XAU/USD Current price: $3,870.97

• The United States government ran out of funding, data releases delays.
• The ADP Employment Change report came in much worse than anticipated in September.
• XAU/USD retreats from record highs, retains the bullish bias.

Spot Gold peaked at $3,895.29 on Wednesday, a fresh all-time high. The bright metal rallied on news that the United States (US) government effectively shut down on Wednesday, as Congress was unable to agree on a funding bill. The US Dollar (USD) fell against all major rivals, with safe-haven assets benefiting the most.

Republicans and Democrats have different views on how to re-fund the federal government, and the irreconcilable differences persist. Mid-Wednesday, the Senate voted once again not to advance the Democratic-backed resolution to fund the government for a few weeks.

Meanwhile, US data was mixed. On the one hand, ADP released the Employment Change report, which showed the private sector lost 32,000 job positions in September, much worse than the 50,000 gain anticipated by market participants. The report also reported a 3,000 position loss in August, downwardly revised from a previously reported 54,000 increase.

On the other hand, the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) came in slightly better than anticipated, printing at 49.1 in September vs expectations of 49 and the previous 48.7.

The dismal mood eased after Wall Street’s opening, as stocks shrugged off concerns. The three major indexes trade in the green, weighing on the bright metal. The XAU/USD pair also retreated on modest USD demand.

Most of the US data scheduled for the rest of the risk will hardly see the light if the shutdown persists. In such a scenario, then, Gold is likely to remain attractive and challenge the $4,000 mark.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

XAU/USD trades around $3,870, and technical readings in the daily chart show that it keeps posting higher highs, in line with the dominant bullish trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains at extreme readings, ticking marginally higher at around 81 but mostly flat. The Momentum indicator, in the meantime, resumed its advance above its 100 line, with plenty of room to advance. Finally, the pair keeps rallying above all bullish moving averages, with the nearest being the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently at $3,699.

The 4-hour chart shows XAU/USD has corrected overbought readings, while the risk remains skewed to the upside. The RSI indicator turned flat after easing sub-70, while the Momentum indicator still aims south, although well above its 100 line while losing downward steam. Finally, moving averages maintain their upward slopes well below the current level, with the 20 SMA providing support at around $3,828.

Support levels: 3,853.25 3,828.00 3,807.05

Resistance levels: 3,895.00 3,910.00 3,930.00

Natural gas price activated with the main indicators’ positivity, breaching the resistance at $3.290 level, to settle within the main bullish channel’s levels, achieving some gains by reaching 3.365.

Forming main support at $3.280 level, besides the continuation of providing positive momentum by the main indicators, we expect forming a new bullish rally to surpass $3.410 level, to target the next station at 3.350.

The expected trading range for today is between $3.300 and $3.530

Trend forecast: Bullish

Natural gas price activated with the main indicators’ positivity, breaching the resistance at $3.290 level, to settle within the main bullish channel’s levels, achieving some gains by reaching 3.365.

Forming main support at $3.280 level, besides the continuation of providing positive momentum by the main indicators, we expect forming a new bullish rally to surpass $3.410 level, to target the next station at 3.350.

The expected trading range for today is between $3.300 and $3.530

Trend forecast: Bullish

The (ETHUSD) price settled with gains in its last intraday trading, amid the dominance of the bullish correctional trend on the short-term basis and its trading alongside supportive trend line for this track, with the continuation of the positive pressure due to its trading above EMA50, representing dynamic support that helps the price rise, with the positive divergence on the relative strength indicators, after reaching oversold levels, exaggeratedly compared to the price move, with the emergence of the positive signals from them.

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The (ETHUSD) price settled with gains in its last intraday trading, amid the dominance of the bullish correctional trend on the short-term basis and its trading alongside supportive trend line for this track, with the continuation of the positive pressure due to its trading above EMA50, representing dynamic support that helps the price rise, with the positive divergence on the relative strength indicators, after reaching oversold levels, exaggeratedly compared to the price move, with the emergence of the positive signals from them.

