The GBPJPY pair took advantage of the positive factors that ae represented by the positive momentum from the main indicators and forming a new support at 197.45 level, forming a new bullish rally on Friday by achieving the target at 198.85, to face strong challenge by forming extra barriers by 66%Fibonacci correction level.

Stepping above the current barrier is required to resume the bullish attempts, besides providing positive close to reinforce the chances of reaching extra positive stations that might begin at 200.45, while the failure to breach will push it to renew the bearish correctional attempts, which forces it to reach 61.8%Fibonacci correction level at 197.45, and breaking it will extend the losses in the near period to 196.55 and 195.60.

The expected trading range for today is between 198.25 and 200.40

Trend forecast: Bullish

• Gold price edges lower to around $3,390 in Monday’s early Asian session. 
• Rising Fed rate cut expectations might create a tailwind for Gold. 
• China’s central bank extended gold purchases to its ninth straight month in July. 

The Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts some sellers to near $3,390 during the early Asian session on Monday. The precious metal drifts lower amid a modest recovery in the US Dollar (USD). Traders brace for the release of the US inflation report, which is due later on Tuesday. 

A firmer Greenback and a broader risk-on sentiment undermine the USD-denominated commodity price, capping the price below the key psychological barrier at $3,400. Nonetheless, rising bets for a September rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) could provide some support to the non-yielding yellow metal. 

Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said on Saturday that recent weak job data underscores her concerns about labor market fragility and strengthens her confidence in her projection that three interest-rate cuts will likely be appropriate in 2025. Traders are now pricing in nearly an 89% chance of a Fed rate reduction in September, with at least two rate cuts priced in by the end of the year.

Additionally, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) added gold to its reserves in July, its ninth consecutive month of purchases, official data showed on Thursday. This headline might contribute to the precious metal’s upside. “Continued purchases by one of the world’s largest central banks signal strong underlying demand for gold,” said Zain Vawda, analyst at MarketPulse by OANDA.

• XAG/USD up 0.24% on Friday, on track to end week over 3.5% higher.
• Price surged more than 6% since July 31 low at 50-day SMA of $36.20.
• Bullish harami pattern confirmed after breaching July 31 high of $37.26.

Silver Price advances for the fourth time in the week, poised to end above $38.00 a troy ounce and close to weekly highs of $38.50 as traders prepare for the weekend. Broad US Dollar weakness across the board and increasing bets that the Federal Reserve might reduce rates at the September meeting, supported the grey metal advance.

XAG/USD trades with daily gains of 0.24%, set to end the week up by more than 3.50%.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

XAG/USD sits $1.50 shy of resting the yearly high after retreating below the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) to test the 50-day SMA at 36.20 on July 31.

Since then, Silver has rallied more than 6%, sparked by the formation of a ‘bullish harami,’ confirmed by the crucial breach of the July 31 high of $37.26. The grey metal climbed sharply and cleared the 20-day SMA at $38.06, further cementing its upward bias.

However, buyers need to breach the $39.00 so they can test the YTD high of $39.52, before challenging $40.00. On the flip side, although momentum is bullish, confirmed by price action and the Relative Strength Index (RSI), traders could not price out a reversal.

If Silver dives below the 20-day SMA and $38.00, then sellers could pile on to push prices toward $37.00, aimed to test the 50-day SMA at $36.85.

XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily

Friday’s Strength Signals Potential

Friday’s advance to $3,409 positions gold near the top of its symmetrical triangle, formed after a robust rally from the April swing low. The rise from that low to the April high and record high of $3,500, was a $543 move (18.4%). It showcased accelerated bullish momentum before consolidating.

A weekly close above $3,409 would reinforce this strength, keeping the breakout scenario alive. However, failure to sustain above the triangle’s upper trendline could trigger a pullback to test support, maintaining the pattern’s integrity for now. Given the long-term bull trend, the most likely resolution is an eventual upside breakout.

Key Levels to Monitor

The $3,439 level is critical resistance for a triangle breakout, potentially opening the door to a test of the record high at $3,500. A sustained move above $3,500 could drive gold to new trend highs, with a measured move from the July swing low of $3,268 projecting a target of $3,811. Alternatively, using the triangle’s height, a breakout could aim for $3,623.

