• Gold price gains ground to near $3,750 in Thursday’s early Asian session.
• Geopolitical tensions and uncertainty boost the safe-haven flows. 
• Fed Powell’s cautious remarks on potential interest rate cuts might cap the Gold’s upside. 

Gold price (XAU/USD) trades in positive territory around $3,750 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The precious metal edges higher amid expectations of further US rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed) this year and persistent geopolitical risks.

The Fed cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) at its September meeting, bringing the Federal Funds Rate to a target range of 4.00% to 4.25%. A Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), or ‘dot-plot’, showed that the median Fed policymakers expect two more rate reductions before the end of 2025, and one more in 2026. Lower interest rates could reduce the opportunity cost of holding Gold, supporting the non-yielding precious metal. 

Furthermore, geopolitical uncertainty boosted demand for safe-haven assets like Gold. NATO warned Russia on Tuesday that it would use “all necessary military and non-military tools” to defend itself as it condemned Moscow for violating Estonian airspace in “a pattern of increasingly irresponsible behaviour”.

On the other hand, cautious remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell about the timing of the next cut in US interest rates might cap the upside for the yellow metal. Powell said on Tuesday that the US central bank would continue to balance concerns over labour market weakness with worries about inflation, while Fed officials took stances on both sides of the monetary policy path divide.

WTI Crude (CL=F) Climbs to $64.77 as Inventory Draws Tighten Supply

Russian Refinery Outages Slash Diesel Exports to Five-Year Low

Russian refining capacity has been heavily disrupted by Ukrainian drone strikes, with Energy Aspects estimating up to 1 million barrels per day knocked offline. OilX and Vortexa project diesel exports this month will slump to their lowest in five years. Moscow has already maintained a gasoline export ban through most of 2025, citing refinery constraints and domestic financing shortages. While diesel exports have not been formally capped, the physical shortfall is tightening European product balances and sustaining crack spreads above seasonal norms. The result is higher margins for refiners globally and a key factor behind Brent’s resilience above $68.

Turkey Signs 20-Year U.S. LNG Pact While Pivoting Away From Russia

Turkey’s state energy firm BOTAS secured a 20-year LNG supply contract with Mercuria, committing to roughly 70 bcm of U.S. LNG through 2045. A separate nine-year agreement with Australia’s Woodside adds 5.8 bcm of LNG starting in 2030. These deals reduce Ankara’s dependence on Russian pipeline flows and set the foundation for Turkey to become a European LNG hub. The shift carries long-term consequences for oil-linked gas pricing, eroding Gazprom’s influence and bolstering U.S. export demand. While LNG is not crude, the pivot reshapes energy flows in Europe and adds to geopolitical pressure on Russian oil exports.

Federal Reserve Commentary Lifts Dollar, Caps Crude Momentum

Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned that U.S. equity valuations appear “fairly highly valued,” pushing the DXY dollar index to 97.30. The stronger dollar normally weighs on crude, but despite the currency move, both WTI and Brent held firm. This highlights how near-term oil price formation is being driven primarily by physical balances and supply disruptions rather than macro sentiment alone. Traders warn, however, that continued dollar strength could limit Brent’s ability to breach $70 convincingly.

Technical Setup Points to Potential Breakout in WTI and Brent

Technically, WTI crude has reclaimed the 50-day EMA at $64.50 and is approaching the $66.00 resistance band. A daily close above $66 could open momentum toward $68, while downside protection sits at $62 and then $60. Brent crude faces a similar setup, with the $69–$70 zone acting as a ceiling. A breakout would clear the way to $72, while $65 remains the critical floor. Indicators confirm improving momentum, with RSI recovering above 50 and MACD signaling a potential bullish crossover.

Geopolitical Overhang: Trump Remarks, Ukraine, and OPEC+ Exports

Geopolitical narratives continue to shape sentiment. President Trump stated at the U.N. that Ukraine’s battlefield performance has “surpassed expectations,” fueling speculation of harsher sanctions on Russian energy. OPEC+ supply is also shifting—Kuwait increased output to 3.2 million barrels per day, its highest in a decade, offsetting some Russian shortfalls. Iraq, too, has been ramping exports as OPEC+ gradually rolls back earlier cuts. This balancing act between OPEC+ increases and Russian constraints defines the push-pull dynamic currently holding crude in the mid-$60s to high-$60s range.

