Monthly Bear Trigger

Furthermore, a bearish monthly breakdown (not shown) triggered today as last month’s low of $2.97 was breached. That put natural gas at four-month low and falling. Prior monthly support was seen at the $2.86 low in April, and it looks likely to be challenged if downward pressure remains. That is a five-month low. The trajectory of the current decline also looks like it may be heading to a test of support around the 20-Month MA, now at $2.85. Since the two price levels are so close together, that price zone deserves particular attention, if it is approached.

Symmetry Points to $2.63

In addition, there is an initial target for a falling ABCD pattern (purple) at $2.63. That is where there will be symmetry in price compared to the first leg down (AB). Once that occurs a key potential pivot is identified. Finally, there is a second 78.6% retracement level, a little lower at $2.53. It measures a larger upswing than the prior 78.6% level.

Fast Recovery Could Change Bearish Outlook

An alternative to the above bearish scenario would be a relatively quick recovery of the AVWAP line and a daily close above it. That should then be followed by a recovery of the long-term uptrend line and a close above it, as well as above the prior trend low at $2.97. A bearish closing price today, in the lower third of the day’s range, keeps the sellers in charge and the lower price targets in sight.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

XAU/USD Current price: $3,371.67

• United States President Donald Trump threatens additional tariffs on India.
• The ISM Services PMI is expected to have improved in July to 51.5.
• XAU/USD aims to extend its advance, yet lacks enough momentum.

Spot Gold extended its Friday recovery, peaking at $3,385.41 after Wall Street’s opening. The US Dollar (USD) maintained the sour tone triggered by dismal United States (US) employment-related data, which fueled hopes the Federal Reserve (Fed) could trim the benchmark interest rate when it meets in September.

Additionally, US President Donald Trump announced it will “substantially” raise tariffs on India amid the latter buying Russian oil and selling it into the Open Market, according to a post shared in Truth Social. Earlier in the day, Trump claimed the July Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) was rigged, to make “a great Republican Success look less stellar!!!,” once again, subtly threatening to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

Data-wise, the US reported that June Factory Orders shrank by 4.8% slightly better than the 4.9% decline anticipated, although much worse than the May 8.3% advance. Other than that, financial markets seem to have finished digesting the poor employment report, with global stocks turning green.

The focus on Tuesday will be on the US ISM Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). The index is foreseen at 51.5 in July, improving from the 50.8 posted in June.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The daily chart for XAU/USD shows bulls hold the grip, but lack conviction. Gold trades above all its moving averages, with a flat 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) providing intraday support at around $3,345. The 100 and 200 SMAs, in the meantime, maintain their upward slopes below the shorter one. Technical indicators, however, have lost their bullish strength within neutral levels, barely holding above their midlines.

The XAU/USD pair trades well above all its moving averages in the 4-hour chart, with a bullish 20 SMA advancing below directionless 100 and 200 SMAs. Technical indicators, in the meantime, have lost their upward strength, but hold near overbought readings. The 100 SMA, in the meantime, lies at around $3,348, reinforcing the support area.

Support levels: 3,362.10 3,345.00 3.338.60

Resistance levels: 3,385.20 3,396.90 3,407.75

• Silver kicks off the new week on a softer note amid the emergence of some USD buying.
• The technical setup favors bearish traders and backs the case for a further depreciation.
• Any attempted recovery beyond the 200-period SMA on the H4 is likely to get sold into.

Silver (XAG/USD) struggles to capitalize on Friday’s modest recovery gains and oscillates in a range at the start of a new week as softer US NFP-inspired US Dollar (USD) selling now seems to have abated. The white metal currently trades around the $37.00 mark and remains within striking distance of a four-week low touched last Thursday.

From a technical perspective, this week’s breakdown below a nearly two-month-old ascending channel support, which coincided with the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, was seen as a key trigger for the XAG/USD bears. This, along with negative oscillators on daily/4-hour charts, suggests that the path of least resistance for the commodity remains to the downside.

