The (Brent) price settled with strong gains in its last intraday trading, after breaching the critical resistance at $70.75, supported by its continuous trading above EMA50, and under the dominance of the bullish trend and its trading alongside a minor bias line on the short-term basis, on the other hand, we notice the beginning of negative overlapping signal appearance on the (RSI), after reaching overbought levels, which might reduce the last gains, and it needs to gather gains and gain some bullish momentum.

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Short-term Target Reached

Nonetheless, today’s high of $70.60 was a successful test of resistance around a prior support trendline and it completed the initial target for a rising ABCD pattern. Given the wide trading range for today, a pullback to test support around the 200-Day MA, now at $68.43, would be possible. It can be watched along with a minor swing high of $68.77 for possible support.

Notice that crude oil could continue to rise towards the next higher target zone of $71.73, yet remain below the rising trendline, which is also a lower channel line. That target zone is the confluence of a 50% retracement level and a 127.2% projected ABCD target at $71.84.

Higher Resistance Zone

Since the rally reached a five-week high, there is the potential for higher targets to eventually be approached. The 20-Week MA (not shown) is also providing bullish evidence for further strength. It was essentially a match of trend support that is represented by the 50-Day MA on the daily chart. If crude can retain strength into Friday, it might have its highest weekly closing price in six weeks.

Buyers Return

Nonetheless, it looks like a continuation of strength would be in reaction to the sharp rapid decline from the $78.44 swing high hit five weeks ago. It seems like if correct, a sharp rally into the next higher target zone might be possible. Bullish momentum clearly improved today, and the day’s low was a successful test of support at the 20-Day MA.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Bullish Reversal Signaled

A daily close above Monday’s high of $3.14 will confirm a one-day bullish reversal, while a closing price above Thursday’s high of $3.17 confirms a stronger a three-day reversal. That could establish a sustainable bottom and a higher swing low. Nonetheless, it wouldn’t be surprising to see additional tests of support within a range down to the $2.98 low. The trendline that represents dynamic support for the uptrend will represent a higher price point moving forward.

So, that might indicate support during pullbacks should be seen above Monday’s low as the trendline will be reached before that low. Tuesday’s low of $3.10 is support and a drop below that level could lead to another test of support around the prior trend low of $3.06, or a long-term pivot (dashed), also around $3.10.

20-Day Line Resistance

The initial upside target for natural gas looks to be around the 20-Day MA, now at $3.33. Above there is possible resistance around the 200-Day MA, currently at $3.46. Those two levels can provide a guide if higher prices are approached. If natural gas continues to trade below the 200-Day line, it will face downward pressure. At the same time, a sustained bullish reversal from both support of the long-term trendline and long-term AVWAP support line, is bullish and confirms the integrity of the long-term uptrend.

Below $2.98 Turns Bearish

Regardless of the potential for continued strength, a drop below Monday’s low of $2.98 could see a decline below the AVWAP line. This would likely lead to a test of support around the swing low of $2.86. A little lower is a 78.6% retracement level at $2.79.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

XAU/USD Current price: $3,310.10

• US trade deals and profit taking ahead of first-tier events fueled the US Dollar.
• The Federal Reserve will announce its decision on monetary policy on Wednesday.
• XAU/USD pressures the $3,300 level, aims to break below it.

Spot Gold plunged to $3,301.90 on Monday, as the US Dollar (USD) strengthened across the FX board. The Greenback surged following news that the United States (US) clinched a trade deal with the European Union (EU) while resuming talks with China. On the latter, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said that it is a good sign, yet added he does not expect a breakthrough.

Other than that, profit-taking ahead of multiple central bank announcements and first-tier data releases contributed to the USD’s momentum. The Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce its decision on monetary policy next Wednesday, while the country will release the flash estimate of Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) earlier in the day. The US will also release an updated Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge.

The Fed’s decision will be under scrutiny amid US President Donald Trump’s rage against Chairman Jerome Powell. The Fed is widely anticipated to keep interest rates on hold despite pressure from the White House to lower them. Encouraging growth and inflation figures would back Trump’s case, and add to Powell’s burden.

But is not just the Fed, the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will also announce monetary policy decisions, while other major economies will post updates on growth and inflation.

Meanwhile, global stocks are up, with Wall Street holding on to substantial gains but easing from its pre-opening peaks.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, the daily chart for XAU/USD shows it keeps posting lower lows and lower highs, in line with the ongoing downward trend. The pair has broken below a flat 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), which currently provides dynamic resistance at around $3,345.00. At the same time, the Momentum indicator is flat at around its 100 line, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator anticipates another leg lower by heading firmly south at around 44. A bullish 100 SMA, in the meantime, provides support at around $3,250.

