• Gold price drifts higher to near $3,365 in Monday’s early Asian session. 
• Trump’s announcement of new tariffs on the EU and broader tariff threats against other trading partners lifted demand for Gold. 
• Fed’s Goolsbee said the latest tariff threats could delay rate cuts.

The Gold price (XAU/USD) extends its upside to around $3,365 during the early Asian session on Monday. The precious metal edges higher as traders rushed toward the traditional safe-haven assets after US President Donald Trump widened the global trade war with a fresh wave of tariffs.

On Saturday, Trump said that the United States (US) will impose a 30% tariff on goods from the European Union (EU) and Mexico that will take effect on August 1. Trump also announced a 35% duty on Canadian imports and proposed a blanket tariff rate of 15%-20% on other trading partners last week, along with a 50% tariff on copper imports. Concerns over the impact of Trump’s latest tariffs boost the yellow metal as investors seek shelter from trade tensions. 

Additionally, the persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East might contribute to the Gold’s upside. Reuters reported that at least eight Palestinians were killed and more than a dozen were wounded while collecting water in central Gaza on Sunday. The Israeli military said the missile had been intended to hit an Islamic Jihad militant in the area but that a malfunction had caused it to fall “dozens of metres from the target”. Steve Witkoff, Trump’s Middle East envoy, stated on Sunday that he was “hopeful” about the Gaza ceasefire discussions that were taking place in Qatar.

On the other hand, the cautious stance of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) might cap the upside for the precious metal. The US central bank is widely anticipated to hold interest rates steady as it waits to see the impact of tariffs on price pressures. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that fresh tariffs unveiled by Trump have further muddied the inflation outlook, making it more difficult for him to support the rate cuts that the President has pressed for.

• Silver adds to the previous day’s strong move up and gains traction for the second straight day.
• A move beyond the $37.30-$37.35 area would set the stage for a further near-term appreciation.
• Any corrective pullback might be seen as a buying opportunity and is likely to remain cushioned.

Silver (XAG/USD) trades with a positive bias for the second straight day and tests the top end of a multi-week-old range during the Asian session on Friday. The white metal currently trades around the $37.20 region, up 0.40% for the day.

From a technical perspective, the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI, 14) remains above 50, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram and the signal line are yet to confirm bullish bias. This makes it prudent to wait for some follow-through buying beyond the $37.30-$37.35 region, or the highest since February 2012 touched last month, before placing fresh bullish bets around the XAG/USD.

The subsequent move up would increase the likelihood of additional gains towards the $38.00 round figure. The next relevant hurdle is pegged near the $38.35-$38.40 region, above which the XAG/USD could extend the momentum towards reclaiming the $39.00 mark for the first time since September 2011.

On the flip side, any corrective pullback below the $37.00 round figure could be seen as a buying opportunity and remain limited near the $36.50-$36.45 area. Some follow-through selling could drag the XAG/USD back closer to the $36.00 mark, which, if broken decisively, should pave the way for a slide towards the $35.50-$35.40 horizontal zone, representing the lower boundary of the short-term trading range.

A convincing break below the latter might then shift the near-term bias back in favor of bearish traders. The XAG/USD might then accelerate the fall towards the $35.00 psychological mark en route to $34.75 intermediate support before eventually dropping to the $34.45 region.

Silver daily chart

Gold Rises Above Key Levels

Friday’s advance further confirms a bullish reversal following a test of support near the lower uptrend line that marks the bottom of a developing bull pennant pattern. This puts gold on track to continue to strengthen towards a test of resistance near the top boundary line of the pennant, at a minimum. A breakout above that line provides an initial breakout signal, but a rise above the lower swing high at $3,451 should be more convincing. If a breakout of the pennant triggers, an initial new high target is around 3,578, derived from a rising ABCD pattern begun from the mid-May swing low. Then there is a 127.2% extended target measured from the April downswing at $3,603.

Within Two Weeks

Since the apex of the pennant triangle is getting closer, an upside breakout should occur within the next couple of weeks, or a pattern failure. A failure of the bull pennant would occur on a drop through the bottom boundary of the pattern rather than the top. The fact that silver broke out today to a new trend high with enthusiasm is supportive of an eventual upside pennant breakout in gold.

