Goldman Sachs GS has raised its December Brent crude forecast to $85 a barrel as persistent energy-supply disruptions push inflation expectations higher across Asia. Yet the call carries an important twist for investors: with Brent recently trading around $100 and the supplied market snapshot showing roughly $107, Goldman’s higher forecast still implies a significant retreat from current levels, suggesting the bank expects geopolitical risk premiums to fade rather than oil’s latest surge to persist.
The forecast adjustment follows months of disrupted Middle East supplies and restricted flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which have left energy-importing Asian economies particularly exposed. Recent Brent prices have remained near $100 even as Saudi exports improved and diplomatic developments briefly eased supply fears.
Goldman expects higher energy costs to show up more clearly in September import and producer prices across Asia-Pacific economies. Consumer inflation should see a smaller immediate impact because subsidies and regulated prices in several countries cushion households from the full increase.
Still, the inflation backdrop has deteriorated substantially. Before the Iran conflict, inflation in many regional economies was at or below central-bank targets. Headline and core readings are now generally at or above those targets, according to Goldman.
Refined fuels are adding pressure even without crude returning to its earlier peak. LNG and diesel prices have reached fresh 2026 highs, while the pass-through into regional core inflation has so far remained relatively limited.
Goldman expects particularly stronger-than-consensus 2027 inflation in India and Malaysia, while its forecasts sit further below consensus in Japan, Vietnam and the Philippines.
Investor Takeaway
The biggest investor implication is that $85 Brent does not represent a bullish call from current prices. It represents Goldman raising the level at which it expects oil eventually to settle.
Investors should watch Hormuz flows, Saudi supply restoration and refined-product prices. Saudi Arabia has restarted its East-West pipeline, but full capacity could take weeks to recover.
If supply normalizes, Brent could move toward Goldman’s forecast and ease inflation pressure. Persistent disruptions would instead keep oil elevated, complicating central-bank easing and putting further pressure on energy-importing economies and rate-sensitive assets.
