• Gold price consolidates around $3,340 ahead of the US employment data for June.
• Surprisingly upbeat US JOLTS Job Openings data has supported the US Dollar.
• Market sentiment remains cautious as Trump’s tariff deadline on July 9 approaches.

Gold price (XAU/USD) trades in a tight range around $3,340 during the European trading session on Wednesday. The yellow metal struggles for direction as investors await the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for June, which is scheduled to be released on Thursday.

Investors will pay close attention to the US NFP data as a few Federal Reserve (Fed) officials have argued in favor of early interest rate cuts, citing labor market risks. “The Fed should not wait for the job market to crash in order to cut rates,” Fed Governor Christopher Waller said in an interview near the June’s last week.

Theoretically, lower interest rates by the Fed bode well for non-yielding assets, such as Gold.

Ahead of the US NFP data, investors await the ADP Employment Change data for June, which will be published at 12:15 GMT. The US private sector is expected to have added 95K fresh workers, significantly higher than 37K recorded in May.

Meanwhile, a decent recovery move in the US Dollar (USD), following the upbeat US JOLTS Job Openings data for May has also limited the Gold price’s upside. Higher US Dollar makes Gold an expensive bet for investors.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, recovers sharply to near 97.00 after snapping nine-day losing streak.

On the economic front, uncertainty surrounding the deadline of the reciprocal tariffs on July 9 and progress in US President Donald Trump’s so-called “Big Beautiful Bill” will continue to support the Gold price.

Gold technical analysis

Gold price trades near the upward-sloping trendline of an Ascending Triangle formation on a daily timeframe, which is placed from the April 7 low of $2,957. The horizontal resistance of the above-mentioned chart pattern is plotted from the April 22 high around $3,500. Theoretically, a breakdown of the asset below the upward-sloping trendline results in a sharp downfall.

The precious metal trades wobbles near the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around $3,342, suggesting that the near-term trend is uncertain.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates inside the 40.00-60.00 range, indicating a sideways trend.

Looking up, the Gold price would enter in an unchartered territory after breaking above the psychological level of $3,500 decisively. Potential resistances would be $3,550 and $3,600.

Alternatively, a downside move by the Gold price below the May 29 low of $3,245 would drag it towards the round-level support of $3,200, followed by the May 15 low at $3,121.

Gold daily chart

Rebound Above Key Lines

Both a prior interim swing low from May 29 and a downtrend line identify Monday’s low. It is interesting that the two lines intersect on the day they were touched. The bullish response led to a quick recovery above both a rising trendline and 50-Day MA, now at $3,320. Each line marked dynamic support for the uptrend. A quick recovery is bullish as it shows the trend structure being retained overall, after being at risk of failure. A daily close above the 50-Day line will confirm the bullish implications of the recovery. Nonetheless, additional signs of strength are needed.

Above $3,358 is Bullish

A decisive rally above Tuesday’s high will show strength and the potential for upside continuation of a short downtrend line breakout that triggered today. Confirmation of a reclaim of the 20-Day MA will occur on a daily close above the line. Otherwise, watch for a bullish reversal above an interim lower swing high at $3,396 to confirm strength. Reclaiming that price level will show growing demand that could lead to an attempt to rise above the recent $3,451 swing high.

Momentum Boost Missing

Since the swing low in May at $3,121, gold has seen slower momentum, which has been a concern. If it is going to have enough energy to bust through trend highs, bullish momentum needs to increase. Otherwise, consolidation may continue with small moves up and down. Since gold is showing new strength and upside potential, this is the time to see confirming bullish momentum. But if it fails to show even as the price of gold creeps higher, demand may not be strong enough to eventually break out above the record high of $3,500 without further consolidation occurring first.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Platinum price failed to achieve a new positive target, despite its stability within the bullish channel’s levels, affected by stochastic negativity that approaches from 50 level.

We expect the trading confinement in sideways range between the extra barrier at $1366.00 and the support level at $1333.00, to suggest the neutrality until the price success to surpass one of them, to provide confirmation signal for the trend, surpassing the barrier will reinforce the chances of recording new gains that might begin at $1400.00, while breaking the support will force it to form a bearish correctional waves, to expect reaching $1303.00 and $1275.00.

