• Gold pared some losses favoured by broad-based US Dollar weakness.
• Trump’s attacks on the Fed’s independence are undermining confidence in the US Dollar and boosting demand for Gold.
• XAU/USD is on a bullish correction towards $3,365, with the broader bearish trend from mid-June highs intact.

Gold’s rebound from Tuesday’s lows suggests that there is a strong support area at the $3,290-$3,300. The precious metal is trimming previous losses on Thursday, buoyed by a more favourable context, with US Treasury yields and the US Dollar tumbling.

The easing geopolitical concerns have undermined demand for the safe-haven Gold this week, but the yellow metal is drawing support on Thursday from US Dollar weakness on the back of increasing concerns about the Federal Reserve’s independence.

US President Donald Trump called Fed Chairman an “average mentally person”, after Powell reaffirmed his cautious stance towards further monetary easing, and aired the possibility of announcing his replacement way before the end of his term. The market has seen this move as a clear threat to the bank’s independence, which has brought the “Sell America” trade back to the table.

Technical analysis: In a bullish correction within a broader bearish trend

The rebound from Tuesday’s lows at $3,295 has extended beyond the $3,340 previous support (June 20 lows), confirming a deeper bullish correction. The pair night be on a C-D leg of a small Gartley pattern, heading to the descending trendline resistance from mid-June highs, at $3,450, now at $3,365.

A confirmation above this level would signal a trend shift and move the focus towards the $3,400 area, which capped bulls on June 17, 18, and 22.

On the downside, a rejection at the mentioned trendline might seek support at the intraday low $3,330 ahead of the previously mentioned $3,295 (June 9,24 lows)

(This story was corrected on June 26 at 11:19 GMT to say that the gold is targeting $3,365 in the title, and $3,300 in the first paragraph and not $3.365 and $3.300, as previously reported.)

XAU/USD Hourly Chart

The GBPCHF affected by stochastic rally to the overbought level, forming some bullish correctional waves, recording 1.1015 level, but the main stability within the bearish channel’s levels, which represents 1.1055 level for the extension of the extra main resistance for the stability of the moving average 55 above the current trading, these factors makes us wait for preferring the bearish bias domination, which might target 1.0975 and 1.0955.

Note that the price rally above the bearish channel’s resistance and provides a positive close, will confirm its move to the bullish track, to begin targeting several positive stations by reaching 1.1095 initially.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.0955 and 1.1040

Trend forecast: Bearish

• Silver trades flat-to-lower as safe-haven flows ease on Iran–Israel ceasefire news.
• XAG/USD trades near $35.75, down 0.46%, trapped in Tuesday’s range.
• Price tests key trendline and Bollinger Band support, breakdown may expose $34.00 next.

Silver (XAG/USD) is showing muted price action on Wednesday, slipping modestly lower but staying within Tuesday’s range. At the time of writing, the metal is trading around $35.75 during the American session, down roughly 0.46% on the day. The subdued movement reflects fading safe-haven demand, as signs of easing geopolitical tensions — particularly the truce between Iran and Israel — have cooled the recent risk premium that helped drive Silver to multi-year highs.

Silver is showing early signs of technical fatigue after a strong multi-week uptrend that saw the metal climb from sub-$30 levels to 13-year highs near $37.00. One of the key red flags came from a bearish divergence between price action and the Relative Strength Index (RSI). While spot Silver pushed to fresh multi-year highs last week, the RSI peaked earlier and has since trended lower. With RSI now easing toward 56, the bullish momentum appears to be moderating, inviting cautious profit-taking from short-term traders

Today’s price action sees XAG/USD trading near $35.75, modestly lower on the day, as it currently tests the lower boundary of a well-defined ascending channel. This structure has underpinned bullish momentum since mid-April. This support zone aligns closely with the middle Bollinger Band (20-day SMA), currently around $35.71. A decisive daily close below this confluence area could be the first concrete signal that bulls are losing grip.

The Bollinger Bands have started to contract after widening sharply during Silver’s rally. Such narrowing typically precedes a significant directional move. If the lower channel support around $35.60–$35.70 gives way, it could open the door toward deeper retracements near $34.00.

