• Gold retraces Wednesday’s gains and approaches weekly lows at $3,320.
• A stronger US Dollar amid investors’ concerns about the global trade outlook is weighing on Gold.
• XAU/USD needs to break the $3,310-$3,320 to confirm a trend shift.

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading lower on Thursday, weighed by a stronger US Dollar, with risk appetite subdued amid ongoing uncertainty about global trade and rumours about the resignation of the Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

The precious metal retreats from Monday’s highs at $3,375, but price action remains contained within previous ranges. Later today, the release of the US June Retail Sales data and weekly Jobless Claims might give further clues about the impact of Trump’s tariffs on consumption and employment, and give more guidance for the pair.

Technical analysis: The $3,310-$3,320 is an important support area

The XAU/USD technical picture remains messy. The daily chart shows a lack of clear bias, with the RSI wavering back and forth around the 50 level, and price action halfway through the last few months’ trading range.

A look at the 4-hour chart, however, reveals increasing downside pressure, although the pair remains above the support area at $3,310-$3,320, which contains the neckline of a double top at $3,375 and the bottom of the ascending wedge. A confirmation below here would increase pressure towards the July 9 low at $3,285 ahead of the June 29 low, at $3,245

On the flip side, a rebound from current levels would find resistance at the mentioned $3,375 July 14, 16 highs, and the wedge top, at 3,380, ahead of the June 18 and 23 highs, at the $3,400 area.

Bull Pennant Prepares the Next Move

Concurrently, gold has formed a bull pennant trend continuation pattern, and it is moving closer to a breakout given the narrowing distance to the apex of the pennant triangle. However, the next bull signal will be on rally above the three-week high from this week at $3,377, and a four-week breakout will trigger above $3,396.

Since the bull pennant is a trend continuation pattern it shows the potential for an upside breakout of the pattern and eventual continuation of the long-term bull trend. Resistance of the pattern is reflected by the top declining trendline and the most recent swing high at $3,451 (B).

Bullish Weekly Higher Highs and Lows

The bullish weekly pattern shows underlying strength in gold, which is supported by the daily bull pennant trend pattern. As expected, volatility contracted during the formation of the pennant consolidation, and more so the past couple of weeks. The only concern is that the bull pennant is almost too perfect and therefore obvious. Sometimes when the chart pattern is very clear it has the risk of doing something to fool market participants before the real move is established. A failure of the bull pattern is likely if gold falls below a recent interim higher swing low at $3,283.

Demand Builds as Consolidation Unfolds

Nevertheless, periods of low volatility can be followed by times of high volatility, or trending. If a breakout above the $3,451 swing high is sustained, the record high in gold will likely be exceeded. Gold would then be heading towards the completion of an ABCD pattern at 3,579, followed by a Fibonacci extension target at $3,603. The higher target would then be $3,668, which is the 127.2% projected ABCD target, combined with an initial target for a larger rising ABCD pattern (not shown) that starts from the April swing low.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Deeper Pullback?

Heading into next week, if today’s low is broken then the 20-Day line may fail as well on the way to a test of support around the longer term and more significant 200-Day MA, now at $3.45. Notice that the 20-Day MA (purple) is declining towards the 200-Day line. So, the potential drop below the 20-Day MA, if it does occur, is lessened the closer the two lines become.

Trendline Shows Resistance

When considering the rising dashed trendline that was previously the lower line of a rising trend channel, the line has indicated an area of resistance for the past four days. The line previously represented dynamic support and now resistance around the line has been confirmed. Despite several attempts to break above the line, there has not been a daily close above it. Since it is acting as resistance following a seven-day advance, a period of consolidation or a deeper pullback could follow.

Weekly Breakout Confirms Above $3.47

A weekly bull breakout triggered this week on a rally above last week’s high of $3.47. Therefore, the week is set to end with a higher weekly high and higher weekly low. The breakout will be confirmed on a weekly basis with a closing price today above last week’s high. Once the weekly breakout confirms, natural gas should see at least one higher weekly high and low as a continuation, if not more. It is also interesting to note that this week’s low was within the top third of last week’s price. That by itself is a sign of strength. But confirmation of that weekly breakout will be key the weekly closing price could be below the midpoint of the week’s range. That would be a bearish indication.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

• Silver (XAG/USD) is holding firm near $38.00 after hitting a 14-year high earlier this week.
• The metal remains supported by an ascending channel on daily and weekly charts.
• RSI and ADX on the daily chart are turning higher, signaling a possible return in bullish momentum.

Silver (XAG/USD) is treading water on Friday, with spot prices hovering near $38.25 after marking a fresh 14-year high of $39.13 earlier this week. The metal continues to draw support from a firmly bullish structure, trading within a well-defined ascending channel on both the daily and weekly charts. While momentum has cooled slightly near multi-year highs, the broader technical outlook remains positive, with prices still comfortably positioned above key short-term moving averages.

The 21-day EMA at $37.05 continues to provide dynamic support, while the 50-day EMA near $35.82 offers a solid cushion for any deeper pullbacks.

Although price is consolidating just below the $38.50-$39.00 resistance zone, momentum indicators are beginning to turn higher again. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) eased slightly after nearing overbought territory earlier in the week when Silver hit its 14-year high. However, it has started to slope upward again, currently hovering around 66, pointing to a potential revival in buying interest.

The Average Directional Index (ADX) on the daily chart is also beginning to pick up, suggesting that trend strength may be strengthening after a brief slowdown. These developments indicate that the recent consolidation may be a healthy pause within the broader uptrend, rather than a signal of exhaustion.