Energy Majors and Infrastructure Investment Signal Long-Term Confidence

Deals across the energy sector reinforce confidence in elevated pricing. Petrobras awarded TechnipFMC subsea contracts worth $75–$250 million to bolster offshore production. Sempra Energy sold a $10 billion infrastructure stake to KKR, while Exxon and Petrobras jointly challenged a $4.6 billion merger in Brazil’s subsea sector. These moves show upstream and midstream players are positioning aggressively for a decade of resilient oil demand, underscoring why crude prices are finding strong structural support despite recessionary concerns.

Buy or Sell? WTI (CL=F) and Brent (BZ=F) Outlook

With WTI at $64.77 and Brent at $69.00, both benchmarks are trading near critical resistance but remain underpinned by inventory draws, delayed Kurdish flows, and Russian export disruptions. Technicals point to upside toward $70–$72 for Brent and $66–$68 for WTI if momentum holds. The downside remains cushioned by $62 support for WTI and $65 for Brent. Considering the tightening fundamentals and geopolitical backdrop, the balance of risk favors a Buy stance on crude benchmarks, with near-term upside stronger than downside risk into October.

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XAU/USD Current price: $3,742.20

• Comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell helped the US Dollar trim part of its losses.
• The United States will release the final estimate of the Q2 Gross Domestic Product on Thursday.
• XAU/USD near-term corrective slide set to continue one below $3,736.00.

Gold prices retreated from record highs on Wednesday, now changing hands near an intraday low of $3,749.63. The US Dollar (USD) found near-term demand as Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell commented on monetary policy on Tuesday. His words had no immediate impact on financial markets, but as investors digested the news, a less dovish monetary policy future for the United States (US) surged.

Chair Powell pretty much reiterated what he said following the September monetary policy announcement, sticking to a cautious approach to future interest rate cuts amid risks of inflation gaining fresh momentum. On the labor market, Powell noted it is less dynamic and “somewhat softer,” but did not sound concerned. These comments followed a row of Fed speakers pledging more aggressive action. As a result, the Greenback recovered on relief.

Focus now shifts to the upcoming US data. The country will release the final estimate of the Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Thursday and updated Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index figures on Friday. Stable growth and easing inflationary pressures would provide additional strength to the Greenback.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The daily chart for the XAU/USD pair shows it trimmed Tuesday’s gains, but also that it holds at the upper end of its weekly range. In the same chart, technical indicators eased, but remain far above their midlines. In fact, the Relative Strength Index heads marginally lower at around 74, still in extreme readings. At the same time, the pair keeps developing above bullish moving averages, with the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) heading firmly south at around $3,617, reflecting the bulls’ dominance.

The near-term picture hints at another leg lower. Technical indicators in the 4-hour chart head south almost vertically, easing from extreme overbought readings and approaching their midlines. A bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) offers immediate support at $3,736.00, while the 100 and 200 SMAs maintain their strong upward slopes far below the shorter one.

Support levels: 3,736.00 3,722.54 3,707.40

Resistance levels: 3,758.80 3,779.15 3,791.00

Natural Gas Price Forecast: NG=F Stabilizes Near $2.85 as LNG Demand Offsets Oversupply

NG=F Holds at $2.858 After Choppy Session

U.S. natural gas futures (NG=F) are trading near $2.858 per MMBtu, up 0.2% intraday, after volatile swings in early New York trade. A pickup in LNG feedgas demand is absorbing some of the selling pressure that followed expectations for another large storage build. Traders are closely watching the rollover to the November contract this Friday, which typically injects seasonal volatility as colder weather demand gets priced in. Despite recent pullbacks, NG=F remains supported by the longer-term uptrend line from February 2024, keeping the market within a technically constructive range.

LNG Flows Back Above 15 Bcf/d as Corpus Christi Expands

Fundamentals showed a notable shift last week with Cheniere Energy’s third liquefaction train at Corpus Christi coming online. That boost pushed LNG feedgas demand above 15 Bcf/d, even with the Cove Point outage curbing volumes. Forecasts now project total LNG flows surpassing 16 Bcf/d later in Q4, particularly as the Golden Pass facility begins to take gas. The return of incremental export demand has limited downside pressure and continues to position LNG as the dominant growth engine for U.S. gas, offsetting record domestic production.

European Gas Prices Ease but Storage Remains Ample

Across the Atlantic, benchmark Dutch TTF contracts fell 1.1% to €31.90/MWh, extending a 5% monthly decline as inventories remain 82% full, well above the EU’s Nov. 1 target. Demand is down nearly 29% year-over-year, reinforcing the view that Europe’s storage safety net will cap upside price risks this winter. Norway’s pipeline exports are rising again after heavy September maintenance, while LNG imports into Northwest Europe remain exceptionally high for the season. These dynamics temper bullish U.S. export expectations in the near term, as Europe looks comfortably supplied.