The expected trading range for today is between $1330.00 and $1366.00

Trend forecast: Neutral

• Silver price loses ground to near $36.10 in Wednesday’s Asian session. 
• US job openings show an unexpected increase in May, rising to 7.76 million.
• Elevated global uncertainty and geopolitical risks might cap the Silver’s downside. 

The Silver price (XAG/USD) edges lower to around $36.10 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday, pressured by a modest rebound in the US Dollar (USD). Traders will take more cues from the release of the US ADP Employment Change report for June, which is due later on Wednesday. 

The Greenback receives support from a better-than-expected increase in labor market demand. This, in turn, exerts some selling pressure on the USD-denominated commodity price, as a firmer USD makes Silver more expensive for foreign buyers. 

Data released on Tuesday showed that US JOLTS Job Openings rose to 7.76 million in May, compared to 7.395 million openings reported in April. This figure came in above the market expectation of 7.3 million.

On the other hand, escalating geopolitical tensions and elevated economic uncertainty could boost the safe-haven flows, benefiting the Silver price. US officials said that Iran was prepped to mine the Strait of Hormuz last month after Israeli strikes, but the mines were never deployed. US President Donald Trump stated that the US will “be there” unless Iran gives up its nuclear program.  

Additionally, rising demand for industrial uses might contribute to silver’s upside. According to the Silver Institute, global silver demand is estimated to reach a new record in 2025, led by industrial use in photovoltaics and electronics, as well as a recovery in jewelry and silverware. 

XAU/USD Current price: $3,340.43

• Tensions between US President Trump and Fed Chair Powell keep the USD under pressure.
• Upbeat United States data gave a breathe to the American currency.
• XAU/USD retains its bullish bias amid broad US Dollar weakness.

Spot Gold trades at around $3,340 a troy ounce in the American session, easing from its intraday peak of $3,357.99. The bright metal benefited from the broad US Dollar (USD) weakness resulting from headlines indicating that United States (US) President Donald Trump accused Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell of costing a fortune to the US amid the Fed’s decision to maintain interest rates at high levels.

In the meantime, Powell noted that the Fed would likely have lowered interest rates this year if it weren’t for President Trump’s significant policy changes, while speaking at the central banking forum in Sintra, Portugal, but refrained from responding to Trump’s attacks.

The USD benefited from better-than-anticipated US data released after Wall Street’s opening, as the June ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) printed at 49.0, better than the 48.5 previous and the anticipated 48.8. Meanwhile, May JOLTS Job Openings showed the number of job openings on the last business day of the month stood at 7.769 million, better than the 7.3 million expected.

Also, the US Senate passed President Trump’s tax and spending bill after more than 24 hours of negotiations by a slim margin. The vote was 50-50, and Vice President JD Vance cast the tie-breaking vote. The bill will now go to the House of Representatives.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The daily chart for the XAU/USD pair shows it keeps recovering from the low set on Friday at $3.281.90, yet also that sellers defended the upside at around a flat 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), which converges with the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the $3,452.51/$3,281.90 decline at around $3,350. The 100 and 200 SMAs maintain their upward slopes far below the current level, while technical indicators aim marginally higher, although within neutral levels. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement provides critical support at $3,325.

The 4-hour chart for XAU/USD shows technical indicators turned marginally lower after nearing overbought readings. At the same time, a flat 100 SMA stands a few bucks above the aforementioned 50% Fibonacci retracement, reinforcing the resistance area. The 20 and 200 SMAs, in the meantime, lack directional strength, comfortably developing well below the current level. Renewed buying interest beyond the intraday high exposes the next Fibonacci resistance at $3,373.50.

Support levels: 3,325.00 3,311.90 3,295.45

Resistance levels: 3,355.80 3,373.50 3,389.40

• Gold prices climb as US fiscal concerns over Trump’s proposed tax bill support bullion gains.
• Fed Chair Powell comments on monetary policy at the ECB Forum, maintaining a data-dependent stance.
• XAU/USD trades near $3,350 after US ISM and JOTS data beat estimates, raising expectations for a September rate cut.

Gold prices are rallying on Tuesday as traders digest remarks from policymakers currently gathered at the European Central Bank (ECB) forum in Portugal.

Focus has been on comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who has been facing increasing pressure from US President Donald Trump to reduce interest rates in July.

