Despite the strong negative pressure on coffee prices due to its stability below the support of the broken minor channel’s support at 311.00 besides providing negative momentum by the main indicators, but its stability above the support base at 276.70 supports the chances for forming bullish waves, to fluctuate near 297.50.
Stochastic attempt to provide positive momentum that will increase the chances for targeting 311.00 level, surpassing it is important for regaining the bullish bias, then begin recording several gains by its rally to 328.00.
The expected trading range for today is between 284.00 and 311.00
Until gold breaks out of the triangle consolidation pattern, it will be trading inside the range. Since the range has been narrowing volatility has been declining. This can also be observed by the convergence of the two moving averages. That may be a clue that a potential spike in volatility is getting closer. The pattern is within a bull trend and near the top of the trend. Therefore, the expectation is for a bull breakout unless there are signs of pattern failure.
Notice that the pattern is an expansion of an original symmetrical triangle that is marked by dotted trendlines. Even though the earlier and smaller triangle had false breakouts, it is not unusual for a consolidation pattern to expand or evolve into another pattern. That doesn’t invalidate the current pattern.
Rising to Top of Pattern
Today’s bullish price action shows a continuation of an advance that targets the upper boundary of triangle. Key support would then be around the two moving averages and of course the price they represent will change. A triangle breakout is first indicated on a rise above the most recent swing high of $3,439 and further on a move above $3,451. Both price levels are also prior monthly highs and therefore a monthly breakout will also occur.
Breakout Above $3,439
An initial new high target zone is indicated from around $3,3578 to $3,603 if a bullish breakout is sustained. Given the narrowing of the price range over several months, an upside breakout should be accompanied by a spike in momentum. If not, it could be a warning sign, as seen with the earlier and smaller triangle breakout.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
Can Hotter Forecasts from NatGasWeather Spark a Rally?
Weather remains a pivotal factor. According to NatGasWeather, U.S. demand is expected to be moderate through Thursday before a hotter pattern emerges. Highs in the mid-80s to 100s across much of the country are forecast for late this week and into next, potentially boosting cooling demand.
However, current conditions remain milder than ideal for strong rally attempts. Traders are weighing whether this upcoming heat will be enough to sustain prices above the psychological $3.00 level, especially with robust supplies still in play.
Production and Storage Oversupply Continue to Undermine Bulls
Monday’s selloff — a 15.1-cent drop to $2.932 — was fueled by a mix of bearish fundamentals. U.S. dry gas production hit 108.1 Bcf/d Monday, up 3.5% year-over-year, while demand fell 8% to 74.2 Bcf/d, according to BNEF.
Storage is another headwind: the latest EIA report showed a +48 Bcf injection, outpacing the five-year average of +24 Bcf, and pushing inventories to 6.7% above seasonal norms. The fall shoulder season also looms, historically a soft period for demand.
Baker Hughes Rig Count and LNG Exports Send Mixed Signals
The Baker Hughes rig count adds further pressure, with gas rigs rising by two to 124 — the highest in two years — signaling continued production strength. At the same time, LNG export flows remain elevated at 15.3 Bcf/d, up 6.8% week-over-week, offering some relief to domestic balances.
Meanwhile, Edison Electric Institute data showed an 8.1% year-over-year increase in power generation for the week ending July 26, potentially supporting incremental gas burn for utilities.
Notice that a downward sloping consolidation pattern formed recently, showing a small descending channel. Given its location further into a downtrend and at a key long-term support zone, this pattern might have an impact like a bullish falling wedge. It is too early to say but something to watch as it could help identify a potential bullish reversal signal. Currently, a bullish reversal would be indicated on a rally above Friday’s high of $3.13. While a rise above Monday’s high of $3.08 will show strength, not enough to indicate that the advance might be sustainable.
Price Will Show the Way
The more fight there is between buyers and sellers near the bottom, the greater the potential for a reversal when it comes. Although there are lower targets for natural gas that might be reached, if a low was going to be established, it is in the area to do it. The AVWAP line shows $2.97, and it should be seen as an area of price. If a bullish reversal follows before a new trend low, then a new high swing low will be completed. That would be a bullish sign if it occurs.