Behavior at Support to Provide Clues

Next, the behavior of gold around potential support around the 20-Day or 50-Day lines, should provide clues. If the bullish scenario is retained, support should be seen above today’s low of $3,322, which currently matches the 50-Day line. However, gold remains in a consolidation pattern and therefore choppy price action could continue until there is a decisive breakout.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Maximum Downside Around $2.78

The above analysis includes the lower price zone that may show the maximum potential decline for the current bearish correction. What it illustrates is that a 31.5% drop in the price of natural gas is not unusual during a correction, as it was exceeded twice this year. However, be aware that the full downswing from the March trend high was greater than a 31.5% decline. Whether the potential target zone is reached or not, what it shows is that there is further downside potential for the current correction. This makes lower targets that are above the 78.6% Fibonacci level more likely to be reached before a new bottom is established.

Rejection at 200-Day Resistance

On Friday, natural gas rallied to a three-day high of $3.42 before encountering resistance around the 200-Day MA, now at $3.43. Subsequently, sellers took charge and drove the price down to a low for the day at $3.92. At the time of this writing, downward pressure remains as trading continues in the lower half of the day’s trading range. A rejection of price at the 200-Day MA resistance puts natural gas in a position to continue to fall towards the next lower target zone for the downtrend, at $2.97 to $2.95.

Strength Above $3.47

Nonetheless, a decisive rally above the week’s high of $3.47 could turn sentiment from bearish to bullish. It would signal a potential one-week bullish reversal. Following a daily close above that high to confirm the breakout, natural gas would be heading up into potential resistance at $3.53, followed by $3.57.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

• Gold price rises to near $3,340 as Trump’s fresh tariff threats have increased demand for safe-haven assets.
• US President Trump imposes 35% tariffs on Canada and prepares to announce additional duties on the EU.
• Investors shift their focus to the US inflation data for June.

Gold price (XAU/USD) extends its winning streak for the third trading day on Friday. The yellow metal jumps to near $3,340 as demand for safe-haven assets has increased after United States (US) President Donald Trump threatens to increase the blanket levy to “15% or 20%” from 10% announced on so-called “Liberation Day” on April 2.

Fresh tariff threats from US President Trump have jolted demand for riskier assets across the globe. On Thursday, Trump said in a telephone interview with NBC News that he could announce 15% or 20% tariffs on nations that have failed to close a deal during the 90-day reciprocal tariff pause period.

“We’re just going to say all of the remaining countries are going to pay, whether it’s 20% or 15%. We’ll work that out now,” Trump said.

On Thursday, Trump also announced 35% tariffs on Canada and stated that he will reveal additional duties on imports from the European Union (EU) today or tomorrow.

Trade tensions between the US and the EU are expected to disrupt global trade, considering the size of business between both economies.

Going forward, the next major trigger for the Gold price will be the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June, which will be released on Tuesday. Theoretically, Gold outperforms in a high-inflation environment.

Gold technical analysis

Gold price recovers to near the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around $3,330. The precious metal stays below the Ascending Triangle formation on a daily timeframe.

Theoretically, a breakdown of the asset below the upward-sloping trendline of the above-mentioned chart pattern, which is placed from the April 7 low of $2,957, results in a sharp downfall. The horizontal resistance of the chart formation is plotted from the April 22 high around $3,500.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates inside the 40.00-60.00 range, indicating a sideways trend.

Looking down, the Gold price would fall towards the round-level support of $3,200 and the May 15 low at $3,121, if it breaks below the May 29 low of $3,245

Alternatively, the Gold price will enter an uncharted territory if it breaks above the psychological level of $3,500 decisively. Potential resistances would be $3,550 and $3,600.

Gold daily chart

Short-term Breakout Close at Hand

Since a dashed resistance trendline is close to crossing a lower solid rising trendline, volatility should expand soon as one of the lines will be broken by July 18. Those lines form a small symmetrical triangle. Their convergence shows volatility declining, which can also be seen in the 20-Day MA and 50-Day MA moving closer to one another.

Correction Reflecting Underlying Strength

Gold is trading within a pennant consolidation pattern around the highs of the long-term bull trend. It indicates the potential for an upside breakout, with a likely new record high to follow. Following the $3,500 record high in April, gold weakened with a bearish retracement. Support for the decline was seen at around both a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and the 50-Day MA. The bounce off the 50-Day line retained the integrity of the uptrend, and buyers taking back control near the Fibonacci level reflected strong demand.