Despite Fed Chair Powell’s hawkish comments and better-than-expected US economic data, which have helped limit US Dollar losses, XAU/USD continues to trade around $3,350 at the time of writing.

Fed Powell’s comments included, “As long as the US economy is in solid shape, we think that the prudent thing to do is to wait and learn more and see what those effects might be.”

So far, Powell has adhered to the cautious script, but investors are aware that this could shift quickly if the data dictates otherwise.

Additionally, Powell stated that “It’s going to depend on the data, and we are going meeting by meeting,” Powell said. “I wouldn’t take any meeting off the table or put it directly on the table. It’s going to depend on how the data evolve.”

These comments suggest that the Fed is not rushing to cut rates, increasing the potential for a September cut. With the US ISM Manufacturing and JOLTs data beating expectations, a resilient US data remains supportive of a more data-dependent Fed, limiting US Dollar losses.

Global policymakers gather at the ECB forum, a key event for Gold

The focus on Tuesday was on the European Central Bank (ECB) Forum on Central Banking, currently underway in Sintra, Portugal. This rare convergence of the world’s top central bankers offers a critical opportunity for markets to assess the direction of global monetary policy.

ECB President Christine Lagarde, Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell are currently speaking on monetary policy.

The joint appearance is more than symbolic. Previous Forums have triggered coordinated messaging or revealed stark divergences in policy outlooks that have moved major asset classes, including Gold, currencies, and bonds.

With central banks navigating a delicate balance between inflation control and slowing growth, any nuance in today’s remarks could set the tone for the third quarter. 

Gold daily digest market movers: XAU/USD rallies on monetary, fiscal, tariff concerns

• The ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to print at 48.8 for June. The June data came in above expectations at 49, rising from 48.5 in May. 
• Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), where economists had expected around 7.3 million open positions as of May 31. Instead, the latest report revealed that job vacancies rose by 7.769 million, reflecting a resilient US labour market.
• President Donald Trump’s escalating criticism of Powell, including another sharply worded post on Truth Social on Monday, has raised concerns about the Fed’s independence. 
• Trump’s post read, “Jerome – You are, as usual, ‘too late.’ You have cost the USA a fortune – and continue to do so – you should lower the rate by a lot!” 
• The rhetoric has fueled speculation that Powell may either shift his tone or face replacement. 
• That prospect has pressured real yields lower and driven fresh demand for Gold as a hedge against policy uncertainty and US Dollar weakness. 
• President Trump issued a handwritten note with his signature to Fed Powell on Monday. The letter said that “Hundreds of billions of dollars are being lost! No inflation”. 
• Many now expect a shift toward looser monetary policy, which is putting downward pressure on real yields and making Gold more attractive.
• At the same time, the Trump administration’s proposed “Big Beautiful Bill,” with its estimated $3.3 trillion impact on the deficit, is sparking fears over long-term fiscal health. 
• The bill has drawn fire from across the political spectrum, including from Elon Musk and several Democratic leaders, who warn it could lead to inflation and a weaker US Dollar. Such a backdrop often prompts investors to turn to Gold as a hedge against instability and currency depreciation. The Senate is currently pushing to have the bill approved by Friday.
• With a July 9 tariff deadline fast approaching, the US is focusing on smaller, step-by-step trade deals rather than sweeping agreements, aiming to avoid triggering new tariffs. 
• While partial progress has been made with countries like the UK and China, talks with Japan and the European Union are still unsettled. The EU has shown openness to a blanket 10% tariff but is pushing for exceptions in sensitive sectors such as semiconductors and pharmaceuticals. 
• Meanwhile, President Trump has taken aim at Japan’s trade approach, especially on rice, warning that new tariffs may be imposed if no deal is reached in time.
• Trump expressed his frustration on Monday following a dispute over Japan’s reluctance to import rice from the US, which resulted in the US President stating that Japan has been “spoiled with respect to the United States of America.”
• All of this contributes to an environment where Gold looks relatively safe. Add to that the possibility of technical breakouts and increased buying interest, and it’s no surprise prices are pushing higher.

Gold technical analysis: XAU/USD bounces off trendline support, opening the potential for a retest of $3,400

After falling to trendline support from the January low on Monday, failure to gain traction below $3,250 allowed bulls to regain control of the imminent trend. With the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) currently providing support for the yellow metal at $3,320, XAU/USD is now threatening a break of the 20-day SMA at $3,351. The 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the April low-high move provides an additional barrier of resistance near $3,371.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 52, rising back above the neutral zone and pointing higher. This suggests a modest bullish bias. With the Gold price threatening the 20-day SMA, a clear break of $3,351 and a move above $3,371 could see prices retest the major psychological level of $3,400.

