• Gold price loses momentum to around $3,330 in Tuesday’s Asian session. 
• Trump unveiled new tariff rates, still open to additional trade negotiations. 
• The downside for yellow metal might be limited as central banks worldwide continue to buy gold. 

The Gold price ( XAU/USD) trades in negative territory near $3,330 during the Asian trading hours on Tuesday, pressured by a firmer US Dollar (USD). The precious metal edges lower on easing trade tension after US President Donald Trump announced an extension to the upcoming tariff deadline and suggested that he was still open to additional negotiations.

Market concerns eased after Trump hinted at the possibility of an additional trade deal and delays of the tariff deadline. Trump further stated that the August 1 deadline was “not 100% firm,” signaling he remained open to continuing to tweak the rates. Optimism surrounding Trump’s tariff policies lifts the Greenback and weighs on the USD-denominated commodities price, as a firmer USD makes Gold more expensive for foreign buyers. 

Gold traders will closely monitor further announcements in the White House’s trade negotiations. Any signs of renewed trade tensions and fears of a global trade war could boost the safe-haven flows, benefiting the Gold price.

Furthermore, rising major central banks’ gold buying might contribute to the yellow metal’s upside. According to a new report from the World Gold Council (WGC), global central banks have picked up on buying gold in May compared to other months. China’s central bank also added gold to its reserves in June for the eighth month in a row, official data from the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) showed on Monday.

“The PBoC in particular has been diversifying foreign exchange reserves substantially and an uptick in uncertainty and geopolitical risk may speed up the process,” said Zain Vawda, analyst at MarketPulse by OANDA.

Copper price attempted to surpass stochastic negativity by its stability yesterday above $4.9000 level, which forms 68.00%Fibonacci correction level, to reinforce its stability within the bullish channel’s levels, extending its support to $4.8400.

Note that the continuation of the main indicator’s contradiction might push the price to provide weak sideways trading, but the bearish correctional suggestion will remain valid, depending on the stability of the barrier at $5.1000, to expect testing the bullish channel’s support, then monitor its behavior to detect the expected trend on the upcoming trading.

The expected trading range for today is between $4.8650 and $5.0000

Trend forecast: Fluctuated within the bullish track

Key – 200-Day Line

Although the relationship to the 200-Day MA carries more weight than the trendline, it is not yet clear whether today’s low will be established as a swing low. The low for the day was very close to the next lower trendline. It looks like that line may continue to take precedence over the rising line that recently crossed above the 200-Day MA and was shown as resistance today. This might mean there could be two or a few days of consolidation around the confluence of the next lower uptrend line, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $3.51, and the 200-Day MA.

Relative Price Pattern

The relationship of the price of natural gas to the 200-Day MA is going to be key for finding clues in price behavior. If the 200-Day line fails to hold as a dynamic trend support area, then that would indicate that sellers dominate and therefore additional downside in prices could follow. The first sign of relative weaking would be on a daily closing price below the 200-Day MA, and that could happen today. At the time of this writing, trading has been occurring around the line could end Monday’s session either above or below the line.

Support at Risk but Holds Steady

Since October 2024 there have been only two instances where there was a daily closing price below the 200-Day MA. There were five days in April and then one day in May. In other words, natural gas remains in a support zone that could expand a little on the downside yet retain underlying buying pressure. A decisive daily close above the 200-Day line would show interest from buyers increasing. That would be for the short-term only, however, and further signs of strength would be needed to support a sustainable bullish reversal.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Bull Wedge Breakout Confirms

Since it looks like the bull wedge breakout may have completed the first daily pullback today, silver could be ready to move higher as the bull trend progresses. A decisive rally above today’s high of $37.23 provides the next sign of strength. That would put silver in prime position to trigger a continuation of the bull trend on a new trend high above $37.32.

A new high target zone is marked by a confluence range from $38.46 to $38.61. Note that the price zone is in the area around a top rising long-term channel line, and near the midline (dashed) of a shorter rising trend channel. Depending on when and if the price zone is eventually reached, the two lines can also provide clues to price action.

Weekly Bullish Signal May Dominate

Last week was the highest weekly closing price for silver since September 2011. The advance earlier on Monday triggered a weekly breakout above last week’s high of $37.08. That established the potential for a continuation of strength indicated by that rise. It is important to consider that a bullish reversal on the weekly chart was triggered last week as well.

Subsequently, strength was confirmed by a weekly closing price above the prior week’s high and a close in a relatively bullish position, near the high for the week. This is bullish behavior on the larger time frame. Therefore, the breakout of a bull wedge within the parameters of an advancing trend channel, and bouncing off support of the 20-Day MA, are all signs that buyers are taking more interest in silver.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

• Gold price kicks off the week on a bearish note after facing rejection again near $3,350.
• US Dollar finds fresh haven demand amid renewed trade jitters as Trump’s tariff letter to go out on Monday.
• Gold price breaches the 50-day SMA support as the daily RSI pierces below the midline.

Gold price is trading close to the $3,300 mark early Monday in a bearish start to a new week, having gained roughly 2% last week.

Gold price awaits tariff talks ahead of Fed Minutes  

Gold price has resumed its retreat from the weekly high of $3,366 on account of the reviving safe-haven demand for the US Dollar (USD) amid US President Donald Trump’s latest tariff concerns-led risk aversion.