Hence, any subsequent recovery is more likely to confront a stiff barrier near the $37.35 region (200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart). This is followed by the ascending channel support breakpoint, around the $37.60 region, which should act as a pivotal point, which, if cleared, might trigger a short-covering rally and allow the XAG/USD to climb to the $38.00 mark en route to the $38.30-$38.35 region.

On the flip side, the multi-week low, around the $36.20 area, now seems to protect the immediate downside ahead of the $36.00 round figure. Some follow-through selling will reaffirm the negative bias and drag the XAG/USD to the next relevant support near the $35.50 zone. The downward trajectory could extend further towards challenging the $35.00 psychological mark.

XAG/USD 4-hour chart

• Gold price drifts lower to near $3,360 in Monday’s early Asian session. 
• The recovery in the USD weighs on the precious metal.
• Weaker US NFP and tariff fears could boost safe-haven assets like the Gold price. 

The Gold price (XAU/USD) edges lower to around $3,360, snapping the two-day winning streak during the early Asian session on Monday. Nonetheless, weak US job data and tariff fears might weigh on the US Dollar (USD) and help limit the USD-denominated commodity’s losses. 

The yellow metal loses traction due to the rebound in the Greenback. The potential upside for Gold might be limited as an underwhelming US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data boosted expectations of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut. 

The US NFP rose by 73,000 in July, versus a 14,000 increase (revised from 147,000) prior, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revealed on Friday. This figure came in below the market consensus of 110,000. Meanwhile, the US Unemployment Rate ticked higher to 4.2% in July from 4.1% in June, as expected.

“Payrolls numbers came in below expectations, but a little higher than the market was printing. So, this gives a better probability that the Federal Reserve will cut (rates) later in the year,” said Bart Melek, head of commodity strategies at TD Securities.

Furthermore, fresh tariff announcements and uncertainty over US trade policies spur safe-haven demand. On Friday, US President Donald Trump hit many countries with new levies, causing shock and confusion. Investors will closely monitor the developments surrounding US tariffs announcement. 

Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney will likely talk “over the next number of days” after the U.S. imposed a 35% tariff on goods not covered by the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement. Tariff pause extension between the US and China, the world’s two largest economies, will also be closely watched. Any signs of renewed trade tensions could boost the precious metal. 

The GBPJPY pair didn’t settle above the support of the minor bullish channel at 198.70, forcing it to suffer deep losses by its decline to 195.35, facing the moving average 55 that supports the stability of 78.2%Fibonacci correction level as appears in the above image.

Noticing the beginning of forming bullish waves since this morning, but it couldn’t regain the bullish bias until surpassing the obstacle at 196.60, which allows it to resume the rise and achieve extra gains that might extend to 197.05 and 197.40, while the decline below 195.35 and holding below it will confirm its surrender to the bearish bias domination, which forces it to suffer extra losses by reaching 194.55.

The expected trading range for today is between 195.70 and 196.90

Trend forecast: Bullish

The (silver) price rose in its last intraday trading, but it remains under the dominance of the bearish correctional trend on the short-term basis, with the continuation of its trading alongside a bias line that indicates the negative pressures, and its stability below EMA50 reinforces this pressure and limits the strength of the current rise.

The (RSI) began showing negative overlapping signals after reaching overbought levels, indicating the weakness of the positive momentum and a potential return to the selling pressure on the near-term basis unless they breached the resistance levels.

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Platinum price ended its last bearish correctional attack by hitting $1260.40 level, approaching from the second correctional target, to notice forming some bullish waves, to settle near $1310.00.

Note that the continuation of forming main support at $1245.00 level against the current trading, beside stochastic attempt to provide positive momentum will increase the chances of activating the bullish attempts, to expect its rally towards $1342.00 and surpassing this barrier might extend the trading towards $1383.00, representing the initial main target for the bullish attempts.

The expected trading range for today is between $1270.00 and $1342.00

Trend forecast: Bullish

• Silver is trading around $36.50, down over 4.5% this week after hitting a 14-year high of $39.53 on July 23.
• Price has broken below ascending channel support, signaling fading bullish momentum and is poised for its biggest weekly decline since March.
• Market awaits Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report at 12:30 GMT for fresh direction.