AVWAP Has a History of Support
A swing low from April at $2.86 found support and reversed from the AVWAP line. That low is also a monthly low and confirmed by a 20-Month MA, now at $2.85. Therefore, it is potentially significant, either for a bullish reversal or a breakdown. Either way, if $2.86 is approached, a breakdown from two long-term trend indicators will be violated. That would indicate the potential for further downward pressure in prices.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
US President Donald Trump threatened the EU after announcing a deal on Monday.
The US ISM Services Purchasing Managers’ Index contracted to 50.1 in June.
XAU/USD is bullish in the near term, but still needs to conquer $3,400.
Gold price maintains its positive momentum on Wednesday, reaching a fresh weekly high in the $3,390 area during American trading hours. The bright metal surged following the release of the United States (US) ISM Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), as the indicator came in worse than anticipated, barely printing at 50.1 in July, below the 50.8 posted in June and missing expectations of 51.5.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump threatens tariffs left and right: following news on Monday indicating massive levies on India, Trump said it would hit the Eurozone with tariffs of 35% if they fail to fulfil their commitments.
Additionally, the personal war between the US President and Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell continues. On the one hand, he said that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is not a candidate to lead the Fed, as he should remain in his current position. On the other hand, he is working on replacing Fed Governor Adriana Kugler, who unexpectedly resigned, effective on Friday, with a candidate who advocates for interest rate cuts.
The poor performance of Wall Street following dismal US data and higher US Treasury yields reflects the souring mood.
The American macroeconomic calendar has little to offer on Wednesday, while the upcoming Asian session will bring the New Zealand monthly employment report. Later in the day, the EU will publish June Retail Sales.
XAU/USD short-term technical outlook
The daily chart for the XAU/USD pair shows it met buyers around a mildly bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) for a second consecutive day, with the indicator currently at around $3,347. The same chart shows the 100 and 200 SMAs maintain their bullish slopes below the shorter one, in line with the bulls’ dominance. Technical indicators, however, barely hold above their midlines, lacking directional strength. Overall, the risk skews to the upside, but the momentum is missing.
The near-term picture seems more encouraging for bulls. In the 4-hour chart, the XAU/USD pair bottomed around a flat 100 SMA, while a bullish 20 SMA aims to cross above it, usually a sign of directional continuation. Finally, technical indicators resumed their advances near overbought readings, hinting at persistent upward pressure.
Platinum price formed some bullish waves, to hit $1355.00 level, to bounce quickly to settle below the barrier at $1342.00 level, affected by stochastic negativity, which approaches from 50 level as appears in the above image.
The stability of this barrier will force the price to delay the bullish attempts, to increase the chances for forming new bearish correctional waves to target $1290.00 level reaching 38.2%Fibonacci correction level at $1255.00, while breaching it will open the way for activating the bullish attack to target $1366.00 level initially reaching the resistance at $1400.00.
The expected trading range for today is between $1290.00 and $1342.00
Gold price looks to extend the recovery into its fourth straight day on Tuesday.
The US Dollar remains vulnerable amid increased rate cut bets, tariffs and Fed concerns.
Gold price must close Tuesday above the key $3,380 resistance as the daily RSI stays bullish.
Gold price is flirting with weekly highs near $3,380 in the Asian trading hours on Tuesday, with buyers looking forward to the US ISM Services PMI data for a fresh boost.
Gold price looks north amid dovish Fed expectations
A surprisingly strong China’s Caixin Services PMI data, which came in at 52.6 in July, bolstered risk appetite.
Meanwhile, increased bets that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will lower interest rates in September continue to underpin risk sentiment at the expense of the US Dollar (USD), keeping the non-yielding Gold price afloat.
Strong US labor data combined with San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly’s dovish remarks have almost sealed in a September Fed rate cut, with markets now pricing in a 90.5% probability of such a move, the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported Friday that the US economy added 73,000 jobs for July, above the June revision of 14,000 but below even the meagre estimate for a gain of 110,000. The Unemployment Rate ticked higher to 4.2% in the month, as expected.
