• Gold price hits fresh seven-week highs and nears $3,450 early Friday.
• Israel-Iran geopolitical escalation lifts safe havens such as Gold, US Dollar and Treasuries.
• Gold price looks north after acceptance above $3,377, with the daily RSI bullish.

Gold price is gaining roughly 1.50% in Asian trading on Friday, underpinned by intense flight to safety amid escalating geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran.

Gold price looks to record highs at $3,500

Israel said earlier on that it attacked Iranian nuclear targets to block Tehran from developing atomic weapons.

Several Iranian media outlets now claim that Iran will declare a war on Israel and retaliate “soon.”

Iran’s Armed Forces General staff responded on Friday, warning that Israel and the US will “pay a very heavy price”.

Against this backdrop, US President Donald Trump has convened a meeting of the National Security Council in the White House situation room later in the day at 15 GMT.

Investors run for cover in the traditional safe-haven assets such as Gold price, the US Treasury bonds and the Japanese Yen (JPY) in times of market panic and uncertainty.

Therefore, the ultimate store of value, Gold price, is seeing unabated demand as it extends its winning streak into a third consecutive day on Friday, sitting at the highest level in seven weeks.

Gold buyers now aim for the record high of $3,500 if the Mid East conflict intensifies, with Iran initiating a harsh response to the Israeli pre-emptive strikes on Iran’s main enrichment facility in Natanz.

However, the strengthening haven demand for the US Dollar (USD) could impede Gold price rally.

Markets shrug off the latest trade headlines as geopolitics dominate alongside risk-off flows.

Reuters reported that tariffs on a range of imported household appliances, which are currently at 50% for most countries, would take effect on an additional range of “steel derivative products” on June 23. 

Looking ahead, all eyes will remain on Iran’s probable retaliation to the Israeli strikes and the US’ response to the Middle East conflict.

The University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations could play second fiddle to the geopolitical headlines.

Markets ramp up odds for a US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut in September following softer-than-expected US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data released earlier in the week.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

Having closed Thursday above the critical resistance at $3,377, the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement (Fibo) level of the April record rally, Gold price solidified its bullish momentum on Friday.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds firm above the midline, currently near 62, suggesting that there is more room for the upside. 

The next stiff resistance is spotted at the $3,450 psychological level, above which the lifetime high of $3,500 will be threatened.   

On the downside, the immediate support is aligned at the $3,400 threshold, below which the resistance-turned-support of the 23.6% Fibo level at $3,377 will come into play.

Deeper declines will likely challenge the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of $3,325.

XAU/USD Current price: $3,381.27

• Trade and geopolitical tensions sent the US Dollar Index to fresh multi-month lows.
• The University of Michigan will release The Consumer Sentiment index on Friday.
• XAU/USD advances for a second consecutive day and has room to extend the advance.

Fears pushed Gold towards the $3,400 level on Thursday, its highest for the week. Demand for the bright metal surged amid US Dollar’s (USD) sell-off, which dominated financial boards for most of the day.

The Greenback declined on Wednesday after the United States (US) President, Donald Trump, anticipated a trade deal with China was “done,” clarifying it was still subject to Chinese President Xi Jinping’s approval. Additionally, the country released the May Consumer Price Index (CPI), which resulted in softer than anticipated, fueling optimism about the state of the US economy.

The USD kept falling on Thursday amid rising Middle East tensions between Israel and Iran. Israel is preparing an operation against Iran, with the US expecting retaliatory measures, according to sources familiar with the matter. Additionally, nuclear talks between the US and Iran appeared to have halted. Trump used Truth Social to report that an Israeli strike could “very well happen,” adding that he would love to avoid conflict, but also that Iran has to negotiate toughly. He ended his post saying that there’s a chance of a massive conflict in the region.

Trade-war-related headlines added fuel to the fire: Trump said that he was willing to extend the July 8 deadline for completing trade talks, but also added that he is ready to impose unilateral tariffs within two weeks, to multiple trading counterparts.

