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The U.S.-Japan deal includes 15% reciprocal tariffs and expanded market access for U.S. exports, ranging from autos and agricultural goods to rice. “The announcement defused immediate trade tensions and improved the global risk tone,” analysts at ING wrote, adding that precious metals came under pressure as capital rotated into equities and riskier assets.

At the same time, the U.S. dollar staged a mild recovery, bouncing from a two-week low. Although the rebound in the greenback was modest, it was enough to trigger profit-taking in gold, which had surged over 4% in the past five trading days. Technical traders noted the move as a corrective pullback rather than a trend reversal, citing persistent uncertainty in the Fed’s rate path.

Fed Signals and Political Pressure Keep Floor Under Gold

While the Trump-Japan deal improved sentiment, uncertainty over Federal Reserve policy continues to cloud the macro outlook. President Trump has renewed calls for lower rates and publicly questioned Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s leadership. Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has requested a review of central bank operations, sparking concerns about institutional independence.

“Political interference in monetary policy is unsettling for markets,” said Michael Saunders, a senior FX strategist. “That ambiguity around future rate decisions is preventing a full dollar recovery, thereby cushioning the downside in gold.”

Lower interest rate expectations tend to support gold, which offers no yield but benefits from a weaker dollar environment.

Flash PMIs and Housing Data to Set the Tone

Later today, traders will scrutinize the U.S. Existing Home Sales report, followed by global flash PMI releases, which could influence economic sentiment and precious metals direction.

The average price of oil per barrel in 2025 is projected at $68.6, while the price of 1,000 cubic meters of gas is forecasted at $399, the Governor of the Central Bank of Azerbaijan, Taleh Kazimov, said during a press conference on the parameters of the interest rate corridor, APA reports.

He noted that by the end of this year, the current account surplus is expected to form around $3.6–4 billion.

Copper price witnessed a strong rise in its last intraday trading, to breach the key resistance at $5.73, amid the dominance of the main bullish trend on the short-term basis and its trading alongside a minor bias line, with the continuation of the dynamic support that is represented by its trading above EMA50, reinforcing the stability of this bullish track, especially with the emergence of the positive signals on the (RSI), despite reaching overbought areas.

Therefore, our expectations suggest a rise in (copper) price in its upcoming intraday trading, if it settles above $5.73, to target the critical resistance level at $5.89.

The expected trading range for today is between $5.65 and $5.89

Trend forecast: Bullish

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• Gold price retreats from over one-month highs above $3,400 on Tuesday.
• The US Dollar consolidates the downside amid tariff uncertainty and Fed concerns.
• Gold price settles Monday above the key Fibo resistance; any downside appears limited.   

Gold price is reversing from over one-month highs of $3,403 reached in early Asia on Tuesday as buyers take a breather, awaiting clarity on potential US trade deals before the August 1 deadline.

Gold price is down but not out

The latest retracement in Gold price could be attributed to a bout of profit-taking after Monday’s nearly 1.5% rally and ahead of key earnings results from America’s tech giant – Alphabet Inc, this Wednesday.

A pause in the US Dollar (USD) and US Treasury bond yields sell-off also weighs on the Greenback-priced bright metal.

The fate of Gold price hinges on the USD’s performance, in the face of US President Donald Trump’s tariff talks.

Mounting uncertainty over US trade deals with Japan and the European Union (EU) weighed heavily on the Greenback at the start of the week on Monday, as it revived US economic growth concerns.

Citing some sources. the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on Monday that “US officials have informed the EU’s trade chief that President Trump is likely to demand further concessions in ongoing trade talks, including a higher baseline tariff of 15% or more on most European goods, a significant increase from the previously discussed 10%.”

EU diplomats noted that the bloc is exploring a broader set of possible countermeasures against the US as doubts over a likely deal rise.

Meanwhile, Japanese political instability cast clouds on a likely US-Japan trade deal before the August 1 deadline.