On the downside, a pullback to the triangle’s lower trendline or support near the 20-day and 50-day moving averages ($3,355 and $3,350, respectively) remains possible. These levels, coinciding with the July low, form a key support zone to watch, plus of course the lower boundary line of the triangle.

Trading Outlook

Traders should focus on the $3,439 resistance level for breakout confirmation. A decisive close above this level signals bullish continuation, targeting $3,500 and potentially $3,623–$3,811, offering swing traders attractive entries. Conversely, a rejection at the triangle’s upper trendline could lead to a pullback toward $3,353–$3,347, where aggressive traders might seek buying opportunities. Short-term traders could fade a failed breakout if prices retreat below $3,409. With gold approaching this critical juncture, the next few sessions will determine whether it breaks out to new highs or consolidates further within the triangle pattern.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

• Silver keeps trading higher, but $38.50 resistance is holding bulls for now.
• Rumours that Governour Waller might be the next Fed Chair have provided some support to the USD.
• On Thursday, St. Louis Fed Governour Bostic said that it is too early to commit to a rate cut in September.

Silver (XAG/USD) is trading higher on Friday and on track for a 3.5% weekly rally from $31.20 lows, but the precious metal is struggling to find acceptance in the upper range of the $38.00s, which might lead to some bearish correction.

The Fundamental background remains favourable, with recent US data putting pressure on the US Dollar to lower interest rates, but comments from St Louis Fed President Raphael Bostic warning about the inflationary impact of Trump’s tariffs have eased hopes of a September cut, providing some support to the US Dollar.

Beyond that, news reports by Bloomberg suggesting that Fed Governor Christopher Waller might have convinced Trump’s team to be the best candidate to replace Jerome Powell as Fed Chairman have been welcomed by the market,  providing some support to the US Dollar.

Markets are hesitant with the Fed in the spotlight

On the other hand, rumours that Stephen Miran will fill Adriana Kugler’s vacancy in the Fed’s Government Board are seen as a move to increase the doves’ side, aiming to bend the bank’s stance towards a more accommodative monetary policy.

 On the macroeconomic front, US Jobless claims rose twice as expected in the last week of July, showing a 226,000 reading from the previous week’s 218,000 claims. These readings exceed investors’ expectations of a moderate increase, to 221,000, and add to the evidence of a weakening labour market.

The US Dollar Index, which measures the Greenback against a basket of the most traded currencies, has depreciated more than 2% from Friday’s highs, but a potential double bottom, at the 98.00 area, and a bullish divergence suggest the possibility of some recovery, which would increase bearish pressure on precious metals.

(This story was corrected on August 8 22, at 08:18 GMT to say that $38.50 is a resistance level, and not support, as previously stated.)

Despite the weakness of copper price’s last trading and its repeated fluctuation near the moving average 55 at $4.4000 level, the overall positive stability within the bullish channel’s levels and by the stability of the extra support near $4.2600, these factors support our bullish suggestion, to keep gathering extra positive momentum, then begin targeting positive stations by $4.6300 and $4.7500.

The risk of changing the main trend by breaking the main support at $4.0500, which forces it to suffer big losses by reaching $3.8700.

The expected trading range for today is between $4.2600 and $4.6300

Trend forecast: Bullish

Platinum price began gathering positive momentum by stochastic stability above 20 level, to notice attacking the barrier at $1342.00, which forms a key for regaining the bullish bias of the current trading.

The contradiction between the moving average 55 with the attempt of regaining the bullish bias makes us monitor the price behavior and wait for the next close to confirm the expected trend of the upcoming trading, as breaching the barrier and holding above $1355.00 will reinforce the chances for achieving several gains that might begin at $1375.00 and $1415.00, while the breach will motivate the bearish correctional track, and there are chance for declining towards $1290.00.

The expected trading range for today is between $1325 and $1342.00

Trend forecast: Neutral

The EURJPY pair leaned clearly above the extra support at 170.45, activating with the main indicators, achieving some gains by its fluctuation above the intraday barrier at 171.90.

