Iran-Israel Ceasefire and U.S.-China Rare Earth Deal Ease Geopolitical Risk

The Iran-Israel ceasefire brokered by President Trump earlier this week remains intact, reducing a significant geopolitical premium that previously supported gold.

Meanwhile, a White House official confirmed an agreement with China to expedite rare earth shipments, reducing concerns over supply disruptions ahead of the July 9 reciprocal tariff deadline. The dollar’s recent weakness has provided no support, underscoring gold’s current vulnerability as safe-haven demand continues to fade.

PCE Data in Focus: Will Inflation Force the Fed’s Hand?

Today’s release of the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data will be critical for traders assessing the Federal Reserve’s policy path. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin noted tariffs are likely to push inflation higher over the coming months, but recent reports indicate muted inflation pressures so far.

April’s headline PCE rose 2.1% year over year, while core PCE increased 2.5%. For May, Wells Fargo expects headline PCE to print at 2.3% YoY and core PCE at 2.6%, signaling a modest uptick.

A hotter-than-expected PCE print could reinforce the Fed’s higher-for-longer stance, potentially driving Treasury yields higher and adding downside pressure to gold, which remains unattractive in a high-rate environment due to its zero-yield nature. A softer print, however, may trigger dollar weakness and a relief bid in gold, but the loss of safe-haven flows will limit any sharp upside unless accompanied by new geopolitical tensions or a shift in Fed rhetoric.

Gold Loses Luster as Real Yields Remain Firm

Gold is down more than 2% this week, extending a decline of over $200 from its record highs in April. Analysts at City Index and FOREX.com note that while the current pullback helps unwind overbought technical conditions, the absence of strong catalysts and firm real yields continue to weigh on gold’s upside potential. Market participants are focusing on the interplay between inflation data and Fed commentary to gauge timing for potential rate adjustments.

Despite the neediness of the GBPJPY pair to the positive momentum, but the main stability within the bullish channel’s levels that pushed it to form a new positive move, to hit the target at 198.80, facing 66.8%Fibonacci correction level as appears in the above image.

The current trading scenario depends on the strength of 198.80 level, if it settles we expect forming bearish correctional trading that might push it to suffer some losses by reaching 197.40 and 169.85, while the price success in achieving the breach and providing a positive close above it, will reinforce the chances for recording extra gains by its rally to 199.55.

The expected trading range for today is between 197.40 and 198.80

Trend forecast: Bearish

Copper price took advantage of the positive factors by confirming the obstacle at $4.8900, to notice by the above image, forming a strong bullish rally achieving the main targets by reaching $5.0700 level and settles around it.

By the above image, we notice forming $5.1000 level to previous liquidity grab zones, to form an extra barrier against the bullish trading in the current period, to expect the price affection by the domination of the sideways bias domination temporarily, while the continuation of the fluctuation below this barrier might increase the chance for activating the bearish correctional track, which might target $4.9100 level.

The expected trading range for today is between $4.9600 and $5.1000

Trend forecast: Fluctuated with the bullish track

• Gold price consolidates weekly losses below $3,330 early Friday, awaits US PCE inflation for fresh incentives.
• US Dollar holds rebound from multi-year lows amid US trade deals optimism and renewed hawkish Fed bets.
• Gold price battles 50-day SMA support, focus on the weekly closing amid bearish daily RSI.

Gold price is nursing weekly losses early Friday, with fresh downside risks emerging ahead of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data release.  

Gold price eyes on US trade deal talks, PCE inflation

As the US Dollar (USD) consolidates its overnight rebound from over three-year highs, Gold price challenges a critical daily support line.

Traders refrain from placing any directional positions in the Greenback and Gold price before the release of the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the core PCE Price Index, due later this Friday.

Markets are expecting the annual core PCE Price Index to advance by 2.3% in May, following a 2.1% growth in April, while on a monthly basis, the gauge is seen rising 0.1% in May, at the same pace as in April.

Hotter-than-expected core PCE readings could re-kindle expectations of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) lowering interest rates as early as July.

Markets are currently pricing in a 21% chance of a July Fed rate cut, while for a September reduction, the odds stand at 75%, the CME Group’s Fed WatchTool showed.

Therefore, the data will hold key to determining the timing of the next Fed rate cut, significantly impacting the USD-denominated and non-yielding Gold price.

The USD experienced good two-way businesses, falling to the lowest level since March 2022, following the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) report that US President Trump is considering selecting and announcing a successor for Fed Chair Jerome Powell earlier by September or October. 

Markets speculated that Trump’s attack threatening the Fed’s credibility could lead to the selection of a dovish successor, a so-called ‘lame duck’. This narrative weighed heavily on the buck.

However, the Greenback found its feet after a person familiar with the White House’s deliberations told Reuters on Thursday, “Trump has not decided on a replacement for Powell and a decision is not imminent.”