Additionally, the US currency also felt the heat of the falling US Treasury bond yields amid persistent worries over the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) independence amid Trump’s repeated calls for Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s resignation.

The record rally on Wall Street indices also diminished the safe-haven appeal of the USD and the attractiveness of the yields, helping Gold price extend Friday’s gains.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

As observed on the daily chart, Gold price closed Monday above the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement (Fibo) level of the April record rally at $3,377.

Meanwhile, the yellow metal holds its position well above all major Simple Moving Averages (SMA) as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stays comfortably above the midline, despite the latest downtick.

The technical setup, therefore, appears in favor of Gold buyers, with acceptance above the $3,400 mark needed to take on the static resistance at around $3,440.

Conversely, if the correction extends, Gold price could test the previous resistance-turned-support at $3,377, below which the $3,330 area could lend some support. That zone is the confluence of the 21-day SMA and the 50-day SMA.

Sellers must find a strong foothold below that demand area to test the 38.2% Fibo level of the same rally at $3,297 before targeting the July low of $3,283.

Is the Weather Forecast Losing Its Bullish Bite?

Traders pulled risk off the table following a cooler shift in U.S. weather models. While much of the southern two-thirds of the country remains hot, with highs in the 90s and low 100s, updated GFS and EC models showed a net reduction of five cooling degree days (CDDs) over the weekend.

Temperatures in the Northeast and Midwest are now expected to moderate from late July into early August, with Vaisala projecting an active storm track that could cap cooling demand during July 31–August 4.

LNG Exports Dip as Gas Supply Trends Higher

Another pressure point for prices is the ongoing softness in LNG exports. U.S. LNG net flows on Monday totaled 14.9 bcf/day, down 4.9% week-on-week, according to BNEF. This drop coincides with signs of stronger supply. U.S. dry gas production reached 107.4 bcf/day to start the week—up 4.8% year-on-year—while rig activity hit a 17-month high of 117, per Baker Hughes.

Storage Data and Demand: Are the Bulls Getting Squeezed?

Last week’s EIA storage report added to the bearish tone. Inventories rose by 46 bcf for the week ending July 11, slightly above consensus and the five-year average of +41 bcf. U.S. gas inventories now sit 6.2% above their five-year seasonal average, despite being 4.9% lower year-on-year.

Meanwhile, electricity demand offers limited support: U.S. power output rose just 1.1% y/y in the latest weekly report, a modest lift relative to expectations for peak summer cooling demand.

Will Technical Levels Offer Support or Fuel a Breakdown?

Natural gas price settled on slight gain in its last intraday trading, attempting to recover some of its previous losses, and it attempts to offload some of its clear oversold conditions on the (RSI), especially with the beginning of the emergence of the positive signals, amid the dominance of the main bearish trend on the short-term, and its affection by exiting bullish correctional channel’s range on the short-term basis, with the continuation of the negative pressure due to its trading below EMA50.

Therefore, our expectations suggest natural gas price decline in its upcoming intraday trading, if the resistance settles at $3.40, to target the initial support level at 43.25 preparing to break it.

The expected trading range for today is between $3.20 and $3.40

Trend forecast: Bearish

• Silver is trading around $38.50 on Monday, recovering from last week’s mild pullback.
• Momentum indicators on the hourly chart suggest an upside bias, with the RSI near 70 and the ADX turning higher.
• Immediate key resistance is seen at the $39.00 psychological level and the July 14 high of $39.13, while support is located at the $38.00 round number and the $37.50 demand zone.

Silver (XAG/USD) starts the week on firmer ground after a mild pullback last week. As of now, the metal is trading near $38.50 during the early American trading hours on Monday, just shy of the multi-year high of $39.13 set on July 14. Although the recent rally has lost some momentum, technical indicators are turning bullish again across both short-term and longer-term charts.

The rebound is also supported by a softer US Dollar, which is trading under pressure on Monday amid easing Treasury yields and cautious risk sentiment.