Markets remain unnerved as Trump’s July 9 trade deal deadline approaches and his tariff letters are going to be sent to 12 countries this Monday for those who haven’t struck a trade deal with the United States (US).

Trump said last Thursday that the rates in the letters would go into effect August 1 and warned some could be as high as 70%.

The US President in April announced a 10% base tariff rate on most countries and higher “reciprocal” rates ranging up to 50%, with an original deadline of this Wednesday.

His latest warning of charging 10% additional tariffs on nations aligned with BRICS is sending jitters across the markets, leaving investors on the edge and scurrying to the safe-haven currency, the Greenback.

Meanwhile, the non-yielding Gold price is also reeling from the pain of a strong US employment report, which squashed hopes for aggressive Federal Reserve (Fed) easing.

Data on Thursday showed that the headline Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 147,000 in June, against expectations of a 110,000 increase and the previous revision of 144,000. The Unemployment Rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1% last month versus 4.3% expected and May’s 4.2%.

Looking ahead, Gold price will likely remain at the mercy of the tariff headlines and their impact on the USD price action.

Meanwhile, traders remain expectant of the Minutes of the Fed’s June meeting on Wednesday for more clarity on the timing of the next interest rate cut.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

Having faced rejection above the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) once again at $3,350, Gold price has breached the 50-day SMA support at $3,321.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is pointing lower below the midline, currently near 47, suggesting that more downside is opening up for the bright metal.  

Sellers need a daily candlestick close below the 50-day SMA to flex their muscles toward the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement (Fibo) level of the April record rally at $3,297.

A sustained move below the latter will target the monthly low of $3,248.

On the flip side, recapturing the 21-day SMA is critical to reviving the recovery from five-week lows.

Further up, the 23.6% Fibo level of the same advance at $3,377 could act as a tough nut to crack once again.

The next topside hurdle is seen at the $3,400 threshold.

Copper price began to form negative trading, depending on the continuation of forming a main barrier at $5.1000 level, approaching the initial correctional target near $4.9100.

The continuation of providing negative momentum by stochastic makes us expect forming a new sharp decline, to attempt to reach extra correctional stations that begin at $4.8650 and $4.8100, to confirm that the daily stability below the mentioned barrier is important to avoid any attempt for changing the current trend.

The expected trading range for today is between $4.8650 and $5.0000

Trend forecast: Bearish

Natural gas price surrendered to the negative pressure, to keep delaying the bullish attempts and forming new correctional trading by reaching $3.325, the stability of the trading below $3.600 will increase the negative pressures on the near period trading, to expect reaching $3.205 and $2.990.

Motivating the bullish attempts requires stepping above $3.450, to increase the chances for attacking the barrier at $3.600, which forms the main gate for detecting the main trend for the upcoming trading.

The expected trading range for today is between $3.000 and $3.450

Trend forecast: Bearish conditioned by the stability of $3.600

Platinum price confirmed delaying the bullish attack by its exit from the minor bullish channel’s levels, providing repeated negative pressure on the support that is represented by $1365.00 level, taking advantage of the stability of stochastic below 80 level and providing negative momentum.

Note that the bearish correctional scenario will remain valid in he current period trading, depending on forming a strong barrier at 1420.00 level, which makes us prefer targeting the correctional stations that begin at $1345.00 and $1330.00.

The expected trading range for today is between $1330.00 and $1400.00

Trend forecast: Bearish

Natural gas price surrendered to the negative pressure, to keep delaying the bullish attempts and forming new correctional trading by reaching $3.325, the stability of the trading below $3.600 will increase the negative pressures on the near period trading, to expect reaching $3.205 and $2.990.

Motivating the bullish attempts requires stepping above $3.450, to increase the chances for attacking the barrier at $3.600, which forms the main gate for detecting the main trend for the upcoming trading.

The expected trading range for today is between $3.000 and $3.450

Trend forecast: Bearish conditioned by the stability of $3.600

• Gold price edges lower to near $3,320 in Monday’s early Asian session. 
• Strong US June employment data weighs on the Gold as Fed rate cut odds decline. 
• Middle East geopolitical risks and renewed trade tensions might cap the downside for the Gold price. 

The Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts some sellers to around $3,320 during the early Asian session on Monday. The precious metal edges lower as the US June Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report altered the US Federal Reserve (Fed) policy expectations. Traders brace for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes later on Wednesday for fresh impetus. 

The US NFP came in stronger than expected, rising by 147,000 jobs in June from 144,000 in May (revised from 139,000). Additionally, the Unemployment Rate held steady at 4.1% in June. These reports indicated continued labor market resilience, reducing the possibility of the Fed’s near-term monetary accommodation. This, in turn, underpins the US Dollar (USD) and exerts some selling pressure on the non-yielding assets like Gold.

On the other hand, the potential downside of yellow metal might be limited amid the renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Israel stated late Sunday that the country’s military had attacked Houthi targets at three ports and a power plant in Yemen. Defence Minister Israel Katz confirmed the attack, saying they were carried out due to repeated attacks by the Iranian-backed rebel group on Israel. Any sign of escalation could boost the safe-haven flows, benefiting the gold price. 

Gold traders will closely monitor the developments surrounding tariff policies. CBBC reported on Sunday that US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that US President Donald Trump will send letters to some trading partners saying tariffs will return to April 2 levels on August 1 if there is no progress on the trade agreement. Renewed trade tensions might lift the Gold price in the near term.