The U.S. dollar index (DXY) surged to its highest level since May 29, making gold more expensive for non-dollar holders. This currency pressure has reinforced bearish momentum for gold in the short term, with traders cautious following another firm set of U.S. macro readings. The Federal Reserve left its benchmark rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50% on Wednesday and gave no signal for a September rate cut.

Recent U.S. economic data—GDP, jobless claims, and PCE inflation—all supported the Fed’s hawkish hold, reinforcing reluctance to pivot dovishly. “Gold remains weighed by reduced bets for Fed rate cuts for the rest of 2025,” said Han Tan, chief market analyst at Nemo.Money.

Tariff Uncertainty Provides Some Underlying Support

While the macro backdrop leans bearish for gold, geopolitical risks are offering partial support. Former President Donald Trump reintroduced aggressive tariffs targeting Canada, Brazil, India, and Taiwan—moves that could drag on global economic growth and potentially lift safe-haven demand.

June inflation data already reflected early tariff impacts, with price increases on some imported goods. The full economic implications remain unclear, but growing trade tensions could eventually support gold as investors hedge broader global risk.

Physical Demand in Asia Improves but Volatility Keeps Buyers Cautious

Physical gold demand picked up in Asia this week as lower spot prices spurred buying interest, especially from Indian and Chinese markets. However, continued price swings and weak sentiment prevented a stronger rebound in physical flows. With gold hovering below key technical levels, retail interest remains tepid.

Gold Prices Forecast: Short-Term Bearish, Long-Term Bullish Bias Intact

Copper price continued to form bearish trading, to reach the target at $4.2600 forming an intraday support against the current trading, despite the main stability within the bullish channel’s levels, the attempt of providing negative momentum from the main indicators that might push the price to press on the current support, while breaking it will extend the losses to $4.1600 reaching the support of the bullish channel at $4.0550.

Reminding you that activating the bullish attack again requires forming several bullish waves, to settle above $4.7400 level, to ease the mission of recording several gains that might begin at $4.9800.

The expected trading range for today is between $4.1600 and $4.6200

Trend forecast: Bearish

Copper price continued to form bearish trading, to reach the target at $4.2600 forming an intraday support against the current trading, despite the main stability within the bullish channel’s levels, the attempt of providing negative momentum from the main indicators that might push the price to press on the current support, while breaking it will extend the losses to $4.1600 reaching the support of the bullish channel at $4.0550.

Reminding you that activating the bullish attack again requires forming several bullish waves, to settle above $4.7400 level, to ease the mission of recording several gains that might begin at $4.9800.

The expected trading range for today is between $4.1600 and $4.6200

Trend forecast: Bearish

Failed Bull Breakout

This week’s drop confirmed a failure of a bull pennant pattern. Since it is a trend continuation pattern, a breakdown shows a weakening of the near-term uptrend and the potential for a correction greater than what was seen most recently. Gold is now below the 50-Day MA, with the 200-Day MA becoming a possibility. The 200-Day line is currently at $3,003.

Target Around $3,072

The first pullback from the $3,500 record high reached in April was an approximate match with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and a successful test of support at the 50-Day MA. A falling ABCD pattern points to a possible minimum downside target of $3,072. That would exceed the 38.2% level at $3,139. Notice that the 50% retracement target is a little lower at $3,041. So, the $3,072 to $3,041 levels can be seen as a potential zone of support.

Bearish Until $3,334 Reclaimed

A sustained rally above $3,334 would be needed before there were signs of a potential failed breakdown. Moreover, moving averages are in the process of confirming bearish indications. Both the 20-Day and 50-Day MA have converged with the trendline at the bottom of the pennant and will be crossing below the line. They also show potentially strong resistance.

Weekly Bearish Confirmation

The weekly chart confirms the bearish potential for gold short-term as a bearish shooting star candlestick pattern triggered earlier in week and led to a four-week low of $3,268. A three-week lower close looks likely this week as the sellers remain in charge on a weekly basis. But on the weekly chart gold is at a potentially significant support level as the low for the week hit the 20-Week MA for the first time since it was reclaimed in January. This is one of the reasons to also consider a bullish scenario regardless of how clear the bearish side looks.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Above $3.19 is Bullish

A decisive rally above today’s high will trigger a one-day bullish reversal, confirmed by a daily close above it. But an advance above the recent lower swing high at $3.19 presents a more reliable level to indicate that demand is improving and may continue. An advance above $3.19 will trigger a bullish reversal of the short-term decline that began from the $3.63 swing high. If triggered, the 20-Day MA, now at $3.29 and falling, is the first upside target and it could easily be surpassed if demand continues to improve.