VIP Trading Signals Performance by BestTradingSignal.com (September 22–26, 2025)

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Full VIP signals performance report for September 22–26, 2025:

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• Gold hangs close to fresh record highs above $3,870 early Wednesday.
• US Dollar consolidates the downside on US government shutdown concerns.     
• Technically, Gold eyes more gains with the four-hourly RSI still within the bullish zone.

Gold keeps its record-setting rally intact early Wednesday, consolidating near lifetime highs above $3,870 as the United States (US) heads for an imminent government shutdown.

Gold capitalizes on US shutdown, delay in payrolls report

Kicking off the final quarter of 2025 on a bullish note, Gold buyers refuse to give up and flex their muscles as the US government funding expires at 04:00 GMT on Wednesday, with the Republicans and Democrats unlikely to strike a last-minute interim deal.

The last government shutdown stretched from December 22, 2018, to January 25, 2019, lasting 35 days – during US President Donald Trump’s first term.

The immediate effect of a government shutdown will likely be the delay in the monthly labor market report, scheduled for this Friday, which is critical for the markets to gauge whether the US Federal Reserve will remain on track for two additional interest rate cuts this year.

Markets are fully pricing in a 25 basis points (bps) Fed rate cut later this month, the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows.

A likelihood of prolonged uncertainty on the US fiscal and monetary policy front is expected to rattle investors’ confidence in the US assets, including the US Dollar (USD), fuelling an increased rush to safety in the traditional safe haven Gold.

Meanwhile, the Greenback is also reeling from the pain of a mixed reading for the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). The report showed US openings increased marginally by 19,000 in August, while hiring declined, consistent with a softening labor market.

All eyes now remain on the US government shutdown scenario and its likely impact on the broader market sentiment. If a shutdown happens, the US private sector payrolls by the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) will hog the limelight on Wednesday, in the absence of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release this Friday.

The US ISM Manufacturing PMI and speeches from Fed policymakers could also drive the sentiment around Gold price.

Gold price technical analysis: Four-hourly chart

As observed on the four-hour chart, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains within the bullish territory, currently near 68.

Therefore, the leading indicator suggests that Gold still has more room to the upside, and that any dip could be quickly bought in.

However, if buyers refuse to give up, buyers yearn for acceptance above the $3,870 level on a daily closing basis to resume the bullish momentum.

The next topside hurdle is located at the $3,900 barrier as the hunt for the $4,000 mark remains on the radar.  

Conversely, any retracement pullback could test the initial support at $3,806, the 21-Simple Moving Average (SMA), below which the 50-SMA at $3,763 would be tested.

Deeper correction could target the September 24 low at $3,718, followed by the 100-SMA at $3,708.

ABCD Pattern and Key Pivot Levels

While strength has been confirmed, natural gas now confronts a decision zone. The ABCD measured move symmetry between the rising AB and CD legs aligns with the 100% projected target at $3.34. This creates the possibility of a pivot and pullback, especially since a lower gap remains unfilled and the market has yet to revisit the 20-Day and 50-Day moving averages for support. These moving averages, converging near $3.00, represent important levels to watch if selling pressure emerges.

Path Toward 200-Day Average

A strong daily close above today’s high could open the door to higher levels. The next upside zone lies near the 200-Day moving average at $3.49, reinforced by the 127.2% ABCD projection at $3.50. The overlap of multiple indicators at this level strengthens its potential importance as resistance. Before that target is reached, however, natural gas must break decisively above a descending trendline, a move that would further confirm strengthening demand.

Outlook

The interaction with the long-term uptrend line has turned into a bullish signal. A sustained close above the 200-Day average would mark a significant shift in trend dynamics and encourage further bullish momentum. Until then, the $3.25 level serves as immediate support, while the $3.34–$3.35 area defines the near-term decision point for traders.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

WTI (CL=F) and Brent (BZ=F) Under Pressure After Saudi Signals Supply Hike

Crude benchmarks are retreating sharply, with West Texas Intermediate sliding 2.82% to $61.69 per barrel and Brent down 2.48% to $65.33. The drop was ignited by reports that Saudi Arabia is pressing OPEC+ ministers to accelerate the reinstatement of 1.66 million barrels per day of supply that had been cut under voluntary quotas. This proposal, now expected to dominate the upcoming OPEC+ virtual meeting, represents a strategic pivot from defending prices toward reclaiming market share, underscoring Riyadh’s willingness to test downside resilience in the oil market.

