Is Hotter Weather Enough to Extend the Rally?

Forecast models remain in alignment on increasingly hot conditions for the second half of July, particularly across the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. NatGasWeather noted that the next five days will carry solid demand due to widespread heat, while days 6–15 show a “decisively hotter” outlook.

Temperatures are expected to surge into the 90s along the East Coast and hit triple digits in California and the Southwest, with modest cooling only in the northern third of the country.

These heat-driven forecasts are boosting near-term demand expectations for electricity generation, increasing the call on gas-fired power.

On Wednesday, August Nymex natural gas settled up $0.028 (+0.79%) at a new two-week high. The rally has been fueled by stronger air conditioning load and steady LNG exports, which climbed slightly to 15.1 bcf/day, according to BNEF.

Can Traders Trust the EIA Storage Signal This Week?

Attention is now turning to Thursday’s EIA storage report for the week ended July 11, which is expected to show a +45 bcf injection—above the five-year average of +41 bcf.

However, analysts are treating the print as “tricky,” factoring in distortions from the Fourth of July holiday and weaker wind generation. Last week’s inventory build of +53 bcf was bullish, falling below expectations and aligning with seasonal norms.

No news for copper price, it remains confined between $5.3200 support and $5.5100 level which represents an extra barrier against the bullish attempts, and the contradiction between the main indicators confirming delaying the bullish attempts, to recommend neutrality and wait for surpassing these levels to detect the expected targets in the near trading.

Trading success in surpassing the barrier and holding above it will reinforce the dominance of the bullish bias, which might target $5.6700, while breaking the support will force it to form bearish correctional waves, to expect reaching $5.1500 and $4.9800.

The expected trading range for today is between $5.3100 and $5.5100

Trend forecast: Neutral

Revolve Group’s stock price (RVLV) declined in latest intraday trading, under negative pressure from trading below the 50-day SMA. This drop positions the stock to potentially break a short-term upward correctional trend line, a scenario supported by negative signals starting to stream from the Stochastic after reaching extremely overbought levels — exaggerated relative to the stock’s movement.

Therefore we expect the stock to decline in upcoming trading, especially if it breaks the mentioned upward trend line, targeting the support level of $18.75.

Today’s price forecast: Bearish

XAU/USD Current price: $3,339.52

• Upbeat US data backed a Wall Street’s recovery and limited US Dollar’s advance.
• US President Trump hinted at potential trade deals with Europe and India.
• XAU/USD bounced from fresh weekly lows, bullish potential well-limited.

Gold price hovers around $3,340, recovering from a fresh weekly low of $3,309.96. The FX board is all about United States (US) headlines and sentiment. The US Dollar (USD) traded with a firmer tone throughout the day, partially backed by comments from US President Donald Trump, hinting at trade deals with India and the Eurozone, and partially supported by upbeat macroeconomic figures.

Retail Sales in the US surged my more than anticipated in June, up 0.6% after falling by 0.9% in May and much better than the 0.1% advance anticipated. Additionally, Initial Jobless Claims in the week ended July 12 rose by 221K, beating the 235K expected. Finally, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey improved to 15.9 in July from the -4 posted in June, much better than the -1 anticipated by market’s analysts.

The upbeat figures boosted Wall Street, with the three major indexes rallying, limiting USD demand in the second half of the day. At the same time, the XAU/USD pair got to bounce from the aforementioned low, amid speculative interest betting on higher highs ahead for the bright metal.

Meanwhile, speculative interest has set aside concerns about the Federal Reserve (Fed) autonomy, after US President Donald Trump poured could water on speculation he may replace Fed’s Chair, Jerome Powell, before the end of his term in May 2026.

Friday will bring the preliminary estimate of the July Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, expected to have improved to 61.5 from the 60.7 posted in June.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The quick bounce in Gold despite the better mood suggests buyers are still willing to add on dip. The daily chart for the XAU/USD pair temporarily fell below the 38.2% retracement of the $3,452.51 – $3,247.83 decline at around $3,325, while sellers contained advances around the 50% retracement of the same decline at around $3,350. The same chart shows that the pair is currently a handful of bucks above a flat 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), while the 100 and 200 SMAs extended their advances far below the current level. Technical indicators, in the meantime, diverge within neutral levels, failing to provide clear directional clues.

