Natural gas price activated the bearish correctional track after recording $4.160 level, affected by stochastic exit from the overbought level, activating the attempts of gathering gains by reaching $3.900.
Depending on forming extra support at $3.830 level, to reduce the risk of suffering extra losses, to keep waiting for gathering the positive momentum, which allows it to renew the bullish attempts and reaching $4.050 and $4.220.
The expected trading range for today is between $3.850 and $4.050
Silver found support at $35.50 but seems unable to extend beyond $36.00.
Risk aversion is easing in the early European session, which is weighing on precious metals.
XAG/USD is forming a potential bearish H&S with its neckline at $35.45-$35.50,
Silver (XAG/USD) found a bottom near 35.50 following a reversal from multi-year highs at $37.30 last week, but the precious metal is struggling to find significant acceptance above $36.00 on Monday as the risk sentiment improved somewhat at the European session opening.
European bourses have opened with gains, except the UK FTSE100, and Wall Street futures are turning positive, despite ongoing fears about Iran’s retaliation to this weekend’s US attacks.
Iran’s army leaders have vowed severe consequences to the US, but so far, the response to the massive bombings of Iran’s key nuclear sites has been limited to missile strikes on Israel’s soil, sparing US interests in the region. This keeps hopes of avoiding a wider regional war alive for now, which is boosting equities and weighing on safe assets, such as silver.
XAG/USD: Potential Head & Shoulders formation
A view of the 4-hour charts, and we see a frail recovery from Friday’s lows at $35.50. The Relative Strength Index remains well into negative territory, suggesting that the bearish structure of the last three days is still in play, with previous support, at the $36.10 area (June 13, 16, and 17 highs), now acting as resistance.
Above here, the next resistance area is at the June 19 high at $36.82. A rejection here might form a bearish head & Shoulders, a potential topping pattern that would bring the focus back to the key $35.45-$35.50 area, June 12 and 20 lows, and the neckline of the H&S pattern.
A break of that level confirms that the bullish cycle from early May lows is over and that a deeper correction is in progress, with the next bearish targets at $34.10 (June 4 low) and the $32.70 area, which held prices on May 22, 27, 28, and 30.
XAG/USD 4-Hour Chart
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Natural gas price activated the bearish correctional track after recording $4.160 level, affected by stochastic exit from the overbought level, activating the attempts of gathering gains by reaching $3.900.
Depending on forming extra support at $3.830 level, to reduce the risk of suffering extra losses, to keep waiting for gathering the positive momentum, which allows it to renew the bullish attempts and reaching $4.050 and $4.220.
The expected trading range for today is between $3.850 and $4.050
Silver price gains ground to around $36.10 in Monday’s early Asian session.
US attacked Iran over the weekend, boosting the white metal.
The preliminary US S&P Global PMI for June is due later on Monday.
The Silver price (XAG/USD) edges higher to near $36.10, snapping the three-day losing streak during the Asian trading hours on Monday. The white metal attracts some buyers amid the rising tensions in the Middle East after the US bombed Iran’s nuclear sites.
The United States carried out airstrikes on three nuclear sites in Iran early Sunday despite US President Donald Trump’s longtime promises to avoid new foreign conflicts. Iran has vowed to respond, saying it “reserves all options,” while Trump said that any Iranian retaliation against the United States “will be met with a force far greater than what was witnessed tonight.” Any signs of escalation could increase demand for safe-haven assets, such as Silver.
Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller said on Friday that the Fed is in a position to cut the policy rate as early as July. The dovish remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials provide some support for the white metal. Lower interest rates make silver cheaper for foreign buyers, increasing global demand.
On the other hand, renewed US Dollar (USD) demand might cap the upside of Silver. Investors await the preliminary reading of the US S&P Global PMI for June. If the US economic data came in stronger than expected, this could underpin the Greenback in the near term.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
Gold price closes in the bullish opening gap as sellers fight back control early Monday.
US Dollar strengthens on risk aversion due to the US involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict.
Gold price falls back to the critical 21-day SMA support at $3,351, with the bullish daily RSI.
Gold price has come under moderate selling pressure and reverts toward $3,350 early Monday, having faced rejection just shy of the $3,400 threshold.
Gold price awaits US PMIs, Fedspeak amid Middle East woes
In doing so, Gold price filled in the bullish opening gap of about $25, led by the market’s reaction to the weekend news of the US military involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict.
Early Sunday, US President Donald Trump announced that the United States (US) carried out airstrikes on three of Iran’s most critical nuclear sites, Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan.
In response, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei warned that American involvement would bring “irreparable damage.”
Markets fret over the Israel-Iran conflict translating into a wider Middle East regional war if Iran opts to retaliate with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which is the key passage of oil exports.
This nervousness has strengthened the haven demand for the US Dollar (USD), weighing on the USD-denominated Gold price.
Further, markets seem to believe that Iran may refrain from escalating the conflict by way of blocking the Strait of Hormuz even though its parliament has approved such a move.
This narrative appears to have reinforced selling in Oil prices, rendering negative for the inflation-hedge Gold price. Markets believed the Middle East escalation-driven surge in Oil price could stoke inflationary fears worldwide.
Attention now turns to the preliminary readings of S&P Global PMI data, especially from the Euro area and the US to gauge the health of the economies globally.