Upside Breakout Anticipated

The pennant is a trend continuation pattern, so the expectation is for an eventual upside breakout. That would first be indicated on a rally above the top boundary line for the pattern, with higher conviction on a sustained rally above a lower swing high at $3,451. A daily close above that level will confirm that breakout.

However, given the relationship to resistance around the dashed downtrend line and the closeness to the small triangle apex, an upside breakout could be coming soon. When multiple indicators come together to identify a similar price level during at the time that a breakout could happen, there can be a more significant reaction in price.

Above $3,346 Points Higher

Nonetheless, a decisive bullish short-term reversal is not triggered until a minor swing high of $3,366 is exceeded. Earlier signs of strength will be on a rally above today’s high, followed by a breakout above a three-day range at $3,346. On the downside, a drop below $3,283 indicates a failure of the bull pattern.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Copper price remains stable until this moment within the bullish track, taking advantage of the stability of the extra support at the $5.3200 level, attempting to gather the required extra positive momentum to resume the rise in the near period, reminding you that the initial main stations are stable near $5.7200 reaching the resistance of the bullish channel at $6.0400.

The decline below the support and providing a negative close, so that will force it to form bearish correctional trading, which forces it to suffer some losses by reaching $5.095 and $4.7600 to resume the bullish attack.

The expected trading range for today is between $5.3500 and $5.7200

Trend forecast: Bullish

Short-term Strength Faces Overhead Pressure

Although natural gas is rebounding today, its reaction to upcoming resistance will be more telling about the potential future. Possible resistance around the 200-Day MA, now at $3.43, is the first price area to consider. But it can be combined with Monday’s high of $3.47 and the 50-Day MA, now at $3.53, to establish a price zone.

The moving average is being referred to recognizing that it is generally less useful in a consolidation environment since it is a trending indicator. That is because the AVWAP line measured from the April swing low is pointing to the same price level currently. And the 20-Day MA is heading towards a convergence with those lines as well.

Key Resistance at $3.57

Nevertheless, it looks like an interim lower swing high of $3.57 is the next higher potential resistance of level with the most significance. This is because the downtrend price structure of the second leg down from the June swing high will be violated. Further, a rally above that high will follow an advance above the lower potential resistance levels mentioned above.

Distribution Risk Rises

There were enough bearish signals recently to consider the potential for a lower target zone to be reached following a bounce. Several indicators point to a possible lower target of significance around an AVWAP level at $2.96. That price area is near a long-term uptrend (purple) started from the April 2024 low. It has potential significance given its long-term position and the fact that it is the lower line of a rising trend channel. Since resistance around the top channel line was confirmed by the decline that followed the March trend high, the lower channel line becomes a potential target.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

The (silver) price rose in its last intraday trading, due to its lean on the critical support level at $36.30, providing more of the positive momentum that assisted it to settle, especially with the beginning of positive overlapping signals appearance on the (RSI), after reaching exaggerated oversold levels compared by the price move, indicating the beginning of forming positive divergence, which will intensifies the positive pressures, amid the dominance of the main bullish trend on the short-term basis and its trading alongside a bias line.

Reaction to Sharp Decline

One way to think about the current rally is in relationship to the sharp decline that followed the April lower swing high due to similar volatility. The total decline, from high to low, was $17.25, while the current advance when measured from the higher swing low (C) from May 1, was $17.03. Once there is similarity to a prior swing there is the potential for resistance, in this case. Moreover, notice how resistance was seen recently at a top rising parallel trend line. The line parallels the uptrend line that starts from the higher swing low in May and shows symmetry within a rising trend channel.

Resistance Persists

Today’s high provided a third daily test of the line and resistance was seen once again. Once symmetry in the rising channel is confirmed, there is the potential for a pullback or bearish reversal. A decline below Thursday’s low of $74.02 will trigger the bearish shooting star candle and a one-day bearish reversal off identified resistance.

Key support is the 200-Day MA, now at $69.02, while a minimum decline is anticipated to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $70.65. Watch the 200-Day line along with a 50% retracement level at $68.64. Another area to watch for early support is around an AVWAP level at $72.24. It is potentially significant since it is anchored long-term, starting at the April 2024 swing high day.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.