The near term picture shows the bullish potential is limited, as the pair would need to run past the next Fibonacci resistance, the 61.8% retracement at $3,374.56, to turn positive. The 4-hour chart shows a mildly bearish 20 SMA extends its slide below a flat 200 SMA, while technical indicators recovered from their early lows near oversold readings, but remain within negative levels.

Support levels: 3,325.00 3,311.70 3,295.50

Resistance levels: 3,350.18 3,374.56 3,390.10

Despite the neediness of the EURJPY pair to positive momentum since yesterday, its positive stability above 171.75 confirms the stability of the bullish track, to increase the chances of reaching the initial main target at 173.40 and surpassing it will reinforce the chances for recording extra gains that might extend towards 173.85 and 174.40.

Notet that the price decline below 171.75 and providing bearish closes will increase the chances for activating the attempts of gathering the gains by forming bearish correctional waves, to expect targeting 171.10 level, reaching the support near 170.45. 

The expected trading range for today is between 172.00 and 173.80

Trend forecast: Bullish

• Gold retraces Wednesday’s gains and approaches weekly lows at $3,320.
• A stronger US Dollar amid investors’ concerns about the global trade outlook is weighing on Gold.
• XAU/USD needs to break the $3,310-$3,320 to confirm a trend shift.

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading lower on Thursday, weighed by a stronger US Dollar, with risk appetite subdued amid ongoing uncertainty about global trade and rumours about the resignation of the Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

The precious metal retreats from Monday’s highs at $3,375, but price action remains contained within previous ranges. Later today, the release of the US June Retail Sales data and weekly Jobless Claims might give further clues about the impact of Trump’s tariffs on consumption and employment, and give more guidance for the pair.

Technical analysis: The $3,310-$3,320 is an important support area

The XAU/USD technical picture remains messy. The daily chart shows a lack of clear bias, with the RSI wavering back and forth around the 50 level, and price action halfway through the last few months’ trading range.

A look at the 4-hour chart, however, reveals increasing downside pressure, although the pair remains above the support area at $3,310-$3,320, which contains the neckline of a double top at $3,375 and the bottom of the ascending wedge. A confirmation below here would increase pressure towards the July 9 low at $3,285 ahead of the June 29 low, at $3,245

On the flip side, a rebound from current levels would find resistance at the mentioned $3,375 July 14, 16 highs, and the wedge top, at 3,380, ahead of the June 18 and 23 highs, at the $3,400 area.

The GBPJPY pair lost the positive momentum by stochastic fluctuation near 50 level, which forces it to delay the bullish rally and forming intraday bearish wave, to test the extra support near 197.90 then begin this morning trading with a new positive action, due to its fluctuation near the barrier at 198.80.

We recommend waiting for confirming breaching the current obstacle to confirm its readiness to renew the bullish attempts, which might target 200.35 level, while the failure to breach might help renewing the bearish correctional attempts, forcing it to suffer some losses by reaching 197.45, then attempting to press on the bullish channel’s support at 197.15.

The expected trading range for today is between 198.00 and 200.35

Trend forecast: Bullish

No news for copper price, it remains confined between $5.3200 support and $5.5100 level which represents an extra barrier against the bullish attempts, and the contradiction between the main indicators confirming delaying the bullish attempts, to recommend neutrality and wait for surpassing these levels to detect the expected targets in the near trading.

Trading success in surpassing the barrier and holding above it will reinforce the dominance of the bullish bias, which might target $5.6700, while breaking the support will force it to form bearish correctional waves, to expect reaching $5.1500 and $4.9800.

The expected trading range for today is between $5.3100 and $5.5100

Trend forecast: Neutral

XAU/USD Current price: $3,352.64

• Market talks about US Trump aiming to fire Fed’s Chair Powell put the USD in sell-off mode.
• The US Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by less than anticipated in May.
• XAU/USD returns to its comfort zone at around $3,350, remains within Fibonacci levels.