Downbeat data could rekindle global growth concerns, reviving the safe-haven appeal of the Gold price.
Additionally, if Iran retaliates firmly to the US bombing by accelerating its attacks on Israel and US bases, buyers could swing back in action amid investors’ run for cover in the ultimate traditional haven Gold price.
Speeches from several US Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers will also be closely scrutinized after the Fed’s hawkish hold policy decision last week.
Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart
The daily chart shows that Gold price is back to testing the critical short-term support of the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,351, breaching the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement (Fibo) level of the April record rally once again at $3,377.
A failure to resist above the 21-day SMA on a daily closing basis will open up a fresh downtrend toward the 50-day SMA at $3,321, below which the 38.2% Fibo level at $3,297 will be threatened.
That said, Gold buyers remain hopeful so long as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds above the midline. The leading indicator is currently pointing south, near 53.
If the bright metal stages a comeback, it will need acceptance above the mentioned support-turned-resistance at $3,377.
The next topside target is seen at $3,400, above which the static resistance at $3,440 will be tested.
Buyers will then take on the two-month highs of $3,453.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Gold price drifts higher to around $3,375 in Monday’s early Asian session.
The escalating tensions after the US bombed Iran’s nuclear sites have boosted the Gold price.
Fed’s Waller said the central bank is in position as early as July for cuts.
The Gold price (XAU/USD) climbs to near $3,375 during the early Asian session on Monday. US President Donald Trump’s decision to join Israel’s war against Iran sharply escalates the conflict, which lifts the precious metal. Traders will keep an eye on the preliminary reading of the US S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for June later on Monday.
The US carried out airstrikes on three nuclear sites in Iran early Sunday, directly entering Israel’s war with Iran despite Trump’s longtime promises to avoid new foreign conflicts. The escalating tensions after the US bombed Iran’s nuclear sites boost the safe-haven flows and benefit the Gold price, as it is traditionally considered a hedge during times of political and economic uncertainty.
Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller said on Friday that the Fed is in a position to cut the policy rate as early as July. The dovish remarks from the Fed officials could weigh on the Greenback and provide some support to the USD-denominated commodity price, as a weaker USD makes Gold cheaper for foreign buyers.
Investors brace for the preliminary reading of US S&P Global PMI for June. Any surprise upside in the US economic data could lift the USD and cap the upside for the yellow metal.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
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Silver (XAG/USD) drops for a third straight day, tracking profit-taking as geopolitical risk premium eases.
US President Donald Trump signals two-week window before deciding on possible US intervention in Iran–Israel crisis.
The price hovers near $36.00, supported by the 100-period moving average on the 4-hour chart, intraday low is at $35.51.
Silver (XAG/USD) remains under pressure for a third day in a row on Friday, retreating further after US President Donald Trump announced he would hold off for two weeks before deciding whether the US should step into the escalating Iran–Israel standoff. This pause has eased some of the geopolitical risk premium that recently fueled safe-haven flows into precious metals, prompting traders to book profits and reassess positions as investors digest the shifting geopolitical landscape.
At the time of writing, Silver is trading around $36.00 during the American trading hours, recovering modestly after easing from an intraday low of $35.51. The metal found some support near its 100-period Moving Average (MA) on the 4-hour chart, which is acting as a key cushion for prices amid the current pullback.
From a technical perspective, Silver has begun to show signs of weakness in its recent uptrend, suggesting a potential deeper pullback as momentum wanes. After enjoying a steady climb within a neat rising channel since early June, the metal has now slipped below the channel’s lower boundary, signaling that buyers are losing grip, at least in the short run.
Currently, Silver is hovering just above its 100-period moving average around $35.65, which has reliably cushioned price dips in recent weeks. This dynamic support will be the first line of defense for bulls.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to drift lower after flashing a clear bearish divergence, reinforcing signs that bullish momentum is fading. At the same time, the Rate of Change (ROC) has slipped into negative territory, further confirming that Silver’s recent upward drive has lost steam and that the door is now open for a broader corrective phase.
Looking ahead, a sustained move back above the broken channel and a decisive break above $36.50 would be needed to revive bullish momentum and expose the next resistance around $37.00–$37.30. On the flip side, if Silver fails to defend the 100-period MA and slides below $35.50, the metal could come under increased pressure, with the next meaningful support seen at $35.00 and then $34.50. For now, the near-term bias remains cautiously tilted to the downside unless buyers regain control above $36.50 with conviction.
Natural gas price confirmed its move to the bullish track by providing new closes above $3.920 level, which forms the extension of an important support, to notice resuming the bullish attack and its stability near 4.100.
The stability of stochastic within the overbought level will provide extra momentum to ease the mission of hitting the target at $4.150, note that breaching this level will reinforce the chances for recording new gains that might extend to 4.220.
The expected trading range for today is between $4.050 and $4.220
Copper price didn’t succeed in recording any new gains recently below 61.8%Fibonacci correction level at$4.8100, contradicting the bullish scenario, to notice forming sideways trading by its fluctuation near 4.7500.
Note that the stability of $4.6600 as extra support besides the continuation of providing positive momentum by the main indicators, these factors make us keep preferring the bullish scenario until reaching the initial target at $4.8900 and surpassing it will ease the mission of reaching the next stations at 5.0300.
The expected trading range for today is between $4.7000 and 4.8900
