• Gold price edges lower to near $3,265 in Monday’s early Asian session. 
• US-China trade agreement diminished investors’ appetite for Gold. 
• Safe-haven flows and optimism of a Fed rate cut might cap the Gold’s downside. 

The Gold price (XAU/USD) extends the decline to around $3,265 during the early Asian session on Monday. The precious metal tumbles to near one-month low after a United States (US)-China trade agreement boosted risk appetite. Investors await the Fedspeak later on Monday for fresh impetus. 

A trade deal reached between the US and China last week on how to expedite rare earth shipments to the US was viewed positively by markets. This, in turn, diminished bullion’s appeal as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, the ceasefire deal between Iran and Israel last week contributes to the yellow metal’s downside. 

“The slowdown in geopolitics has offered an opportunity for investors to start taking profit because of the forward-looking prospects of some kind of kinetic war with China and the developments in the Middle East,” said Daniel Pavilonis, senior market strategist at RJO Futures.

On the other hand, any renewed geopolitical tensions or trade uncertainty triggered by US President Donald Trump could prompt central bank buying and increasing demand for the precious metal, a traditional, safe-haven asset. 

Increased optimism of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut might also lift the non-interest-bearing bullion. Traders raise bets that the US central bank will cut rates more times this year and possibly sooner than previously expected as US data released Friday showed an unexpected fall in consumer spending. 

• Silver retreats from a high of $36.83 and trades at $36.16 as the US Dollar and yields edge higher.
• A bearish engulfing candle forms; weekly close above $36.00 remains key for bullish structure.
• A breakdown below $36.00 exposes $35.68 and $35.29; bulls must retake $36.83 to resume upside.

Silver price sinks more than 1% on Friday, ahead of the weekend, after refreshing a five-day high of $36.83, ahead of $37.00. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades at $36.16 due to a slight recovery in the US Dollar and rising US Treasury yields.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

Silver price retreated, forming a ‘bearish engulfing’ candlestick chart pattern, which opens the door for testing lower prices. It should be said that achieving a weekly close above $36.00 keeps the latter at a strong support level, with buyers eyeing higher prices.

Nevertheless, for a resumption of the uptrend, bulls need to reclaim the June 26 peak at $36.83. Once surpassed, the next zone of interest would be $37.00, followed by the yearly peak of $37.31. Conversely, if Silver slides below $36.50, expect a test of $36.00. Further downside lies in the June 24 daily low of $35.68, followed by the latest cycle low of $35.29.

XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily

Copper price took advantage of the positive factors by confirming the obstacle at $4.8900, to notice by the above image, forming a strong bullish rally achieving the main targets by reaching $5.0700 level and settles around it.

By the above image, we notice forming $5.1000 level to previous liquidity grab zones, to form an extra barrier against the bullish trading in the current period, to expect the price affection by the domination of the sideways bias domination temporarily, while the continuation of the fluctuation below this barrier might increase the chance for activating the bearish correctional track, which might target $4.9100 level.

The expected trading range for today is between $4.9600 and $5.1000

Trend forecast: Fluctuated with the bullish track

Short-term Weakness Follows Upside Reversal

Although today’s price action may be short-term bearish, bull signals generated over the past few days show improving demand and an increased chance that the price of crude oil can continue its rising trend. On Friday, a bullish trend continuation signal was confirmed by a daily close above the swing high at $64.67 (B). That close also confirmed a rising ABCD pattern that shows an initial target at $68.98. At that price the two rising measured moves, labeled AB and CD, will show symmetry as the change in price for the CD leg will match what was seen in the AB advance. A potential key pivot level would therefore be identified.

Confluence Zone Points to $68.79

But what makes that price zone interesting is not just the ABCD pattern target. There are two other price levels identified nearby. The 78.6% Fibonacci retracement is at $68.79, and the 200-Day MA is now at $68.98. Sometimes, when there is a confluence of indicators pointing to a similar price area, that area can act like a magnet and attract the price towards it. Whether it is eventually reached or not, it does show higher potential.

Double Bottom Potential Reversal

Furthermore, a double bottom trend reversal pattern confirmed on Monday with a rally above $65.32, the swing high from late April. That swing high ended the first rally following the April swing low at $55.23. Since the trend reversal pattern just triggered, there is strong potential for further upside, unless the breakout shows signs of failure. And that would only begin to be seen on a drop below the 20-Day MA, now at $62,73.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

What Happens Next is Key

Nonetheless, gold remains above support of a declining trendline and above a prior interim swing low of $3,245, which is part of the price structure of the short-term uptrend. A drop below that level would further confirm bearish price behavior. Gold has been declining for 10 days and therefore has exceeded previous pullbacks in time since the early-November 2024 bearish correction. That is an indication of sellers dominating but also a sign that the pullback is getting closer to possibly completing. However, if the decline exceeds 12 days, as seen in November, a deeper correction may be in the works.

Remains in Monthly Consolidation Pattern

It is also interesting to note that the market seems to be recognizing support around the intersection of two rising and one falling trendlines around $3,272. Gold is currently trading around that price level and therefore could close at it or slightly above. When stepping back gold can be seen in a consolidation phase for the past two months or so. This can be seen relatively clearly on a monthly chart (not shown).

For most of June the price of gold has remained with the price range of May, which is within the price range of April. Therefore, June looks likely to complete two inside months. Although June exceeded May’s high briefly, the breakout quickly failed. Moreover, June’s closing price looks likely to be near the low of the month, which is today’s low of $3,256.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Reversal from 200-Day MA Support Confirmed

The recent bearish correction provided a successful test of dynamic support at the 200-Day MA. A new higher swing low was established today, which confirms support at the 200-Day MA. On a relative basis, the recent pullback showed underlying strength as the price of natural gas was rejected at the 200-Day line, while the prior two tests of the line failed initially to show support. Confirming the support area is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $3.35.

