The Federal Reserve’s stance remains a key pressure point for bullion markets. Following a stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report for June, market participants have pared back expectations of a July rate cut.
The CME FedWatch tool indicates that traders are now pricing in just a 20% probability of a cut at the upcoming meeting, with most expectations being deferred to October or later.
“Investors are holding back ahead of the FOMC minutes, looking for any deviation from the Fed’s cautious tone,” said a senior strategist at Wells Fargo. Meanwhile, 10-year Treasury yields rose above 4.3%, reinforcing dollar strength and keeping gold bulls at bay.
Trump’s Tariff Threats Stir Market Volatility
Former President Donald Trump’s announcement of new tariffs, set to take effect on August 1, has added to concerns about inflation. Proposed duties include up to 200% on foreign pharmaceuticals and 50% on imported copper. These aggressive measures have reignited fears of global supply chain disruptions and added to broader economic uncertainty.
Despite downward price action, demand for gold as a safe haven has not fully evaporated. Risk sentiment in equity markets remains fragile, offering limited downside protection for gold as geopolitical tensions and trade policy risks mount.
All Eyes on FOMC Minutes for Market Direction
Traders await the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes later today. With markets still anticipating up to 50 basis points in cuts by year-end, any shift in tone could spark significant price action across precious metals. Until then, gold and silver remain vulnerable to further downside, contingent on dollar momentum and bond market signals.
Will Storage Surpluses and LNG Keep Bears in Control?
Ample storage continues to weigh on bulls, with the latest EIA data showing U.S. inventories up 6.2% above the five-year average, despite being down 5.8% year-over-year.
The latest injection of +55 Bcf surpassed consensus, reinforcing the market’s view that supply is not a constraint.
Eli Rubin at EBW Analytics noted that the combination of “lofty storage surpluses and weak Henry Hub spot realizations” may keep bears in charge, especially given uneven LNG flows, which fell 2.5% week-over-week to 15 Bcf/day on Tuesday.
Lower-48 dry gas production remains robust at 104.8 Bcf/day, up 3.9% year-over-year, while demand fell 6.8% to 77.9 Bcf/day, underscoring the imbalance pressing prices lower.
How Are Weather and Wind Generation Influencing Demand?
NatGasWeather highlighted strong heat for July 7-13, with highs in the mid-80s to 90s across much of the U.S., including 100s in the West and Plains, supporting high near-term demand.
However, forecasts have cooled for the central U.S. for July 13-17 and for the East July 18-22, pressuring futures lower on expectations of reduced power burn for air conditioning.
The EURJPY pair began this morning with new positivity by surpassing the resistance of the bullish channel’s resistance at 171.70 level, recording some extra gains by holding near 172.25.
Note that stochastic stability within the overbought level might decelerate the chances of forming a strong bullish rally, but its repeated stability above 171.10 that attempts to form an extra support might assist to motivate the continuation of the positivity, to expect reaching to 172.85 followed by 161.8%Fibonacci extended level at 173.40
The expected trading range for today is between 171.50 and 171.85
Copper prices are under strong positive pressures, which allows it to surpass the barrier at $5.1000, to notice forming a strong bullish rally and achieving big gains by hitting $5.8100 level, forming an intraday rebound to $5.5500 to catch its breath and gather some gains.
Note that the price is surrounded by several positive factors that support the continuation of the positivity, such as the unionism of the main indicators by providing positive momentum besides forming extra support at $5.3200 level, which makes us prefer more of the bullish attempts that target 2.00%Fibonacci extended level at $5.9720, to approach from the resistance of the main bullish channel that appears in the above image.
The expected trading range for today is between $5.4500 and $5.9800
Gold price licks its wounds early Wednesday after breaking the range to the downside.
Trade deals optimism and a hawkish shift in Fed expectations remain a drag on the non-yielding Gold price.
Gold price settles Tuesday below 50-day SMA, with a bearish daily RSI in play.
Gold price is battling $3,300, licking its wounds early Wednesday. Traders refrain from placing fresh bets on the bright metal, awaiting fresh trade updates and the Minutes of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) June policy meeting for fresh directives.
Gold price eyes trade talks, Fed Minutes
Following Tuesday’s over 1% decline, Gold price is nursing losses in Asian trading on Wednesday, unable to find much inspiration from mixed Chinese inflation data for June.
Data on Wednesday showed that China’s annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1% in June after falling 0.1% in May. Meanwhile, the nation’s Producer Price Index (PPI) dropped by 3.6% over the year in June versus -3.2% expected and -3.3% previous.
Investors continue to digest US President Donald Trump’s tariff talks, with the renewed optimism over likely US trade deals lending some support to the US Dollar (USD), capping the Gold price recovery attempts.
Trump extended the ‘reciprocal tariffs’ deadline until August 1, allowing some of the US trade partners more time for trade negotiations and reaching a deal. This narrative continues to float the boat for the Greenback at the expense of the USD-denominated Gold price.
Meanwhile, trade war re-ignited as Trump threatened 25%-40% tariffs on 12 countries and 10% additional levies on all BRICS nations, including India, effective August 1.
“The lingering threat to inflation from tariffs will probably persuade the Fed to hold off cutting interest rates until next year, and this will put a lid on Gold prices,” Reuters reported, citing Hamad Hussain, climate and commodities economist at Capital Economics.
However, markets remain wary about a trade stand-off between the US and Japan and the US and South Korea, while taking account of Trump’s latest tariff announcement of 50% on Copper imports to take effect within 30 months.
Further, the US President said on social media that there would be announcements on Wednesday regarding “a minimum of 7 countries having to do with trade,” without specifying whether he would be announcing new deals or tariff letters.