Inventory Builds in the U.S. Complicate OPEC+ Narrative

Fresh EIA data showed a 2.4 million barrel build in U.S. commercial crude stockpiles last week, defying expectations of a draw and amplifying pressure on prices. Refineries moving into seasonal maintenance reduced throughput, aggravating the supply overhang. Gasoline prices also reflected weakness, down nearly 2.85% to $1.95 per gallon. Together, these figures undermine the short-term bullish case and support the market’s view that a glut may form even if OPEC+ decides not to accelerate its supply hike.

Asia Buys the Dip While India Shifts Crude Mix

Lower prices are stimulating bargain hunting in Asia. Imports across the continent are rising, with India playing a pivotal role. The country’s top refiner, IOC, bypassed U.S. crude at its latest tender, instead securing West African and Middle Eastern barrels. This pivot reflects the narrow arbitrage between WTI and seaborne alternatives but also signals how pricing in Asia can quickly reshape flows. India continues to buy Russian oil aggressively, taking advantage of deepening discounts as Russia struggles with refining outages caused by Ukrainian drone strikes.

Geopolitical and Structural Risks Add Volatility to CL=F and BZ=F

Oil’s weakness is not purely supply-driven. Ongoing geopolitical risk, from Venezuelan military confrontations in the Caribbean to Houthi missile activity near Saudi lanes, is simmering in the background. Yet the overriding narrative is excess supply, not disrupted flows. Analysts warn that if Brent breaks below $65 and WTI under $60, psychological thresholds could fuel momentum selling. ING projects OPEC+ will keep production unchanged, but Saxo Bank highlights a “floor” around current prices, arguing that disruptions in Iraq and Kazakhstan—both exceeding quotas—could cap downside. Still, Saudi Arabia’s push suggests the kingdom sees current demand elasticity as too fragile to support a rally, particularly with Chinese demand showing signs of slowing.

Medium-Term Outlook and Investment Implications

With OPEC+ having already unwound 2.2 million barrels per day of cuts this year, the market is now staring at the potential of another rapid flood of supply. The result is a widening consensus that oil could revisit levels not seen since 2021. Traders are now debating whether CL=F will retest $60, a level that could trigger U.S. shale producers to reconsider drilling programs, or whether Brent (BZ=F) stabilizes near $65 with support from Asian imports. For investors, the equation is clear: while supply-driven weakness creates a bearish short-term setup, any reversal in OPEC+ policy or geopolitical flare-up could flip sentiment instantly.

That’s TradingNEWS

• Gold breaks above $3,800, fulfilling forecasts and setting fresh all-time highs.
• Fed cuts, central bank buying, and ETF inflows drive momentum as safe-haven demand grows.
• Technical roadmap eyes $3,880–$3,900, with $3,825–$3,835 FVG and $3,800 as critical support.

Gold rally materializes: From forecast to reality

In last week’s forecast, we outlined the potential for gold to break above $3,800 once buyers defended the $3,791–$3,758 Fair Value Gap. That roadmap has now unfolded: XAU/USD surged decisively to fresh all-time highs, confirming the bullish structure that had been building.

The breakout was also highlighted in our recent YouTube market update, where we anticipated the conditions for gold’s upside momentum. That projection has since been validated in price action, with gold bulls taking full control.

Fed policy tailwind: Lower yields, higher Gold

The Federal Reserve’s latest 25 bps rate cut has once again reduced real yields, directly fueling gold’s rise. Investors are no longer just pricing in the cut itself—they’re positioning for a series of further adjustments into year-end. This repricing of U.S. interest rate expectations has made non-yielding assets like gold more attractive.

