• Gold price hits fresh weekly lows below $3,300 early Friday.
• The US Dollar firms up on US-UK trade deal, profit-taking ahead of US-China trade talks.
• Gold price needs a daily close below 21-day SMA at $3,307 to negate near-term bullish bias.

Gold price is flirting with weekly lows below $3,300 early Friday as the US Dollar (USD) stands tall on renewed optimism on the US trade deals front.

Gold price keenly awaits US-China trade talks

The US Dollar stands tall against its major currency rivals as worries over a potential US economic downturn ease following the announcement of a “breakthrough deal” by US President Donald Trump and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer on Thursday.

The US-UK trade deal raised hopes that US trade agreements with other countries are in the offing, especially as the US and China begin their first high-level trade talks in Switzerland on Saturday.

 US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chief Trade Negotiator Jamieson Greer will meet with China’s Vice Premier, He Lifeng, over the weekend.

The revival of the King Dollar has exerted downward pressure on the Gold price, but it remains to be seen if sellers can retain control in the day ahead. Markets may likely take profits off the table on their USD and Gold positions as the looming US-China trade risks approach.

Investors could also see bargain hunting in the bright metal as geopolitical risks globally remain elevated. FXStreet’s Analyst Haresh Menghani said, “Russia and Ukraine both reported attacks on their forces on the first day of a three-day unilateral ceasefire called by Russian President Vladimir Putin,”

“Furthermore, Israel’s escalation with Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen and fears of a broader military conflict along the India-Pakistan border keep geopolitical risks in play,” Haresh added.

Adding to this, a hit to the Chinese trade balance in April due to the probable impact of US tariffs could also bode well for the traditional safe haven. Meanwhile, China’s expansion to its Gld reserves for the sixth straight month also serves in the interest of Gold buyers.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

Gold price fell sharply after facing rejection once again above the $3,400 barrier. In doing so, Gold price has breached the critical 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,306.

However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has stalled its descent while defending the midline, suggesting that a rebound could be in the offing.

Gold price needs to recapture the $3,400 mark, above which buyers must establish a firm foothold above the two-week high of $3,440. The next topside target is at the record high of $3,500. 

On the downside, Gold sellers yearn for a daily closing below the 21-day SMA at $3,306, which could negate any bullish potential in the near term, opening up a fresh downtrend toward the 50-day SMA at $3,129.

Ahead of that, the static support at $3,260 and the May 2 low of $3,223 will be challenged.

Weekly Bullish Signal

Moreover, a weekly bull trend continuation signal triggered earlier this week, and it will be confirmed on that time frame with a close today above last week’s high of $3.67. Price behavior in one time frame can impact the patterns in a lower time frame. This is the basis of multi time frame analysis. Therefore, especially with a strong close above $3.75, the price of natural gas will show strong bullish momentum. It will be needed as it is rising into a consolidation top in the form of a head and shoulders pattern.

Aggressive Buying on the Way Up

Bullish implications of the developing advance, as seen in the daily chart, include two brief pullbacks of only one day before the uptrend reasserted itself. And in each case the pullback was relatively shallow. Now that a new high for the advance has been reached, those shallow pullbacks that represent sustained bullish momentum suggest a continuation of the rally.

Next Target $3.95

A rise above a minor interim swing high of $3.83 will provide the next sign of strength along with an advance above today’s high of $3.82. The next upside target would then be the 78.6% retracement level at $3.95. Keep in mind that as the trend continues to rise the risk of a sharper pullback increases. Given the current conditions, it looks like the 78.6% price zone is that next area where the chance of a bearish correction increases. The lower swing high that generated a right shoulder for the head and shoulders pattern is at $4.25. It represents the more significant potential resistance zone as a rise above it will provide a bullish reversal signal.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) lowered its West Texas Intermediate (WTI) spot average price forecasts for 2025 and 2026 in its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released on May 6.

According to that STEO, the EIA now sees the WTI spot price averaging $61.81 per barrel this year and $55.24 per barrel next year. In its previous STEO, which was released in April, the EIA projected that the WTI spot price would average $63.88 per barrel in 2025 and $57.48 per barrel in 2026. Both STEOs highlighted that the WTI spot price came in at $76.60 per barrel in 2024.

The EIA’s latest STEO forecast that the WTI spot price will average $60.85 per barrel in the second quarter of 2025, $58 per barrel in the third quarter, $57 per barrel in the fourth quarter, $56 per barrel across the first and second quarters of next year, $55 per barrel in the third quarter, and $54 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026. This STEO pointed out that the WTI spot price averaged $71.85 per barrel in the first quarter of 2025.

