• West Texas Intermediate (WTI) edges higher, approaching the $65.00 mark.
• WTI Crude Oil gains are restricted by the 100-day moving average, providing additional resistance at $65.31.
• US Crude Oil inventory data could serve as an additional catalyst for WTI with the weekly API report due at 20.30 GMT.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil is staging a mild rebound on Tuesday, as traders continue to monitor supply and demand dynamics.

WTI Crude Oil is trading near $65.00, with intraday gains nearing 1% at the time of writing.

As the US Oil benchmark continues to trade within a well-defined range between $64.00 and $65.00, focus turns to the upcoming American Petroleum Institute (API) report.

The API will release its weekly Statistical Bulletin (WBS), providing insight into US crude oil stockpiles. According to FXStreet data, Tuesday’s report is expected to show Oil stockpiles declining by 2.26 M barrels, after a 4.277 M barrel drawdown last week. 

Will US Oil inventory data drive WTI out of its current range? 

Over the past five weeks, the report has revealed that Crude Oil stockpiles have continued to decline, reflecting rising demand. However, the Israel-Iran conflict, which ignited fears over potential disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz, had been a major contributor to depleting stockpiles. 

With easing tensions in the Middle East, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) continue to increase supply, limiting the upside move.

However, even with OPEC+ gradually adding supply, sentiment appears to be stabilizing after last week’s steep 12% slide. 

If Tuesday’s data points to a deeper-than-forecast draw, it could signal stronger domestic consumption and offer short-term support as the third quarter begins.

Crude Oil technical analysis: WTI rises toward $65.00

With WTI currently testing the $65.00 psychological level, the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is providing resistance near $65.31. A move above this level could see the price retest the next round number of $66.00, opening the door for the 50% Fibonacci level of the January-April decline at $67.00.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is pointing higher, but remains slightly bearish near 47.

WTI (US Crude) Oil daily chart

If prices fail to hold above $65.00, prices could fall to the 38.2% Fibo level, providing support at $64.18. The June low at $63.73 lies below, a break of which brings the 50-day SMA into play at $63.41.

Bulls Remain in Charge

The bulls remain in charge at the time of this writing, with trading continuing in the upper half of the day’s trading range. A daily close above yesterday’s high of $3.54 to a new trend high and the 20-Day line, while a daily close above $3.57 confirms the swing breakout. Nevertheless, this is bullish behavior, and it establishes additional confirmation that the bearish correction is most likely complete.

Next Pivot, $3.75

If the price of natural gas keeps rising before a pullback, it heads towards the next pivot zone from the lower swing high at $3.75. A breakout above that level will trigger another bullish reversal signal. It is interesting to note that the convergence of the 20-Day MA, the 50-Day MA, and an AVWAP line from the April low, converged as price broke through. In addition, the prior uptrend line (dashed) was also part of the resistance zone. This makes today’s breakout potentially significant, and it increases the chance for a relatively shallow pullback, when it does occur.

200-Day Moving Average Support

Since the $3.53 price zone remains nearby, the 200-Day MA, now at $3.44, is a key potential support area. If natural gas continues to trade above the line, a bullish posture remains. In addition, a weekly bull breakout occurred this week, and it looks likely that the week will end above last week’s high of $3.47. That would confirm the breakout on a weekly basis.

$3.75 – Initial Upside Target

A key potential resistance zone shows from around the interim swing high at $3.75 to a prior swing high of $3.84 from May. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement is within that range at $3.77. Given the likelihood that a bottom is complete, the supply and demand dynamics in a pullback should provide clues. In the short-term, the next potential resistance zone above today’s high is around the 50% retracement at $3.65.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

• Silver (XAG/USD) holds steady near $37.80 on Wednesday, recovering modestly from a mild pullback earlier in the week.
• The headline PPI came in flat for June, while Core PPI also missed expectations.
• Core PPI also disappointed, printing at 0.0% MoM and 2.6% YoY, both below market estimates.