What makes this policy tailwind more powerful is the Fed’s balance of language: while acknowledging inflation risks, officials have been forced to weigh a slowing labor market and softer business activity. Markets are leaning toward at least two more cuts before December, leaving gold well-supported on dips.

Why Gold is breaking all-time highs

Gold’s surge into record territory is not a short-lived anomaly—it’s the culmination of several converging forces:

• Erosion of Real Yields – Each Fed rate cut chips away at real returns on U.S. assets, lifting gold as an alternative store of value.
• Structural Buying From Central Banks – Heavy purchases from China, India, and emerging markets highlight a global diversification away from the U.S. dollar.
• ETF & Institutional Flows – Record inflows into gold-backed ETFs indicate growing conviction from funds and asset managers.
• Geopolitical Tensions – Middle East conflicts, U.S.–China tariff disputes, and cyber risk events sustain gold’s safe-haven role.
• Dollar Weakness Rotation – As investors reprice the U.S. rate path, capital shifts away from the dollar into tangible hedges like bullion.

Combined, these forces have built the perfect backdrop for gold’s historic breakout—fueling momentum not just from speculators, but also from long-term strategic buyers.

Why Gold favors a bullish bias over shorts

Gold’s underlying structure and demand profile tilt decisively toward the upside, making bullish setups far more favorable than shorting attempts:

• Structural Demand – Central banks remain net buyers, cushioning dips.
• Policy Environment – Fed easing historically aligns with strong gold rallies.
• Safe-Haven Flows – Risk events continue to attract capital into bullion.
• Price Action – Every new high has historically been followed by further extensions, not sustained reversals.

Short plays may exist tactically in overheated conditions, but the macro and structural landscape continues to favor the bulls.

Technical outlook: Gold (XAU/USD)

Gold has confirmed its breakout above $3,800, with momentum carrying price to fresh highs near $3,860. On the H4 chart, price action shows a clean displacement to the upside, leaving behind a Fair Value Gap (FVG) around $3,825–$3,835 that now acts as immediate demand. This gap, alongside the $3,800 breakout level, forms the first line of defense for bulls.

Bullish scenario: Retest and continuation

Gold’s breakout above $3,800 has left behind an H4 Fair Value Gap at $3,825–$3,835, which now acts as a potential springboard for further upside. If price pulls back into this zone and finds support, buyers are likely to step back in with conviction.

• Holding above this FVG confirms bullish order flow, keeping buyers in control.
• Upside targets: $3,880 first, followed by the $3,900 psychological milestone if momentum extends.
• The bullish narrative remains intact as long as $3,800 holds as support.

Bearish scenario: FVG rejection and breakdown

If the H4 Fair Value Gap at $3,825–$3,835 fails to attract strong buyers, gold risks turning lower in a corrective phase. A clean rejection from this zone would indicate sellers are defending premium pricing after the breakout.

• Failure to hold the FVG drags price back to retest $3,800.
• A decisive breakdown below $3,800 flips the breakout level into resistance.
• Downside targets open at $3,770 → $3,740, where deeper liquidity sits.

Conclusion

Gold has delivered exactly as forecasted—breaking through $3,800 and setting new records. With Fed policy acting as a steady tailwind, structural central bank demand, and persistent safe-haven flows, the metal’s bullish case far outweighs any shorting attempts. Unless a hawkish Fed shock emerges or inflation data flips the script, the path of least resistance remains upward.

The EURJPY pair activated with stochastic intraday negativity, to keep its stability below the barrier at 175.20, providing correctional trading by reaching 174.00.

Note that the current decline will not affect the bullish scenario due to the stability of the extra support at 173.40, therefore, we will keep waiting for gaining the positive momentum to ease the mission of surpassing the barrier and targeting new positive stations that might extend to 175.60 and 176.00, while breaking the extra support will confirm its surrender to the bearish correctional track, forcing it to suffer extra losses by reaching 172.60.

The expected trading range for today is between 173.65 and 174.85

Trend forecast: Fluctuated within the bullish track