Alongside trade talks, the Fed’s June meeting Minutes also take center stage this Wednesday, with markets looking forward to fresh hints on the timing of the next interest rate cut, given the heightened uncertain environment due to Trump’s tariffs.
Markets are now pricing in a 61% chance that the Fed will lower rates in September, down from about 73% seen a week ago, the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows.
Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart
Gold price broke the recent range to the downside after piercing through the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,322 on a daily closing basis on Tuesday.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) found foothold below the midline in the bearish territory, currently near 44.50, suggesting that the tide has clearly turned in favor of Gold sellers.
Therefore, a sustained move below the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement (Fibo) level of the April record rally at $3,297 is critical to extending the latest leg south toward the monthly low of $3,248.
The last line of defense for buyers is seen at the 50% Fibo support at $3,232.
Alternatively, any recovery attempts need acceptance above the 21-day SMA at $3,346.
Further up, the 23.6% Fibo level of the same advance at $3,377 could offer stiff resistance to Gold buyers.
The next topside hurdle is seen at the $3,400 threshold.
Economic Indicator
FOMC Minutes
FOMC stands for The Federal Open Market Committee that organizes 8 meetings in a year and reviews economic and financial conditions, determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. FOMC Minutes are released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve and are a clear guide to the future US interest rate policy.
The GBPJPY pair kept its positive stability above 66%Fibonacci correction level, to form a strong support at 198.80, resuming the rise and achieving new gains by reaching 199.80 level, approaching from the initial extra target at 200.35.
The continuation of stochastic fluctuation with the overbought level might push the price to target 200.35 level, which forces it to provide mixed trading until gathering the required extra positive momentum for achieving extra gains that might extend to 200.85 reaching the next main target at 201.55.
The expected trading range for today is between 199.00 and 200.35
Copper price attempted to surpass stochastic negativity by its stability yesterday above $4.9000 level, which forms 68.00%Fibonacci correction level, to reinforce its stability within the bullish channel’s levels, extending its support to $4.8400.
Note that the continuation of the main indicator’s contradiction might push the price to provide weak sideways trading, but the bearish correctional suggestion will remain valid, depending on the stability of the barrier at $5.1000, to expect testing the bullish channel’s support, then monitor its behavior to detect the expected trend on the upcoming trading.
The expected trading range for today is between $4.8650 and $5.0000
Trend forecast: Fluctuated within the bullish track
Bearish behavior today confirms a lower swing high on the daily chart from last Thursday. A lower swing high could lead to a lower swing low. Last week a higher swing low was established at $3,247. However, there is also an interim swing low from late May at $3,245. So, a decline below the lower price level would indicate a failure of support at those two swing lows. If that occurs, then selling pressure may intensify as it would signal likely further weakness as the near-term uptrend losses momentum.
Bullish Above $3,366
Nevertheless, an upside breakout above last week’s high of $3,366 will trigger a bullish reversal in gold. Both a weekly high will be reclaimed, plus a short downtrend line and 20-Day MA, now at $3,349. Although the uptrend has been testing dynamic support recently and it continues to do so, the near-term bull trend, starting from the November swing low, remains dominant unless there is a drop below $3,245. Key resistance for gold is at the June lower swing high of $3,451. But before that swing high is challenged an interim swing high at $3,396 needs to be exceeded.
Pennant Consolidation Not Complete
Another way of considering the consolidation pattern that has been forming for several months is that it is a large bull pennant pattern. The boundaries of the pennant are marked with purple lines on the chart. It shows that gold could continue to consolidate within the pennant for an estimated two or three more weeks before it may be ready to break out.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
If natural gas retains a pattern of higher swing lows, the uptrend has a chance of being sustained. Although a lower rising channel line has failed to retain support, there is a longer trendline slightly below Monday’s low of $3.28. A failure of support at the lower trendline opens the door to a 78.6% retracement target of $3.13 and an initial target for a falling ABCD pattern at $2.97. That price area may have some significance as it is also marked by an AVWAP price level at $2.95 currently.
The indicator is anchored at the February 2024 trend low, so it has long-term significance. However, it was also confirmed twice as support. Recently, the swing low in April found support at the AVWAP line (light blue) and earlier in October 2024. Since the ABCD target and AVWAP indicators point to a similar potential support area, it could act as a magnet for price.
Above $3.47 Gets Buyers Interested
On the upside, a two-day bullish reversal will trigger on a rally above Monday’s high of $3.47. An interim lower swing high is the first target at $3.57. It is followed by a lower swing high at $3.75. A sustained advance above $3.75 is needed before natural gas shows strength that could lead to a challenge of recent trend highs at $4.15.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
Trump’s tariffs, ranging between 25% and 40% from August 1, threaten to revive trade tensions that could weigh on global growth. China has warned it will retaliate against nations aligning with U.S. supply chain strategies, adding geopolitical risk but failing so far to trigger a gold breakout.
UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo noted that the tariff extensions are gold-negative while potential damage to Asian growth prospects remains gold-supportive, leaving traders with conflicting signals.
Federal Reserve Minutes Could Be the Trigger Traders Need
The market is now eyeing the Fed’s June meeting minutes on Wednesday for clues on interest rate policy, with traders searching for any dovish tilt that could weaken the dollar and lower yields, providing room for gold to rally.
Currently, Trump’s tariffs have fueled inflation concerns that complicate the Fed’s rate path, but without clear signals on policy easing, gold remains pinned in its current zone.
Treasury Yields and Gold Prices Remain Entangled
Rising Treasury yields, driven by renewed tariff threats, are creating headwinds for gold prices as the cost of holding bullion increases relative to yield-bearing assets. The 2-year yield remains stable near 3.907%, while long-end rates are inching up, adding pressure on gold unless inflation fears escalate significantly.
Gold Prices Forecast: Range Holds Until Catalyst Arrives