Gold (XAU/USD) daily chart

If bullish momentum fades and prices slip below $3,300, the 38.2% Fibo level could come into play at $3,292, with a deeper pullback driving Gold to the midpoint of the April move at $3,328.

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Natural gas price lost the positive momentum yesterday, affected by stochastic stability below 50 level, forcing it to form bearish waves to settle near the support base at $3.460 level, to form strong and important resistance to detect the main trend in the upcoming trading.

The stability of the current support will reinforce the chances for regaining the bullish bias, to expect its rally towards $3.600, then attempts to reach the extra initial target at $3.830, while the continuation of the negative pressures and its decline below the current support will confirm its move to the bearish track, which forces it to suffer several losses by targeting $3.320 and $3.140 level.

The expected trading range for today is between $3.450 and $3.600

Trend forecast: Bullish

• Gold price holds recovery from monthly lows near $3,250 early Tuesday.
• US Dollar attempts a tepid bounce as markets look to reposition ahead of Powell’s Sintra appearance.
• Gold price tests key 50-day SMA barrier at $3,320 on the road to recovery, daily RSI stays bearish.

Gold price has paused its recovery from monthly lows early Tuesday, as the US Dollar (USD) finds fresh demand while the market mood turns cautious.

Gold price awaits Powell for fresh cues on Fed rate cuts

Traders seem to resort to position adjustments on their USD shorts, bracing for US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell’s appearance for fresh cues on the timing of the next interest rate cut.

Fed Chair Powell participates in a policy panel alongside other key central banks’ chiefs at the European Central Bank (ECB) Forum on central banking in Sintra on Tuesday.

Markets continue to price in a 20% chance of the Fed trimming rates this month while predicting a 77% probability of a rate cut in September.

If Powell once again signals prospects of weaker-than-expected inflation, it would ramp up the Fed’s easing bets, triggering a fresh leg down in the US Dollar.

The dovish tone could help the non-yielding Gold price recover further ground.

However, if Powell surprises with some hawkish or prudent remarks, it could double down on the recent Gold price downtrend.

Besides, the focus will be also on the US JOLTS Job Openings data and US trade talks as the July 9 deadline approaches.

The Greenback faced a double-whammy on Monday and hit over three-year lows against its major currency rivals.

Increased concerns over US fiscal health ahead of the Senate’s efforts to pass President Donald Trump’s ‘big, beautiful’ spending bill weighed heavily on the US Dollar.

Meanwhile, investors remained wary over the potential US trade deals with Japan and the European Union (EU), especially after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that countries could be notified of sharply higher tariffs despite good-faith negotiations.

Furthermore, the record-rally on Wall Street indices also hit the sentiment around the Greenback, allowing Gold price to stage a decent comeback on Monday.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

Gold price tests the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,320, having found support near the $3,250 psychological level on Monday.

On the road to recovery, Gold price recaptured the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement (Fibo) level of the April record rally at $3,297 on a daily closing basis.

However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds below the 50 level, raising doubts about the prospects of a sustained recovery from monthly troughs.

If Gold price settles Tuesday above the 50-day SMA at $3,320, the turnaround could gather strength toward the 21-day SMA at $3,350.

Further north, the 23.6% Fibo level of the same ascent at $3,377 will be challenged again.

On the flip side, acceptance below $3,297, the 38.2% Fibo level will open the door toward the monthly lows of $3,248.

Natural gas price lost the positive momentum yesterday, affected by stochastic stability below 50 level, forcing it to form bearish waves to settle near the support base at $3.460 level, to form strong and important resistance to detect the main trend in the upcoming trading.

The stability of the current support will reinforce the chances for regaining the bullish bias, to expect its rally towards $3.600, then attempts to reach the extra initial target at $3.830, while the continuation of the negative pressures and its decline below the current support will confirm its move to the bearish track, which forces it to suffer several losses by targeting $3.320 and $3.140 level.

The expected trading range for today is between $3.450 and $3.600

Trend forecast: Bullish