Spot Gold spent the first half of the day under pressure, bottoming at $3,319.75 early in the American session. The US Dollar (USD) remained strong amid a risk-averse environment, directly linked to stubbornly high United States (US) inflation and US President Donald Trump’s attacks on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.

The US Dollar suffered a major set back across the FX board and the XAU/USD pair jumped to $3,377.32 following headlines indicating Trump is analyzing firing Powell.

CBS reported that Trump asked a group of House Republicans whether he should fire the Fed’s Chair in a meeting that took place in the Oval Office on Tuesday night. Additionally, The New York Times reported that Trump had already drafted a letter to fire the Fed Chair.

Just a few minutes afterwards, Reuters reported that Trump said he is not planning on doing anything, and that any change will be in the next eight months. It is worth remembering that Powell’s term ends in May 2026. The XAU/USD pair retreated towards the current $3,350 region. Stocks plummeted with the initial headlines but trimmed all the news-inspired losses, while the USD remains in the red.

Meanwhile, the US June Producer Price Index (PPI) data was better than anticipated. The index rose 2.3% on an annual basis in June, easing from the 2.6% previous and below the 2.5% anticipated by market players. The core annual reading printed at 2.6%, down from the 3% posted in May and below the 2.7% expected.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The XAU/USD pair keep trading between Fibonacci levels, recovering from around the 38.2% retracement of the $3,452.51 – $3,247.83 slump while topping around the 61.8% retracement of the same decline at $3,374.56. At the same time, the daily chart shows XAU/USD is currently above a mildly bearish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), while the 100 and 200 SMAs head firmly north, far below the current level. Technical indicators, in the meantime, keep seesawing around their midlines, lacking clear directional strength.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the pair is currently trading above all its moving averages, which, anyway, remain flat. At the same time, technical indicators aim marginally higher at around their midlines, yet lack momentum enough to confirm additional gains ahead.

Support levels: 3.325.00 3,311.70 3,295.50

Resistance levels: 3,350.18 3,374.56 3,390.10

• West Texas Intermediate (WTI) edges higher, approaching the $65.00 mark.
• WTI Crude Oil gains are restricted by the 100-day moving average, providing additional resistance at $65.31.
• US Crude Oil inventory data could serve as an additional catalyst for WTI with the weekly API report due at 20.30 GMT.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil is staging a mild rebound on Tuesday, as traders continue to monitor supply and demand dynamics.

WTI Crude Oil is trading near $65.00, with intraday gains nearing 1% at the time of writing.

As the US Oil benchmark continues to trade within a well-defined range between $64.00 and $65.00, focus turns to the upcoming American Petroleum Institute (API) report.

The API will release its weekly Statistical Bulletin (WBS), providing insight into US crude oil stockpiles. According to FXStreet data, Tuesday’s report is expected to show Oil stockpiles declining by 2.26 M barrels, after a 4.277 M barrel drawdown last week. 

Will US Oil inventory data drive WTI out of its current range? 

Over the past five weeks, the report has revealed that Crude Oil stockpiles have continued to decline, reflecting rising demand. However, the Israel-Iran conflict, which ignited fears over potential disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz, had been a major contributor to depleting stockpiles. 

With easing tensions in the Middle East, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) continue to increase supply, limiting the upside move.

However, even with OPEC+ gradually adding supply, sentiment appears to be stabilizing after last week’s steep 12% slide. 

If Tuesday’s data points to a deeper-than-forecast draw, it could signal stronger domestic consumption and offer short-term support as the third quarter begins.

Crude Oil technical analysis: WTI rises toward $65.00

With WTI currently testing the $65.00 psychological level, the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is providing resistance near $65.31. A move above this level could see the price retest the next round number of $66.00, opening the door for the 50% Fibonacci level of the January-April decline at $67.00.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is pointing higher, but remains slightly bearish near 47.

WTI (US Crude) Oil daily chart

If prices fail to hold above $65.00, prices could fall to the 38.2% Fibo level, providing support at $64.18. The June low at $63.73 lies below, a break of which brings the 50-day SMA into play at $63.41.