In its April STEO, the EIA projected that the WTI spot price would come in at $62.33 per barrel in the second quarter of 2025, $61.67 per barrel in the third quarter, $60 per barrel in the fourth quarter, $59 per barrel in the first quarter of 2026, $58 per barrel in the second quarter, $57 per barrel in the third quarter, and $56 per barrel in the fourth quarter. This STEO also highlighted that the WTI spot price averaged $71.85 per barrel in the first quarter of 2025.

Back in its March STEO, the EIA forecast that the WTI spot price average would come in at $70.68 per barrel in 2025 and $64.97 per barrel in 2026. That STEO also highlighted that the 2024 WTI spot price averaged $76.60 per barrel.

In a Standard Chartered Bank report sent to Rigzone by the company’s commodities research head, Paul Horsnell, late Tuesday, Standard Chartered forecast that the NYMEX WTI basis nearby future crude oil price will average $58 per barrel in 2025, $75 per barrel in 2026, and $80 per barrel in 2027.

That report showed that Standard Chartered sees the commodity coming in at $50 per barrel in the second quarter of this year, $49 per barrel in the third quarter, $62 per barrel in the fourth quarter, $68 per barrel in the first quarter of 2026, $73 per barrel in the second quarter, and $78 per barrel in the third quarter.

A research note sent to Rigzone by the JPM Commodities Research team on May 3 showed that J.P. Morgan expected the WTI crude price to average $62 per barrel in 2025 and $54 per barrel in 2026.

In that research note, J.P. Morgan projected that the commodity will average $63 per barrel in the second quarter of this year, $59 per barrel in the third quarter, $57 per barrel in the fourth quarter, $51 per barrel in the first quarter of next year, $53 per barrel across the second and third quarters of 2026, and $56 per barrel in the fourth quarter.

In a BMI report sent to Rigzone by the Fitch Group on Friday, BMI projected that the front month WTI crude price will average $65 per barrel in 2025 and $68 per barrel in 2026.

In a Stratas Advisors report sent to Rigzone by the Stratas team late Monday, the company highlighted that “the price of WTI ended the [previous] week at $58.29 [per barrel] after closing the previous week at $63.02 [per barrel].

To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com

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The largest banking group in the Netherlands, ING Group, has revised its forecast for the average price of Brent crude oil in 2025, lowering it from $70 to $65 per barrel.

Report informs, citing ING, that the decision comes amid worsening supply-demand balance in the global oil market.

According to ING data, in Q1 2025, the average price of Brent was $75 per barrel, but a decline is expected going forward: it will drop to $64 per barrel in Q2, $62 in Q3, and $59 in Q4 per barrel.

The bank’s analytical report notes that the price drop is caused by a combination of weak demand and changes in OPEC+ policies.

“Demand issues caused by uncertainty in tariff policy are exacerbated by OPEC+ shifting its focus from price support to market share protection,” the document states.

According to ING, OPEC+ announced an accelerated return of production volumes: in June alone, it plans to increase supply by 411,000 barrels per day. Initially, the group aimed to return 2.2 million barrels per day to the market over 18 months, but now nearly 1 million barrels per day may be restored in just three months. If this pace continues, the entire volume (2.2 million barrels) will be returned by the end of Q3, a year ahead of schedule, the report notes.

ING associates this move with internal disagreements within the OPEC+ cartel: “The accelerated production recovery has led to an oversupply, which is putting pressure on prices. This was the primary reason for the revision of the 2025 forecast. Additional price pressure is confirmed by the shape of the forward curve—most contracts for 2025 are trading in contango (future prices higher than current ones). This indicates expectations of further supply growth and weak demand.”

According to the report, another variable remains the behavior of OPEC+: “It is unclear how long the group will stick to the current strategy before returning to market stabilization measures.”

ING also draws attention to possible budgetary consequences for major producers. For instance, Saudi Arabia needs around $90 per barrel for a balanced budget. With current prices, the country may face an increase in its budget deficit.

Similarly, for US producers, profitable drilling of new wells becomes difficult: according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, they need a price of about $65 per barrel, while WTI is trading below $60. This could lead to a reduction in drilling activity in the U.S. and cast doubt on production growth in 2025–2026, analysts say.

According to updated data from ING, further price declines are expected in 2026: in Q1, it will be $58 per barrel, in Q2, $56, in Q3, $58, and in Q4, $54 per barrel.

Thus, the bank estimates that the average annual price of Brent in 2026 will be $57 per barrel.

The EURJPY pair provided a positive signal by its rally above the barrier at 163.25, to record some gains by hitting the 163.90 level, to provide sideways trading to gather the positive momentum again.

We will depend on forming a new support base at 162.65 level, note that the attempt of surpassing 50 level will increase the chances for forming bullish waves, to expect reaching 164.20, to repeat the pressure on the resistance at 164.90.