Silver (XAG/USD) is holding firm near the $38.00 level on Wednesday, drawing support after US Producer Price Index (PPI) data for June came in softer than expected. At the time of writing, the metal is trading around $37.90 per ounce.

Silver showed little reaction after the release of the latest US PPI data, which came in softer than expected. Headline PPI was flat in June, showing no monthly growth, compared to the 0.2% increase markets had expected, and down from a 0.3% rise in May. On an annual basis, PPI slowed to 2.3%, also below the 2.5% forecast and the 2.6% reading from the previous month.

Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, was also weaker than expected. It came in at 0.0% MoM, missing the 0.2% forecast and down from 0.1% in May. On a yearly basis, Core PPI eased to 2.6%, compared to 2.7% expected and 3.0% in the previous month.

This follows Tuesday’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which showed headline inflation in line with expectations, but core inflation came in slightly softer. The mix of inflation data has reduced the urgency for rate cuts, keeping the US Dollar under modest pressure while non-yielding assets, such as silver, remain supported.

The metal touched a fresh 14-year high of $39.13 on Monday before retreating slightly as investors booked profits. However, the broader technical setup remains bullish, with buyers still in control amid lingering safe-haven demand and cautious risk sentiment.

On the daily chart, Silver (XAG/USD) is trading just above the midline of a rising parallel channel that has guided price action since early April. The recent move higher followed a breakout from a multi-week consolidation range between $35.50 and $37.00, which had kept the metal in check through much of June and early July.

The breakout was confirmed by a strong bullish daily candle, propelling Silver toward the channel’s upper boundary near $39.00. Following a modest round of profit-taking, the metal has stabilized near the midpoint of the channel, which now serves as dynamic support, suggesting that the uptrend remains intact and well-supported.

The 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $36.82 continues to offer key dynamic support and has been consistently respected throughout the current uptrend, reinforcing the underlying bullish structure.

Immediate resistance is seen at the 14-year high of $39.13. A decisive daily close above this level would confirm the next leg of the uptrend and open the door toward the psychological $40.00 mark. If bulls manage to sustain momentum above $40.00, the upper boundary of the rising channel around $40.50 could act as the next upside target.

On the downside, initial support is located at $37.50, which marks the upper boundary of the previous consolidation zone. A break below this level would put focus back on the 21-day EMA at $36.82. Deeper losses may target stronger support near $36.00, aligning with the lower edge of the rising channel.

Momentum indicators continue to favor the bullish scenario. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has eased slightly from overbought conditions, and now stands near 63.50. This pullback in the RSI indicates a healthy consolidation phase rather than a trend reversal.

At the same time, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains firmly in positive territory with a steady histogram and no signs of bearish divergence, signaling that upward momentum remains intact.

Bulls Remain in Charge

Nonetheless, the bulls remain in charge but within a pennant consolidation pattern. This week’s minor pullback reached a low of $3,320, which was a successful test of support around the 50-Day MA and a short downtrend line. Today was the second day in a row that support was retained. Whether there is a slightly deeper pullback before a new rally attempt remains to be seen.

But an overall bullish outlook would not start to change until there was a decline below an interim swing low at $2,283. And the lower boundary line for a bullish pennant pattern may be significant as a drop below it gives a bearish signal and the possibility of a failure of the bull pennant.

Lower Volatility Leads to Higher Volatility

Volatility in gold will likely remain muted until there is a breakout of the pennant consolidation range. Look at the monthly chart (not shown) for a clearer view of the contraction in volatility over the past few months. These areas of trend, where the trading range contracts over time, can often lead to fast-moving markets. Gold’s monthly chart is interesting as May through June (to date) are inside months relative to April and July is inside the range of June. A pennant breakout triggers above the top pattern boundary line, but a more convincing signal occurs above the swing high at $3,451 (B).

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Natural gas prices activated with stochastic attempt to provide positive momentum, to notice forming some bullish waves, approaching from the barrier at $3.6000.