Immediate support is seen around $37.00 round number, aligning with the 21-day EMA and marking a key line in the sand for bulls. A break below this level could trigger a deeper pullback, exposing the next support at $35.50, followed by a stronger demand zone near $34.50. On the upside, a sustained move above $39.13 would likely attract fresh buying interest, opening the door for a push toward the psychological $40.00 level and potentially higher.

There are also questions about whether or not Russian gas will ever come back online on the continent. And this may, in the future at least, open up the possibility of higher prices in the off season, if you will, making natural gas extraordinarily supported. That being said, we also have to think about AI and electricity and things like that. So longer term, we may see a little bit of a change in the way the market works at this time of year.

Regardless, and thinking well past all of that, I look at this as a market that you’re still fading rallies in, at least for a couple of months. If we were to break above the previous uptrend line, then we could go looking to the $3.75 level and then possibly $4, which is the top of the overall range. On the downside, the $3.20 level is a potential target. After that, we could look at the $3 level. We’re essentially in the middle of the range, but it does look like we’re getting a bit tired, so I think more downward than upward pressure is present.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Despite the weakness of copper price trading, its success in holding above support level at $5.3200 reinforces the chances of renewing the bullish rally, by the attempt to provide clear pressures on the barrier at $5.5100.

We recommend waiting to breach the current barrier to open the way towards achieving several gains, which might begin at $5.6700 and $5.9700, while the decline below the support will cancel the bullish suggestion in the near trading, which forces it to suffer some losses by reaching $5.1500 and $4.9800. 

The expected trading range for today is between $5.4200 and $5.6700

Trend forecast: Bullish

Despite the weakness of copper price trading, its success in holding above support level at $5.3200 reinforces the chances of renewing the bullish rally, by the attempt to provide clear pressures on the barrier at $5.5100.

We recommend waiting to breach the current barrier to open the way towards achieving several gains, which might begin at $5.6700 and $5.9700, while the decline below the support will cancel the bullish suggestion in the near trading, which forces it to suffer some losses by reaching $5.1500 and $4.9800. 

The expected trading range for today is between $5.4200 and $5.6700

Trend forecast: Bullish

• Silver extends gains for the third day in a row, buoyed by US Dollar weakness.
• Upbeat US corporate earnings and dovish Fedspeak are weighing on the safe-haven US Dollar.
• XAG/USD corrective reversal has been capped above previous highs, at the $37.55 area.

Silver (XAG/USD) is rallying for the third consecutive day on Friday, with bulls testing July 15 highs of 38.40 at the time of writing, as the US Dollar falls alongside US Treasury yields amid higher risk appetite.

Corporate earnings reports from Netflix, the Chipmaker TSMC, PepsiCo, and United Airlines, among others, beat market expectations on Thursday, boosting demand for equities and risk-sensitive assets to the detriment of safe havens like the US Dollar.

These reports, coupled with dovish comments from Fed Governour Christopher Waller, who maintained that the bank should cut interest rates in July, citing downside risks for the labour market and economic growth, are contributing to keeping the US Dollar on the defensive on Friday.

Technical Analysis: Correcting lower within a broader bullish trend

From a technical perspective, the pair´s corrective reversal from long-term highs above $39.00 has been capped above the reverse trendline of a previous bullish channel, and the pair is trading higher again.

Bulls are testing the 15 July high at $38.40, with the 4-hour RSI steady at levels above 50, which suggests that further appreciation is likely. A confirmation above that level brings the July 14 high, at $39.15, to the focus.

A rejection from current levels, on the contrary, might find support at the mentioned trendline, now at $37.8, ahead of the July 15, 16, and 17 lows, at $37,60. Below here, the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the June-July rally, and the July 6 low, at $37.25, might attract selling pressure.

The EURJPY pair kept its stability above the breached bullish channel’s resistance, which forms an extra support at 172.10, forming a new bullish rally and its fluctuation near 173.00 level.

Note that monitoring the price behavior after achieving the target at 173.40, due to the continuation of stochastic contradiction by its fluctuations below 80 level, and surpassing this level is important to reinforce the chances for resuming the bullish attack and reaching new positive stations that might extend to 173.85 and 174.40, while activating the bearish correctional track requires a sharp decline to settle below 172.00.

The expected trading range for today is between 172.10 and 173.85.

Trend forecast: Bullish

Pullback May Be Complete

Today’s behavior shows improving demand for gold and possibly the completion of another test of the lower uptrend line across the bottom of a developing bull pennant pattern. Therefore, the short-term pullback is likely complete. A daily close above the 20-Day MA will confirm strength indicated by the reclaim of the 20-Day line.

Moreover, the day is set to end with a potentially bullish hammer candlestick pattern. Although it is not distinct at the bottom of a downtrend, it does provide another piece of bullish evidence. Also, the one-day pattern, which indicates an intraday bullish reversal, can be used to alert a short-term bullish indication on a rise above the high for the day, currently at $3,352.

Potential Bull Pennant Breakout

It is important to understand however, that a hammer breakout would be happening inside a five-day price range, which may impact the response. On Wednesday, gold triggered an upside breakout of a 16-day relatively tight price range and reached a new high for the range at $3,377. The breakout failed to follow through and led to the drop to a six-day low of $3,310 today.

That high was a three-week high. So, a breakout above $3,377 will confirm a multi-week bull breakout. Of course, this would be a bullish sign and put gold in site of the top line at the top of the pennant pattern. That could lead to the pennant triggering an upside-breakout, or a consolidation of some degree first.

Weekly Trend Improves

With Wednesday’s rally a higher weekly high was established, and a higher low will be completed today. This is the second week for the pattern, and it shows improving demand. Although a break above the top trendline triggers the pennant, a more significant signal would be above the lower swing high at $3,451. An initial upside target is at $3,578, indicated by a rising ABCD pattern.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.