On Friday, the focus will be on the preliminary estimate of the June University of Michigan’s (UoM) Consumer Sentiment Index. Market players will pay special attention to the one-year and five-year inflation expectations.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

Technically speaking, the XAU/USD pair has room to extend its advance beyond the $3,400 mark, which should lead to a rest of record highs in the near term. The daily chart shows the pair advanced at a moderate pace, with technical indicators aiming marginally higher within positive levels. At the same time, the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) gains upward traction above also bullish 100 and 200 SMAs, while providing dynamic support at around $3,318.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the XAU/USD pair is losing its bullish momentum. Technical indicators turned lower, easing within positive levels, as a result of the ongoing retracement. Additional losses, however, seem unlikely, given that moving averages extend their upward slopes below the current level, and with the 20 SMA accelerating north above the longer ones.

Support levels: 3,362.40 3,348.35 3,310.00

Resistance levels: 3,402.50 3,414.60 3,437.85

• Silver price gains traction to near $36.30 in Thursday’s early Asian session. 
• Cooler-than-expected CPI boosts Fed rate cut expectations. 
• Rising geopolitical risks could support the Silver price in the near term. 

The Silver price (XAG/USD) attracts some buyers to around $36.30, snapping the two-day losing streak during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. The weaker US Dollar (USD) and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East provide some support to the white metal. Traders will keep an eye on the US Producer Price Index (PPI) and weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which will be released later on Thursday. 

Softer-than-expected US inflation in May has prompted traders to raise their bets on a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut. This, in turn, drags the Greenback lower and lifts the USD-denominated commodity price. The CME FedWatch tool showed the markets have priced in nearly a 68% possibility that the US central bank would cut rates by 25 basis points (bps) by September, compared with 57% before the US CPI data. They now also see a still small but rising chance of an earlier rate cut, putting about an 18% odds of that happening in July versus about 13% earlier on Wednesday.

Reuters reported on Wednesday that the United States (US) is planning a partial evacuation of its Iraqi embassy and will allow military dependents to depart places around the Middle East, citing security risks in the region. Geopolitical risks could underpin the Silver price as investors seek more holdings in safe-haven assets.

On the other hand, White House envoy Steve Witkoff is scheduled to meet Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Muscat on Sunday and discuss the Iranian response to the recent US proposal, per Axios. Any positive developments surrounding a deal over the nuclear program between the US and Iran might cap the upside for the Silver. 

Fed Rate Cut Expectations Boost Gold Prices Forecast

Wednesday’s U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed inflation rose just 0.1% in May, below the 0.2% forecast. On a year-over-year basis, CPI increased 2.5%. The softer-than-expected data pushed the dollar index (DXY) down 0.3% to a two-month low, making gold more attractive to foreign buyers.

Markets are now pricing in at least 50 basis points of rate cuts this year, with traders assigning a 68% probability of a cut by September. Declining Treasury yields added fuel to gold’s rally, with the 10-year yield falling to 4.387% and the 2-year at 3.926%. Lower yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold.

Geopolitical Risk and Trade Tensions Add Safe-Haven Appeal

Geopolitical risk remains a supportive factor. U.S. President Donald Trump said U.S. personnel were being repositioned in the Middle East due to growing tensions with Iran, reaffirming that Iran would not be allowed to develop nuclear weapons. In parallel, U.S.-China trade negotiations made headlines after Trump confirmed a finalized deal that includes China supplying rare earth materials and the U.S. easing restrictions on Chinese students.

The trade agreement helped stabilize market sentiment, but underlying risks remain. Comments from Goldman Sachs suggested that if inflation remains subdued or the job market weakens, the Fed may be forced to ease monetary policy sooner than planned.

All Eyes on PPI as Gold Tests $3400 Barrier

Traders now await U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) data for confirmation of disinflation trends. A weaker-than-expected print could reinforce bets on Fed easing and push gold through key resistance.

Gold Price Outlook: Bullish Momentum Strengthens

Platinum price succeeded by forming extra bullish waves, to settle near 1275.00 level that formed the previously awaited main target, then forming sideways trading due to stochastic attempt to exit the overbought level as appears in the above image.

We expect the affection of the price by the sideways bias domination temporarily, but its stability above $1223.00, which forms new support against the bullish trading will increase the chances for gathering the positive momentum, to expect the attempt of targeting $1302.00 level, to form a new extra target for the current trading.