Geopolitics and Policy Still a Risk Factor

The European Commission recently proposed banning Russian LNG imports by the end of 2026, a year earlier than planned. Analysts at Goldman Sachs argue the ban would have “limited impact” on global gas balances, as Russian cargoes would simply be redirected elsewhere. Still, any acceleration of sanctions could alter flows into Asia or Latin America, reshaping U.S. export competitiveness. At the same time, U.S. gas executives are warning that tariffs on oilfield services equipment are raising costs, complicating drilling programs in the Permian and Haynesville. According to the Dallas Fed energy survey, executives expect Henry Hub to average $3.35 in six months, $3.53 in one year, and $4.50 in five years, highlighting a gradual, policy-sensitive climb.

Technical Picture: Sideways Range but Seasonal Strength Ahead

Technically, NG=F is trapped between $2.820 support and $3.220 resistance, with the market attempting to close the August gap near $2.72. The 50-day EMA is sitting around $3.05, and as long as prices remain above it, short-term bearish attacks appear limited. Traders expect an impulsive jump on the next cold-weather forecast, which could test $3.45, the first resistance level flagged by chartists. Seasonality favors upside into November and December, as heating demand rises and storage withdrawals accelerate.

Regional Spot Prices Highlight Supply Pressure

Spot market data underscores current volatility. El Paso trades at $1.55, Waha at $1.475, and PG&E Citygate slipped $0.245, reflecting localized oversupply and constrained takeaway. Stanfield dropped a sharp $1.305, further signaling regional imbalance. These spot prices remain deeply discounted versus Henry Hub, underscoring that while the futures market holds near $2.85, producers are still facing steep basis differentials in constrained regions.

Long-Term Supply/Demand Balance Still Bullish

The U.S. Natural Gas Supply Association (NGSA) projects consumption to hit record highs this winter, even as production stays near peak levels. The EIA’s forecast sees Henry Hub averaging $3.70 in Q4 and $4.30 by 2026, reflecting steady structural demand growth from LNG and data centers. EQT, the largest U.S. gas producer, reiterated its ambition to reclaim the top spot in output by leveraging LNG-linked sales and power demand, signaling confidence in higher long-term pricing.

Buy, Sell, or Hold on NG=F?

With natural gas futures holding $2.858, a base is forming above the $2.82–$2.85 range. Short-term downside is limited, given LNG flows above 15 Bcf/d and winter demand on the horizon. The wide disconnect between regional spot weakness and benchmark resilience reflects structural LNG demand offsetting oversupply. Given the seasonal cycle, robust export flows, and bullish five-year projections pointing to $4.50/MMBtu, the market favors a Buy stance on NG=F, with near-term upside toward $3.20–$3.45 and medium-term potential at $4.00+ if winter proves colder than average.

That’s TradingNEWS

• Gold ticks down from all-time highs, at $3,790, weighed by a stronger US Dollar.
• Fed Powell affirmed that the central bank will move slowly with rate cuts.
• XAU/USD seems ready for a bearish correction after having rallied 15% from mid-August lows.

Gold is trading with moderate losses on Wednesday, snapping a three-day winning streak amid a somewhat firmer US Dollar. The Precious metal has returned to the $3,760 area, although it remains at a short distance from the $3,791 record high reached on Tuesday.

The US Dollar is drawing some support from Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments on Tuesday, warning against market hopes of a steep monetary easing cycle. Powell reiterated that the Fed is in a challenging position trying to navigate higher inflationary risks and a softening labor market, and that the bank is likely to move slowly on rate cuts.

Technical Analysis: Gold seems ripe for a bearish correction

From a technical perspective, Gold seems ready for a healthy correction, following a nearly 15% rally from mid-August lows. The 4-hour RSI has retreated from overbought levels, and the MACD is crossing below the signal line, suggesting the possibility of a deeper pullback.

Bears, however, will have to push the pair below the intra-day low, at $3,750, and Tuesday’s low, at $3,736. Further down the previous all-time high, in the area of $3,700, would come into focus.

On the upside, Tuesday’s high, at $3,790, and the psychological level at $3,800 are likely to test any potential bullish reaction. Beyond here, the 261.8% Fibonacci retracement of the mid-September pullback, at $3,828, emerges as the next target.