Further, hopes of US trade deals with the European Union (EU) and China before the July 9 deadline helped the US Dollar recover earlier losses.

A WSJ report cited late Thursday that EU officials are weighing lowering tariffs on US imports to woo Trump.

Meanwhile, a White House official said that the US has reached an understanding with China on how to expedite rare earth shipments to the US.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

Having defended the strong support of the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,325 so far this week, Gold price is yet again testing bids below that level at the press time.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is pointing south below the midline, currently trading near 46, suggesting that downside potential remains in place.  

A weekly closing below the 50-day SMA support could validate a fresh downtrend, with the door opening for a test of the 50% Fibonacci Retracement (Fibo) level of the April record rally at $3,232.

Ahead of that, the $3,295 demand area will be retested, which is the intersection of the weekly low and the 38.2% Fibo level of the same ascent.

On the flip side, the immediate resistance is seen at the 50-day SMA, above which the 21-day SMA hurdle at $3,354 will be put to test.

Recapturing the 21-day SMA is critical for resuming the recovery from two-week troughs.

The next upside hurdle is aligned at the 23.6% Fibo level at $3,377.

Gold buyers will then target the $3,400 threshold once the 23.6% Fibo resistance is decisively taken out.

• Silver trades flat in early Asia after hitting $36.83 weekly high; poised for 1.80% weekly gain.
• Bullish trend intact with higher highs and lows; RSI shows buyers consolidating.
• Key resistance lies at $37.00 and $37.31 YTD high; support seen at $36.00 and $35.29.

Silver price turns flat as Friday’s Asian session begins, trades near $36.60, virtually unchanged, compared to Thursday’s June 26 daily close. The XAG/USD appears poised to close the week with gains of over 1.80%.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

Silver remains upward biased as Friday’s Asian session begins, posting back-to-back bullish days, which pushed the grey metal towards a weekly high of $36.83. XAG/USD has achieved a successive series of higher highs and higher lows, hinting that the grey metal is headed upwards.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) turned flatlines after edging higher for three consecutive days, in bullish territory. This indicates that buyers are taking a respite ahead of testing higher prices.

If XAG/USD climbs past $37.00, look for the next resistance at the yearly peak of $37.31. A breach of the latter will expose the $38.00 figure. Conversely, if Silver slides below $36.50, expect a test of $36.00. Further downside lies in the June 24 daily low of $35.68, followed by the latest cycle low of $35.29.

XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily 

Signs of Strength

There were a couple other signs of strength today to be aware of. At the time of this writing, trading continues in the upper half of the day’s range. Therefore, the day may end with natural gas in a similar position. That would set up a bullish hammer candlestick pattern. Although it didn’t form at the bottom of the trend, it is close. Also, today’s high was $3.60, slightly above Wednesday’s high of $3.59. This shows strength and is a sign that buyers are moving back into the market.

Test of 200-Day MA Shows Relative Strength

Of course, the 200-Day MA represents potentially significant dynamic long-term trend support. It was tested twice recently. Once during the decline in April and again in May. Notice that that first approach fell further below the line and for more days than the second test. In both instances, the bullish recovery came quickly, once it started. If yesterday’s low turns into a swing low, it will show strength relative to the two prior declines to the 200-Day line.

Bull Breakout Above $3.60

A bull breakout will be indicated on a decisive rally above today’s high of $3.60. Near term support is at the 50-Day MA and the low for today, which is $3.40. An area of potential resistance is at the 20-Day MA, now at $3.65, and Tuesday’s high of $3.68. Further strengthening would change the slope of the rising trend channel as currently identified in green. The midline of the channel would be a first target zone if the bulls can retain control.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

XAU/USD Current price: $3,332.20

• US President Trump urged Fed Chair Powell to trim interest rates.
• The US will release May PCE inflation figures on Friday.
• XAU/USD holds within familiar levels with a limited downward potential.

Spot Gold advanced throughout the first half of Thursday, meeting buyers in the $3,350 region. It quickly returned to its recent comfort zone around $3,320-30, where it stays in the American session, despite broad US Dollar (USD) weakness.

Market players paid no attention to the safe-haven metal, as the focus shifted to potential interest rate cuts in the United States (US). President Donald Trump criticised Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell and claimed he is already studying his replacement, despite Powell’s mandate ending in May 2026.

US President Trump has long urged Chair Powell to trim interest rates. “We have no inflation. We have a tremendous economy. Hundreds of billions of dollars of tariff money is pouring in. Factories are being built,” he said in a press conference following the NATO Heads of State and Government Summit in the Netherlands. He then added he doubts about Powell’s mental abilities and called him names.

The USD plunged while stocks rallied amid speculation the Fed would end up trimming rates before previously anticipated.