Volatility, as captured by the Average True Range (ATR 14), has also tapered off to 0.78, suggesting that the explosive moves of early June are giving way to more measured price action. This could mean that the market is entering a consolidation phase or preparing for a breakout reversal.

That said, the broader trend remains bullish unless a confirmed breakdown occurs. Traders will be watching whether bulls can defend this technical inflection zone and bounce back toward $37.00, or if the weight of profit-taking and reduced safe-haven flows forces a steeper correction.

• Gold remains rangebound between $3,300 and $3,450, caught in indecision as safe-haven bids and bearish technicals battle for control.
• While a fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran holds, initial violations and pending U.S.-Iran nuclear talks keep geopolitical risks alive.
• A confirmed break above $3,370 targets $3,400 next, while failure to hold $3,300 may drag Gold down to $3,250 or $3,200.

Gold side steps as uncertainty remains “uncertain”

Gold (XAU/USD) has not yet given any confirmation of momentum to the upside, stuck between the $3,450 and $3,300 levels as traders weigh opposing forces. After a strong rebound from last week’s lows near $3,300, the yellow metal has struggled to sustain momentum. The upside has been capped as inflation data cooled and Treasury yields steadied.

Currently, Gold is hovering at the discount level of the overall range, signaling a bearish environment. Though Gold is in a bearish territory, this is still not yet a confirmed reversal to the downside, most especially, the tensions in the middle east, Israel and Iran, has not yet fully de-escalated, giving Gold reason to push up.

Gold’s price action now reflects indecision, with neither bulls nor bears taking full control ahead of high-impact events and amidst geopolitical tensions.

Bearish scenario on-point

This scenario was also outlined in my latest article on Gold, Gold stalls despite war headlines: Bullish and bearish scenarios to watch & Dollar, majors, indices and Gold gameplan for this week.

Before:

After:

The narrative behind this is that if the ceasefire gains traction and Iran steps back and opens door to diplomacy, risk appetite may rebound, dragging gold down. A clean break and close below $3,300 would open downside potential to the $3,250 level or even $3,200. Also, the rejection of the midrange acted as a technical catalyst that weighs Gold down.

U.S.-Iran Talks On The Way Trump announced U.S.–Iran talks scheduled for next week and mediated with Qatar’s help, focusing on nuclear and broader peace matters.

Qatar’s mediation was pivotal in securing Iran’s support for the ceasefire after discussing terms with both Tehran and President Trump.

Both sides acknowledged the truce, but initial violations were reported: Iran fired missiles at Beersheba and Israel responded with strikes on Iranian facilities – each accusing the other of breach.

Technical outlook

Bullish scenario

If Gold gains ground above the $3,330 level and a push through above the previous mid-range or equilibrium level, we might see further traction on Gold.

Another confluence that could lift Gold is if the tensions between Israel & Iran escalates and oil gets affect, this could raise safe-haven inflow on Gold.

Targets:

• $3,370 – Midrange Level.
• $3,400 – Psych Level / Immediate High.

Bearish scenario

If Gold does not get an upside follow-through with a series of bullish candles above $3,340, Dollar gains traction, which is unlikely for now, and Gold breaks below $3,310 – $3,300 level, this could send the bullion for a renewed downside.

Targets:

• $3,300 – Psych Level / Near Immediate Low.
• $3,250 – May 29 – Significant Low.

Final thoughts

While Gold remains fundamentally supported by long-term macro themes like central bank buying and inflation uncertainty, near-term direction will be decided by upcoming U.S. data and the Fed’s policy signals.

A breakout from the current range could provide a cleaner directional bias. Until then, patience is key.

A confirmed break on either side will likely invite strong momentum. Bias remains neutral to bullish unless $3,300-$3,400 is broken convincingly.

• Silver rebounds from $35.68, trades near $36.25 as month-end flows weigh on US Dollar.
• Bullish ‘morning star’ forms; RSI stays positive, signaling potential upward momentum.
• Resistance at $36.42 and $37.31; support at $35.29 and 50-day SMA at $33.95.