The current bullish rebound will not threaten the bearish scenario, unless breaching the mentioned barrier and holding above it, therefore, we will keep waiting for gathering the negative momentum to ease the mission for reaching $3.350, then repeat the pressure at $3.180 to find an exit to resume the suggested negative attack.

The expected trading range for today is between $3.180 and $3.600

Trend forecast: Bearish

Copper price lost the positive momentum yesterday by stochastic stability below 80 level, which forces it to provide weak sideways trading by its fluctuation near $5.5000 level, without recording any new positive target.

Note that the price activated the attempts of gathering the gains by the continuation of facing negative pressures, which forces it to press on the support near $5.3200, and breaking it will force the price to decline towards $5.1500 and $4.9800, while renewing the bullish attempts requires forming a strong bullish rally, to settle above $5.600.

The expected trading range for today is between $5.1500 and $5.600

Trend forecast: Bearish

Copper price lost the positive momentum yesterday by stochastic stability below 80 level, which forces it to provide weak sideways trading by its fluctuation near $5.5000 level, without recording any new positive target.

Note that the price activated the attempts of gathering the gains by the continuation of facing negative pressures, which forces it to press on the support near $5.3200, and breaking it will force the price to decline towards $5.1500 and $4.9800, while renewing the bullish attempts requires forming a strong bullish rally, to settle above $5.600.

The expected trading range for today is between $5.1500 and $5.600

Trend forecast: Bearish

• Gold price attempts a tepid bounce early Wednesday as focus shifts to trade updates and US PPI data.
• The US Dollar retreats alongside Treasury bond yields even as risk-off flows persist.
• Gold price needs to crack the 50-day SMA support at $3,323; daily RSI reclaims midline.   

Gold price is replicating the tepid recovery moves seen in the first half of Tuesday’s trading as buyers try their luck the third time early Wednesday, heading into the US Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation test.

Gold price susceptible to potential US Dollar resurgence

Despite the latest uptick, Gold price appears to lack bullish conviction as the US Dollar (USD) remains in an upside consolidative mode against its major currency rivals, having risen for the seventh consecutive day on Tuesday.

The USD resumed its uptrend, capitalizing on the rally in the 10-year benchmark US Treasury bond yields after the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) accelerated in June, moving away from the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) 2% inflation target.

The June CPI increased 0.3% on the month, driving the 12-month inflation rate to 2.7%, in line with expectations. The core figures also rose 0.2% over the month and 2.9% annually, but undermined estimates.

The uptick in US inflation bolstered bets for an extended pause by the Fed for a longer period than initially expected, with the odds of a September Fed rate cut falling to about 52% from nearly 60% pre-data release, per the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

Hawkish Fed expectations combined with US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a trade deal with Indonesia helped the USD keep the upper hand, fuelling a fresh decline in the non-interest-bearing Gold price.

The US yields and the USD also tracked the advance in the Japanese government bond yields and the USD/JPY pair as the Asian nation’s bond market and the local currency suffered extensively on heightening fiscal and political concerns.

Citing a story from Asahi newspaper, Reuters reported that “Japan’s ruling coalition will likely lose its majority in the upper house election on July 20, heightening the risk of political instability at a time the country struggles to strike a trade deal with the US.”

However, America’s artificial intelligence (AI) pioneer’s, Nvidia, headlines-driven tech rally curbed the USD uptrend, offering some support to the bright metal.

In Wednesday’s trading so far, uncertainty over Trump’s trade policy and Jerome Powell’s tenure as a Fed Chairman act as headwind to the Greenback, allowing Gold price to come up for some air.

Looking ahead, it remains to be seen if Gold price can sustain the bounce as traders refrain from creating fresh positions ahead of the US PPI data.

If the June US PPI comes in hotter than the expected 2.5% print over the year, while the monthly PPI also above 0.2% forecast, a fresh leg higher in the USD cannot be ruled out at the expense of Gold price.