On the hourly chart, Silver is showing signs of renewed strength after forming a local bottom near $37.50, following a break above a descending trendline. The spot price now holds above both the 50- and 21-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). Both moving averages are sloping slightly upward and acting as dynamic intraday support, indicating fresh buying interest.

Momentum is also firming up. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has climbed into the overbought zone near 70, reflecting strong bullish momentum. While slightly stretched, the setup remains constructive as long as the RSI holds above 60. Meanwhile, the Average Directional Index (ADX) is pointing north currently at 20, hinting at a possible strengthening in trend momentum. However, a confirmed breakout above the $38.80-$39.00 resistance band could quickly ignite a stronger directional push.

Key short-term levels:

• Resistance: $39.00 psychological zone followed by $39.13 July 14 high.
• Support: $38.00 round number, $37.50 demand zone, and 21-EMA at $38.36 followed by 50-EMA at $38.24.

Zooming out to the daily chart, Silver remains firmly embedded in an uptrend, supported by a clearly defined ascending channel that has held since early April. The recent rally to $39.13 shows strong buying interest in Silver, supported by ongoing economic uncertainty and global tensions.

Despite last week’s modest pullback from multi-year highs, the broader structure remains intact. Silver continues to trade comfortably above the 21-day EMA at $37.18 and the 50-day EMA at $35.92—both serving as solid dynamic support and aligning with the lower boundary of the rising channel.

The RSI is nearing the overbought level, currently at 68, indicating buyers are gaining strength. Meanwhile, the ADX has increased to 20.00, showing that the trend is in its early stages. As long as Silver holds above the $37.00-$37.50 region, the broader bullish bias remains intact. A decisive breakout above $39.13 could pave the way for a run toward the key psychological barrier at $40.00.

XAU/USD Current price: $3,394.97

• Fiscal and political woes in the United States undermine demand for the US Dollar.
• White House pressure on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell mounts.
• XAU/USD aims to extend its gains beyond the $3,400 in the near term.

Spot Gold surged in the European session Monday, flirting with the $3,400 level after Wall Street’s opening. The strong momentum in the bright metal comes from the broad US Dollar’s (USD) weakness, as the American currency keeps suffering from fiscal and political woes.

Trade-related tensions took centre stage in the absence of relevant data, with the focus particularly in negotiations between the United States (US) and the European Union (EU). Undergoing negotiations between the two economies is not enough to pause threats and retaliatory measures announcements. On the one hand, the White House noted that the deadline, set for August 1, will not be changed, while a base tariffs could be set at 30%. The EU, in the meantime, announced it’s studying retaliatory levies, should the US moves forward.

Other than that, Republican House Anna Paulina Luna is referring Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell to the Department of Justice (DOJ) for criminal charges, accusing him of perjury on two occasions. Additionally, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent proposed a review of the whole Fed. “What we need to do is examine the entire Federal Reserve institution and whether they have been successful,” Bessent said on Monday.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The daily chart for the XAU/USD pair shows it largely recovered above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the $3,452.51 – $3,247.83 at around $3,374, opening the door for a recovery towards the top of the range. The same chart shows the pair is well above a now flat 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), which consolidates at around $3,330, while the 100 SMA maintains its form bullish slope far below the shorter one, in line with the dominant bullish trend. Finally, technical indicators remain within positive levels with uneven upward strength, yet still suggesting higher highs ahead.

The near-term picture is supportive of another leg north, as technical indicators in the 4-hour chart reached overbought readings. The Momentum indicator maintains its almost vertical slope, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator decelerated, but keeps aiming north at around 71. At the same time, XAU/USD is far above all its moving averages, with the 100 and 200 SMA lacking directional strength, but the 20 SMA heading higher above the longer ones, skewing the risk to the upside.

Support levels: 3,390.10 3,374.50 3,350.00

Resistance levels: 3,403.20 3,417.90 3,430.35