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Euro.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.54%	0.41%	0.52%	0.28%	-0.15%	0.36%	0.46%
EUR	-0.54%		-0.13%	0.00%	-0.26%	-0.68%	-0.18%	-0.08%
GBP	-0.41%	0.13%		0.08%	-0.13%	-0.49%	-0.06%	0.01%
JPY	-0.52%	0.00%	-0.08%		-0.26%	-0.67%	-0.24%	-0.09%
CAD	-0.28%	0.26%	0.13%	0.26%		-0.40%	0.07%	0.19%
AUD	0.15%	0.68%	0.49%	0.67%	0.40%		0.51%	0.62%
NZD	-0.36%	0.18%	0.06%	0.24%	-0.07%	-0.51%		0.13%
CHF	-0.46%	0.08%	-0.01%	0.09%	-0.19%	-0.62%	-0.13%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

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Natural gas price took advantage of the positive momentum that comes from stochastic rally above EMA50 in yesterday’s trading, delaying the negative attack by its stability above $3.050, achieving some gains by its stability near $3.150.

The current rise didn’t affect the main bearish scenario, due to its stability below the main resistance at $2.265, to expect forming sideways trading, then begin forming bearish waves, to press on $2.820 level again, while its success in surpassing the resistance and holding above it will turn the bullish track again, providing strong chance for recording several gains by its rally to $3.450 initially.

The expected trading range for today is between $2.820 and $3.220

Trend forecast: Bearish

The (Brent) price declined in its last intraday trading, gathering the gains of its previous rises, attempting to offload some of its overbought conditions on the relative strength indicators, with the emergence of negative overlapping signals, to gather its positive strength that might help it to recover and rise again, amid the dominance of strong minor bullish wave, taking advantage of the dynamic support that is represented by its trading above EMA50, reinforcing the chances for the price recovery in the upcoming period. 

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• Silver price holds near Tuesday’s 14-year high of $44.47 amid rising Fed rate cut bets.
• CME FedWatch tool indicates nearly a 93% possibility of a Fed rate cut in October.
• Safe-haven Silver receives support from rising geopolitical tensions after NATO vowed a “robust” response to Russian airspace violations.

Silver price (XAG/USD) recovers its daily losses, trading around $44.10 per troy ounce during the European hours on Wednesday. The non-interest-bearing Silver maintains its position near a 14-year high of $44.47, which was reached on Tuesday as traders widely expect a 25-basis-point rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) at its October policy meeting.

The CME FedWatch tool suggests that money markets are currently pricing in nearly a 93% possibility of a Fed rate cut in October, up from 90% a day earlier. Traders will likely observe the upcoming US Q2 Gross Domestic Product Annualized and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, due later in the week.

Safe-haven Silver draws buyers as geopolitical tensions rise, with NATO vowing a “robust” response to Russian airspace violations. Moreover, President Trump warned at the United Nations (UN) General Assembly on Tuesday that the United States (US) is ready to impose a “very strong round of powerful tariffs” if Russia refuses to end the war in Ukraine.

Additionally, Silver found support from strong fundamentals, with tight supply and steady demand from solar, EV, and electronics sectors underpinning prices. India’s silver imports are also set to rise in the coming months, backed by solid investment and industrial demand that has already absorbed last year’s surplus shipments.

Despite the stability of the GBPJPY pair in the last period below the barrier at 200.45, but the continuation of the main indicators’ contradiction that pushed it to form sideways trading by its repeated stability near 199.60.

We will keep waiting for gathering the extra negative momentum, to ease the mission of forming new correctional waves, to target 198.60 level reaching the extra support at 197.80, while breaching the barrier will turn the bullish track back, to begin recording extra gains by its rally towards 200.90 and 201.55.

The expected trading range for today is between 198.60 and 200.40

Trend forecast: Bearish

Natural Gas (NG=F) Anchored at $2.85 as Market Awaits November Contract Shift

U.S. natural gas futures (NG=F) are trading near $2.852 per MMBtu, posting a 1.64% daily gain, yet the contract remains locked in a tight range as traders prepare to roll into November. Price action has been dominated by noise and compressed volatility, with the chart showing a potential retest of the $2.72 gap that formed in late summer. That level is emerging as a pivotal support zone, while resistance continues to cluster at $3.00–$3.10, reinforced by the 50-day EMA. The broader uptrend line that extends back to February 2024 has not yet been broken, maintaining a fragile bullish structure even as sellers test the lower end of the range.