In the 4-hour chart, the XAU/USD is currently below all its moving averages, with an almost vertical 20 SMA about to cross below directionless and converging 100 and 200 SMAs in the $3,350 region. Technical indicators diverge in direction, but remain within negative levels. The Momentum advances amid the bounce from the intraday low, but remains well below its midline, while the RSI indicator maintains the downward pressure near oversold readings, hinting at another leg south.

Support levels: 3,301.90 3,287.30 3,274.05

Resistance levels: 3,325.00 3,345.00 3,361.80

Linde plc’s stock price (LIN) edged slightly lower in latest intraday trading, with negative signals streaming from the Stochastic and ongoing pressure from trading below the 50-day SMA. However, the stock continues to move alongside a short-term upward correctional trend line, and this dip may help it gather positive momentum that could support a potential recovery and relieve the ongoing downside pressure.

Therefore we expect the stock to rise in upcoming trading, but only if it first breaches the resistance level of $471.95, targeting the pivotal resistance of $487.50.

Today’s price forecast: Bullish

Natural gas price formed head and shoulders pattern in its last trading, to keep fluctuating near the neckline level at $3.050 level, forming a significant threat for the upcoming trading, while breaking the neckline and providing negative closes below it, will confirm its move to a new strong bearish station that might push it to suffer deep losses that begin from its reach $2.710 and $2.380.

While the price success to settle above the neckline and its rally in the near period trading above $3.600 will cancel the chances for changing the main bullish track to begin forming strong bullish attack, to target $3.830 and $4.050, therefore, we recommend the neutrality for today and monitoring the price behavior to avoid any losses that might be caused by changing the main track.

The expected trading range for today is between $3.000 and $3.2200

Trend forecast: Neutral

Copper price is under negative pressures, which forces it to provide bearish correctional trading, but its stability above the support at $5.3200 forms the main factor to confirm the continuation of the positivity in the near and medium period trading, therefore, we will keep waiting for gathering the positive momentum to motivate it to target $5.7100, then wait to reach the next main target near $5.9700.

Note that the price decline below the mentioned support and holding below it, so that will confirm delaying the bullish scenario, to begin providing strong bearish correctional trading, to expect reaching $5.0650, then reach the next support base at $4.7200 level.

The expected trading range for today is between $5.4000 and $5.7100

Trend forecast: Bullish

Copper price is under negative pressures, which forces it to provide bearish correctional trading, but its stability above the support at $5.3200 forms the main factor to confirm the continuation of the positivity in the near and medium period trading, therefore, we will keep waiting for gathering the positive momentum to motivate it to target $5.7100, then wait to reach the next main target near $5.9700.

Note that the price decline below the mentioned support and holding below it, so that will confirm delaying the bullish scenario, to begin providing strong bearish correctional trading, to expect reaching $5.0650, then reach the next support base at $4.7200 level.

The expected trading range for today is between $5.4000 and $5.7100

Trend forecast: Bullish

The U.S. Dollar Index staged a firm rebound on Friday, recovering from two-week lows. This surge coincided with a drop in weekly jobless claims to a three-month low, reinforcing views that the U.S. labor market remains resilient. With gold priced in dollars, a stronger greenback reduces its attractiveness to foreign buyers, amplifying downside pressure.

In addition, a firm labor backdrop makes it harder for the Fed to justify immediate rate cuts. The prospect of rates staying higher for longer diminishes gold’s appeal as a non-yielding asset, making the dollar-gold inverse relationship even more impactful heading into the FOMC meeting.

Trade Optimism Undermines Safe-Haven Demand

Bullion’s role as a safe haven was further diminished on Friday by rising confidence in U.S.-EU trade talks. Following a finalized U.S.-Japan agreement earlier in the week, the European Commission expressed confidence in reaching a deal with Washington by the August 1 deadline. Risk appetite increased, with investors rotating into equities and risk-linked assets. As geopolitical tensions ease, capital continues flowing out of gold.

Gold Prices Forecast

Friday’s technical breakdown below the 50-day moving average, combined with fundamental headwinds, shifts the short-term outlook to bearish. Gold may attempt to base near $3,310.480, but unless the Fed signals dovish policy next week, sellers are likely to remain in control. A retest of $3,282.660 and possibly $3,244.410 is on the table if bearish momentum accelerates. Gold’s longer-term bias remains constructive, supported by the 200-day SMA at $2,991.303, but near-term risk is skewed to the downside.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.

The GBPCAD ended the last bearish correctional by its stability near 1.8390, facing the moving average 55, reinforcing the stability of the extra support near 1.8355, increasing the chances for renewing the positive action in the near and medium period trading.

Therefore, we will begin by preferring the bullish trading that might target 1.8470 level, reaching the next target at 1.8580, while the price declined below the support mentioned and holding below it, will confirm its surrender to the bearish correctional scenario, which forces it to suffer more of the losses by reaching 1.8310 and 1.8270.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.8360 and 1.8470

Trend forecast: Bullish