggesting momentum is intact despite near-term exhaustion signals. A daily close above $3,850 would open the door to retesting $3,895 and $3,900, while a failure to hold $3,832 could invite corrective moves toward $3,793. Sentiment is overwhelmingly bullish, yet the emergence of profit-taking shows traders are cautious at record valuations.

Investment Verdict on XAU/USD

Factoring in the 47% YTD gain, the structural ETF inflows, central bank buying, Fed easing bets, and political turmoil from the U.S. shutdown, gold remains a BUY at current levels. Near-term pullbacks toward $3,793–$3,800 should be seen as entry opportunities, with medium-term upside targets stretching toward $4,000–$4,200 per ounce. Given the macro backdrop, XAU/USD continues to justify its role as the strongest hedge in 2025, even as volatility around these record levels persists.

That’s TradingNEWS

The global market price of natural gas has now dropped so far that it’s returned to the levels seen in the summer of 2021 — that is, back to where it was before Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

As of Thursday, the price of natural gas on the Dutch TTF gas exchange was €31 per megawatt-hour. For comparison, the price briefly spiked to nearly €60 in February of this year, but has been trending downward since. Over the past three months, it has hovered between €30 and €35 per megawatt-hour.

“The gas market is currently stable. New supply chains are in place and the price of gas has fallen back to summer 2021 levels. Current forecasts suggest it will remain around this level through the upcoming heating season,” Kristofer Vähi, head of portfolio management and optimization at Elenger, told ERR.

Vähi said the price for residential customers — €0.54 per cubic meter since June — will remain the same in November. What happens after that will depend on global market prices, especially those on the TTF exchange, which is used to source gas for the Estonian region.

Kalvi Nõu, head of energy trading at Alexela, also told ERR he doesn’t believe gas prices for household consumers will rise this winter.

“Compared to last winter, prices will likely be 20 to 30 percent lower and they probably won’t go up from where they are today,” said Nõu.

Last December, gas prices on the TTF exchange fluctuated between €40 and €50, rose above €50 in January and peaked at €58 per megawatt-hour in February.

Still, a price rebound this fall cannot be ruled out, Vähi noted, because the current balance is still fragile and there are many variables at play.

“The global market is increasingly supplied with U.S. LNG, but large-scale growth in supply will take a few more years. In Europe, storage levels are somewhat below the historical average, which means that cold weather or unexpected events could cause price volatility,” he said.

Nõu, however, pointed out that due to the increased LNG production capacity compared to last year, the risk of a gas shortage in the European Union has become minimal, and that’s reflected in the prices.

“In theory, factors that could drive up gas prices include cold weather and forecasts, geopolitical developments or problems with LNG export capacity,” he added.

According to Nõu, gas storage in the EU currently stands at 82.5 percent of maximum capacity and will likely increase somewhat further before the active heating season begins.

There are no supply issues in Estonia’s region either, Vähi said.

“There are no problems with supply security in the Baltic region and overall the situation is stable. In addition to ongoing LNG deliveries, the region’s gas needs are buffered by Latvia’s very large underground storage facility,” he said.

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The (ETHUSD) price soared high in its last intraday trading, resuming its strong gains amid the dominance of the bullish corrective trend on the short-term basis and its trading alongside supportive trendline for this track, with the continuation of the positive pressure due to its trading above EMA50, with the emergence of the positive signals on the relative strength indicators, despite reaching overbought levels, indicating the strength of the positive momentum.

Therefore, our expectations suggest a rise in the (ETHUSD) price in its upcoming intraday trading, conditioned by its stability above $4,280, to target the initial resistance level at $4,500.

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