European Gas Prices Hover at €32 With Heavy Storage Cushion

In Europe, Dutch TTF contracts are steady at about €32 per megawatt-hour ($37.75), underpinned by storage levels at 81.6% of capacity across the bloc. Italy’s inventories lead with 91%, France follows at 90.6%, and Germany lags with 76.4%, highlighting regional disparities but still leaving the EU in a comfortable pre-winter position. Analysts note that last winter was the coldest since the war in Ukraine began, which forced significant withdrawals. If the upcoming season mirrors those conditions, inventories could face renewed stress despite their strong starting point.

Speculation Builds on Options Market for 60% European Price Surge

Traders have begun placing bold bets on a sharp rally. Options priced for April–September 2026 settled near €50/MWh ($59), suggesting expectations of a 60% increase compared to spot pricing. Forward contracts for summer 2026 remain lower at €31/MWh ($36.57), signaling the risk premium is concentrated in the winter period. This divergence reflects the market’s view that storage, weather, and competition with Asia could force Europe into costly bidding wars just as stockpiles need to be refilled.

Policy Risks Mount With EU Ban on Russian LNG Brought Forward

The European Union has accelerated its timeline, advancing the full ban on Russian LNG imports to January 2027, one year earlier than previously scheduled. While pipeline gas through Ukraine has already been halted since January 2025, Russia continues to deliver cargoes via Arctic LNG routes, many destined for China, which has already taken six shipments this month despite sanctions pressure. This leaves Europe more reliant on alternative suppliers, particularly the U.S. and Qatar. Washington has promised to expand LNG output and send additional flows to Europe, with new capacity entering service in the next 24 months.

Asian LNG Demand Remains Quiet But Could Rebound With Winter Cold

Weak demand from Asia this summer has allowed Europe to secure an outsized share of American cargoes, cushioning its balance. However, the possibility of another harsh winter combined with an Asian demand resurgence poses a real risk of diverting flows away from Europe. Freight costs between the Gulf Coast and Asia have already risen, tightening arbitrage windows and reshaping trade routes. Should Asian utilities return aggressively, Europe may be forced to pay premiums well above current forward curves to keep inventories stable.

U.S. Demand and Supply Dynamics Show Record Highs Ahead

In the U.S., the Natural Gas Supply Association (NGSA) expects winter demand to climb to a record 115.5 Bcf/d, up 4 Bcf/d year-over-year. Supply is forecast at 108.5 Bcf/d, while Canadian imports add another 6.9 Bcf/d, leaving the market in balance for now. Storage is entering the season at a five-year high, providing a cushion against early cold spells. However, structural demand is shifting — AI data centers and LNG terminals are creating steady baseload consumption. LNG exports, already absorbing a growing share of daily output, could tighten balances further if global spreads widen during the heating season.

Technical Picture Shows Compression Before Breakout

Chart signals indicate natural gas is coiling for a move. The RSI sits near 40, reflecting weakness but also approaching oversold territory. The MACD histogram has flattened, neither confirming bearish continuation nor a bullish turn. Bollinger Bands have narrowed between $2.72 and $3.00, pointing to an imminent breakout. A decisive close below $2.72 could expose lows last seen in early 2024, while recovery above $3.00–$3.10 would open the path to $3.40, where the 200-day EMA converges. Traders see the November contract roll as the likely trigger for volatility expansion.

Energy Equities and Infrastructure Firms React to Gas Volatility

Movements in NG=F are reverberating across related equities. U.S. LNG exporters such as Cheniere Energy (NYSE:LNG) and Tellurian (NYSE:TELL) are closely tied to forward curves, while European majors like Equinor (NYSE:EQNR) benefit from volatility and arbitrage margins. U.S. midstream names with exposure to Gulf Coast export hubs are also trading with heightened correlation to gas futures. Institutional flows into energy-focused ETFs have increased, suggesting investors are positioning for stronger realized margins in 2026 as export volumes rise.

Verdict — NG=F Is a Hold as Market Trades Between $2.72 and $3.10 With Europe Betting on €50/MWh

At $2.85 per MMBtu, natural gas sits between its strongest support at $2.72 and resistance around $3.10. Europe’s spot market stability at €32/MWh masks deeper risks, as option bets are already pricing a surge toward €50/MWh by next summer. With U.S. storage levels strong, production near records, and policy tightening on Russian LNG, the backdrop suggests stability in the near term but volatility premiums growing into 2026. Given the balance of factors — high supply, record demand projections, and structural shifts from AI and LNG — the call remains Hold, with risks skewed toward upside if winter proves harsher than expected.

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