The expected trading range for today is between $1245.00 and $ 1302.00

Trend forecast: Bullish

Platinum price succeeded by forming extra bullish waves, to settle near 1275.00 level that formed the previously awaited main target, then forming sideways trading due to stochastic attempt to exit the overbought level as appears in the above image.

We expect the affection of the price by the sideways bias domination temporarily, but its stability above $1223.00, which forms new support against the bullish trading will increase the chances for gathering the positive momentum, to expect the attempt of targeting $1302.00 level, to form a new extra target for the current trading.

The expected trading range for today is between $1245.00 and $ 1302.00

Trend forecast: Bullish

• Silver retreats 0.87% as RSI signals overbought market conditions.
• US CPI miss boosts rate cut bets but fails to support metals.
• Key support lies at $36.00; upside targets remain near $37.50.

Silver price reverses course on Wednesday as the North American session ends, edging down 0.87%. Although US inflation eased in May, typically a signal that would support rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and weigh on the US Dollar, it failed to underpin the grey metal. XAG/USD is trading at $36.21.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

Despite retreating, XAG/USD remains poised to test higher prices. Momentum depicts that sellers stepped in as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) reached overbought territory. This, along with traders’ booking profits, sent Silver prices below $36.50, which, once cleared, opened the door towards $36.00.

A breach of the latter will expose $35.40, a high point from October 2012, which has since turned into support. Once surpassed, the next stop is $35.00, followed by the $34.00 and $33.00 figures,

On the other hand, if XAG/USD reclaimed $36.50, the next target is $37.00. On further strength, prices could reach 37.49, a 13-year high set on February 29.

XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily

• Gold price sits at fresh weekly highs, remains poised to test $3,400.
• The US Dollar extends declines amid trade uncertainties, renewed dovish Fed bets.  
• Gold price eyes acceptance above $3,377 yet again amid bullish daily technical setup.

Gold price is sitting at fresh weekly highs near the $3,380 neighborhood, building on the previous upswing early Thursday. Gold buyers closely eye the Middle East geopolitical tensions and the US Producer Price Index (PPI) data for a fresh leg north.  

Gold price cheers softer US Dollar, geopolitical woes

Amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, markets are slightly risk averse and prefer to flock to the traditional safe-haven Gold price.

According to CBS News senior White House reporter Jennifer Jacobs, United States (US) officials have been told Israel is fully ready to launch an operation into Iran.

“US anticipates Iran could retaliate on certain US sites in Iraq,” Jacobs added.

This comes as US President Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff is still planning to meet with Iran for a sixth round of talks on the country’s nuclear program on Sunday.

Bolstering the Gold price advance, the US Dollar (USD) extends the softer US inflation data-led decline and flirts with two-month lows against its major currency rivals.

The US Consumer Price Index i(CPI) increased 0.1% for the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 2.4%. Both prints undermined expectations of 0.2% and 2.5% respectively. Core figures also came in below estimates across the time horizons.

Tame US CPI data ramped up odds for a US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut in September, with markets now pricing in about a 62% probability of 25 basis points (bps) rate cut, per CME Group’s FedWatch tool, up from 52% seen pre-data release.

The latest downtick in the US Dollar is sponsored by the looming uncertainty surrounding Trump’s tariffs even as US-China trade tensions ease.

Trump said on Wednesday he would be willing to extend a July 8 deadline for completing trade talks with countries before higher US tariffs are imposed.

Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported late Wednesday that China is putting a six-month limit on rare-earth export licenses for US automakers and manufacturers.

The USD will likely remain defensive as markets try to make sense of the latest trade developments and its impact on the economic outlook.

However, hot US PPI inflation data could offer some respite to USD buyers, limiting the Gold price upside.

The US PPI is forecast to rise at an annual rate of 2.6% in May, following a 2.4% increase in April. The monthly PPI inflation is set to rebound to 0.2% in the same period. Core PPI is expected to rise 3.1% over the year and 0.3% on a monthly basis last month.