Silver (XAG/USD) continues to struggle under the weight of a stronger US Dollar, extending its decline from the 14-year high of $39.53 reached on July 23. At the time of writing, the white metal is trading near $36.50 during the American trading session, down nearly 4.5% so far this week, with traders turning cautious ahead of Friday’s key US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report at 12:30 GMT.

Technically, on the daily chart, Silver has broken below the ascending channel that had supported its uptrend since early April, marking a clear shift in market structure. This breakdown suggests bullish momentum has faded and a deeper correction may be unfolding. The metal is now hovering just above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $36.54, which acts as immediate support. A daily close below this zone could expose the next key downside target at the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $34.65.

Momentum indicators reinforce the bearish case. On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has slipped to 40, signaling weakening momentum and a slide toward oversold territory. Meanwhile, the MACD has turned negative, with a bearish crossover in place, signaling further downside risks.

Zooming into the 4-hour timeframe, Silver has broken below both the 50-EMA and 100-SMA, underscoring persistent short-term selling pressure. Price is now approaching a key demand zone in the $35.30-$35.70 range, which could offer some near-term support. However, with the 4-hour RSI plunging to oversold levels near 21, a short-term bounce is possible. Still, the MACD remains deep in negative territory, suggesting the broader bias remains tilted to the downside — unless a softer-than-expected NFP print sparks a reversal.

Larger Pennant Triangle Forms

A decisive and sustained breakout above today’s high would put gold back into the pennant formation. Potential support would then be around the moving averages. If this scenario begins to unfold and momentum stays muted, the pennant pattern may be in the process of expanding its footprint as consolidation continues.

This week’s low establishes a higher swing low, which retains the pattern of recent higher swing lows. Moreover, the recent upside breakout of the pattern failed to follow-through and generated a lower swing high. New trendlines have been added to the expanded parameters of the pattern, while the initial boundary lines remain as dotted blue lines.

Breakout Timing Extended

The new territory of the pennant shows that consolidation could continue for another month or so before a decisive breakout from the new parameter’s triggers, given the location of the pennant triangle apex. Key price levels are last week’s lower swing high of $3,349 and this week’s higher swing low at $3,268. Trendlines indicate a narrower price range but are less unreliable as a signal.

Bullish Weekly Pattern

The weekly chart provides supporting evidence that strength could be maintained within the newly formed pennant boundaries. This week’s low found support near the long-term 20-Week MA. It was followed by a rally that looks likely to end the week in the green and near the highs for the week. Unless there is a sharp selloff before the closing of the session, gold will form a bullish hammer candlestick pattern. It is interesting to note that this bullish candlestick pattern will follow last week’s bearish shooting star pattern.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

The U.S. dollar index (DXY) surged to its highest level since May 29, making gold more expensive for non-dollar holders. This currency pressure has reinforced bearish momentum for gold in the short term, with traders cautious following another firm set of U.S. macro readings. The Federal Reserve left its benchmark rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50% on Wednesday and gave no signal for a September rate cut.

Recent U.S. economic data—GDP, jobless claims, and PCE inflation—all supported the Fed’s hawkish hold, reinforcing reluctance to pivot dovishly. “Gold remains weighed by reduced bets for Fed rate cuts for the rest of 2025,” said Han Tan, chief market analyst at Nemo.Money.

Tariff Uncertainty Provides Some Underlying Support

While the macro backdrop leans bearish for gold, geopolitical risks are offering partial support. Former President Donald Trump reintroduced aggressive tariffs targeting Canada, Brazil, India, and Taiwan—moves that could drag on global economic growth and potentially lift safe-haven demand.

June inflation data already reflected early tariff impacts, with price increases on some imported goods. The full economic implications remain unclear, but growing trade tensions could eventually support gold as investors hedge broader global risk.

Physical Demand in Asia Improves but Volatility Keeps Buyers Cautious

Physical gold demand picked up in Asia this week as lower spot prices spurred buying interest, especially from Indian and Chinese markets. However, continued price swings and weak sentiment prevented a stronger rebound in physical flows. With gold hovering below key technical levels, retail interest remains tepid.

Gold Prices Forecast: Short-Term Bearish, Long-Term Bullish Bias Intact