Meanwhile, developments on the trade front will continue to play a pivotal role in driving risk sentiment, especially after Trump announced late Tuesday that he will send letters notifying smaller countries of their US tariff rates, per Reuters.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

As observed on the daily chart, Gold price is stuck between two key barriers, with the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support-turned-resistance at $3,335 checking the upside.

On the other hand, the 50-day SMA at $3,323 cushions the downside.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is sitting just above the midline, currently near 50.50, suggesting that buyers could retain control.

Acceptance above the 21-day SMA is critical to sustaining the renewed upside, above which the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement (Fibo) level of the April record rally at $3377 will be put to the test once again.

Further north, the $3,400 round level will challenge bearish commitments.

In contrast, rejection at the 21-day SMA could attack the 50-day SMA support.

Sellers must find a strong foothold below the 50-day SMA on daily closing basis.

The next healthy support levels are located at the 38.2% Fibo level of the same rally at $3,297 and the July low of $3,283.

Continues to Show Strength

Natural gas completed a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement last week, which was followed by a bullish reversal and rise into today’s high. Last week’s low at $3.15 certainly could be the end of the bearish correction. Although a lower trend support line was broken briefly, the line was quickly recovered and demand improved. Nonetheless, natural gas remains vulnerable to downward pressure until it sustained an advance above $3.57. That is the most recent lower swing high on the daily time frame, and a rise above will trigger a reversal of the very short-term downtrend structure beginning from the June 27 lower swing high at $3.75.

Weekly Bull Breakout

The bulls have the weekly pattern on their side as a one-week bullish reversal triggered yesterday. But it was not confirmed by a daily close above last week’s high of $3.47. However, that looks likely to happen today, and it will provide another piece of evidence supportive of an eventual continuation to the upside. A potentially solid resistance zone from $3.53 to $3.54 was approached today. It includes an AVWAP level from the April swing low and two moving averages, the 20-Day MA and 50-Day MA. They have converged to identify the same price level at $3.54.

Reached Key Decision Point

The behavior of natural gas around this potentially significant resistance zone should provide clues about supply and demand. For example, a daily close above the 20-Day MA shows buyers retaining control. That would increase the chance for a sustainable breakout above $3.57. A daily close above that level will then put the $3.75 lower swing high at risk of being busted, which would trigger a new bullish reversal. Either way, weakness will be watched by traders for a potential upside continuation.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

• Gold found support at $3,340 and is regaining lost ground, approaching $3,380 highs.
• The US Dollar softens with US treasury yields pulling back from recent highs ahead of the US CPI release.
• From a wider perspective, XAU/USD is moving sideways, halfway through the last few months’ trading range.

Gold (XAU/USD) correction has been limited at $3,340, and the precious metal is retracing previous losses on Tuesday, approaching three-week highs at $3,380 as US Treasury yields and the US Dollar pull back from recent highs ahead of the US CPI release.

The US Dollar Index, which measures the value of the USD against six major currencies, is trading 0.15% lower on the day after a three-day rally. Investors are bracing for a significant increase in inflation amid pressure from US President Trump to cut interest rates, which might increase if the upside risks for inflation forecasted by the bank do not materialise.

Technical analysis: XAU/USD consolidating halfway through the recent range

The XAU/USD technical picture is cloudy, as the pair has been experiencing choppy and sideways trading for the last few months. Price action is currently hovering in the middle of the range, and technical indicators on the daily chart are indicating a lack of a clear trend.

The 4-hour chart shows a moderate positive stance, with the RSI steady above the 50 level and downside attempts finding buyers so far. Bulls are focusing on the July 14 high, at $3,375, which is closing the path towards the June 18 and 23 highs, at the $3,400 area, and the June 16 peak, at $3,450. 

On the downside, a retreat below the July 14 low at $3,340 might find support at the July 10 low at $3,3120 and the July 9 low, at $3,285, ahead of the May 28 and June 30 lows, at $3,245.

Gold FAQs

Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.