Second Target 200-Day MA

Subsequently, the area around the 200-Day MA, currently at $3.64, identifies the next upside target. Particularly, given that the 50-Day MA just converged with the 200-Day line and they identify a similar price level as possible resistance. An AVWAP line that began off the April swing low, also shows support around those two lines. Given the confluence of indicators, the price zone could potentially act like a magnet as price is drawn towards it. Nevertheless, it identifies a potentially significant pivot zone, as a decisive rally above it will signal a breakout and further confirm strength.

Long-Term Support Holds

The establishment of support near the long-term trendline shows the possible completion of the bearish correction that began following the trend high of $4.90 in March. Notice that the volatility of the long-term uptrend has been contained within a large rising parallel trend channel (purple).

Resistance was successfully tested multiple times at the beginning of year, eventually leading to a sustained correction. Given the symmetrical nature of the channel, a bounce off one side points to the other side. Once the other side is reached, as happened today with a touch of the bottom of the channel, a move to the other side is possible.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

This ambiguity disappointed markets that had priced in a high probability of monetary easing in the third quarter. As expectations reset, the U.S. Dollar Index jumped over 0.5%, adding further headwinds to precious metals.

Gold Faces Pressure from Strong Economic Data

The ADP National Employment report showed private sector payrolls rose by 324,000 in July, far exceeding forecasts. While some indicators of labor softening linger, the data broadly suggests resilience in the job market.

This strength reinforces the Fed’s wait-and-see stance and weakens the investment case for non-yielding assets like gold.

“Powell is staying the course on inflation even as employment data shows mixed signals,” said Tai Wong, an independent metals trader. “Gold may retrace further, but long-term support remains intact due to macroeconomic uncertainty, rising U.S. debt levels, and de-dollarization trends.”

Silver Extends Losses Amid Risk Reassessment

Silver plunged 3.2%, briefly touching a three-week low as traders digested the Fed’s tone and adjusted for reduced policy easing expectations. The metal, more volatile and industrially sensitive than gold, remains vulnerable to shifts in growth sentiment.

With real yields firming and the dollar gaining strength, both gold and silver face near-term headwinds. However, geopolitical uncertainties and fiscal imbalances continue to offer a supportive backdrop for long-term investors.

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Natural gas price returned to form new negative trading affected by stochastic negativity, providing strong pressures on the critical support at $3.050, which represents the head and shoulders pattern.

Note that breaking the current support will confirm activating the negative pattern, to move to a new negative track, forcing it to suffer several losses by reaching $2.710 and $2.390, for regaining the bullish bias we recommend waiting for providing positive close above $3.320 to ease achieving several gains that might begin at $3.450 and $3.610.

The expected trading range for today is between $2.710 and $3.150.

Trend forecast: Bearish

The EURCAD attempted to regain the bullish bias by its rally above the broken bullish channel’s support at 1.5945 level, achieving some of the gains by its rally to 1.1600, to face a strong rejection due to entering zones of high liquidity absorption, to rebound to the downside strongly towards 1.5775, confirming its exit from the bullish track again.

Forming a strong resistance at 1.5930 level against the current trading and providing negative momentum by stochastic, these factors make us prefer the bearish bias dominance, which might target 1.5660 level, reaching the extra support at 1.5530 level.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.5660 and 1.5860

Trend forecast: Bearish

Copper price is under strong bearish pressure to push it to decline below the support at $5.3200, to lose most of its previous gains to reach $4.3900, to face the moving average of 55.

Despite the main stability within the main bullish channel’s levels, the contradiction between the main indicators may increase the chances for suffering extra losses by targeting 161%Fibonacci extension level at $4.2650, while renewing the bullish attempts requires stepping above $4.7400 level, providing chance for recording gains again.

The expected trading range for today is between $4.2600 and $4.5200

Trend forecast: Fluctuated within the bullish track