Mixed US data did not help the Greenback. The country reported that Durable Goods Orders rose 16.4% in May, much better than the -6.6% posted in April. The Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was confirmed at -0.5% in the first quarter of the year, worse than the preliminary estimate of -0.2%.

Additionally, Initial Jobless Claims rose by 236K in the week ended June 21, beating expectations. Finally, the Goods Trade Balance posted a deficit of $96.6 billion in May, worse than the -$88.5 billion expected.

On Friday, the US will release the May Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, foreseen stable on a monthly basis, albeit marginally higher on a yearly one.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, the risk skews to the downside for Gold, although the downward momentum remains limited. The daily chart shows that XAU/USD met sellers around a flat 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,355.80, while holding well above bullish 100 and 200 SMAs. Technical indicators, in the meantime, seesaw around their midlines without clear directional strength.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the XAU/USD pair remains below its 20 and 100 SMAs, but holds above a directionless 200 SMA, with slides below the latter being quickly reverted. Technical indicators turned higher, but with the Momentum indicator within neutral levels and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator at around 45, falling short of anticipating another leg north.

Support levels: 3,311.90 3,295.45 3,279.2

Resistance levels: 3,355.80 3,374.45 3,389.40

The political backdrop has added volatility.

Recent remarks from former President Donald Trump have raised questions about the tenure of Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Trump’s comments suggested a potential leadership change at the central bank by September, casting doubt on the Fed’s policy independence. Although Powell reiterated a data-driven stance during congressional testimony, market participants viewed the political rhetoric as a possible signal of future easing.

This combination of declining yields, a weaker dollar, and institutional uncertainty continues to support precious metals, though gains in both gold and silver remain measured pending further economic data.

Ceasefire Dims Safe-Haven Demand but Fails to Derail Rally

Still, the gold rally has remained contained, with resistance evident near the $3,345–$3,360 zone. A ceasefire between Middle Eastern powers has calmed geopolitical concerns, fueling a mild recovery in equities and limiting demand for safe-haven flows into bullion. Silver similarly faces resistance near $36.42, with traders cautious ahead of key macroeconomic releases.

Data and PCE Inflation Gauge Take Center Stage

Investor attention now turns to a batch of U.S. economic data, including jobless claims, durable goods orders, and final Q1 GDP figures. However, the core focus is Friday’s release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index—a critical inflation metric for the Fed.

A softer print could reinforce the case for monetary easing and push gold higher, while a hotter number might stall the current uptrend. Gold and silver remain range-bound for now, but policy clarity and inflation data could define their next move.

The GBPCHF affected by stochastic rally to the overbought level, forming some bullish correctional waves, recording 1.1015 level, but the main stability within the bearish channel’s levels, which represents 1.1055 level for the extension of the extra main resistance for the stability of the moving average 55 above the current trading, these factors makes us wait for preferring the bearish bias domination, which might target 1.0975 and 1.0955.

Note that the price rally above the bearish channel’s resistance and provides a positive close, will confirm its move to the bullish track, to begin targeting several positive stations by reaching 1.1095 initially.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.0955 and 1.1040

Trend forecast: Bearish

• Gold pared some losses favoured by broad-based US Dollar weakness.
• Trump’s attacks on the Fed’s independence are undermining confidence in the US Dollar and boosting demand for Gold.
• XAU/USD is on a bullish correction towards $3,365, with the broader bearish trend from mid-June highs intact.

Gold’s rebound from Tuesday’s lows suggests that there is a strong support area at the $3,290-$3,300. The precious metal is trimming previous losses on Thursday, buoyed by a more favourable context, with US Treasury yields and the US Dollar tumbling.

The easing geopolitical concerns have undermined demand for the safe-haven Gold this week, but the yellow metal is drawing support on Thursday from US Dollar weakness on the back of increasing concerns about the Federal Reserve’s independence.

US President Donald Trump called Fed Chairman an “average mentally person”, after Powell reaffirmed his cautious stance towards further monetary easing, and aired the possibility of announcing his replacement way before the end of his term. The market has seen this move as a clear threat to the bank’s independence, which has brought the “Sell America” trade back to the table.

Technical analysis: In a bullish correction within a broader bearish trend

The rebound from Tuesday’s lows at $3,295 has extended beyond the $3,340 previous support (June 20 lows), confirming a deeper bullish correction. The pair night be on a C-D leg of a small Gartley pattern, heading to the descending trendline resistance from mid-June highs, at $3,450, now at $3,365.

A confirmation above this level would signal a trend shift and move the focus towards the $3,400 area, which capped bulls on June 17, 18, and 22.

On the downside, a rejection at the mentioned trendline might seek support at the intraday low $3,330 ahead of the previously mentioned $3,295 (June 9,24 lows)

(This story was corrected on June 26 at 11:19 GMT to say that the gold is targeting $3,365 in the title, and $3,300 in the first paragraph and not $3.365 and $3.300, as previously reported.)

XAU/USD Hourly Chart