Also, of note will remain the simmering Israel-Iran geopolitical conflict and trade headlines, which could have a significant impact on the USD and hence, the bright metal.

Finally, it’s worth mentioning that record purchases by global central banks and rising prices have strengthened Gold’s position as the second biggest reserve holding in value terms, first being the USD, a report published by the European Central Bank (ECB) showed on Wednesday.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

The bullish outlook for Gold price in the short term has been solidified as buyers staged a solid reversal from the critical $3,297 level.  

That level is the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement (Fibo) level of the April record rally.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) points north above the midline, currently near 57.50, justifying the renewed upside.  

For a sustained uptrend, Gold price must find a foothold above the 23.6% Fibo resistance at $3,377 on a daily closing basis.

The next stiff resistance is spotted at the $3,400 mark, above which the May high of $3,439 will come into the picture.  

On the downside, the immediate support is aligned at the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of $3,315.

Gold sellers need a decisive break below the abovementioned strong support at $3,297 to challenge the 50-day SMA cushion at $3,279.

The last line of defense for buyers is aligned at $3,232, the 50% Fibo level of the same ascent.

50-Day Moving Average Provides a Guide

Although price levels indicated by the moving averages can provide a guide, they are not as reliable in a consolidating environment as seen recently. The higher swing low at $3.44 shows a potentially more significant price level as it is part of a possible CD leg of a developing rising ABCD pattern (purple). Given the downward pressure shown today, that price level is at risk of being broken.

Furthermore, weakness today triggered a breakdown below last week’s low of $3.50 and created a lower weekly low and lower high. Therefore, a daily close below $3.50 confirms the breakdown on a daily basis, while a potential weekly confirmation will have to wait until the end of day on Friday.

Weekly Breakdown Triggers

It is interesting to note that the past few weeks have shown a series of lower weekly highs on the weekly chart (not shown). That pattern occurred as natural gas was attempting to break above resistance established at the early-May swing high of $3.84. Now that a weekly low was busted, it provides another bearish indication but on the higher time frame. Moreover, there was a potentially bearish shooting start candlestick pattern generated two weeks ago. The pattern suggested potential difficulty in exceeding the $3.84 high as well.

Lower Price Levels

If natural gas falls below today’s low and then the $3.44 low, it looks likely to head for a test of support around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $3.38. That is also close to the weekly opening price two weeks ago.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

XAU/USD Current price: $3,330.35

• Speculative interest welcomed softer-than-anticipated US inflation figures.
• US President Donald Trump claimed a trade deal with China is “done.”
• XAU/USD extends its consolidative phase, buyers willing to add on dips.

Gold is in consolidative mode on Wednesday, hovering around the $3,300 level in the mid-American session. The XAU/USD pair peaked at $3,360.72 following some interesting headlines coming from the United States (US).

On the one hand, US President Donald Trump used Truth Social to announce that the US relationship with China is “excellent,” adding that the trade deal is done but subject to Xi’s approval. On the other hand, inflation in the country, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by less than anticipated in May, up by 0.1% on a monthly basis and by 2.4% from a year earlier vs the expected 0.2% and 2.5% respectively.

The US Dollar (USD) fell with the combined headlines, pushing the bright metal towards the mentioned high, yet the same optimistic news sent investors into riskier assets, to the detriment of XAU/USD.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, the daily chart for the XAU/USD pair shows it remains little changed for a third consecutive day. The pair keeps holding above a mildly bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), providing dynamic support at around $3,310. At the same time, the 100 and 200 SMAs extend their advances below the shorter one, in line with the dominant bullish trend and despite the limited momentum. Finally, technical indicators are stuck around their midlines without clear directional strength, reflecting the ongoing consolidation.

The 4-hour chart gives no clear directional clues. The XAU/USD pair is resting just above a bearish 20 SMA (Simple Moving Average), which converges with a mildly bullish 100 SMA. The 200 SMA, in the meantime, maintains its modest downward slope below the shorter ones. Finally, technical indicators head nowhere within neutral levels, reflecting the absence of a clear directional trend.

Support levels: 3,312.00 3,300.00 3,287.45

Resistance levels: 3,349.50 3,361.95 3,375.80