Silver price advances by nearly 1% on Wednesday, as the US Dollar depreciates due to month-end flows, along with expectations of falling US Treasury yields. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades at $36.25, after bouncing off daily lows of $35.68.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical Analysis

Even though Silver dipped to a new two-week low of $35.29 last Friday, the grey metal found bids, which pushed the spot price above $36.00 and formed a ‘morning star’ three-candle chart bullish pattern. Despite this, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remained flat in bullish territory, suggesting that the pair is neutral to upwardly biased. If XAG/USD clears key resistance levels, then the uptrend could resume.

The first key area of interest will be the June 20 high of $36.42. Once surpassed, the next stop would be $37.00, followed by the multi-year high of $37.31.

On the flip side, if XAG/USD tumbles below the June 24 low of $35.29, expect a pullback all the way towards the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $33.95.

XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily

Pfizer’s stock price (PFE) rose in latest intraday trading and tackled the pivotal resistance of $24.50, amid the dominance of the upward correctional wave in the short term, with ongoing positive pressure due to trading above the 50-day SMA, coupled with positive divergence from the Stochastic after reaching oversold levels compared to the stock’s movements. 

Therefore we expect the stock to rise as long as it breaches the aforementioned resistance of $24.50, targeting the next one at $26.50.

Today’s price forecast: Bullish

Key Dynamic Support Being Tested

Nevertheless, what happens next will be more revealing. Dynamic support for the intermediate uptrend, beginning from January, is being tested. Gold needs to recover from support around the 50-Day MA if it is to retain the current trajectory. A decline below Tuesday’s low of $3,295 puts it at risk of dropping below an interim swing low at $3,293, which is part of the near-term uptrend that began following a test of support at the 50-Day MA. Other lower price levels that subsequently could see signs of support include the intersection of an uptrend and downtrend line (blue) around $3,272. There is also a top rising trend channel line (purple) crossing at the same point. Then, a little lower is a prior interim swing low at $3,245.

Several Lines Converge

The purple rising channel represents the upswing that began from the October 2023 lows. A decisive bull breakout of the channel triggered on April 10, followed by a retracement that successfully tested the price area around the line as support. The current pullback is a second test of support near the top purple channel line.

It represents a longer trend than a shorter rising trend channel (blue) that began from the January lows. The point of highlighting where the three lines meet is that a decline below $3,272 will mean that both a downtrend line and top channel line have been broken. If price then stays below that price level, it will confirm the bearish sentiment.

Strength Needed Above $3,370

Alternatively, support around the 50-Day MA holds and leads to a bullish reversal. An early sign of strength would be seen on a rally above today’s high, however, that would not be convincing enough to confirm a bullish reversal. Rather, a decisive rally above Tuesday’s high of $3,370 would be needed.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Drop Below 4-Week Support

On a weekly basis, this week’s decline put the price of natural gas at a four-week low, confirming a bearish reversal following last week’s trend high of $4.15. The decline below the lower uptrend line shows the potential for a bearish continuation as the current uptrend shows early signs of possible failure. However, there is also a good chance that support will be seen around the 200-Day MA and lead to a bullish reversal. Today is the fourth consecutive day of declines and bearish momentum started near last week’s high. So, there is a chance that selling momentum will decline. Although there is no sign of it yet.

Measured Move Support Completion of Correction

It is also interesting to note that the prior bearish correction that followed the initial rally from the April swing low saw the price of natural gas decline by $0.74 (or 19.3%). That puts the current decline close to a match as it has led to a drop of as much as $0.78 (or 18.9%). When comparing price, the current decline exceeded the previous decline, but natural gas is now very close to matching on a percentage basis. Once there are similar swings, there is the potential for support to be seen.

Weekly Closing to Provide Clue

Since there are only two more trading days for the week, there is a risk that natural gas confirms the recent bearish signals on a weekly basis. As noted above, support for the past several weeks was broken this week. The lower and therefore more significant weekly low was at $3.45, while last week’s low was $3.63.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

XAU/USD Current price: $3,333.87

• An extended truce in the Middle East maintains financial markets optimistic.
• The United States will release the final estimate of the Q1 GDP on Thursday.
• XAU/USD holds on to familiar levels near weekly lows, resistance at $3,355.30.