Daly said on Monday, “we may do fewer than two cuts. The more likely thing is we need to do more.
“The job market is not precariously weak, but it is softening, and further softening would be unwelcome,” she added.
Additionally, concerns over the Fed’s independence and the credibility of economic data remain a drag on the Greenback.
US President Donald Trump fired the US Labor Department’s statistical leader, Erika L. McEntarfer, after the weak jobs report on Friday.
Markets believe that the dismissal of BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer may be part of a broader strategy to undermine the credibility of official inflation data, eventually impacting the Fed’s independence.
These factors render positive for the bright metal, supporting its recovery from monthly troughs.
The next leg higher in Gold price, however, depends on the US ISM Services PMI data for July, which is seen rising to 51.5 from 50.8 in June.
Strong ISM data could shake off some of the recent dovishness surrounding the Fed’s next policy, lifting the USD while fuelling a brief corrective decline in Gold price.
A slowdown in the services sector could intensify concerns over the US economic resilience amid weakening labor market conditions, which could trigger a fresh USD downtrend, boosting the bullion.
Gold traders will also closely scrutinize trade headlines and Fedspeak for fresh trading incentives.
Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart
The daily chart shows that the technical setup remains in favor of Gold buyers.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is sitting above the midline, currently near 55, suggesting that any dip could be quickly bought into.
Adding credence to the bullish potential, the 21-day is primed to cross the 50-day SMA for upside, which if materialized on a daily closing basis will confirm a Bull Cross.
Gold buyers need a daily candlestick closing above the rising trendline support at $3,380 to regain the $3,400 threshold. Further, the $3,440 static resistance will come into play once again.
Conversely, strong support is placed at the 21-day SMA and 50-day SMA confluence near $3,345. A sustained move below that level will open up further downside toward the $3,300 round figure. The last line of defense for Gold buyers is the 100-day SMA at $3,279.
Economic Indicator
ISM Services PMI
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis, is a leading indicator gauging business activity in the US services sector, which makes up most of the economy. The indicator is obtained from a survey of supply executives across the US based on information they have collected within their respective organizations. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the services economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the US Dollar (USD). A reading below 50 signals that services sector activity is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for USD.
The GBPCHF price formed some bullish correctional trading, to approach from the moving average of 55 near 1.0765, taking advantage of providing positive momentum by stochastic, to retest an important barrier again.
The main stability within the bearish channel’s levels, which forms an extension for the main resistance at 1.0810 level besides forming an extra barrier at 1.0775 level, these factors make us wait for gathering the negative momentum, which allows it to renew the negative attempts that might target 1.0710 and 1.0660.
The expected trading range for today is between 1.0770 and 1.0710
Copper price forced to provide more of the sideways trading, delaying its bullish attempts due to the contradiction between the main indicators by stochastic reach below 50 level, the main stability above the bullish channel’s support at $4.0500, besides the attempt of forming an extra support at $4.2600 level, we will keep our bullish suggestion in the current period trading, to wait for achieving some gains by its rally to $4.6300 reaching the next barrier near $4.7500.
Note that breaking the extra support will confirm the chances for providing strong pressure on the mentioned bullish channel’s support, to keep monitoring the price behavior according to this level by detecting the main trend in the upcoming period trading.
The expected trading range for today is between $4.2600 and $4.6300
Platinum price formed some bullish waves, to hit $1355.00 level, to bounce quickly to settle below the barrier at $1342.00 level, affected by stochastic negativity, which approaches from 50 level as appears in the above image.
The stability of this barrier will force the price to delay the bullish attempts, to increase the chances for forming new bearish correctional waves to target $1290.00 level reaching 38.2%Fibonacci correction level at $1255.00, while breaching it will open the way for activating the bullish attack to target $1366.00 level initially reaching the resistance at $1400.00.
The expected trading range for today is between $1290.00 and $1342.00