Noting that the stability of the trading above 171.90 level is important, to reinforce the chances for resuming the bullish attack, to expect the extension of the trading towards 172.65, then targeting the bullish channel’s resistance at 173.80, while the return below 171.90 will force it to form new bearish correctional trading before resuming the suggested targets.

The expected trading range for today is between 171.45 and 172.65

Trend forecast: Bullish

Strong Weekly Bull Trend

The current advance in the price of gold, beginning from the November swing low, shows an acceleration of bullish momentum. This can be seen by the rising slope of the trendlines. That may put the trend at greater risk as momentum becomes less sustainable, but the weekly chart shows the strong trend is intact. The recent decline that generated a new swing low at $3,268 found support and rallied from the 20-Week MA. That was the first test of support at that weekly moving average and gold responded in bullish fashion. A weekly bullish reversal triggered this week, and it will be confirmed on a weekly basis by a weekly close above last week’s high of $3,363.

Resistance or Breakout?

An upside breakout of the triangle is indicated on a decisive rally above the recent swing high at $3,439. That would open the door to a challenge of the trend high at $3,500 and the potential for new record highs. However, given the distance to the apex of the triangle, consolidation could continue before a sustained breakout is attempted.

At the time, a vertical line on the chart shows August 21. That is a visual approximately of when 75% of the triangle has been filled. Typically, a breakout of a triangle will occur before that point is reached. And concurrently, the integrity of the pattern begins to weaken and therefore the potential response to a breakout, either up or down.

Support Zones

A key potential support area to watch would be around the 20-Day and 50-Day MA, currently at $3,353 and $3,347, respectively. Also, consider the possibility of a false breakdown through the bottom boundary line and then a quick recovery and rally.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

XAU/USD Current price: $3,390.12

• The US Dollar remains under selling pressure amid President Trump tariffs threats.
• The Bank of England delivered a hawkish cut, Canadian employment figures next.
• XAU/USD lacks momentum but keeps pushing higher near $3,400.

Gold price remains stable on Thursday, having flirted with the $3,400 mark early in Asian hours but retreating afterwards. The FX board is all about the US Dollar (USD) and United States (US) President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

Late on Wednesday, Trump said he will impose a 100% tariff on imports of semiconductors and chips, but not for companies that are building in the US. Also, he stepped up pressure on Russia, saying he would impose additional 25% levies on Chinese goods over China’s purchases of Russian oil. Earlier in the week, Trump hit India with extra tariffs of up to 50% for the same reason. Trump also threatened additional 15% levies on Japanese imports.

Other than that, the Bank of England (BoE) announced its decision on monetary policy. As widely anticipated, the central bank delivered a 25-basis-point (bp) cut, leaving the benchmark interest rate at 4.0%. The decision, however, was considered hawkish, as four out of nine Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members opted for a no-change. Additionally, one of the cut voters preferred a 50 bps trim. The central bank repeated that it will maintain a gradual and careful approach to further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint.

On Friday, Canada will publish its monthly employment report, expected to show the country added 13.5K new jobs in July. The Unemployment Rate is foreseen ticking higher to 7% from the current 6.9%.

Federal Reserve (Fed) speakers will also gather attention amid mounting speculation that the central bank may trim interest rates in September.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

XAU/USD resumed its advance after the US opening and trades at around $3,390 a troy ounce. The daily chart shows gold surpassed its previous weekly peak, but there was no major breakout, with the pair still struggling to extend gains. A mildly bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) keeps acting as dynamic support at around $3,350, while the 100 and 200 SMAs maintain their upward slopes below the shorter one, supportive of a bullish extension. Finally, technical indicators turned marginally higher within positive levels, skewing the risk to the upside despite lacking momentum.

Bulls are in charge in the near term. The XAU/USD pair 4-hour chart shows technical indicators resumed their advances within positive levels, while buyers keep defending the downside around a bullish 20 SMA now at $3,374.50. The longer moving averages remain flat below the shorter one, failing to provide clear directional clues. The XAU/USD needs to run past $3,407 and settle above the level to be able to extend gains heading into the weekly close.

Support levels: 3,374.50 3,350.00 3.338.60

Resistance levels: 3,407.75 3,420.10 3,414.65