The expected trading range for today is between 163.00 and 164.20

Trend forecast: Bullish

The (GBPUSD) price declined in its recent intraday trading, breaking the critical support level at 0.3260, which represents a neckline for clear negative formation on the short-term basis – the triple top pattern, which reverses the previous bullish trend. This break is considered as a strong technical signal for turning the price behavior, supporting the continuation of the dominant bearish correctional wave on the price.

This negative performance comes amid the continuation of the negative pressures, with the stability of the price below EMA50, besides the emergence of the negative signals on the (RSI), despite its stability below 0.3260, to target the support at 1.3160.

Dynamic Resistance at 20-Day MA

Since the sharp drop on April 3, the 20-Day MA has defined dynamic resistance of the near-term downtrend. Recently, the 20-Day line was tested as resistance twice during an initial counter-trend rally and it was followed by an accelerated decline. A second counter trend rally began from Monday’s low of $55.81 and looks like it is poised to reach the 20-Day line at a minimum.

Given the recent history resistance is expected to be seen once first approached. But if strength in the price of crude oil can be maintained there is a chance of an upside breakout. A rally above the 20-Day line would show strength but a confirmed breakout would need a daily close above that line.

Lower Swing Low Established

Monday’s low established a higher swing low, and it was accompanied by a higher swing low in the relative strength index (RSI). Nonetheless, crude oil is rising inside a bear trend on multiple time frames. Whether it can continue to rise depends on the behavior around key potential resistance levels. The first being the 20-Day MA. After that, there are several minor price levels of interest until last week’s high of $64.06, which was a lower weekly high.

Short Term Bullish

The developing weekly pattern in crude oil is bullish and may reflect downside exhaustion. Bullish behavior was also seen in the weekly candle at the prior bottom of $55.23 in early April. Regardless, a period a consolidation is also a possibility as overall volatility could begin to diminish if crude oil continues to test the lows as support and it stays below the 20-Day MA.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

• Silver capped by 50-day SMA at $32.68 despite intraday high of $32.93; RSI turns flat near neutral.
• Break above $33.00 could open path to $33.68 and $34.00; downside risk below $32.22 targets $31.80 and $31.19.
• Market sentiment buoyed by US-UK trade deal and hopes of de-escalation in US-China relations ahead of weekend talks.

Siver price held firm on Thursday as risk appetite improved on news of a US-UK trade deal, along with hopes that Sino-US tensions could be lowered, as delegations of both countries would meet in Switzerland this weekend. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades at $32.44, down 0.15%.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

Silver price is trading below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $32.68, a key technical resistance level that capped the metal’s advance despite hitting a daily high of $32.93. Momentum shows the lack of commitments of buyers and sellers as portrayed by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which hovers near its 50 neutral line, turning flat. That said, XAG/USD would likely remain sideways in the short term.

For a bullish continuation, XAG/USD must clear the 50-day SMA and the $33.00 figure. Once achieved, the next ceiling level will be an April 25 daily high at $33.68, followed by $34.00. Conversely, if Silver slides beneath $32.22, look for a test of the 100-day SMA at $31.80, ahead of the 200-day SMA at $31.19.

XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily

Resistance Zone Retained

Before the bull trend can go higher it first needs to break out from the resistance zone that stopped the ascent on Monday and then again today. Resistance was seen at the $3.75 high on Monday, which led to a short one-day pullback that found support around the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Strength returned quickly with positive gains on Wednesday and a continuation higher today. The bearish response following another test of the resistance zone earlier in today’s session further confirms the resistance zone. What happens next should provide clues.

Drop Below $3.53 May Lead Lower

A decline below today’s low of $3.53 is short-term bearish and increases the chance for a test of this week’s low at $3.42 and possibly dropping below that level. The key 20-Day MA is now at $3.31. If a deeper pullback comes, that line is likely to be tested. If support is seen at or above the 20-Day line, natural gas has a chance of continuing higher.

Given the significance of the resistance zone a deeper pullback before another breakout attempt would be healthy for the rally. Nonetheless, an earlier breakout to new trend highs would be bullish. But the upside may be limited as during the advance the price of natural gas rose by $0.90 or 31.1% as of Monday’s high.

Keep Eye on 50-Day Moving Average Resistance

The 50-Day MA, now at $3.75, has been falling and has converged with the high from Monday. There is the neckline of a head and should topping pattern at $3.74 and the AVWAP from the top of the trend is at $3.73. An upside trend breakout would be signaled on a rise above $3.75, the top of the resistance zone. Until then, natural gas can be anticipated to consolidate or continue the bearish pullback.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.