New Trend High Potential

Today’s bullish reversal has the potential to lead to a new trend high above $4.15. A rising trend channel looks supportive of the potential for a target zone from $4.35 to $4.37 to eventually be reached. In addition, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement is a little higher at $4.46. However, the next price level to watch is a prior swing high at $3.84. A sustained breakout above that level opens the door to challenging and likely exceeding the $4.15 interim trend high.

Short-term Weakness Should Resolve to Upside

Given the bullish implications for the price of natural gas, short-term pullbacks will likely be used to accumulate, as traders anticipate the impact of the uptrend aligned on all time frames. The bullish trend channel shows a minimum potential upside. Once price bounces off one side of a channel there is the potential for it to eventually reach the other side. Notice that the top parallel line is confirmed with points. Very short-term support may be seen around the 20-Day MA and Thursday’s high of $3.60. Regardless, the chance for the above bullish scenario weakens if there is a drop below today’s low of $3.51.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

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• Silver price faces an intense sell-off due to multiple headwinds.
• Stable truce between Israel and Iran, and improving US-China trade relations weakens demand for safe-haven assets.
• Accelerating Fed dovish bets fail to support the Silver price.

Silver price slides over 2% to near $35.85 during European trading hours on Friday. The white metal faces a sharp selling pressure due to improvement in trade relations between the United States (US) and China and no signs of Israel-Iran truce violation.

During the European trading session, a spokesperson from the Chinese Ministry of Commerce confirmed that Beijing has agreed to expedite exports to rare earths to the US, while Washington will revoke non-tariff barriers.

On Thursday, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick also confirmed that China is going to “deliver rare earths to us” and “we’ll [Washington] take down our countermeasures”, Bloomberg TV reported.

Another reason behind severe weakness in the Silver price is the stability in ceasefire between the two Middle East nations since the announcement on earlier this week. US President Donald Trump announced a truce between Israel and Iran, and urged them not to violate the same.

The scenario of easing geopolitical tensions and global economic uncertainty diminishes the appeal of safe-haven assets, such as Silver.

Meanwhile, an increase in Federal Reserve (Fed) dovish bets due to tensions between Donald Trump and Chair Jerome Powell regarding the monetary policy stance has failed to offer support to the Silver price. Fed dovish bets escalate as investors expect Trump’s preferred Powell’s successor will support his economic agenda.

Theoretically, lower interest rates by the Fed bode well for non-yielding assets, such as Silver.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price forms a Head and Shoulder (H&S) chart pattern on a four-timeframe whose breakdown below the neckline results in a bearish reversal. The neckline of the chart pattern is plotted near the Tuesday’s low around $35.28.

The white metal holds above the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), suggesting that the long-term trend is still bullish.

The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) slides to near 40.00. A fresh bearish momentum would emerge if the RSI fails to hold above that level.

Looking down, the March 28 high around $34.60 will act as key support for the Silver price. On the upside, the fresh over-a-decade high around $37.32 will be the key barrier.

Silver daily chart

General Mills’ stock price (GIS) extended its losses in latest intraday trading, amid the dominance of the main downward trend as the price trades alongside the secondary short-term trend line, with ongoing negative pressure due to trading below the 50-day SMA, coupled with negative signals from the Stochastic, which return after the stock previously vented off some oversold saturation there. 

Therefore we expect the price to decline and target the support of $47.57, provided the resistance of $55.15 holds on.

Today’s price forecast: Bearish 

Iran-Israel Ceasefire and U.S.-China Rare Earth Deal Ease Geopolitical Risk

The Iran-Israel ceasefire brokered by President Trump earlier this week remains intact, reducing a significant geopolitical premium that previously supported gold.

Meanwhile, a White House official confirmed an agreement with China to expedite rare earth shipments, reducing concerns over supply disruptions ahead of the July 9 reciprocal tariff deadline. The dollar’s recent weakness has provided no support, underscoring gold’s current vulnerability as safe-haven demand continues to fade.

PCE Data in Focus: Will Inflation Force the Fed’s Hand?

Today’s release of the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data will be critical for traders assessing the Federal Reserve’s policy path. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin noted tariffs are likely to push inflation higher over the coming months, but recent reports indicate muted inflation pressures so far.

April’s headline PCE rose 2.1% year over year, while core PCE increased 2.5%. For May, Wells Fargo expects headline PCE to print at 2.3% YoY and core PCE at 2.6%, signaling a modest uptick.

A hotter-than-expected PCE print could reinforce the Fed’s higher-for-longer stance, potentially driving Treasury yields higher and adding downside pressure to gold, which remains unattractive in a high-rate environment due to its zero-yield nature. A softer print, however, may trigger dollar weakness and a relief bid in gold, but the loss of safe-haven flows will limit any sharp upside unless accompanied by new geopolitical tensions or a shift in Fed rhetoric.

Gold Loses Luster as Real Yields Remain Firm

Gold is down more than 2% this week, extending a decline of over $200 from its record highs in April. Analysts at City Index and FOREX.com note that while the current pullback helps unwind overbought technical conditions, the absence of strong catalysts and firm real yields continue to weigh on gold’s upside potential. Market participants are focusing on the interplay between inflation data and Fed commentary to gauge timing for potential rate adjustments.