Spot Gold spent Wednesday stuck around the $3,320 mark, with financial markets lacking a fresh catalyst. The XAU/USD managed to advance during the American session amid broad US Dollar weakness, but held within familiar levels ahead of the Asian opening.

Investors maintain their optimism as the Middle East ceasefire seems to be holding. Easing tensions, however, do not mean the conflict is over. According to some leaked documents, recent attacks on the Iranian nuclear program just delayed Iran’s plans by a few months. Israel, on the contrary, believes the setback reached many years.

United States (US) President Donald Trump, in the meantime, noted that the country’s nuclear capabilities have been “obliterated,” according to Reuters. At the same time, Tehran’s atomic chief, Mohammad Eslami, said that they would restore their nuclear program.

Beyond geopolitical woes, market players eyed Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell’s testimony on monetary policy. On his second day at Congress, Powell repeated most of what he said on Tuesday, noting that inflation expectations have come down a bit from April, although he is still willing to wait to see the impact of tariffs on prices before acting.

Thursday will bring some relevant US data, as the country releases May Durable Goods Orders and the final estimate of Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The daily chart for the XAU/USD pair shows it holds at the lower end of Tuesday’s range, although further retreating from its weekly low. The same chart shows technical indicators have turned flat within neutral levels, reflecting the latest bounce rather than suggesting additional gains ahead. The pair would face immediate resistance at around a flat 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) currently at $3,355.30. Finally, the 100 and 200 SMAs maintain their firm bullish slopes well below the current level, keeping the long-term trend alive.

The 4-hour chart shows XAU/USD keeps finding near-term support at around a directionless 200 SMA, while the 20 and 100 SMAs maintain modest downward slopes above the current level. Technical indicators, in the meantime, have turned flat within negative levels after correcting oversold conditions, suggesting buyers have limited power at the time being.

Support levels: 3,311.90 3,295.45 3,279.20

Resistance levels: 3,355.30 3,374.45 3,389.40

• Silver (XAG/USD) trims losses near $35.80 after hitting an intraday low of $35.28 on Tuesday.
• Last week’s surge to 13-year highs fueled by safe-haven flows and tight supply now faces healthy profit-taking.
• Spot price tests critical rising trendline and 21-day EMA support near $35.50–$35.60.

Silver (XAG/USD) reverses course during the American session on Tuesday after spending most of the day drifting lower from an intraday high of $36.20. At the time of writing, the metal is trading near $35.80, slightly above the session low of $35.28, but still down around 0.65% on the day as traders test key trendline support.

Last week, Silver pushed to fresh 13-year highs as investors flocked to the metal for its safe-haven appeal. Strong industrial demand and tightening supply added fuel to the surge. However, the momentum has cooled since then, with the recent dip reflecting healthy profit-taking and reduced liquidity in the market.

From a technical perspective, Silver’s daily chart remains constructive but is flashing early signs of fatigue. Tuesday’s drop pulled XAG/USD back toward its rising trendline support, which has guided the uptrend since mid-April. This trendline, reinforced by the 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $35.50–$35.60, has repeatedly acted as a springboard for fresh buying.

A decisive daily close below this zone would raise the risk of a deeper correction, potentially exposing the next key support around $34.50 — a former resistance level now expected to act as a solid floor if the pullback deepens.

Momentum indicators highlight this tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has cooled to 56.50, down from recent overbought conditions but still comfortably above the neutral 50 level, suggesting the broader trend retains a bullish bias. Meanwhile, the MACD histogram has shifted marginally negative, indicating a waning upward momentum in the near term. Price action shows repeated long lower wicks on recent candles, underscoring that bulls continue to step in aggressively on dips.

If Silver manages to sustain a bounce from current levels, the rally could regain traction toward $36.50, with a potential extension toward the psychological $37.00 barrier if buying pressure intensifies.